Most Read

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve

By Sanghyun Park

If the three non-IT names exit IT, passive flows hit hard: SK Square/LG Electronics ~0.4× DTV out, LG Corp ~0.8× DTV out, new IT entrants ~0.2–0.25× DTV in.
If KRX surprises next Tuesday, kicking three names from IT, expect immediate tape reaction—market memory exists, but the scenario isn’t priced, unlike 2023 Kakaopay, so instant price impact is likely.
If this happens, June 11 turns into a chunky basket-flow day: SK Square (~15% weight) out, next-tier caps see ~0.15–0.2× DTV inflow, except ultra-liquid names like Hanmi Semi.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV

As forecast, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) will replace Tata Motors (TTMT IN) in the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) after the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 3.6-7.7x ADV in the stocks and that increases significantly to 7.1-12x delivery volume.
There are indications that positioning has built up in both stocks over the last few weeks. However, in both cases, positioning is expected to be smaller than the passive selling.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light.

[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal

In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet & Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
By Quiddity calculations based on the 21 November close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$26.14bn (approximately), to trade on 5 December at the close.

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion, and Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s US$0.8 billion secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), Webjet Group (WJL AU).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 23

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Ping An Healthcare and Technology, China Hongqiao, Tata Capital Limited, Isupetasys, OliX Pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng Index, LG Corp, CRH , Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 16 Changes a Side; Fadu a Casualty Yet Again
HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon
HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 16 Changes a Side; Fadu a Casualty Yet Again

There will be 16 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
Making use of their discretionary powers, the index committee has not added Wonik Holdings Co., Ltd (030530 KS), Samhyun (437730 KS) and Fadu (440110 KS) to the index.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index over the last 6 months and there has been a short-term move higher too. Watch out for short covering.

HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

As Brian Freitas recently outlined, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) changes will be announced November 21st (this Friday) and take effect on December 6th.
Brian predicted index additions and no deletions. As with all rebalances, inflows, outflows, and adjustments could trigger volatility. Our models, trained on decades of market data, help forecast these moves.
Currently the HSI INDEX is in a mild WEEKLY correction, after a previous modest 2-week rally. We are still waiting for a meaningful correction, after the recent monster rally.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

By Sanghyun Park

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 22

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tata Capital Limited, DeNA, SBI Shinsei Bank, 3SBio Inc, Kioxia Holdings , LG Corp, UltraGreen.ai, Alliance Laundry Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.
The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge
HEW: Micro Risk Off
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding
US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%

On 20 October, Murakami Group reported they’d gone over 5% in cash/asset-rich DeNA (2432 JP). Not easy with insiders+Crossholders at 39%, passive at 24%. But not impossible.
On 30 October, they reported they’d gone to 6.31% on 23 October (four days before they reported the 5%.
As reported here before, Murakami-san sometimes does what might charitably be called a headfake, less charitably a Pump ‘n Dump.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share.

3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.

Pharma-Play 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has announced the spin-off and listing of 87.16%-held Mandi (MANDI HK) on the HKEx.
3SBio will distribute its stake in-specie. There will be a concurrent global offering, the details of which are still to be fleshed out.
Mandi (MANDI HK), a ” hair loss and weight management treatments” solutions provider, accounted for 17% of 3SBio’s revs in the 1H25, and 12.5% of profit.

The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge

By Jay Cameron

Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day’s average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
Kioxia’s Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.

HEW: Micro Risk Off

By Phil Rush

Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

By Sanghyun Park

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding

By Hong Jie Seow

UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Singapore IPO.
Ultragreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025

All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 August to 31 October will get added to a major US index in December 2025.
The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of market cap are Bullish US (BLSH US), FT Intermediate (FIGR US) and Fermi (FRMI US).
The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of passive fund impact include Legence (LGN US), Via Transportation (VIA US) and Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 21

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tsuruha Holdings, Taiwan Mobile, Tata Capital Limited, Grindr , Toyoda Gosei, Tekscend Photomask, SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering
Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion in 2026
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade

Following multiple amendments to the methodology, there could be 4 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 18.1% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 173.2bn (US$5.56bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
Toyoda Gosei’s primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.

Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion in 2026

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) went public on 16 October 2025 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and has a current market cap of $2bn.
Inclusion in Global indices is expected in February and June 2026, as the security meets Global eligibility criteria.
A slight free float increase is anticipated at a subsequent review following the lock-up expiry of Qatar Holding.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 20

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Taiwan Mobile, Isupetasys, DeNA, Genes Tech Group Holdings, SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December
CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect
UK Disinflationary Kool-Aid
[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%
Genes Tech’s (8257) Rare Arm’s-Length Offer
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares

CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade

Following multiple amendments to the methodology, there could be 4 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 18.1% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 173.2bn (US$5.56bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.

