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CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares

CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade

Following multiple amendments to the methodology, there could be 4 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 18.1% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 173.2bn (US$5.56bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.

UK Disinflationary Kool-Aid

By Phil Rush

UK disinflation relied on smaller utility price hikes and only went as far as the 3.6% forecast before September’s dovish surprise. It does not mean a path to 2% lies ahead.
A broad rebound in price increases took the annualised median impulse above 4% to average 2.5% over two months, or 3% on the year, as the underlying problem persists.
The BoE’s December decision pivots around the Governor, who seemingly needs upside news to avoid delivering a cut, so this outcome preserves that riskily dovish course.

[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%

On 20 October, Murakami Group reported they’d gone over 5% in cash/asset-rich DeNA (2432 JP). Not easy with insiders+Crossholders at 39%, passive at 24%. But not impossible.
On 30 October, they reported they’d gone to 6.31% on 23 October (four days before they reported the 5%.
As reported here before, Murakami-san sometimes does what might charitably be called a headfake, less charitably a Pump ‘n Dump.

Genes Tech’s (8257) Rare Arm’s-Length Offer

Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK), a turnkey solutions provider, has announced a rare, arm’s-length Offer, by way of a Scheme.
The Offeror, privately-held Tinicum, is offering HK$0.245/share (not declared final), a 87% premium to last close, and a four-plus-year high.
Irrevocables comprising 69.79% of the register are supportive. Super clean deal

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
In December 2021, Shinsei Bank was privatised by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) through a contentious tender offer at JPY2,800 per share.
The investment case rests on growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, accelerating revenue growth, rising margins and improving asset quality.

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Nov 19

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Hongqiao, Capricorn Metals, Digital Holdings Inc, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Daihen Corp, Isupetasys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up
CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares
[Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%
KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December
[Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): Hakuhodo Bumps and Lowers the Minimum Tendering Condition

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).

CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares

CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%

Today after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced changes to the terms of its Tender Offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), which faces an overbidder in SilverCape.
Hakuhodo had bid ¥1,970. Silvercape came over the top with a proposed ¥2,380 but a delay for approvals. DH is fighting against SilverCape because of “remaining minority shareholder risk.”
That’s garbage. Utter blatherskite. Trumpworthy trumpery. Now Hakuhodo DY has lowered the minimum threshold making it hard to miss, and raised the price 2.3% to ¥2,015.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

[Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float

Yesterday saw the announcement of a secondary offering structured like a delayed pricing ABO.
1.5mm shares which is 7.5% of shares out, 25% of Max Real World Float, and 9 days of ADV. There’s more cross-holdings to come out later at some point.
Though it is not particularly expensive, Momentum is not this stock’s friend right now.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): Hakuhodo Bumps and Lowers the Minimum Tendering Condition

Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) increased its Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) tender offer price by 2.3% to JPY2,015, 7.1% below the last close and 15.3% below SilverCape’s JPY2,380 offer.
The lower limit has been reduced to a 24.67% ownership ratio. Hakuhodo’s confidence in passing the EGM share consolidation vote relies on AGM voting trends and passive votes.
Hakuhodo’s acceptances as of 28 October exceed the lower limit. The revised Hakudodo offer will severely dent the chances of SilverCape’s offer.

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Nov 18

Most Read: SBI Shinsei Bank, Tsuruha Holdings, Verisilicon Microelectronics S, Guotai Junan Securities , China Hongqiao, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Alibaba, Capricorn Metals, Atlas Arteria and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December
CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move
China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up
Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December

There could be up to 4 constituent changes for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in December. The announcement of the changes will be made after market close on 28 November.
There will be between 0.1-0.35x ADV to trade in the changes but some of the forecast adds will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other indices.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in July and August before giving up all the gains (and more) in a near one-way move over the last month.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.
There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)
Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders’ expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
Get ready for Alibaba‘s earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.

China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

By Nicholas Tan

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal.
However, IFM’s request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.

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Nov 17

Most Read: Maruwn Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines , SBI Shinsei Bank, Mandom Corp, Pacific Industrial, Guotai Junan Securities , Verisilicon Microelectronics S and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms
CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade
STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics
Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak as Tech Bounces

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback

By Dimitris Ioannidis

TSE has approved the relisting of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), which is scheduled to go public on 17 December 2025 with an anticipated market cap of $8.4bn.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is forecasted to achieve fast-entry in one Global index in December.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) may be included in the other Global index at the next review, subject to float cap risk.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).

