Most Read

A Reuters article overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year.
The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one’s imagination to think about a possible sale price.
On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn’t reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

With just over a week left to review cutoff, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs in March.
Guotai Junan Securities, Cambricon Technologies and SAIC Motor could replace CGN Power, Luzhou Laojiao and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group.
Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is expected to be added to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.

FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out

Nearing the end of the review period, we expect two changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March.
Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is a high probability add while China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) is a high probability delete.
ZTE Corp H (763 HK) is a potential inclusion currently and could replace China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK) as long as it stays in inclusion zone.

CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates

By Sumeet Singh

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.

Kaonavi (4435 JP) – Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle

Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in “y.” It is a thing recently.
Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.
I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There’s another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.

Trend Micro (4704 JP): Rumoured Buyout Interest Starting to Take Shape

Trend Micro Inc. (4704 JP) shares have hit their daily trade limit, following a Reuters report that Bain, Advent, KKR, and EQT AB are potential bidders.
The lack of a controlling shareholder and increased cybersecurity M&A activity support the buyout interest. In 4Q2024, cybersecurity M&A reached the highest quarterly volume in the past three years.
The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%- 38% premium to the current price.

Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

By Akshat Shah

Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind

Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) reported Q3 earnings today. Revs up tiny yoy over 9m. OP +13%, Net +18.2%. Progression a bit behind guidance for full-year (but guidance unchanged)
Orders received and carried forward a record high. Margins up. DX/etc investments up. Crossholdings down but still HUGE outbound/in-bound. Goal is to shrink from 20% of net assets to 15%.
Today the company announced some crossholders would sell ~5% of shares out, and the company would launch a buyback for half that. Meh…

Piolax (5988 JP) – Murakami-San Gets BIG Buyback Tender Offer

Piolax Inc (5988 JP) is a small, low ROE, over-capitalised autoparts maker mostly making low-moat parts, but they sell A LOT of them. About a gajillion.
They started 100% div payout ratios 3yrs ago, and last year started a new MTMP to pay out 100% and then buy back a lot of stock. Murakami bought 10%.
In November they launched a big buyback. Now they are launching a 23.78% Tender Offer Buyback where Murakami-san will sell. Big accretion on forward expectations downgrades. Hmmm… 🤨

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 13

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Kokusai Electric , Samsung Life Insurance, Furukawa Co Ltd, Japan Eyewear Holdings , Eva Airways, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Lifestyle Communities, Guming Holdings, Cambricon Technologies Lt and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand
Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M
Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback
Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In
Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update
Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger
Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved.
Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.

Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M

Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) plan to sell about 278 billion won of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
A total of 5 million shares of Samsung Electronics shares that are expected to be sold in this block deal sale represents 0.1% of Samsung Electronics’ outstanding shares.
If Samsung Life Insurance is able to sell 4.256 million shares of Samsung Electronics for 236.4 billion won, this would represent 1.3% of Samsung Life Insurance’s market cap.

Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback

In May 2023, Furukawa Co Ltd (5715 JP) decided it would review cross-holdings as part of its Actions to Implement Management Awareness of Capital Cost and Share Price.
In February 2024, it announced a cross-holding reduction policy, and then accelerated it in May 2024. They’ve been selling. They did a small buyback too.
Monday they announced a LARGE buyback (looks larger than it is) leaving future capital allocation policy better, but still wanting. The question is now the forward-forward bet.

Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In

Eva Airways (2618 TT) is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March, replacing Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT).
Passive trackers will have 1 day of ADV to buy in Eva Airways (2618 TT) and over 3 days of ADV to sell in Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT).
Positioning on Eva Airways (2618 TT) does not appear excessive while Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT) seems to be oversold.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move.
In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.

Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger

Reportedly, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) and Lifestyle Communities (LIC AU) – companies which provide low-cost housing needs for working, semi-retired, and/or retired people – are mulling a merger.
Part of the rumourmill pivots off of the fact Lifestyle will release its 1H25E results after market on the 24th Feb, shortly ahead of Ingenia’s own release the following morning.
Lifestyle’s share price remain 25% adrift of levels shortly ahead of a July 2024 ABC report alleging excessive exit fees.

Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

By Clarence Chu

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

With just over a week left to review cutoff, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs in March.
Guotai Junan Securities, Cambricon Technologies and SAIC Motor could replace CGN Power, Luzhou Laojiao and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group.
Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is expected to be added to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 12

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), HKBN Ltd, Brother Industries, Hyundai Motor India , A2 Milk Co Ltd, Oracle Financial Services, Samsung Life Insurance, Paragon REIT, Furukawa Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
HKBN (1310 HK): Just How Likely Is An I Squared Offer?
Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech
Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M
Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer
Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback
HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

HKBN (1310 HK): Just How Likely Is An I Squared Offer?

Two hours before China Mobile’s pre-conditional voluntary Offer announcement on the 2 December, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) flagged a possible separate Offer from I Squared Asia-backed HGC Global Communication (HGC).
No price was mentioned, although HKBN and I Squared “are in discussions on the terms of the proposal (including the price).” The media is reporting a HK$5-HK$6/share price range.
Apart from anti-competition concerns via a HKBN/HGC tie-in; would HGC even get approval from the powers that be to proceed with a merger?

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.

Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M

Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) plan to sell about 278 billion won of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
A total of 5 million shares of Samsung Electronics shares that are expected to be sold in this block deal sale represents 0.1% of Samsung Electronics’ outstanding shares.
If Samsung Life Insurance is able to sell 4.256 million shares of Samsung Electronics for 236.4 billion won, this would represent 1.3% of Samsung Life Insurance’s market cap.

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer

Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24’s S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.

Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback

In May 2023, Furukawa Co Ltd (5715 JP) decided it would review cross-holdings as part of its Actions to Implement Management Awareness of Capital Cost and Share Price.
In February 2024, it announced a cross-holding reduction policy, and then accelerated it in May 2024. They’ve been selling. They did a small buyback too.
Monday they announced a LARGE buyback (looks larger than it is) leaving future capital allocation policy better, but still wanting. The question is now the forward-forward bet.

HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shares declined 4.4% after a Sing Tao Daily article claimed that the precondition satisfaction of China Mobile (941 HK)’s offer is at a stalemate.
The mainland regulatory authorities have not provided any feedback on the approval process. The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) deal break is cited as a cautionary tale.
While the China TCM deal break taught us that no deal is safe, even an SOE-sponsored deal, the article’s concerns have little merit. This is a buy.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Brother Industries, Bestechnic Shanghai , Orica Ltd, T’Way Air, A2 Milk Co Ltd, Samsung SDS, Hyundai Motor India , Hanwha Aerospace and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together
Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC
Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month
Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air
S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

In the past month we have seen Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
We’ve also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided “in spring” with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC

The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread – still wide – is narrowing.

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks.
If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air

ACT’s team for T’way Air’s small shareholders plans to push for a public tender offer once they reach the 3% stake threshold.
Sono may shift its stance on a public tender offer. With a 3% stake gap, Sono must appease retail shareholders before the AGM, especially after the rights offering backlash.
FSC probe shows info leaks from brokers and law firms still trigger volume volatility before tender offers. Monitor T’way Air’s trading volume closely until February’s end.

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend

SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

Hanwha Aerospace announced that it plans to purchase a 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean.
This 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean is currently worth about 1.3 trillion won (US$0.9 billion). After this purchase, Hanwha Aerospace’s stake in Hanwha Ocean will increase from 23.14% to 30.44%.
There could be a further positive momentum on Hanwha Aerospace in the near-term due to its positive earnings report in 4Q24 combined with acquisition of additional stake in Hanwha Ocean.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 10

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Britannia Industries, Brother Industries, Englewood Lab, SBI Sumishin Net Bank , Orica Ltd, Bestechnic Shanghai , Hexaware Technologies, Toyota Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together
Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes
Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea
SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163) – Oops! NTT Docomo May Not Be There As a Buyer
Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month
Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case
EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) – Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

In the past month we have seen Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
We’ve also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided “in spring” with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC

The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread – still wide – is narrowing.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Following their inclusion in the F&O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries‘ average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp‘s. It’s very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea

On 6 February, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) launched a partial tender offer on Englewood Lab (950140 KS).
Cosmecca Korea announced that it plans to purchase 11% (2.185 million) of Englewood Lab’s outstanding shares at the tender offer price of 10,000 won.
It appears that this partial tender offer is an attempt by Cosmecca Korea to increase its stake in Englewood Lab even further, capitalizing on the lower share price.

SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163) – Oops! NTT Docomo May Not Be There As a Buyer

On Friday, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) fell 12.5% in the last 90 minutes of trading. This was not due to their Q3 earnings release (out 30 January).
It seemed due to investor disappointment in the content of the NTT earnings call. As discussed in the forked insight, there had been speculation NTT would buy SBI Sumishin.
Investors had thought NTT would pay more than 28x earnings and a ¥600bn premium to book to buy the business. At 23.7x Mar25e EPS and 4.1x book, it’s still expensive.

Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks.
If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
In Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on mid-tier revenue growth, bottom-tier margins, low offshore mix, rising unbilled receivables/contract assets and a large post-IPO share overhang.

EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) – Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

By Gaudenz Schneider

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s meeting with US President Trump shines the spotlight on potential US tariffs on Japanese cars. Toyota Motor’s (7203 JP) high implied volatility expresses elevated risk.
Risk analysis suggests a range of option strategies. Implementation is challenging due to low liquidity in the Japanese market.
Option liquidity is higher in the US traded Toyota Motor Corp Spon ADR (TM US) which is the preferred route of implementation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 09

Most Read: Fast Retailing, ESR Group , Sigma Healthcare, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), Barito Renewables Energy, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Hexaware Technologies, Britannia Industries, China National Building Material and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
ESR Group (1821 HK): Offer Musings
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
Hexaware Technologies IPO: Delisted in 2020; Now Looking to Raise US$1bn
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes
CNBM (3323 HK): A Closer Look At Proration

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Offer Musings

Back in February this year, various media sources reported that the key shareholders of warehouse/fund management play ESR Group (1821 HK), were exploring options, including a privatisation.
Long-Term holders Warburg Pincus and Canadian pension fund OMERS hold 14% and 10.7% respectively. ESR co-founders/directors Jeffrey Shen, Stuart Gibson, Charles de Portes, and Hwee Chiang collectively hold another ~23%.
Shares in ESR were suspended this morning “pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers“.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

There could be 1/2 changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the HKEX.
Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the FXI and there could be further deviations from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) options.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That

Halfway through the review period, there could be 6 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June. The LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) listing could increase that number.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.1-26 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-11 days of ADV.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months and the performance gap is near its widest point.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Delisted in 2020; Now Looking to Raise US$1bn

In November 2020, HT Global IT Solutions acquired all the shares it did not own in Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) and delisted the stock from the NSE and BSE.
Now, Carlyle Group is looking to raise INR 87.5bn by selling stock at a price range of INR 674-708/share, valuing Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) at US$4.8bn.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in May and September, though the impact will be limited.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Following their inclusion in the F&O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries‘ average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp‘s. It’s very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.

CNBM (3323 HK): A Closer Look At Proration

Back on the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China’s leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
As this elevates CNBM’s parent’s stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, independent H-shareholder will vote on a whitewash waiver on the 19th February.
Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. It is likely to be higher. The question is whether to buy, and/or borrow, and tender; or simply short outright.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 08

Most Read: Indusind Bank, Barito Renewables Energy, Hexaware Technologies, Shin Kong Financial Holding, PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Britannia Industries, Englewood Lab, China National Building Material, Hyundai Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
Hexaware Technologies IPO: Delisted in 2020; Now Looking to Raise US$1bn
Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC
PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Free Float to Determine Global Index Inclusion
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes
A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea
CNBM (3323 HK): A Closer Look At Proration
Korea’s First ATS Launching March 4: Arb Opportunities to Watch

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 13 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in February.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Delisted in 2020; Now Looking to Raise US$1bn

In November 2020, HT Global IT Solutions acquired all the shares it did not own in Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) and delisted the stock from the NSE and BSE.
Now, Carlyle Group is looking to raise INR 87.5bn by selling stock at a price range of INR 674-708/share, valuing Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) at US$4.8bn.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in May and September, though the impact will be limited.

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC

The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread – still wide – is narrowing.

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Free Float to Determine Global Index Inclusion

Low free float market cap has kept PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) out of a major global index so far.
An increase in float recently to just above 15% could result in the inclusion of the stock in the index in February and that will trigger large passive buying.
There is positioning in the stock, and the future stock path will depend on whether it is added to the index or not.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and four changes for NIFTY 100. We expect the results to be announced in the next few days.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Following their inclusion in the F&O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries‘ average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp‘s. It’s very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.

