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• With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
• 4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
• The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.

• Following the methodology update for the HSIII Index, there could be up to 5 constituent changes in December.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$9.8bn (US$1.25bn).
• Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest beneficiary of the new methodology while there will be large funding outflows for a lot of the current index constituents.

• Dividend tax reform hits calendar: Assembly’s Strategy & Finance Committee starts hearings Nov 13; street buzzing as assembly headlines will push dividend theme.
• Ruling party resists 25% payout threshold; cutting that low kills dividend incentive, while keeping 40% pushes corporates in 20–40% band to hike payouts.
• From Thursday, dividend momentum likely drives locals into >4% yielders with >40% payout, so these names should be our near‑term targets.

• Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP) has recommended an MBO from the founding family at JPY1,220, a 48.8% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. 
• Due to the irrevocables, it is not onerous to meet the minimum acceptance condition. This is a done deal.  

• There could be 12 changes at the December rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 2 index spots and a smaller number of changes in the other sectors.
• We estimate one-way turnover of 2.7% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 69.8bn (US$9.8bn). There are 8 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last 5 months while the forecast deletes have underperformed the index.

• In mid-September, global index provider M _ _ _ announced that they were conducting an index consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. I wrote about it here.
• My recommended short at the time is down 30%, despite announcing a large buyback program. Others have lost significant premium vs underlying digital assets. 
• The same index provider expanded their list of affected names on 29 Oct. And a DIFFERENT Index provider this week added DATCOs to a US Advisory Panel Meeting Agenda Wednesday.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK). 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) is seeking to raise US$507 million through a H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Japan Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation (9287 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK). 

• There could be up to 6 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index at the December rebalance with the number of changes mainly driven by the inclusions.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 6.9% and the round-trip trade is estimated at CNY 4.11bn (US$578m). There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since June but have underperformed in the short-term. With the review period complete and announcement in 3 weeks, positioning could resume.

• TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Lower Premium Before Fresh Long
• UMC: +2.2% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Premium
• CHT: -2.0% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU). 
• Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
• Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.

• There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
• Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)‘s inclusion. 
• If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.

• There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
• The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
• There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.

• With the review period for the December rebalance complete, we highlight 17 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
• The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.1-3.2 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.7-11.2 days of ADV.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months with a big move higher in the last couple of months. Trim positions into strength.

• With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
• 4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
• The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.

• All Winner Technology (300458 CH) could replace StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH) in the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 12 December.
• Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH)‘s index weight is currently higher than 10% and the stock will be capped to limit its index weight.   
• The forecast add has outperformed the forecast delete over the last year and recent market volatility (and valuations) has narrowed the gap.

• The BoE resisted cavalier calls for a rate cut this week, but it is much less cautious than we expected. A December rate cut is now likely, absent significant upside surprises.
• All other central bank announcements this week fit the trend, with cautious holds in Australia, Sweden, Norway, Malaysia and Brazil, and a more careful cut in Mexico.
• Next week’s UK labour market (and GDP) data are one of the few things that could clear the evidential hurdle to block a cut, although we doubt good news will extend that far.

• Pine Labs is a fintech company supporting digitization of commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
• While the company has been growing in line with peers, its focus on enterprise customers and subscription pricing stands out, while peers have focused on merchants with a %-fee model.
• IPO priced at sharp discount to expectations ($2.5bn vs $6bn), which is fair given changing business/industry dynamics. Pending RBI investigation and potential selling from early investors are other near-term concerns.

• Markets steadied in North America suggesting a firmer open for Hong Kong stock on Monday.
• Hong Kong market breadth improved notably, suggesting broader participation despite uneven performance across sectors.
• Option activity eased slightly, though Call demand remained steady relative to overall volume.

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU). 
• Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
• Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.

• In August, Light & Wonder (LNW AU) / Light & Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
• The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days. 
• This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track. 

• With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
• 4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
• The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.