[Japan M&A/Activism] – Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms

The Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) “MBO” was egregiously mis-priced. I was surprised the family did it but on 23 October, they increased their bid by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share.
The stock was at ¥2,735 after activist Effissimo had built a 13% stake at ¥2365. The day after the announcement, the stock opened up through terms and continues to climb.
Effissimo responded 4 days later, buying 2% of voting rights as the stock climbed past ¥3,000, another 1% later. Now the stock is 8+% through new terms. They’re not playing.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.
There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December

There could be up to 4 constituent changes for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in December. The announcement of the changes will be made after market close on 28 November.
There will be between 0.1-0.35x ADV to trade in the changes but some of the forecast adds will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other indices.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in July and August before giving up all the gains (and more) in a near one-way move over the last month.

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK) prices at the low end of the range, Klook (KLK US) seeks to raise US$400 million.
Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP), Maruwn Corp (9067 JP), Star Micronics (7718 JP).

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak as Tech Bounces

By Mark Chadwick

Stocks bounced off intraday lows; Tech stocks recovered with Nvidia +1.8%, Oracle +2.4%, Palantir +1% by the close
Investors still questioning elevated AI valuations, rising debt financing, and capex plans. Rate cut expectations receding.
JP Earnings season drawing to close. NVIDIA results due on Wednesday likely to be focus of the week.

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Nov 16

Most Read: Mandarin Oriental International, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Chroma Ate Inc, Tata Motors, Sungrow Power Supply, Broadex Technologies Co Ltd, Everyday Network Co Ltd A, Verisilicon Microelectronics S, SBI Shinsei Bank, ABLBio and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer
FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes
CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes in December
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback
ABL Bio: Equity Investment of 22 Billion Won from Eli Lilly

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer

A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming.
Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover.

FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums

There could be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in December. That could easily increase to 4.
Two of the forecast inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, increasing the impact. The third is a potential HSCEI INDEX add in December.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) have dropped ahead of lock-up expiry and there could be premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up

There could be 4 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December as positioning for buying by one set of index trackers pushes stocks into other indices.
There will be passive inflows in some of the forecast adds week after next and the flows from these index trackers will come a few weeks later.
With large AUMs tracking the dividend indices, stocks that have moved up a lot now have low dividend yields and there could be opposite flows from those index trackers.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse

With the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for Tata Motors (TTMT IN) could result in index deletion.
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) being added to the index instead.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes

With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
The largest flows will be in 2 stocks that are forecast adds for both indices. There are 14 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June to August, but there has been significant underperformance since then. Outperformance could resume as positioning kicks in prior to announcement.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December

There could be up to 7 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.8% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 535m. There are a couple of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast deletes have outperformed the forecast adds over the last 2 months and this is an attractive entry point as we near announcement date.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes in December

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) replacing Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH).
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.5x ADV in Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH).
There will be large selling in Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH) due to capping while there will be smaller inflows for the other index constituents.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback

By Dimitris Ioannidis

TSE has approved the relisting of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), which is scheduled to go public on 17 December 2025 with an anticipated market cap of $8.4bn.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is forecasted to achieve fast-entry in one Global index in December.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) may be included in the other Global index at the next review, subject to float cap risk.

ABL Bio: Equity Investment of 22 Billion Won from Eli Lilly

By Douglas Kim

On 14 November, ABLBio (298380 KS) announced that it has signed an equity investment agreement with Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US) worth 22 billion won (US$15 million).
ABL Bio will issue 175,079 new shares at 125,900 won per share (27% lower than current price). Despite the high valuation multiples, we maintain a Positive view on ABL Bio.
Its recent major technology agreement with Eli Lilly serves as strong validation from a leading global pharmaceutical company, confirming the significant market potential of ABL’s unique platform technology.

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Nov 15

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Maruwn Corp, Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co, Sungrow Power Supply, Everyday Network Co Ltd A, Genting Malaysia, Jinke Smart Services, Agnico Eagle Mines , Pine Labs, Klook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December
CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). The Offer Is Now Unconditional. The IFA Rejects Terms
Why Is Jinke Smart (9666 HK) Still Suspended?
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date
Pine Labs IPO Trading – Low/No Demand
Klook Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growth Has Been Very Strong

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes

The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 28 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 12 December.
There could be one delete each for the CSI Liquor Index and the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index. Plus capping changes for a bunch of stocks.
The entire sector has been under pressure over the last few years with every rally being sold into.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in December

There could be up to 7 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.8% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 535m. There are a couple of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast deletes have outperformed the forecast adds over the last 2 months and this is an attractive entry point as we near announcement date.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). The Offer Is Now Unconditional. The IFA Rejects Terms

Back on the 13th October 2025, Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, announced a conditional Offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
GENT offered RM2.35/share, a 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer had a 50% acceptance threshold. The Offer is now unconditional.
The Independent Advice Circular is now out. The IFA says NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. And to reject the Offer. The revised closing date is the 1st December.

