Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: EcoPro Materials, Irc Ltd, Schlumberger Ltd, Ocean Power Technologies, Pulsar Helium, Tata Steel Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Spotting Position Patterns: TIGER Battery ETF January Review & KODEX ETF’s March Rebalancing
  • IRC (1029 HK)’s MBO’s MGO: Still An Avoid
  • [Earnings Preview] Intl. & Offshoring Markets to Drive Stunning Earnings for Schlumberger in Q423
  • Update Note – Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.
  • Pulsar Helium Inc. – Additional Equity Provides Funding for Key Well Test and Additional Drilling
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Steel Thailand


Spotting Position Patterns: TIGER Battery ETF January Review & KODEX ETF’s March Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • TIGER ETF (305540) rebalanced on January 11th, with Ecopro Materials correcting by 4%, contrasting a 20% surge from Jan 8-10. TIGER recorded net purchases aligning with a 2% inclusion weight.
  • Preemptive positions by local hedge funds were observed from Jan 8-10, closing on the 11th. Despite a KOSPI decline and minimal sector movement, Ecopro Materials exhibited this unusual price pattern.
  • Observing this pattern implies a potential recurrence during the March rebalancing of KODEX ETF. Notably, local hedge funds may initiate similar preemptive positions. We should consider this in position setup.

IRC (1029 HK)’s MBO’s MGO: Still An Avoid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 1st November, Nikolai Levitskii, Russian iron-ore play IRC (1029 HK)‘s chairman and largest shareholder, acquired 4.72% of shares out, lifting his stake above 30%, triggering an MGO.
  • The Offer is conditional on Levitskii holding more than 50% of shares out. His intention is to maintain IRC’s listing. At the first close, he held 35.77% (5.16% had tendered). 
  • The current spread is 9.2%. MIC, with 16.67% of shares out, has yet to tender. Nor do I expect them to. Plus IRC is on the OFAC sanction list. Avoid.

[Earnings Preview] Intl. & Offshoring Markets to Drive Stunning Earnings for Schlumberger in Q423

By Suhas Reddy

  • Growth is expected to be fueled by robust performance in international markets. Management expects revenue growth for 2023 to cross 15% YoY.
  • Pretax operating margins in Q42023 to get a boost from higher year-end digital sales and seasonal product and equipment sales.
  • The analyst consensus on the stock’s growth is overwhelmingly bullish given the expectation of strong growth in international and offshore segments.

Update Note – Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPT) substantially completed its research and development (R&D) phase and has witnessed meaningful progress in orders, pipeline, and backlog across its business.
  • Additionally, the company has reallocated headcount toward execution and commercialization to bolster its next phase of evolution.
  • OPT’s cutting-edge suite of products provides comfort against macro headwinds and also positions the company for commercial success and profitability in 2025.

Pulsar Helium Inc. – Additional Equity Provides Funding for Key Well Test and Additional Drilling

By Auctus Advisors

  • Pulsar Helium is raising C$4.255 mm of new equity through a placement of 18.5 mm new unit at a price of C$0.23 per unit.
  • Each unit consists of one share and one warrant with a strike price of C$0.36 per share. The warrants have a duration of 24 months.
  • The proceeds of the raise will allow the company to fund the well test of the high impact Jetstream#1 appraisal well scheduled to spud in February at the Topaz project in Minnesota. 

Morning Views Asia: Tata Steel Thailand

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Food Empire Holdings, Kbr Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Taking Stock of Singapore’s Trade Contraction in 2023
  • KBR Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy


Taking Stock of Singapore’s Trade Contraction in 2023

By Geoff Howie

  • While Singapore’s exports have lagged behind Taiwan and Korea in Nov-Dec 2023, they have showed signs of recovery after a year of steep drops.
  • External factors also affect the prospects of the iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index’s most traded stocks.
  • Some of the most traded index stocks, such as Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Dyna-Mac and Food Empire, have high P/B ratios compared to their historical averages, indicating strong market valuation.

KBR Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on KBR Inc, a renowned provider of scientific, technology, and engineering solutions to governments and commercial customers.
  • The company’s third Quarter 2023 earnings conference call shared interesting highlights about the company’s progress and future prospects.
  • KBR’s President and CEO, Stuart Bradie, emphasized on the company’s Zero Harm moment, highlighting KBR’s commitment to space sustainability and security.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Healthequity Inc, The Beauty Health Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • HealthEquity Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The Future of Health Savings! – Major Drivers
  • Beauty Health Co (The) (SKIN) – Thursday, Oct 19, 2023


HealthEquity Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The Future of Health Savings! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on cloud-based tech service provider, HealthEquity.
  • Despite uncertainties, such as negative market action, which resulted in the sequential reduction of invested HSA assets by $0.6 billion, HealthEquity reported that HSA members continued to invest their assets, thereby partially offsetting market declines.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Beauty Health Co (The) (SKIN) – Thursday, Oct 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • The Beauty Health Co (BH) operates on a recurring revenue model, generating consistent income from its consumables business.
  • The company is currently undervalued in the market, offering potential value for investors.
  • BH holds a dominant position in its category and can take advantage of scale and network advantages.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Budweiser Brewing APAC , APR, Amer Sports , Ginebra San Miguel , Berli Jucker, Dada Nexus , Food Empire Holdings, Duolingo, Performance Food Group Co, Floor & Decor Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang
  • Why Is APR IPO Getting Delayed?
  • Amer Sports IPO Preview
  • Ginebra San Miguel Inc. (GSMI) – Thursday, Oct 19, 2023
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Well-Crafted Consumer Package
  • Two New Chinese Stocks
  • Taking Stock of Singapore’s Trade Contraction in 2023
  • Duolingo Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers
  • Performance Food Group Company: Initiation of Coverage – Revolutionizing Convenience Foodservice
  • Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – A Tale Of Explosive Store Expansion! – Major Drivers


Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

By Brian Freitas


Why Is APR IPO Getting Delayed?