• On 23 October, the MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) was increased by 42.4% to JPY2,919 per share. The offer closes on 7 November. 
• Today, Effissimo further increased its stake to 8.6 million shares, representing 13.97% of outstanding shares and a 14.82% ownership ratio. The implication is that Effissimo remains unsupportive.  
• The shares trade above terms, and the close is likely to be extended. Another bump is possible, but likely, the Ogawas will first try to lower the minimum acceptance condition. 

• A major global index provider announced its quarterly review on 5th November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24th November 2025.
• There were 133 changes announced. We got 115 of these 133 changes – around 86%.
• In this insight, we have presented our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes and provide a few comments on specific situations.

• Back on the 30th April 2025, Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) (“Meilan Airport”) announced a potential change of control, via its domestic shares.
• In principle, this situation involves the re-arrangement of Meilan Airport shares under the same ultimate beneficiary. Nevertheless, the share transfer will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$10.62/share. 
• Yesterday, H-class shareholders approved a “Special Deal” at an EGM. And the share price closed above terms. That vote has nothing to do with the share transfer. Perhaps …

• CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise up to US$700m in its H-share listing.
• CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Shawbrook (SHAW LN), the biggest UK IPO of the year, is expected to be included in UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£2bn.
• Pan African Resources (PAF LN) transferred its listing to the Main Market resulting in its anticipated addition to UK 250 and All-Share at a market cap of ~£1.8bn.
• Princes Group (PRN LN) is anticipated to be included in UK 250 and All-Share following its IPO in November at a market cap of ~£1bn.

• EQT appears to be focused on IRR, prioritizing integration over equity; TOB looks low-return, rights issue chatter spooked markets today, so TOB-driven positioning isn’t realistic near term.
• EQT also faces risks: FSS cap raise approval and a relatively light 34.85% stake limiting exit flexibility. Still, there’s a tactical angle in play.
• EQT skipping TOB, but stealthy on-screen buys could spark a flow bounce; local market still eyes short-term setup trade on gradual stake-building.

• A Bathing Ape was a major success in the eyes of customers, but behind the scenes, founder Nigo became a victim of this very success. 
• Human Made is a different story, structured to give the designer full rein creatively but with experts in operations and marketing making the whole project more sustainable.
• Sales have risen 10-fold since 2020 and the brand will IPO this month, representative of the huge potential for Japan’s creative talent.

• In August, Light & Wonder (LNW AU) / Light & Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
• The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days. 
• This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track. 

• Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$860m and WeRide (WRD US) raised around US$310m in their HK Secondary offering.
• We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
• In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics for the two deals.

• Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.

• Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) has announced plans to acquire Qatar Airways’ 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).
• Qatar Airways acquired this stake in November 2017 at HK$13.65/share. 
• Upon approval from the SFC (mainly granting a MGO waiver), Swire Pacific (19 HK)‘s stake in Cathay increases to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).

• A major global index provider announced its quarterly review on 5th November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24th November 2025.
• There were 133 changes announced. We got 115 of these 133 changes – around 86%.
• In this insight, we have presented our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes and provide a few comments on specific situations.

• On 23 October, the MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) was increased by 42.4% to JPY2,919 per share. The offer closes on 7 November. 
• Today, Effissimo further increased its stake to 8.6 million shares, representing 13.97% of outstanding shares and a 14.82% ownership ratio. The implication is that Effissimo remains unsupportive.  
• The shares trade above terms, and the close is likely to be extended. Another bump is possible, but likely, the Ogawas will first try to lower the minimum acceptance condition. 

• Another 5:4 vote split broke the BoE’s run of quarterly rate cuts. Governor Bailey is revealed to be the pivotal member, with the others worried about inflation persistence.
• Bailey endorsed market pricing and a forward-looking Taylor Rule path that includes a cut this quarter. His verbal comments imply a presumption in favour of cutting then.
• Upside news over the next two monthly release cycles would be needed to block that December cut. Resistance to cutting should only grow stronger as time passes.