UK Disinflationary Kool-Aid

By Phil Rush

UK disinflation relied on smaller utility price hikes and only went as far as the 3.6% forecast before September’s dovish surprise. It does not mean a path to 2% lies ahead.
A broad rebound in price increases took the annualised median impulse above 4% to average 2.5% over two months, or 3% on the year, as the underlying problem persists.
The BoE’s December decision pivots around the Governor, who seemingly needs upside news to avoid delivering a cut, so this outcome preserves that riskily dovish course.

[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%

On 20 October, Murakami Group reported they’d gone over 5% in cash/asset-rich DeNA (2432 JP). Not easy with insiders+Crossholders at 39%, passive at 24%. But not impossible.
On 30 October, they reported they’d gone to 6.31% on 23 October (four days before they reported the 5%.
As reported here before, Murakami-san sometimes does what might charitably be called a headfake, less charitably a Pump ‘n Dump.

Genes Tech’s (8257) Rare Arm’s-Length Offer

Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK), a turnkey solutions provider, has announced a rare, arm’s-length Offer, by way of a Scheme.
The Offeror, privately-held Tinicum, is offering HK$0.245/share (not declared final), a 87% premium to last close, and a four-plus-year high.
Irrevocables comprising 69.79% of the register are supportive. Super clean deal

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
In December 2021, Shinsei Bank was privatised by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) through a contentious tender offer at JPY2,800 per share.
The investment case rests on growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, accelerating revenue growth, rising margins and improving asset quality.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 19

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Hongqiao, Capricorn Metals, Digital Holdings Inc, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Daihen Corp, Isupetasys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up
CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares
[Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%
KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December
[Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): Hakuhodo Bumps and Lowers the Minimum Tendering Condition

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).

CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares

CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%

Today after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced changes to the terms of its Tender Offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), which faces an overbidder in SilverCape.
Hakuhodo had bid ¥1,970. Silvercape came over the top with a proposed ¥2,380 but a delay for approvals. DH is fighting against SilverCape because of “remaining minority shareholder risk.”
That’s garbage. Utter blatherskite. Trumpworthy trumpery. Now Hakuhodo DY has lowered the minimum threshold making it hard to miss, and raised the price 2.3% to ¥2,015.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

[Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float

Yesterday saw the announcement of a secondary offering structured like a delayed pricing ABO.
1.5mm shares which is 7.5% of shares out, 25% of Max Real World Float, and 9 days of ADV. There’s more cross-holdings to come out later at some point.
Though it is not particularly expensive, Momentum is not this stock’s friend right now.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): Hakuhodo Bumps and Lowers the Minimum Tendering Condition

Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) increased its Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) tender offer price by 2.3% to JPY2,015, 7.1% below the last close and 15.3% below SilverCape’s JPY2,380 offer.
The lower limit has been reduced to a 24.67% ownership ratio. Hakuhodo’s confidence in passing the EGM share consolidation vote relies on AGM voting trends and passive votes.
Hakuhodo’s acceptances as of 28 October exceed the lower limit. The revised Hakudodo offer will severely dent the chances of SilverCape’s offer.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 18

Most Read: SBI Shinsei Bank, Tsuruha Holdings, Verisilicon Microelectronics S, Guotai Junan Securities , China Hongqiao, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Alibaba, Capricorn Metals, Atlas Arteria and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December
CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move
China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up
Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December

There could be up to 4 constituent changes for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in December. The announcement of the changes will be made after market close on 28 November.
There will be between 0.1-0.35x ADV to trade in the changes but some of the forecast adds will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other indices.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in July and August before giving up all the gains (and more) in a near one-way move over the last month.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.
There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)
Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders’ expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
Get ready for Alibaba‘s earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.

China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

By Nicholas Tan

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal.
However, IFM’s request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 17

Most Read: Maruwn Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines , SBI Shinsei Bank, Mandom Corp, Pacific Industrial, Guotai Junan Securities , Verisilicon Microelectronics S and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms
CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade
STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics
Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak as Tech Bounces

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback

TSE has approved the relisting of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), which is scheduled to go public on 17 December 2025 with an anticipated market cap of $8.4bn.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is forecasted to achieve fast-entry in one Global index in December.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) may be included in the other Global index at the next review, subject to float cap risk.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).

[Japan M&A/Activism] – Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms

The Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) “MBO” was egregiously mis-priced. I was surprised the family did it but on 23 October, they increased their bid by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share.
The stock was at ¥2,735 after activist Effissimo had built a 13% stake at ¥2365. The day after the announcement, the stock opened up through terms and continues to climb.
Effissimo responded 4 days later, buying 2% of voting rights as the stock climbed past ¥3,000, another 1% later. Now the stock is 8+% through new terms. They’re not playing.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.
There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December

There could be up to 4 constituent changes for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in December. The announcement of the changes will be made after market close on 28 November.
There will be between 0.1-0.35x ADV to trade in the changes but some of the forecast adds will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other indices.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in July and August before giving up all the gains (and more) in a near one-way move over the last month.