A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea

On 6 February, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) launched a partial tender offer on Englewood Lab (950140 KS).
Cosmecca Korea announced that it plans to purchase 11% (2.185 million) of Englewood Lab’s outstanding shares at the tender offer price of 10,000 won.
It appears that this partial tender offer is an attempt by Cosmecca Korea to increase its stake in Englewood Lab even further, capitalizing on the lower share price.

CNBM (3323 HK): A Closer Look At Proration

Back on the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China’s leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
As this elevates CNBM’s parent’s stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, independent H-shareholder will vote on a whitewash waiver on the 19th February.
Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. It is likely to be higher. The question is whether to buy, and/or borrow, and tender; or simply short outright.

Korea’s First ATS Launching March 4: Arb Opportunities to Watch

Korea’s first ATS goes live on March 4, starting with 10 tickers based on liquidity and market cap, expanding to 800 over time. First 10 revealed next week.
KRX vs ATS arbitrage will be key, with execution speed differences causing price dislocations, especially for KOSPI 200 stocks. Lower ATS fees may shift institutional flow, increasing arb opportunities.
On top of that, lack of market makers could widen bid-ask spreads, creating opportunities for spread scalpers to profit.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 07

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, Hexaware Technologies, Japan Eyewear Holdings , Toyo Sugar Refining, Yamaha Corp, WH Group, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Englewood Lab, Samsung Card Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
Hexaware Technologies IPO: Delisted in 2020; Now Looking to Raise US$1bn
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2025)
WellNeo Sugar (2117) To Buy Toyo Sugar (2107) – Too Cheap, No Synergies Paid, but Too Small
Yamaha Corp (7951) BIG Buyback May Be Followed By More Later
StubWorld: WH Group (288 HK) IPOs Smithfield (SFD US). Now What?
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index
A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea
Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿

Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Delisted in 2020; Now Looking to Raise US$1bn

In November 2020, HT Global IT Solutions acquired all the shares it did not own in Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) and delisted the stock from the NSE and BSE.
Now, Carlyle Group is looking to raise INR 87.5bn by selling stock at a price range of INR 674-708/share, valuing Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) at US$4.8bn.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in May and September, though the impact will be limited.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) and Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) continue to be in our watchlist of pre-event candidates for TOPIX Inclusions.
Separately, the TOPIX Liquidity factor removal event will take place in April 2025 and there could be some positive index flows for Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) during this event.

WellNeo Sugar (2117) To Buy Toyo Sugar (2107) – Too Cheap, No Synergies Paid, but Too Small

WellNeo Sugar (2117) today announced a deal to buy Toyo Sugar Refining (2107 JP) at a 27% premium. This is a small ¥11bn deal where insiders own 45%.
Normally I wouldn’t even talk about a deal this small but this one has something going for it. Two things actually.
And readers will have to read all the way down to the conclusions to find out the key one, but the setup is that it is too cheap.

Yamaha Corp (7951) BIG Buyback May Be Followed By More Later

Yesterday, Yamaha Corp (7951 JP) announced Q3 earnings (results, presentation, metrics), a change in full-year guidance (revs unch’d, OP -10.8%, NP -25%), and a large buyback.
9M Revenue up yoy but China sales slower OP up yoy (audio business, SG&A cuts), but FY revised lower due to restructuring (impairment, retirement expenses). Looks worse than it is.
The buyback is interesting, and large. And investors should be aware of the modalities.

StubWorld: WH Group (288 HK) IPOs Smithfield (SFD US). Now What?

After reducing the IPO price, and the placement size, WH Group (288 HK) has now completed the spin-off of Smithfield Foods (SFD US).
Preceding my comments on the WH Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and four changes for NIFTY 100. We expect the results to be announced in the next few days.

A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea

On 6 February, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) launched a partial tender offer on Englewood Lab (950140 KS).
Cosmecca Korea announced that it plans to purchase 11% (2.185 million) of Englewood Lab’s outstanding shares at the tender offer price of 10,000 won.
It appears that this partial tender offer is an attempt by Cosmecca Korea to increase its stake in Englewood Lab even further, capitalizing on the lower share price.

Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.
Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.
Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card’s value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 06

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Barito Renewables Energy, Netmarble , Toc Co Ltd, Fuji Soft Inc, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, Tohto Suisan, MS&AD Insurance, Young Poong and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300
TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes
Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates
Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿

Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at JPY4,300 per share, a 37.2% premium to the last close.
The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals (Japan, Taiwan) and Board recommendation (can be waived). The offer is scheduled to start on 7 May.
The offer represents an all-time high. The Board has three options: facilitate a friendly offer, find a white knight bidder or launch an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer.

TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes

7 years ago I wrote a big piece titled TOC’s BIGLY Buyback Makes It a Takeout Target. I thought the shareholder structure and buyback plans looked like a creeping takeover.
In December 2017, Effissimo had sold a very large stake back to the company. I wrote in March 2018. 10mos later they did another and I wrote again.
Since then they’ve bought back a bit more. Today they are buying back another 5%. It still looks like a potential takeover.

Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre

In Dec 2024, Bain announced it would overbid KKR’s bid without requiring Fuji Soft’s approval, backed by the founding family. In early Jan 2025, we got an anticipated start date.
That anticipated start date is upon us. KKR’s deal to close 7 Feb is now bumped to ¥9,800 and extended 7 days, suggesting Bain’s bid beacons.
I think they’ll have to go to ¥10,000 and from here there may not be much upside. I’d rather stay away.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share

4+ years ago Aso Corp launched a Tender Offer to buy 33.4% or up to 100% of marine products wholesaler Tohto Suisan (8038 JP). They got just over a third.
Then it became a zombie as I warned Tohto Suisan Partial Tender Offer – A Weird Tender Which Leads To Listed Zombie-Ism. But it moved around.
Today, Aso announces a tender to take out minorities, almost all of whom are other corporate holders. It’s at a 39% premium and 1.2x book. It should get done.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
171 new CGRs were filed since 31-Dec-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.

Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong

Must Asset Management, a 3% shareholder of Young Poong (000670 KS), started to go activist on the company on 5 February.
Based on current market cap, this would represent a P/B of 0.2x using the consolidated controlling interest equity of 3.9 trillion won!
There is some speculation that Must Asset Mgmt may form an alliance with Chairman Choi’s family as it proposed to Young Poong to recommend outside directors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 05

Most Read: Kyocera Corp, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Barito Renewables Energy, Tam Jai International, Vesync, Fuji Soft Inc, Proto Corp, LG CNS, Tecnos Japan, Netmarble and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer
Vesync (2148 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of The Scheme Vote
Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850
Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)
LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer
Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares

Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time).
Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That

Halfway through the review period, there could be 6 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June. The LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) listing could increase that number.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.1-26 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-11 days of ADV.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months and the performance gap is near its widest point.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer

Tam Jai International (2217 HK), an operator of Asia noodle specialty restaurants, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
On the 13th November 2024, Tam Jai announced 1H25 net profit – to 30th September 2024 – declined 55.8% yoy to HK$36.1mn, its lowest six-month tally since listing.
Toridoll Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) controls 74.61% of Tam Jai. Expect a Scheme to unfold. An Offer price around HK$1.50/share would be welcome. That’s probably a stretch.

Vesync (2148 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of The Scheme Vote

Back on the 27th December, Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliances, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Yang family controlling ~69.04% of Vesync.
The Cancellation Price of $5.60/share, declared final, was a 33.3% premium to undisturbed, and above the 2020 IPO price of HK$5.52/share.
The US anti-trust condition has now been fulfilled. The Scheme Doc dispatch has been extended to the 11 April. I estimate payment under the Offer late May.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

KKR & Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week.
Expect a final round of bids, as KKR’s offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR’s offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range.

Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)

Proto Corp (4298 JP) is not the name on people’s lips, but everyone who knows cars in Japan knows this company. They have run car mags for decades.
Now they do other things too but car magazines, websites, and associated data provision are worth 90% of OP. And they are ubiquitous, and growth has been good.
Management forecasts for growth are a damp squib. This is opportunistic.

LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO

In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Ant Capital at JPY1,155, a 38.7% premium to the last close.
The offer is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and represents a seven-year high.
Ant has secured irrevocables from the top three shareholders. However, the largest shareholder’s irrevocable has a counteroffer and share price clause, which could result in a competing bid.

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February