• Japan Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation (9287 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP) at JPY65,000, a 21.5% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is light, as it is below book value (implying a P/NAV of 0.82x) and is below the midpoint of the IFA-adjusted book valuation range.
• However, a dispersed shareholder register with no substantial shareholders suggests that it is an uphill struggle for an activist to agitate for a bump. This is likely a done deal. 

• The diverging services PMI and ISM resolved bullishly in October, with activity broadly back to 2024 averages. The ISM headline still looks lower because it is a composite.
• Price balances remain extremely elevated while employment’s weakness has become less acute, skewing the trade-off more hawkishly for any policymaker’s preferences.
• The broader global deterioration in PMIs and unemployment last month also recovered in the latest round of releases. These data are not screaming for any more easing.

• CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise up to US$700m in its H-share listing.
• CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
• GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
• GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

• There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
• Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)‘s inclusion. 
• If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.

• Last week, “Murakami Group” (a group of investors who jointly file large shareholder filings) announced a 5+% stake in DeNA (2432 JP). The stock popped. Then they filed again.
• This was not surprising. It has long been known as a “value” name (and has the requisite short balance to prove it). The question is how much value IS there
• The question is how much value IS there. And to whom? It’s an interesting question which deserves a look, so we take a look.  

• With the review period complete, we forecast 2 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 7 changes for the STAR100 Index in December.
• We estimate turnover of 4.3% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 6.7% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 17.9bn (US$2.5bn).
• The forecast adds to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) have outperformed the forecast deletes with most of the outperformance coming in August. Been a volatile trade since then.

• Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
• The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
• Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.

• Markets have erroneously repriced a BoE rate cut as potentially imminent and repeated. Policymakers are tending to surprise hawkishly in the UK and elsewhere recently.
• Downside news on excess inflation is mild, while the activity data have, if anything, exceeded BoE forecasts. Pay growth signals remain strong, not disappointing the BoE.
• Six MPC members have favoured slower easing, inconsistent with a November cut. Fiscal consolidation is unlikely to frontload a shock large enough for the MPC to accommodate.

• For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco’s trading at extreme levels, in both “set-up” and “unwind” territory.
• Preceding the chart/table-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) yesterday decided to launch a question-response effort for the Murakami-san Group ownership of Mandom shares up to and above 20%. This is a Poison Pill precursor.
• There’s a drawn out set of questions, answers, etc, at the end of which, the Independent Committee will decide that Murakami is a Bad Person and the Poison Pill proceeds.
• Murakami Group is apparently now over 20%. That’s a little tricky. But this looks like a Good Poison Pill. 

• Retail flow drove the ratio: selling pushed it higher, buying dragged it lower. Pre‑Sept they dip‑bought and flipped; since late Sept they’ve chased longs, fueling Hynix’s rally.
• Instos joined retail chasing Hynix, juicing momentum; KRX’s investment‑alert acts as a speed bump, likely cooling hot‑money flows and tilting the ratio in Square’s favor.
• But retail still drives Hynix; until they cool off, Square NAV squeeze is early. A sector‑wide AI pivot cooling retail frenzy is the real catalyst, bigger than KRX’s alert.

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.

• There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
• The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
• There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.

• Back in 2021, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) took 84.89%-held Jardine Strategic (JS SP) private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured. 
• Less clear are “fair value” appraisal rights afforded Strategic’s dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.
• Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), in which appraisal rights are not afforded.

• Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) aims to raise around US$452m via a 6.97% stake sale in Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. Post the selldown, Hitachi’s stake will reduce to 18.4%.
• Hitachi Construction Machinery Co (HCMC) is a Japanese company that designs, manufactures, sells, and services construction and mining equipment.
• In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• With the review period for the December rebalance complete, we highlight 17 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
• The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.1-3.2 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.7-11.2 days of ADV.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months with a big move higher in the last couple of months. Trim positions into strength.