Why Is Jinke Smart (9666 HK) Still Suspended?

Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties, (then) holding 37.86%, bought a 18.05% stake in Jinke at auction, subject to CSDC oversight. CSGC approval was received on the 19th September.
The Offer period has been twice extended. Prior to the second extension, shares were suspended. To date, no plausible reason has been given. So I tapped the FA for answers.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.

Pine Labs IPO Trading – Low/No Demand

Pine Labs raised around US$450m in its India IPO. Overall demand was weak.
Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Klook Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growth Has Been Very Strong

Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Nov 14

Most Read: Strategy, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Chroma Ate Inc, Star Micronics, Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co, Sungrow Power Supply, Maruwn Corp, Verisilicon Microelectronics S, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable
FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up
[Japan M&A] Taiyo Pacific Offers ¥2,210 for Star Micronics (7718) Completing the Shareholder Ripoff
CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December
[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes in December
StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable

In mid-September, global index provider M _ _ _ announced that they were conducting an index consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. I wrote about it here.
My recommended short at the time is down 30%, despite announcing a large buyback program. Others have lost significant premium vs underlying digital assets.
The same index provider expanded their list of affected names on 29 Oct. And a DIFFERENT Index provider this week added DATCOs to a US Advisory Panel Meeting Agenda Wednesday.

FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums

There could be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in December. That could easily increase to 4.
Two of the forecast inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, increasing the impact. The third is a potential HSCEI INDEX add in December.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) have dropped ahead of lock-up expiry and there could be premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up

There could be 4 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December as positioning for buying by one set of index trackers pushes stocks into other indices.
There will be passive inflows in some of the forecast adds week after next and the flows from these index trackers will come a few weeks later.
With large AUMs tracking the dividend indices, stocks that have moved up a lot now have low dividend yields and there could be opposite flows from those index trackers.

[Japan M&A] Taiyo Pacific Offers ¥2,210 for Star Micronics (7718) Completing the Shareholder Ripoff

Today after the close, well-known Japan engagement fund Taiyo Pacific Partners announced a deal to buy Star Micronics (7718 JP) for ¥2,210/share. They’ve been involved small-big-small for 20yrs.
The company launched a new capital plan and MTMP in February. Cash-rich, it needed no money to grow aggressively. So TPP proposed buying a third of the company. Board agreed.
Despite ActionsToImplementManagementConsciousOfSharePriceAndCostOfCapital announced February, in April-November the Board decided to sell the entire company to TPP at <1x book. This is borderline outrageous. It deserves notice and complaint.

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes

The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 28 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 12 December.
There could be one delete each for the CSI Liquor Index and the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index. Plus capping changes for a bunch of stocks.
The entire sector has been under pressure over the last few years with every rally being sold into.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.

UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom

By Phil Rush

UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.
Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.
Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes in December

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) replacing Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH).
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.5x ADV in Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH).
There will be large selling in Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH) due to capping while there will be smaller inflows for the other index constituents.

StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is up 101% on its 29th September listing. By my estimate, Zijin Mining (601899 CH)‘s average premium to NAV since Zijin Gold’s listing has been ~21%.
Preceding further commentary on Zijin Mining/Gold are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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Nov 13

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Light & Wonder , SK Hynix, Broadex Technologies Co Ltd, Giantec Semiconductor , Paris Miki Holdings, Chroma Ate Inc, Human Made, Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums
[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event – Updating The Assumptions/Estimates
Hynix L2 Flag Risk: Why Stuck Below ₩620k? Eyes on Nov 17 Pivot
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes
STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: One Change for December
[Japan M&A] Paris Miki Is Indeed an MBO Target; Luxottica May Complain But Tough To Block
Paris Miki (7455 JP): Chairman-Led MBO Likely Done Despite Luxottica’s Unclear Intentions
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up
Human Made Pre-IPO: A Bathing Ape, Reborn
CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes

FXI Rebalance Preview: New Listings, Potential Inclusions, H/A Premiums

There could be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in December. That could easily increase to 4.
Two of the forecast inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, increasing the impact. The third is a potential HSCEI INDEX add in December.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) have dropped ahead of lock-up expiry and there could be premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event – Updating The Assumptions/Estimates

Light & Wonder (LNW US) will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.
After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.
The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday.

