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• The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful. 
• That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months. 
• And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime. 

• The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
• For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
• For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
• The round-trip trade is US$12.7bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US).
• The largest flows are expected in Meta, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Broadcom, Live Nation Entertainment, Tesla, T Mobile Us, Exxon Mobil, Fox, Omnicom Group, TKO Group Holdings and Netflix.

• Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
• There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
• I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
• HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

• Insiders say Google’s fast-growing phone biz now overlaps Samsung’s, sparking serious rivalry fears. This “Google shock” has become a major topic among Samsung’s top execs lately.
• Sammy’s crisis plan involves carving out System LSI from foundry, with a likely spin-off of the foundry biz as a separate entity—insiders say that’s the favored move now.
• Samsung’s restructuring sparks a tug-of-war between shareholder value erosion and foundry re-rating. A spin-off looks likely, with recent stock moves showing investor optimism.

• Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
• Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
• We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.

• Saint Bella, a luxury maternity and baby care brand, has announced the fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share for its IPO in Hong Kong.  
• The company is expected to IPO next week and initial fixed offer price implies a market cap of ~HK$3.9B. Saint Bella is set to start trading on June 26, 2025.
• Cornerstone investors have agreed to invest ~$42M in this offering. China Asset Management, JKKB and SS Morgan are among the cornerstone investors.  

• US diplomacy with Iran has been given two weeks, bringing it close to the reciprocal tariff deferral date. Both may roll later, while central bankers wait to see the impact.
• Unsurprising UK and EA inflation data offered little direction, nor did the BoE or Fed. Brazil and Norway delivered opposite surprises outside a flood of cautious statements.
• Next week is much quieter for data and decisions (TH and MX). The flash PMIs are the main global highlight, although some HICP and PCE data are notable on Friday.

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July. 

• The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
• For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
• For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful. 
• That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months. 
• And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime. 

• Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
• The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
• This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

• Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
• There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
• I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 41 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
• Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
• We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.

• China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK), a processor and trader of rare earth oxides/metals, is suspended for reasons unknown.  
• But not before gaining 79% month to date. On huge volume. And that gain is after giving back 23% from a recent high close.
• As discussed in Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths; although there has been some partial easing. 

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July. 

• The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
• For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
• For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
• HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

• Chairman Yoon Dong-han, founder of the Kolmar Group, has filed a lawsuit against his eldest son, Vice Chairman Yoon Sang-hyun of Kolmar Holdings, demanding the return of Kolmar Holdings shares.
• This is a rare case of a chairman demanding his shares back from his son.
• A key question is can there be an M&A fight for Kolmar Holdings even without the father getting his shares back? And the answer would be yes.

• Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
• The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
• This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 

• UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.
• Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.
• Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

• To no one’s surprise, the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).  
• The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.
• While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully. 

• Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited is looking to raise around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
• Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about valuations.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
• That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
• The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

• Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
• The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
• Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

• BYD announced that the company would provide price discounts for 22 models.
• BYD has scale advantage over other NEV car makers and the NEV industry has bargaining power over suppliers and dealers.
• The auto association and the Ministry of Industry are trying to protect small companies from bankruptcy.

• On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
• It’s an OK price, not a great price. But while they are not calculated by advisors, at least the Target Board talks about the value of synergies to minorities.
• The price is light, but the combined irrevocables and large individual shareholders not brought over the wall get this over the line.

• In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
• Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
• Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.

• On the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) (ENN-NG), its largest shareholder.
• The pushback is that the scrip portion pivots off the value of newly-listed ENN-NG H-shares. And the IFA’s theoretical assessment on such leaves a lot to be desired.
• A redacted version of ENN-NG’s application proof is now out. Curiously, the share ratio – new ENN-NG H Shares for each ENN shares – is noticeably absent

• KDB just signaled they’ll offload their Hanjin KAL stake post-merger, likely in 2027—ending speculation they’d stay long-term to back Cho Won-tae.
• The 9% held by Daishin and Eugene PEs may hit the market in August, with LPs likely to cash out—Hoban grabbing it could flip the whole Hanjin KAL setup.
• If Hoban grabs the 9% PE stake in August, it could trigger a pre-2027 bidding war—possibly even a tender offer—to lock down float. This is the key near-term pivot.

• CaoCao (2643 HK)  is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
• In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
• The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.

• Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle 
• The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. 
• Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
• That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
• The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

• There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
• The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

• A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
• With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
• Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

• AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
• This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

• There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
• The round-trip trade is US$12.7bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US).
• The largest flows are expected in Meta, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Broadcom, Live Nation Entertainment, Tesla, T Mobile Us, Exxon Mobil, Fox, Omnicom Group, TKO Group Holdings and Netflix.

• Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Marunouchi Capital at JPY7,900, a 35.0% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
• An attractive offer and irrevocables (33.19% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 17 June to 29 July.

• There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
• There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. 
• We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. 

• Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
• The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

• Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
• There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

• The MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.
• Cgn Mining (1164 HK) will be an ADD and Endesa SA (ELE SM) will be a DELETE in June 2025.
• There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.

• Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)  opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
• The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
• Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and  lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings. 

• A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
• With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
• Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

• Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
• Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
• Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

• Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
• The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
• Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.

• There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
• A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
• There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

• Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.
• The higher probability scenario is for Kim’s family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price. 
• Late founder Kim’s family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim’s wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp. 

• The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
• There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. 
• We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. 

• Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.
• No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.
• No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.

• AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
• This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
• Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
• The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.

• Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
• There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

• BAF Viet Nam Agriculture JSC (BAF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
• Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN) stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.