• Last week, “Murakami Group” (a group of investors who jointly file large shareholder filings) announced a 5+% stake in DeNA (2432 JP). The stock popped. Then they filed again.
• This was not surprising. It has long been known as a “value” name (and has the requisite short balance to prove it). The question is how much value IS there
• The question is how much value IS there. And to whom? It’s an interesting question which deserves a look, so we take a look.  

• CSI 1000 represents the next 1000 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges after CSI 800. 
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect 100 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 1000 index during this index review based on the latest available data. 

• With the review period complete, we forecast 2 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 7 changes for the STAR100 Index in December.
• We estimate turnover of 4.3% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 6.7% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 17.9bn (US$2.5bn).
• The forecast adds to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) have outperformed the forecast deletes with most of the outperformance coming in August. Been a volatile trade since then.

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has proposed countermeasures in response to Murakami’s 18.87% voting stake and to ostensibly secure time for an alternative, viable (higher) offer.
• The read-across from the proposal is that CVC’s offer at current terms will fail, CVC is unwilling to match Murakami/Hibiki’s expectations, and there could be genuine interest from third-party bidders. 
• Nevertheless, countermeasures are unnecessary as the share price and presence of activists provide the time needed for the Board’s purported aim to secure a higher offer.       

• There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
• Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)‘s inclusion. 
• If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU). 
• Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
• Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.

• With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December.
• There may not be any intra-review changes following the Hyundai Heavy Industries/ Hyundai Mipo merger due to timing and also due to Samsung Biologics‘ spinoff being added to the index.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSPI2 INDEX over the last few months and in the short-term too.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 

• In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant. 
• This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%). 
• Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.

• Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.
• Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, there were a flurry of deal launches across Hong Kong and India.
• On the placements front, while the week was rather quiet, we did have a look at the upcoming lockup release.

• There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
• The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
• There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.

• The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
• The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event. 11 ADDs, 11 DELs, $2.3bn to trade.

• Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC’s expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
• The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week’s reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.

• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.
• SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.
• Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU). 
• Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
• Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event.

• With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December.
• There may not be any intra-review changes following the Hyundai Heavy Industries/ Hyundai Mipo merger due to timing and also due to Samsung Biologics‘ spinoff being added to the index.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSPI2 INDEX over the last few months and in the short-term too.

• LG Chem is considering on paying higher dividends using sale proceeds from LG Energy Solution. 
• This breaks the company’s principle of using only ordinary income from operating activities as a source for dividends.
• If indeed LG Chem goes ahead with this plan, this would be as a result of heightened demands from major activist investors including Palliser Capital.

• SK D&D announced the results of the delisting tender offer by Hahn & Co. SK &D mentioned that the subscription reached only 40% of the planned tender offer amount.
• Post failed tender offer for SK D&D by Hahn & Co, we expect this to have a positive impact on SK D&D’s share price.
• The major reason for this is that there are still many investors that believe that SK D&D’s shares are significantly undervalued at P/B of only 0.4x.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 

• There is an end of a lock-up period for 55.3 million shares (33% of outstanding shares) for SK Innovation (096770 KS) starting 20 November 2025.
• This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
• SK Innovation is currently trading at relatively high valuation multiples. We remain Bearish on SK Innovation.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Bank Central Asia, Bank Mandiri, Emtek, Bumi Resources, Bank Syariah Indonesia, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera and Medikaloka Hermina.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• A massive rally in Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) should see the stock added to a global index in November and then to another country ETF in December.
• With one exception, Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) has outperformed its peers over the last 6 months. With large buying to come, that could continue in the short-term.
• There is positioning in Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) and its peers. With continued momentum in the stock, the path of least resistance is higher.

• Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event.