Hynix L2 Flag Risk: Why Stuck Below ₩620k? Eyes on Nov 17 Pivot

By Sanghyun Park

Hynix tagged L2: cash‑only, no margin. >40% two‑day rip triggers KRX halt. L2 caps distort tape; Square’s Oct 27–Nov 10 run showed the messy playbook.
Hynix L2 review: five >200% YoY prints since Nov 4, but no fresh 15‑day high—₩620k from Nov 3 still the cap, yesterday stalled just below.
Break above ₩620k likely triggers L2, leverage caps, volatile tape, Square outperformance; hold below into Monday kills L2 risk, keeps Hynix’s relative bid with retail still piling in.

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes

With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
The largest flows will be in 2 stocks that are forecast adds for both indices. There are 14 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June to August, but there has been significant underperformance since then. Outperformance could resume as positioning kicks in prior to announcement.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: One Change for December

There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the December rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 2.5bn (US$352m). Passives need to trade between 0.3-0.4x ADV in the potential changes.
The forecast add and delete will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices and that will increase the impact on the stocks.

[Japan M&A] Paris Miki Is Indeed an MBO Target; Luxottica May Complain But Tough To Block

Today after the close, Paris Miki Holdings (7455 JP) announced the Tane family Holdco would buy out the company in an “MBO” at ¥581, or 4.8x current year EBITDA.
World famous eyeglass/sunglass manufacturer Luxottica bought 13.8% of the company in the low ¥300s almost stopping about a year ago. They might complain, but Paris Miki is a big outlet.
This looks like it gets done. The family+crossholders+ESOP+warrants have 65% of the expanded share count. Those who would complain would need to do so soon, and loudly.

Paris Miki (7455 JP): Chairman-Led MBO Likely Done Despite Luxottica’s Unclear Intentions

Paris Miki Holdings (7455 JP) has recommended a Chairman-led MBO at JPY581, a 48.6% premium to the last close price.
While the offer is arguably light as it is marginally below book value (P/B of 0.99x), it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
The offer represents a 10-year high. Luxottica Group (LUX IM), the second-largest shareholder, has not signalled whether it will tender, but it would struggle to derail the offer.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Big Overlapping Flows Coming Up

There could be 4 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December as positioning for buying by one set of index trackers pushes stocks into other indices.
There will be passive inflows in some of the forecast adds week after next and the flows from these index trackers will come a few weeks later.
With large AUMs tracking the dividend indices, stocks that have moved up a lot now have low dividend yields and there could be opposite flows from those index trackers.

Human Made Pre-IPO: A Bathing Ape, Reborn

By Hong Jie Seow

Human Made (456A JP) aims to raise around US$116m in its Japan IPO.
Human Made Inc. is a Japan-based apparel and lifestyle company. Its business model centers on producing high-value, limited-supply apparel and goods.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete & Some Big Capping Changes

The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 28 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 12 December.
There could be one delete each for the CSI Liquor Index and the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index. Plus capping changes for a bunch of stocks.
The entire sector has been under pressure over the last few years with every rally being sold into.

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Nov 12

Most Read: Xiaomi, Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp Ltd., Nationz Technologies Inc A, Tata Motors, Light & Wonder , Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., China Shengmu Organic Milk, Alibaba and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade
CSI500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes Early On, Then Hit a Wall
UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Outperform
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: One Change for Dec25; New Expected ADD/DELs for Mar26
[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event – Updating The Assumptions/Estimates
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Close Run Thing
On China Shengmu (1432)’s Conditional MGO
Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade

Following the methodology update for the HSIII Index, there could be up to 5 constituent changes in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$9.8bn (US$1.25bn).
Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest beneficiary of the new methodology while there will be large funding outflows for a lot of the current index constituents.

CSI500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes Early On, Then Hit a Wall

With the review period complete, we forecast 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI 1000 Index at the December rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.15% for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 10.22% for the CSI1000 Index. Gross round-trip trade across both indices is CNY 73.4bn (US$10.3bn).
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the outright forecast deletes over the last 6 months with most of the outperformance coming between June and August.

UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut

By Phil Rush

Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Outperform

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced on 28 November and implemented on 12 December.
We forecast 3 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 1.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 609m (US$85m).
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few weeks and stocks that have same-way flows from other index trackers could exhibit higher volatility near-term.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse

With the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for Tata Motors (TTMT IN) could result in index deletion.
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) being added to the index instead.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: One Change for Dec25; New Expected ADD/DELs for Mar26

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
We expect one index change in December 2025 translating to capping flows of US$530mn one-way.
We also expect seven index changes for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026.

