Most Read

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a “Vision” instead.
Today post-close, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (Japanese) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before.
AEON obviously really did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced a partial tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.
Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit.
The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake.

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Q&A With The FA

On the 28th October, ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.
The consortium offered HK$12.18/share, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed. A special dividend was bolted on. All pre-cons, including SAMR’s approval, have been satisfied. Scheme Doc dispatch expected on/before 31st December.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and yesterday pinned down a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.

Korea’s 4th Policy Trade Is Right Around the Corner: Mandatory Tender Offers

The next policy swing is mandatory tender offers (MTO), with the gov’t + ruling party pushing for passage this session, likely alongside the mandatory treasury-share cancellation.
2022 FSS/FSC 50%+1 trigger scrapped; 25% stays. Ruling party favors 50%+ MTO, base case 100%, but pushback may reduce to 70–80%.
MTOs tighten discounts, benefit minority holders; focus on local holding firms, PE-backed exits, and parent-driven M&A prospects.

StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More

At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy‘s words: “Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise.”
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2025. Some of the major M&A tender offers in 2025 include HMM, Kolon Mobility Group, and VIOL.
The tender offers have mostly been profitable for the investors in these targeted companies (especially those shareholders who owned these shares prior to the tender offer announcement).
What is also impressive is that even after the 1st day of trading (post tender offer announcement), there have been extra alpha for the following week.

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Dec 03

Most Read: XD Inc., Tsuruha Holdings, ICICI Bank Ltd, Quanta Computer, Genting Malaysia, UltraGreen.AI, Xiaomi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share
NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches
HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded
Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900
UltraGreen.ai IPO Trading: Attractive Pricing, Strong Tailwinds
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.
Alibaba Pictures, East Buy Holding, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, XD Inc. and CaoCao (2643 HK) will be added, while iQIYI Inc (IQ US) will be deleted.
Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a “Vision” instead.
Today post-close, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (Japanese) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before.
AEON obviously really did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower.

NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches

NSE Indices has announced the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) that will be implemented in 4 tranches starting in December.
Yes Bank (YES IN) and Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) will be added to the index to increase the number of constituents from 12 to 14.
Passives need to sell HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) while buying all the other stocks in the index.

HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.
Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.
Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded

Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s unconditional Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) closed yesterday, the 1st December, with GENT holding 73.13%, up from 49.99% initially.
The IFA previously opined the Offer to be NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. A bump in terms, long rumoured, failed to unfold.
Yesterday, GENM was one of three applicants selected by New York’s Gaming Facility Location Board for a full commercial casino license in downtown New York.

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced a partial tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.
Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit.
The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake.

UltraGreen.ai IPO Trading: Attractive Pricing, Strong Tailwinds

By Hong Jie Seow

UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) raised around US$400m in its Singapore IPO.
UltraGreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.

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Dec 02

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Dundee Precious Metals , Kuang-Chi Technologies , XD Inc., Tsuruha Holdings, Dawning Information Industry C, Canon Electronics, Delfi Ltd, African Gold Ltd, 3SBio Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade
[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies
Delfi : Consumer Company with Reasonable Valuations
African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)
3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.
The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO’s Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade

There are 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) with implementation taking place at the close on 12 December.
Nearly all the changes are in line with forecasts. Jiangsu Zhongtian Technologies Co, Ltd. (600522 CH) is the one surprise addition.
The adds outperformed the deletes and the CSI300 from June-September but have given back a chunk of the gains since then. Expect positioning to build over the next few days.

KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.
Alibaba Pictures, East Buy Holding, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, XD Inc. and CaoCao (2643 HK) will be added, while iQIYI Inc (IQ US) will be deleted.
Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

There are 4 constituent changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH) is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH).
The SSE50 Index adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.

[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies

Friday post-close, parent Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a buyout of subsidiary Canon Electronics (7739 JP). The ¥3,650/share offer is supported and recommended (to shareholders) by Target Co management.
This is the least surprising of parent-subsidiary buyout situations, but it took some time. I expect there are some funds already long a basket of these, including this one.
This is not a very fair procedure. The result is therefore, unfair. And no synergies to boot. But it is a 30+% premium to last, and Canon already owns 55%.

