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• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.
• SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.
• Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU). 
• Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
• Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event.

• With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December.
• There may not be any intra-review changes following the Hyundai Heavy Industries/ Hyundai Mipo merger due to timing and also due to Samsung Biologics‘ spinoff being added to the index.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSPI2 INDEX over the last few months and in the short-term too.

• LG Chem is considering on paying higher dividends using sale proceeds from LG Energy Solution. 
• This breaks the company’s principle of using only ordinary income from operating activities as a source for dividends.
• If indeed LG Chem goes ahead with this plan, this would be as a result of heightened demands from major activist investors including Palliser Capital.

• SK D&D announced the results of the delisting tender offer by Hahn & Co. SK &D mentioned that the subscription reached only 40% of the planned tender offer amount.
• Post failed tender offer for SK D&D by Hahn & Co, we expect this to have a positive impact on SK D&D’s share price.
• The major reason for this is that there are still many investors that believe that SK D&D’s shares are significantly undervalued at P/B of only 0.4x.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 

• There is an end of a lock-up period for 55.3 million shares (33% of outstanding shares) for SK Innovation (096770 KS) starting 20 November 2025.
• This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
• SK Innovation is currently trading at relatively high valuation multiples. We remain Bearish on SK Innovation.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Bank Central Asia, Bank Mandiri, Emtek, Bumi Resources, Bank Syariah Indonesia, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera and Medikaloka Hermina.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• A massive rally in Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) should see the stock added to a global index in November and then to another country ETF in December.
• With one exception, Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) has outperformed its peers over the last 6 months. With large buying to come, that could continue in the short-term.
• There is positioning in Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) and its peers. With continued momentum in the stock, the path of least resistance is higher.

• Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event.

• Softcare (SOFT HK) is looking to raise up to US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is an international hygiene product corporation with a focus on fast-growing Emerging Markets including Africa, Latin America and Central Asia. 
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• LG Chem is considering on paying higher dividends using sale proceeds from LG Energy Solution. 
• This breaks the company’s principle of using only ordinary income from operating activities as a source for dividends.
• If indeed LG Chem goes ahead with this plan, this would be as a result of heightened demands from major activist investors including Palliser Capital.

• Binjiang Service is a high-growth property management firm with a strong brand in the premium segment of the Yangtze River Delta, benefiting from the stable pipeline of its reputable parent developer, Binjiang Real Estate.
• The company is strategically shifting its focus towards high-margin ‘5S’ value-added services (VAS), particularly in soft decoration and community living, to offset declining revenues and margins in its non-owner VAS segment.
• While demonstrating robust top-line growth and a generous dividend policy, the company faces significant risks from the broader downturn in China’s property market, intense industry competition, and rising operational costs.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
• We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
• We highlighted EPS revision on SUPCON TECHNOLOGY, SHENGYI ELECTRONICS, TRANSSION, TRINA SOLAR, CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES, Trina Solar, Shengyi Electronics, Cambricon Technologies, Transsion, Supcon Technology.

• Nidec (6594 JP)‘s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)‘s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It’ll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
• Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
• The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.

• As widely speculated, Cosette asserted to Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) on the 17th May a Material Adverse Change (MAC) has occurred.
• Mayne disagrees, and views the pre-requisites for a MAC, as defined in the SID, have not been established. 
• What now? The Scheme is not terminated. Both parties remain in consultation. If those talks are not satisfactory (say, a price reduction [my guess]), Cosette said it will walk. 

• The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
• Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

• In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
• In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
• This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 

• Four weeks ago, CVC announced a family-led MBO of hair care and cosmetics company Mandom Corp (4917 JP) at a price which was decidedly too light, well below company plans.
• One activist wrote a letter clearly calling them out for accepting a low-ball price well below the Medium Term Management Plan target. Another bought a lot of shares. 
• On 25 September, Murakami-san and affiliates reported an 8.39% position. Seven trading days later it is 16.59% and the shares are up small from my last piece + 1. 

• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• HHI–Mipo merger overlaps Dec review: Mipo dropped Nov 26, desk holds cash, rebal Dec 12, new HHI shares list Dec 15 but capped at 10%.
• No ad-hoc replacement for Mipo Nov 26; Dec review will add a new name, likely Sejin Heavy (075580 KS), with no other significant flows flagged.
• Sejin Heavy’s recent post-rally volume cools; passive inflow ~1.5x DTV may trigger visible price action, with potential front-running 1–2 days ahead of Dec 12 ETF rebal.