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK) prices at the low end of the range, Klook (KLK US) seeks to raise US$400 million.
Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP), Maruwn Corp (9067 JP), Star Micronics (7718 JP).

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak as Tech Bounces

By Mark Chadwick

Stocks bounced off intraday lows; Tech stocks recovered with Nvidia +1.8%, Oracle +2.4%, Palantir +1% by the close
Investors still questioning elevated AI valuations, rising debt financing, and capex plans. Rate cut expectations receding.
JP Earnings season drawing to close. NVIDIA results due on Wednesday likely to be focus of the week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 16

Most Read: Mandarin Oriental International, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Chroma Ate Inc, Tata Motors, Sungrow Power Supply, Broadex Technologies Co Ltd, Everyday Network Co Ltd A, Verisilicon Microelectronics S, SBI Shinsei Bank, ABLBio and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer
FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes
CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes in December
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback
ABL Bio: Equity Investment of 22 Billion Won from Eli Lilly

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer

A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming.
Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover.

FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums

There could be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in December. That could easily increase to 4.
Two of the forecast inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, increasing the impact. The third is a potential HSCEI INDEX add in December.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) have dropped ahead of lock-up expiry and there could be premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up

There could be 4 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December as positioning for buying by one set of index trackers pushes stocks into other indices.
There will be passive inflows in some of the forecast adds week after next and the flows from these index trackers will come a few weeks later.
With large AUMs tracking the dividend indices, stocks that have moved up a lot now have low dividend yields and there could be opposite flows from those index trackers.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse

With the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for Tata Motors (TTMT IN) could result in index deletion.
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) being added to the index instead.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes

With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
The largest flows will be in 2 stocks that are forecast adds for both indices. There are 14 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June to August, but there has been significant underperformance since then. Outperformance could resume as positioning kicks in prior to announcement.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December

There could be up to 7 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.8% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 535m. There are a couple of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast deletes have outperformed the forecast adds over the last 2 months and this is an attractive entry point as we near announcement date.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes in December

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) replacing Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH).
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.5x ADV in Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH).
There will be large selling in Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH) due to capping while there will be smaller inflows for the other index constituents.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback

TSE has approved the relisting of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), which is scheduled to go public on 17 December 2025 with an anticipated market cap of $8.4bn.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is forecasted to achieve fast-entry in one Global index in December.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) may be included in the other Global index at the next review, subject to float cap risk.

ABL Bio: Equity Investment of 22 Billion Won from Eli Lilly

By Douglas Kim

On 14 November, ABLBio (298380 KS) announced that it has signed an equity investment agreement with Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US) worth 22 billion won (US$15 million).
ABL Bio will issue 175,079 new shares at 125,900 won per share (27% lower than current price). Despite the high valuation multiples, we maintain a Positive view on ABL Bio.
Its recent major technology agreement with Eli Lilly serves as strong validation from a leading global pharmaceutical company, confirming the significant market potential of ABL’s unique platform technology.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Nov 15

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Maruwn Corp, Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co, Sungrow Power Supply, Everyday Network Co Ltd A, Genting Malaysia, Jinke Smart Services, Agnico Eagle Mines , Pine Labs, Klook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December
CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). The Offer Is Now Unconditional. The IFA Rejects Terms
Why Is Jinke Smart (9666 HK) Still Suspended?
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date
Pine Labs IPO Trading – Low/No Demand
Klook Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growth Has Been Very Strong

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes

The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 28 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 12 December.
There could be one delete each for the CSI Liquor Index and the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index. Plus capping changes for a bunch of stocks.
The entire sector has been under pressure over the last few years with every rally being sold into.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December

There could be up to 7 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.8% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 535m. There are a couple of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast deletes have outperformed the forecast adds over the last 2 months and this is an attractive entry point as we near announcement date.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). The Offer Is Now Unconditional. The IFA Rejects Terms

Back on the 13th October 2025, Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, announced a conditional Offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
GENT offered RM2.35/share, a 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer had a 50% acceptance threshold. The Offer is now unconditional.
The Independent Advice Circular is now out. The IFA says NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. And to reject the Offer. The revised closing date is the 1st December.

Why Is Jinke Smart (9666 HK) Still Suspended?

Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties, (then) holding 37.86%, bought a 18.05% stake in Jinke at auction, subject to CSDC oversight. CSGC approval was received on the 19th September.
The Offer period has been twice extended. Prior to the second extension, shares were suspended. To date, no plausible reason has been given. So I tapped the FA for answers.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.

Pine Labs IPO Trading – Low/No Demand

Pine Labs raised around US$450m in its India IPO. Overall demand was weak.
Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Klook Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growth Has Been Very Strong