Delfi : Consumer Company with Reasonable Valuations

By Punit Khanna

Number 1 chocolate company in Indonesia with own brands like SilverQueen, Ceres etc. The company also distributes third party brands across South Asia.
Cocoa prices have halved from their recent peak but still they are higher than historical average
Stock trades at reasonable multiple to its 2023 earnings when cocoa prices were stable

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All proceeds from the publication of this report will be donated to support people with disabilities in Singapore. If you find this report valuable, we invite you to support our campaign, “Raising Money for Persons with Disabilities in Singapore.” Every contribution directly benefits the Goh Chok Tong Enable Fund and qualifies for a 250% tax deduction for Singapore tax residents.

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African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play.
Junior miner African Gold (A1G AU)has entered into a Scheme with Montage Gold (MAU CN). African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.
That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.

3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal

By Nicholas Tan

3SBio Inc (1530 HK) is looking to raise around US$400m from a primary placement.
The deal is a small one, representing 2.9 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 3.9% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Dec 01

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Dundee Precious Metals , Toyoda Gosei, Kuang-Chi Technologies , SBI Shinsei Bank, Dawning Information Industry C, ANE Cayman Inc, Canon Electronics, Toyota Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
HEW: Slow Shovels
Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): The Current Playbook
CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
Weekly Deals Digest (30 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, JDI, ANE, Canon Electronics, Digital, Mandom, NSR, Qube
SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade
ANE (9956 HK): Precondition Satisfied
[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.
The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO’s Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

HEW: Slow Shovels

UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the announcement of the US$0.8 billion secondary offering, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s shares have declined 4.9% to the undisturbed price of JPY3,754 per share (20 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Toyoda’s share decline is better than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 1 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade

There are 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) with implementation taking place at the close on 12 December.
Nearly all the changes are in line with forecasts. Jiangsu Zhongtian Technologies Co, Ltd. (600522 CH) is the one surprise addition.
The adds outperformed the deletes and the CSI300 from June-September but have given back a chunk of the gains since then. Expect positioning to build over the next few days.

Weekly Deals Digest (30 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, JDI, ANE, Canon Electronics, Digital, Mandom, NSR, Qube

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), NS Group (471A JP), JD Industrial Technology (2231713D CH) IPOs, and Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s US$0.8 billion secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), Canon Electronics (7739 JP), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU).

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

There are 4 constituent changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH) is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH).
The SSE50 Index adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.

ANE (9956 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for the consortium’s privatisation offer for ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has been satisfied. The right to increase the share alternative cap was also satisfied.
The consortium has until 12 December to decide whether to increase the share cap. The option helps the consortium gain support from shareholders who would not accept the cash offer.
The scheme vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. The de-rating of peers is also helpful.

[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies

Friday post-close, parent Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a buyout of subsidiary Canon Electronics (7739 JP). The ¥3,650/share offer is supported and recommended (to shareholders) by Target Co management.
This is the least surprising of parent-subsidiary buyout situations, but it took some time. I expect there are some funds already long a basket of these, including this one.
This is not a very fair procedure. The result is therefore, unfair. And no synergies to boot. But it is a 30+% premium to last, and Canon already owns 55%.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

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Nov 30

Most Read: Tata Capital Limited, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Teco Electric & Machinery, Yum China Holdings , Innovent Biologics Inc, Daehan Shipbuilding, Tsuruha Holdings, Zijin Gold, Dynamatic Technologies, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation
Hong Kong: IPO SPOTLIGHT – OVERVIEW 2025
The Beat Ideas: Dynamatic Technologies – An Indian Tier-1 Supplier’s Flight Path in Global Aerospace
CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook After Nov. 28 Rebalance Announcement

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

Hong Kong: IPO SPOTLIGHT – OVERVIEW 2025

By David Mudd

Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far. Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings. With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.

The Beat Ideas: Dynamatic Technologies – An Indian Tier-1 Supplier’s Flight Path in Global Aerospace

By Nimish Maheshwari

The structural shift in Dynamatic Technologies’ revenue mix is accelerating, with the high-margin Aerospace segment now contributing 82% of consolidated EBITDA in FY25, underpinned by major new contract industrialization.
The premium valuation is justified by its annuity-like, high-barrier sole-supplier status for the Airbus A320 family and significant new program wins (Airbus A220 doors), providing a multi-decade visibility.
DTL’s core value is increasingly diverging from its legacy segments; success hinges on efficient capital deployment in India and mitigating the persistent drag from its European Metallurgy business.

CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook After Nov. 28 Rebalance Announcement

By Nico Rosti

On November 28th China Securities Index Co (CSI) announced the changes to the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX): 11 companies added and 11 deleted.
The complete list of additions and deletions is available here (or see the attachment at the end of this insight for your convenience).
We analyze our probabilistic models to forecast short-term market directions for the CSI 300 Index, as passive flows between here and December 12 may affect the index volatility and trend.

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Nov 29

Most Read: Teco Electric & Machinery, Toyoda Gosei, LG Corp, Daehan Shipbuilding, Bengo4.Com Inc, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Suzhou Novosense Microelectron, Tata Capital Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
UK Backloads A Tax Trap
[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs
Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak
HEW: Slow Shovels
Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

UK Backloads A Tax Trap

The UK’s fiscal hole was even smaller than we thought (£6bn), allowing the government to backload a fiscal tightening that is unsurprisingly focused on tax increases.
Delaying prudence to an election year is implausible. There will be a substantial deficit in 2029-30, not the current budget surplus in the OBR forecasts based on existing policy.
Labour is setting up a tax trap for Reform and the Conservatives to say how they’d avoid tax increases, similar to the backloaded spending cuts they myopically ignored in 2024.

[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs

Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; <100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
Companies >5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.

Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak

By Sumeet Singh

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

HEW: Slow Shovels

UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) went public on 13 October 2025 on NSE and has a current market cap of over $15bn.
Partial inclusion in Global indices is expected in June 2026, as the security fails the float cap threshold in one Global index.
Free float is projected to increase incrementally following lock-up expiries of anchor investors and pre-offer shareholders.

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Nov 28

Most Read: Toyoda Gosei, Daehan Shipbuilding, Kioxia Holdings , Bengo4.Com Inc, Digital Holdings Inc, Mandom Corp, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation
[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle
Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation

By Rahul Jain

Q2 results confirmed a clear earnings inflection, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand, improving ASPs, and recovering smartphone NAND volumes.
Q3 guidance signals record revenue and further margin expansion supported by tight NAND supply and AI-linked storage demand.
Despite near-term pressure from Bain’s selldown, long-term fundamentals remain intact; valuation discounts justify a ¥12,500 target and accumulate-on-weakness stance.

[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges

SilverCape has increased its tender offer price for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) by 2.9% to JPY2,450 and raised the minimum tendering condition to 6.8 million shares (36.61% ownership ratio).
The SilverCape hostile offer faces twin challenges: preventing completion of the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) offer and gaining the Board’s support/stopping the implementation of countermeasures.
SilverCape’s revised terms are unlikely to address these challenges. While Hakuhodo may (again) revise its offer, I expect the bump to be marginal (less than 5%).

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%

Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%.
Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender.
With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.

[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP).
SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…

Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle

FSC confirms December rollout; beyond procedural cleanup, this structural shift in flows brings small-to-mid shops and offshore retail, creating new order patterns in the local market.
Omnibus accounts aggregate orders under one broker, blurring classic smart-money signals, slowing local retail follow-ons, and creating wider price-action gaps in the order book.
MSCI volatility trades also require attention; the omnibus rollout will likely intensify flows as new accounts follow major institutions, impacting the Korea sleeve short-term.

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror’s parent entity.
The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.

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Nov 27

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Kioxia Holdings , Teco Electric & Machinery, Toyoda Gosei, Daehan Shipbuilding, National Storage REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?
Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
UK Backloads A Tax Trap
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?

After the close today, BCPE Pangea Cayman announced plans to sell a stake of 36mm shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in an overnight block. It trades tomorrow.
This is 6.7% of shares out, 1.5x ADV. The discount is 7-9%. But it is 35% of Max Real World Float. And probably gets tradable shares to 34+%, not 35%.
That means another offering is likely near-term. The lockup is only 30 days it appears. There is possibly a fair bit of long-dated index demand.

Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

UK Backloads A Tax Trap

The UK’s fiscal hole was even smaller than we thought (£6bn), allowing the government to backload a fiscal tightening that is unsurprisingly focused on tax increases.
Delaying prudence to an election year is implausible. There will be a substantial deficit in 2029-30, not the current budget surplus in the OBR forecasts based on existing policy.
Labour is setting up a tax trap for Reform and the Conservatives to say how they’d avoid tax increases, similar to the backloaded spending cuts they myopically ignored in 2024.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Brookfield and GIC at A$2.86 per unit, a 26.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 7 December. A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB, NZ OIO and ACCC approval.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and implies a P/NTA of 1.11x. The short exclusivity period increases the odds of a binding proposal.

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Nov 26

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Yum China Holdings , Kioxia Holdings , Iress Ltd, Teco Electric & Machinery, Dear Life and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Kioxia IPO Lockup Expiry – US$6.7bn Release, with Shareholders Eager to Sell
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown
[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?
Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
Kioxia Placement – US$2bn Deal, Relatively Small, Index Upweight but the Shares Have Runup
Iress (IRE AU): Suitors Engaged, But (Still) Nothing Firm
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
[Japan Offering] Dear Life (3245 JP) – Unusual Offer Dynamics Are Bullish Despite Dilution

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Kioxia IPO Lockup Expiry – US$6.7bn Release, with Shareholders Eager to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges.

[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?

After the close today, BCPE Pangea Cayman announced plans to sell a stake of 36mm shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in an overnight block. It trades tomorrow.
This is 6.7% of shares out, 1.5x ADV. The discount is 7-9%. But it is 35% of Max Real World Float. And probably gets tradable shares to 34+%, not 35%.
That means another offering is likely near-term. The lockup is only 30 days it appears. There is possibly a fair bit of long-dated index demand.

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

Kioxia Placement – US$2bn Deal, Relatively Small, Index Upweight but the Shares Have Runup

By Sumeet Singh

Bain aims to raise around US$2bn via selling around 6% of its stake in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP). The IPO linked lockup on its shareholding had expired in Jun 2025.
Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
In this note, we will talk about deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Iress (IRE AU): Suitors Engaged, But (Still) Nothing Firm

The board of Iress Ltd (IRE AU), a trading and wealth management software provider, has denied reports in an Australian article concerning a possible takeover from Blackstone.
The article said that Blackstone was reportedly back in talks for a bid “that could be worth between $11 and $12 per share“. Iress’ share price promptly popped 8% yesterday.
Iress is still very much in play as it “continues to engage with multiple parties“.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

[Japan Offering] Dear Life (3245 JP) – Unusual Offer Dynamics Are Bullish Despite Dilution

Today after the close, Tokyo-based Dear Life (3245 JP) announced a primary offering to raise approximately ¥7bn through 15% dilution. Implying a 13+% price drop to protect PER.
But the company plans on growing earnings. It has some projects in inventory, but it obviously plans a lot of turnover this year and needs to replenish.
The MTMP “slogan” is “2028 – Ride the Wave!” This is a bit what investing in Tokyo real estate is like now. So one rides it until one doesn’t.

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Nov 25

Most Read: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Yum China Holdings , Innovent Biologics Inc, Pan Pacific International Holdings, LOTTE Corporation, Qube Holdings, Gabia Inc, Smec Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
UK Labour Party: Damned If They Do…
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added
Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind
Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal
Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20
A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management
SNT Group – Formalizes a Hostile Takeover of SMEC

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

UK Labour Party: Damned If They Do…

By Alastair Newton

Whatever Rachel Reeves comes up with in her 26 November budget, she is bound to run into criticism from within her own parliamentary party.
Bond markets seem set to react badly to this, especially if it seems likely that her overall objectives will be undermined by internal resistance to proposed measures.
She and the PM will probably survive this, but a market-unsettling change and slide to the left look increasingly likely by mid-2026, followed by defeat at the next election.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago.
As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.

Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal

The proposed bill fully closes the treasury-share loopholes, bans all exchangeable/pledge uses, blocks M&A allocations, and imposes strict cancellation deadlines—1 year for new buys, 6 months for existing.
The amendment tightens disposal rules: no cancellation means pro-rata sales to existing shareholders only, shutting down selective deals and closing the wide-open disposal gap under current law.
The proposal is far tougher than expected, likely to become the final version, and should drive a near-term mandatory-cancel narrative and notable price action in governance-sensitive holding-co names.

Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20