• Today partway through the day, Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP), Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) announced Daiwa House would buy out Sumitomo Densetsu for ¥9,760/share. 
• Sumitomo Electric will sell its stake to the company ¥6,877/share. Minorities get 11.9x Mar26 EBITDA. The Bidder is buying at 9.9x. 
• At an ATH, and a nice premium, and 3x book, this looks like a pretty good takeout price. Daiwa House has plans for it.

• Today after the close, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP), with 110,000 employees, announced a buyout of a small “labour-intensive” AI/ML sysdev business with 200+ data scientists.
• Brainpad Inc (3655 JP) is being bought out from its co-founders and others at a near-100% premium. Not an all-time high, but not a low price.
• Somewhat heavily shorted, this will trade tight, but I expect nobody will come over the top. 

• KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.
• SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.
• Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.

• Central bankers broadly delivered on expectations this week, while cautioning that changes will likely be less than markets assume. The BOJ and ECB were also cautious.
• Flash EA inflation slowed, as expected, but services and core stoked hawkish pressure, while money and credit data in the EA and UK show accommodation of inflation.
• Next week’s BoE decision is no longer priced as a forgone conclusion, but the case to cut is weak. Like its peers, the BoE should cautiously damp dovish expectations.

• The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
• Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

• In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
• The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
• The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns. 

• A massive rally in Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) should see the stock added to a global index in November and then to another country ETF in December.
• With one exception, Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) has outperformed its peers over the last 6 months. With large buying to come, that could continue in the short-term.
• There is positioning in Chroma Ate Inc (2360 TT) and its peers. With continued momentum in the stock, the path of least resistance is higher.

• Yesterday after the close, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced it would buy out minorities in Scsk Corp (9719 JP) at ¥5,700/share.   
• As a “parent takes out subsidiary” deal, this was not unexpected at some point in time. The register looks like there may be a number of people who expected that.
• This gets done pretty easily. It is not a bad price. 

• Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

• In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
• SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
• The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.

• Today with the earnings announcement, Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) announced it would buy out minorities in Sumitomo Riko Company (5191 JP), its rubber products subsidiary. 
• The price is low, and especially so when one considers the significant net receivables and inventory number (about 2mos of revenue, but one turn of annual EBITDA).
• Crossholders and insiders, however, own nearly 15% of the company, and that makes blocking this deal difficult, despite its low price, and lack of synergies considered in the price.

• Today partway through the day, Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP), Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) announced Daiwa House would buy out Sumitomo Densetsu for ¥9,760/share. 
• Sumitomo Electric will sell its stake to the company ¥6,877/share. Minorities get 11.9x Mar26 EBITDA. The Bidder is buying at 9.9x. 
• At an ATH, and a nice premium, and 3x book, this looks like a pretty good takeout price. Daiwa House has plans for it.

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a secondary placement.
• This represents 0.9 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and  0.3% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Today after the close, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP), with 110,000 employees, announced a buyout of a small “labour-intensive” AI/ML sysdev business with 200+ data scientists.
• Brainpad Inc (3655 JP) is being bought out from its co-founders and others at a near-100% premium. Not an all-time high, but not a low price.
• Somewhat heavily shorted, this will trade tight, but I expect nobody will come over the top. 

• Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
• A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
• Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.

• In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
• In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
• This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 

• Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR’s lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming? 
• Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. 
• This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR’s last bit. Perhaps to come soon?

• With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in December.
• Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
• The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.

• A global index provider will announce its quarterly review on 5 November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24 November 2025.
• We make predictions every week for the following index rebalance and publish them along with predictions for 100 other indices. 
• This insight shows our whole set of predictions across 47 countries for the next rebalance. Most of these names are unchanged since our early September predictions. 

• In response to the Nikkei report, Scsk Corp (9719 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) at JPY5,700, a 31.5% premium to the last close.
• The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high. 
• An attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 30 October to 12 December, with payment commencing from 19 December.

• After ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer from PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, was expected. 
• And this is what unfolded. Centurium, together with Temasek and Singapore-based asset manager True Light, are offering HK$12.18/share (best & final) via a Scheme, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed.
• A scrip alternative is present (mix & match). This is a pre-conditional Offer: it requires SAMR signing off. The FA is JPM. This should help smooth over the reg process.

• HD Hyundai merger: both legs in index, Mipo delists, slot opens — one new name gets added to KOSPI200 via ad‑hoc.
• Sanil Electric (062040 KS) to replace HD Mipo pre‑Dec review. If DTV settles back into the 500–600k range, then KS200 ETFs will need to scoop ~0.3–0.4x DTV on Nov 26.
• Better to front‑run KRX; with AI power trade still hot, Nov 20 announcement likely sparks outsized price action vs waiting for rebalance print.

• AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), which operates a network of insurance “matchmakers”, has announced a NBIO, via a Scheme, from EQT @ A$45/share, a ~40% premium to undisturbed.
• That indicative price is up from $43/share proposed on the 13th September (but not made public). 
• AUB’s board has opted to open its books to EQT, on an exclusive basis, for six weeks. Tentatively, that expires on or around the 9th December. 

• On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.
• Given SK Planet’s limited financial resources, it is likely that SK Square will provide funding to SK Planet through a capital increase.
• However, the biggest factor driving SK Square’s share price right now is the continued surge in SK Hynix’s share price. 

• The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
• Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

• In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
• In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
• This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 

• On Friday, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Aug-25 earnings and a combination ¥45-50bn primary+secondary offering worth 5.3mm shares, 6x ADV, and a float increase of 37%. Shares fell 15% today.
• 2yrs ago they did a large offering. It went well. They’d had a ridiculous plan to grow OP 6x from ¥3.5bn to ¥20bn in 2yrs to Aug-26. Then by Aug-25. 
• They got to ¥8.5bn in Aug-24 and now ¥18.9bn in Aug-25 and now guide to ¥26.5bn in Aug-26 (the original plan having been ¥20bn). 

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Bank Central Asia, Bank Mandiri, Emtek, Bumi Resources, Bank Syariah Indonesia, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera and Medikaloka Hermina.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• As reported by Brian Freitas, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the Nikkei 225 and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).
• The date  of replacement is November 5, the Nikkei will experience passive flows, in this insight we want to have a look at the possible moves caused by this catalyst.
• At the moment the index is overbought, according to our models.

• TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Near Levels to Open Fresh ADR Spread Short
• ASE: +0.3% Premium; Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
• ChipMOS: -7.5% Discount; Local Shares Rally Makes ADR Deeply Discounted

• Japanese markets are seeing significant developments, including Nikkei 225 rebalancing with Nidec’s removal due to alert and Ibiden’s addition, impacting tracking funds, delta one trading strategies, and investors with position.
• The BoJ’s cautious normalization path continues to shape the JGB curve, with a notable steepening in the long end affecting asset-liability management.
• We detail the trades and execution of the trade idea, which may require special attention this week especially on the rebalance.

• The Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) Board has responded to SilverCape’s hostile offer by proposing countermeasures ostensibly to protect the interests of minorities.
• The precedent Makino countermeasures against Nidec’s hostile offer were intended to buy time for a higher white-knight offer. In this case, it is being done to facilitate a lower offer.  
• The countermeasures will severely dent SilverCape’s chances of succeeding. Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)’s irrevocables and insiders should be sufficient to pass the shareholder vote to implement the countermeasures. 

• In response to an AFR article, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from EQT (EQT SS) at A$45.00.
• While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT’s history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution. 
• The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk. 

• Chey Tae‑won’s Korea–Japan integration push is fresh tape—unpriced and unconsumed—unlike the exhausted dividend tax story, making it the real policy‑momentum trade to watch.
• Korea’s export model is fading, but a $6T Korea–Japan bloc plus CPTPP buzz offers a fresh policy‑momentum catalyst, with AI/data angles luring incremental global flows.
• Korea–Japan cooperation isn’t a real bloc yet, but it trades like a policy theme—Chey’s 3PRO push makes it a headline‑driven short‑term play ripe for desks.

• The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
• Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
• The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

• In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
• In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
• This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 

• Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are two additions for the index and there will also be capping changes for some stocks.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 26.3% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$813m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
• The index has broken out of the secular downtrend, but investors continue to redeem units from the ETFs tracking the index.

• Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
• There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
• Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

• On Friday, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Aug-25 earnings and a combination ¥45-50bn primary+secondary offering worth 5.3mm shares, 6x ADV, and a float increase of 37%. Shares fell 15% today.
• 2yrs ago they did a large offering. It went well. They’d had a ridiculous plan to grow OP 6x from ¥3.5bn to ¥20bn in 2yrs to Aug-26. Then by Aug-25. 
• They got to ¥8.5bn in Aug-24 and now ¥18.9bn in Aug-25 and now guide to ¥26.5bn in Aug-26 (the original plan having been ¥20bn). 

• In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
• The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn’t truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. 
• The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. 

• Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 181.05m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$829m at a valuation of US$7.95bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 382-402/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

• Last week, London-based activist Palliser Capital tapped LG Chem (051910 KS) to remedy its NAV market discount. Palliser also said it now holds a little over 1% in LG Chem.
• LG Chem’s large NAV discount is well known. It has been present since ~82%-held LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) was listed in January 2022. 
• An obvious solution is to pare down the LGES stake, and buy back shares. Yet the discount remains as the market views management as being (stubbornly) set in their ways.