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event – Updating The Assumptions/Estimates

Light & Wonder (LNW US) will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.
After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.
The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Close Run Thing

6.95%. That’s the key number at yesterday’s Scheme Meeting for Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK).
That’s still below the 10% blocking stake. But closer than the bankers and the market was anticipating.
Arguably, the terms were therefore bang on. Last day of trading is today, with payment on the 16th December.

On China Shengmu (1432)’s Conditional MGO

On the 30th October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) (CSM).
CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held.
The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle.

Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11

By Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.
Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.
Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.

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Nov 11

Most Read: Strategy, Xiaomi, Victory Giant Technology -A, Jardine Matheson Holdings, AUB Group Limited, Seres Group , SK Square , Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp Ltd., Forum Engineering Inc, LG Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 12 Changes a Side as Trade Nears US$10bn
On Jardine Matheson’s Latest Buyback
CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)
ECM Weekly (10 November 2025) – Seres, Pony, WeRide, Joyson, DIY, Maynilad, Northsand, Softcare
Square’s Level 2 Leverage Caps End Tomorrow — Fresh Near‑term Factor in the Square Vs Hynix Setup
CSI500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes Early On, Then Hit a Wall
[Japan M&A] KKR and Founder to Take Engineer Staffing Agency Forum Engineering (7088) Private
LG Corp: NAV Analysis Suggests a 29% Upside, Likely to Catch Up to LG Chem

Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable

In mid-September, global index provider M _ _ _ announced that they were conducting an index consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. I wrote about it here.
My recommended short at the time is down 30%, despite announcing a large buyback program. Others have lost significant premium vs underlying digital assets.
The same index provider expanded their list of affected names on 29 Oct. And a DIFFERENT Index provider this week added DATCOs to a US Advisory Panel Meeting Agenda Wednesday.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$1.25bn Trade

Following the methodology update for the HSIII Index, there could be up to 5 constituent changes in December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 12.8% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$9.8bn (US$1.25bn).
Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest beneficiary of the new methodology while there will be large funding outflows for a lot of the current index constituents.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 12 Changes a Side as Trade Nears US$10bn

There could be 12 changes at the December rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 2 index spots and a smaller number of changes in the other sectors.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.7% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 69.8bn (US$9.8bn). There are 8 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last 5 months while the forecast deletes have underperformed the index.

On Jardine Matheson’s Latest Buyback

On the 27th October, Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) announced an Offer for 88.04%-held Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.
MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND’s privatisation. And then some.
Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to complete in 2026.

CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)

On the 28th October 2025, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), an insurance “matchmaker”, announced a NBIO, via a Scheme, from EQT at A$45/share, a ~40% premium to undisturbed.
The share price has consistently traded wide to terms, not just because of the transactions’ indicative nature; but EQT’s track record on progressing from indicative to firm is not optimum.
This morning AUB announced CVC was teaming up with EQT, at $45/share; and concurrently requested additional due diligence. This has been granted by AUB.

ECM Weekly (10 November 2025) – Seres, Pony, WeRide, Joyson, DIY, Maynilad, Northsand, Softcare

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the deal flow continues unabated, although a lot of listing in Hong Kong didn’t do to well last week.
On the placements front, there were a number of deals, with a few right at lockup expiry.

Square’s Level 2 Leverage Caps End Tomorrow — Fresh Near‑term Factor in the Square Vs Hynix Setup

By Sanghyun Park

Square closed ₩290,000, missing all criteria; Level 2 removal effectively confirmed, with KRX disclosure expected ~8 p.m. Seoul, effective from tomorrow’s open.
Square vs Hynix hinges on retail chase structurally, but near‑term Square’s underperformance worsened by asymmetric leverage shackles.
Square’s Level 2 setup ends tomorrow; flows normalize, likely giving Square more juice vs Hynix. Key spot to watch from tomorrow’s open.

CSI500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes Early On, Then Hit a Wall

With the review period complete, we forecast 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI 1000 Index at the December rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.15% for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 10.22% for the CSI1000 Index. Gross round-trip trade across both indices is CNY 73.4bn (US$10.3bn).
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the outright forecast deletes over the last 6 months with most of the outperformance coming between June and August.

[Japan M&A] KKR and Founder to Take Engineer Staffing Agency Forum Engineering (7088) Private