• FnGuide has been able to capitalize on its excellent brand name in the financial industry (especially for research used in equity trading) to profitably expand into the index development business.
• Although the index business accounted for 25% of its sales in 2024, it has been the fastest growing business in the past six years. 
• Valuations are reasonable and it is trading at 27% below four year historical EV/EBITDA basis. We like FnGuide as a long-term investment story. 

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Sasseur REIT’s CFO, Mr. Xie Jianfeng, Head of Asset Management, Mr. Cheng Hsing Yuen, and Head of Investor Relations & Capital Markets, Ms. Helen Qiu.

In the upcoming webinar, the Sasseur REIT team will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Garreth Elston. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 16:30 SGT.

About Sasseur REIT

Sasseur REIT is the first retail outlet mall REIT listed in Asia. Sasseur REIT offers investors
the unique opportunity to invest in the fast-growing retail outlet mall sector in China through
its initial portfolio of four quality retail outlet mall assets strategically located in fast-growing
Chinese cities such as Chongqing, Kunming and Hefei, with a combined net lettable area of
310,241 square metres.

Sasseur REIT is established with the investment strategy to invest principally, directly or
indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for
retail outlet mall purposes, as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing,
with an initial focus on Asia.

You can view their latest factsheet here.

For more information on Sasseur REIT, please visit http://www.sasseurreit.com/

• The June rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 13 June.
• HealthyWay (2587 HK) will be added to the ETF while East Buy Holding (1797 HK) will be deleted. The passive trading will offer an opportunity to exit positions.
• There is a huge lock-up expiry in HealthyWay (2587 HK) on 30 June and the stock could drop ahead of that. Then it could drop some more after lock-up expiry.

• There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
• A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
• There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

• On the 10th of June, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) and Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck & Bus Company announced their long-awaited integration plans. We have a deal.
• An agreement was signed in 2023, but Hino got in big trouble for falsifying testing data on gasoline engine emissions/efficiency. Hino took a hit in 2023, then 2025. Talks advanced. 
• The deal announced suggests Toyota has thrown itself and Hino minorities under the proverbial Fuso bus. It’s VERY odd. But… it deserves a look because 2026 will see a re-IPO.

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

• On the 21st May 2025, copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU)  inked a Scheme with Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) at A$0.05/share, a punchy 95.7% premium to NWC’s 30-day VWAP.
• Copper plays are definitely in vogue after Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)‘s recent Offer for MAC Copper (MAC AU), and Bastion Minerals’ tilt for Xanadu Mines (XAM AU).
• NWC closed up 4.2% yesterday, and was briefly through terms, again, today (as I type). On decent volume. Opportunistic investor (s) or a third party bidder? 

• A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
• We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index 
• Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model’s tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). 

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
• ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
• We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

• Wuxi Biologics Holdings is looking to raise up to US$288m by selling about 2% of Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK). 
• This is the company’s 17th placement since it listed in June 2017.
• In this note, we talk about the updates since then and run the deal through our ECM Framework.

• There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
• A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
• There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

• Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
• The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
• Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

• Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange. 
• Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now confirmed that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage. 
• TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appears limited.

• On the 10th of June, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) and Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck & Bus Company announced their long-awaited integration plans. We have a deal.
• An agreement was signed in 2023, but Hino got in big trouble for falsifying testing data on gasoline engine emissions/efficiency. Hino took a hit in 2023, then 2025. Talks advanced. 
• The deal announced suggests Toyota has thrown itself and Hino minorities under the proverbial Fuso bus. It’s VERY odd. But… it deserves a look because 2026 will see a re-IPO.

• Government aims to sell 30.6% NXC stake by 2027 for ₩4T tax revenue, offering NXC a buyback or selling with management control to attract bidders.
• The family won’t buy back the 30.6% stake but may allow partial management rights, with Tencent eyeing that stake—not a full $15B Nexon buyout as Bloomberg suggested.
• Tencent’s targeting that stake chunk only, no control shift, so no mandatory tender offer triggered—at least for now.

• Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
• The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation’s largest gold mine.
• A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.

• Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.
• The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.
• BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.

• The Hang Seng Biotech index (HSHKBIO) represents the 50 largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSHKBIO index rebal event in September 2025.
• Based on the latest data, we see three ADDs and three DELs.

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

• Everest Medicines (1952 HK) aims to raise around US$150m in a secondary sell-down of shares conducted by CBC Group.
• This comes on the heels of a similar secondary sell down in Jan 2025, whereby CBC sold ~US$100m worth of stock, priced at a 10% discount. 
• In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July. 

• In early February, articles suggesting the PE owner of TRYT (9164 JP) wanted to cash out. Performance post-IPO had been bad. Catching up to the IPO price would be tough.
• But a second round of bidding came about, so the stock went limit up. Then it settled in the ¥480 range for three weeks. Then started to climb. 
• Now the company and its PE firm owner have announced a sale to a new PE Firm at ¥880/share. This is below IPO Price but it will get done.

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
• The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
• Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

• Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.
• Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.
• Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) could be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.

• Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
• Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• In this insight, we discuss the preferred shares of five major holding companies and how the share price gap relative to their common counterparts could decrease. 
• There is a relatively easy way to improve shareholder value of these holding companies which is to cancel the entire preferred shares that trade at discount to their common counterparts.
• The common shares of these five companies have experienced an average share price appreciation of 33.2% YTD versus 28.7% appreciation for their preferred shares counterparts.

• There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
• A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
• There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

• Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange. 
• Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now confirmed that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage. 
• TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appears limited.

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its H-share listing.
• FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
• We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.