• HMC buyback ~₩0.8–1.0tn (~1.5% SO). Street focus is ord/pref split, with prefs at ~25% discount. Mgmt urgency: lift equity value as K‑market rallies.
• Narrowing the pref gap seen as the cleanest lever—shareholder‑friendly signal, draws real money/offshore flows, de‑risks policy optics—so locals expect the first buyback leg skewed to prefs.
• Street sees HMC aiming mid‑teens pref discount via year‑end pref‑heavy buyback and dividend tax reform. Catalysts make narrowing trend look achievable.

• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
• The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
• The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

• Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are two additions for the index and there will also be capping changes for some stocks.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 26.3% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$813m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
• The index has broken out of the secular downtrend, but investors continue to redeem units from the ETFs tracking the index.

• KeePer Technical Laboratory (6036 JP) has switched its allegiance from the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO by agreeing to accept the higher Effissimo offer. 
• KeePer’s change of heart sets a huge precedent and signals that irrevocables are unenforceable and fiduciary duty outweighs a promise to tender.
• Nevertheless, the outcome is still not set in stone. Effissimo’s chances of success have increased, but the MBO still retains a long-shot chance of success.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We now expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A and special situation events likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Japan’s defense budget may be set to surge by about 50%, making NOF’s ammunition business a hot theme.
• Be careful though. NOF’s munitions segment faces production limits and slow capacity expansion, capping near-term profit growth even with new defense spending.
• We think NOF is overvalued, even as we acknowledge consensus forecasts are probably too low. But shorting now would probably just be fighting the tape. Save this idea for later.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK). 

• Yamaha Motor (7272) | Silchester raised stake to 8.8%; shares down 20% despite core motorcycles/marine generating 20-30% ROIC, undermined by ¥62bn losses in RVs/Robotics.
• Tamron (7740) | Effissimo increased holding to 13%; company trades at 6x EBIT with 20%+ margins, expanding from camera lenses into automotive ADAS and industrial optics.
• NPC (6255) | LIM acquired 6% stake in solar equipment maker down 20% year-to-date, betting on perovskite cycle recovery despite withdrawn guidance and customer weakness.

• Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
• There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
• Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
• The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
• With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
• There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
• The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

• After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
• Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
• There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

• The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
• Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
• While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.

• The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November. 
• China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
• Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

• Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
• With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
• There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.

• Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago. 
• The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
• There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.

• The increase in the stock price over the last 3 months could result in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) being added to a global index in November.
• There is a fair amount to buy in the stock and cumulative excess volume has picked up since July. Short interest has dropped over the same period.
• The recent drop in the stock price provides a better entry point for a short-term trade as positioning builds up ahead of the potential passive buying.

• Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK) entered into an exclusive global license agreement with Dianthus Therapeutics to jointly advance LBL-047, a first and potentially best-in-class pre-clinical asset.
• Leads Biolabs will receive upfront and potential near-term milestone payments up to $38M and an additional $962M in total development and regulatory approval milestones and sales-based milestones across multiple indications.
• Promising autoimmune drug candidate and sufficient cash runway make Dianthus a suitable outlicensing partner for Leads Biolabs. Since LBL-047 is a pre-clinical asset, the upfront payment seems competitive. 

• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
• The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
• With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
• There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

• Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.   
• But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
• Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect at least six index changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.

• When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard. 
• But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
• Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.

• Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago. 
• The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
• There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.

• Gov’t likely to ease CVC rules; street chatter sees high odds. Tied to KRW150tn Growth Fund push, with corporates lobbying—cleanest path to juice capital flow.
• Holdcos at center of CVC‑easing; scrapping disclosure rule unlocks external capital. Street read: fast flip from control towers to re‑rating plays as real investment shops with growth portfolios.
• KFTC flags 177 holdcos, 14 with CVCs (13 listed). Street sees momentum flows hitting these 13 names; play via basket/overweight, with Doosan, Hyosung, LX as preferred plays.

• After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals. 
• The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
• Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026. 

• On the 31sr July, Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.
• Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.
• The Scheme Document’s now out, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable”. It probably is.

• Joy City Property (207 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback by way of a scheme at HK$0.62 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 17 November. 
• While the offer implies a P/B of 0.29x, it is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
• Nevertheless, there remains vote risk and caution is warranted. At the current price and for a 4 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 8.8%/103.6%.