• Softcare (SOFT HK) is looking to raise up to US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is an international hygiene product corporation with a focus on fast-growing Emerging Markets including Africa, Latin America and Central Asia. 
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• LG Chem is considering on paying higher dividends using sale proceeds from LG Energy Solution. 
• This breaks the company’s principle of using only ordinary income from operating activities as a source for dividends.
• If indeed LG Chem goes ahead with this plan, this would be as a result of heightened demands from major activist investors including Palliser Capital.

• Binjiang Service is a high-growth property management firm with a strong brand in the premium segment of the Yangtze River Delta, benefiting from the stable pipeline of its reputable parent developer, Binjiang Real Estate.
• The company is strategically shifting its focus towards high-margin ‘5S’ value-added services (VAS), particularly in soft decoration and community living, to offset declining revenues and margins in its non-owner VAS segment.
• While demonstrating robust top-line growth and a generous dividend policy, the company faces significant risks from the broader downturn in China’s property market, intense industry competition, and rising operational costs.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
• We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
• We highlighted EPS revision on SUPCON TECHNOLOGY, SHENGYI ELECTRONICS, TRANSSION, TRINA SOLAR, CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, Trina Solar, Shengyi Electronics, Cambricon Technologies, Transsion, Supcon Technology.

• Nidec (6594 JP)‘s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)‘s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It’ll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
• Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
• The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.

• As widely speculated, Cosette asserted to Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) on the 17th May a Material Adverse Change (MAC) has occurred.
• Mayne disagrees, and views the pre-requisites for a MAC, as defined in the SID, have not been established. 
• What now? The Scheme is not terminated. Both parties remain in consultation. If those talks are not satisfactory (say, a price reduction [my guess]), Cosette said it will walk. 

• The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
• Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

• In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
• In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
• This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 

• Four weeks ago, CVC announced a family-led MBO of hair care and cosmetics company Mandom Corp (4917 JP) at a price which was decidedly too light, well below company plans.
• One activist wrote a letter clearly calling them out for accepting a low-ball price well below the Medium Term Management Plan target. Another bought a lot of shares. 
• On 25 September, Murakami-san and affiliates reported an 8.39% position. Seven trading days later it is 16.59% and the shares are up small from my last piece + 1. 

• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• HHI–Mipo merger overlaps Dec review: Mipo dropped Nov 26, desk holds cash, rebal Dec 12, new HHI shares list Dec 15 but capped at 10%.
• No ad-hoc replacement for Mipo Nov 26; Dec review will add a new name, likely Sejin Heavy (075580 KS), with no other significant flows flagged.
• Sejin Heavy’s recent post-rally volume cools; passive inflow ~1.5x DTV may trigger visible price action, with potential front-running 1–2 days ahead of Dec 12 ETF rebal.

• Today partway through the day, Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP), Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) announced Daiwa House would buy out Sumitomo Densetsu for ¥9,760/share. 
• Sumitomo Electric will sell its stake to the company ¥6,877/share. Minorities get 11.9x Mar26 EBITDA. The Bidder is buying at 9.9x. 
• At an ATH, and a nice premium, and 3x book, this looks like a pretty good takeout price. Daiwa House has plans for it.

• Today after the close, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP), with 110,000 employees, announced a buyout of a small “labour-intensive” AI/ML sysdev business with 200+ data scientists.
• Brainpad Inc (3655 JP) is being bought out from its co-founders and others at a near-100% premium. Not an all-time high, but not a low price.
• Somewhat heavily shorted, this will trade tight, but I expect nobody will come over the top. 

• KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.
• SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.
• Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.

• Central bankers broadly delivered on expectations this week, while cautioning that changes will likely be less than markets assume. The BOJ and ECB were also cautious.
• Flash EA inflation slowed, as expected, but services and core stoked hawkish pressure, while money and credit data in the EA and UK show accommodation of inflation.
• Next week’s BoE decision is no longer priced as a forgone conclusion, but the case to cut is weak. Like its peers, the BoE should cautiously damp dovish expectations.