By Douglas Kim

  • APR announced it will delay its IPO. Now, APR’s book building has been postponed to 2 to 8 February. The IPO price range remains the same.
  • The company has provided updated preliminary sales and operating profits for 2023 in the revised IPO prospectus. Revenue was a bit light but OP was better than expected in 4Q23.
  • Our base case valuation of APR is 370,809 won per share which represents an 85% upside from the high end of the bankers’ valuation range (200,000 won).

Amer Sports IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • The biggest risk for Amer Sports is its excessive leverage. It had net debt of $5.9 billion and equity of only $8.8 million at the end of 3Q 2023.
  • Many investors are likely to emphasize the negatives more (especially the excessive leverage and inconsistent operating margins), rather than the positives such as China representing increasing percentage of total sales. 
  • Amer Sports is trying to raise nearly $1 billion in this IPO which could value the company at about $10 billion. 

Ginebra San Miguel Inc. (GSMI) – Thursday, Oct 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • GSMI is a leader in the Filipino spirits industry and is best known for its flagship brand Ginebra San Miguel, the largest gin brand in the world by sales volume.
  • Local companies, including GSMI, Tanduay, and Emperador, dominate the spirits industry in the Philippines.
  • Despite lacking global brand recognition, GSMI holds a strong position in the local market, although smaller players such as The Keepers Inc. importing foreign brands may pose competition in the long run.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Well-Crafted Consumer Package

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker remains a core proxy for consumer recovery and increasing tourism numbers in Thailand, with earnings set to recover in 2024 driven by modern retail and packaging.
  • Modern retail through Big C has resumed its expansion momentum across all formats with Big C Mini driving growth and supporting its omnichannel efforts, with rental income also recovering.
  • The packaging business was impacted by the sluggish Vietnamese economy which impacted aluminium cans but new products and strong performance from glass should support growth in 2024. Valuations look depressed.

Two New Chinese Stocks

By Turtles all the way down

  • (I didn’t want to send it out right away, because I wanted to proofread my post before sending it, and unfortunately DADA is already up 10% since writing 🙁 )
  • Recently Dada Nexus (DADA) , a Chinese last mile delivery service and on demand retail platform reported that about 500mn RMB ($70mn US) of revenue and costs were overstated for the first 3 reported quarters of 2023.
  • This news came right after 2 JD executives had taken over management of the company in December last year.

Taking Stock of Singapore’s Trade Contraction in 2023

By Geoff Howie

  • While Singapore’s exports have lagged behind Taiwan and Korea in Nov-Dec 2023, they have showed signs of recovery after a year of steep drops.
  • External factors also affect the prospects of the iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index’s most traded stocks.
  • Some of the most traded index stocks, such as Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Dyna-Mac and Food Empire, have high P/B ratios compared to their historical averages, indicating strong market valuation.

Duolingo Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Duolingo, a leading language learning app inventor, recorded a spectacular Q3.
  • The company’s revenue growth has caused it to revise earnings predictions upward, forecasting a 40% year-over-year growth.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Performance Food Group Company: Initiation of Coverage – Revolutionizing Convenience Foodservice

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the Performance Food Group Company (PFG).
  • The company delivered its fiscal first quarter 2024 earnings and in their earnings call, the company’s management highlighted the company’s strong financial results in the quarter, despite challenging macroeconomic dynamics.
  • PFG’s top line performance slightly missed its guidance range, though its adjusted EBITDA surpassed the high end of the guidance range.

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – A Tale Of Explosive Store Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Floor & Decor Holdings, a multi-channel specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories.
  • The company posted its fiscal 2023 third quarter results.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Financials: DBS, HDFC Bank, Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group, Japan Exchange Group, Bitcoin Pro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN and ANZ
  • HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds
  • Japanese Regional Banks – Three Key Positive Picks
  • Japan Governance | Will Reforms Unlock Valuations
  • Crypto Moves #11 – One Week Into the ETFs


Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN and ANZ

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with ASEAN and ANZ after having looked at other regions earlier.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) stock was down over -8% yesterday and is down over -3% today. The stock seems to have reacted to low deposit growth (~2% QoQ) in Q3FY24 .
  • Post the merger with HDFC Ltd that completed in Jun 2023, HDFCB needs to grow its deposits at a fast pace to support its loan growth.
  • We think HDFCB is well placed to do so. It also has an option to raise capital through affordable housing bonds which have good economics, similar to term deposits.

Japanese Regional Banks – Three Key Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • We explore twelve Japanese regional banks to look for key beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook, along with valuations, credit quality and capital adequacy
  • The global interest rate outlook is in some flux, with the Fed’s and ECB’s prospects of near-term easing being tempered; this should support Japanese JGB yields and domestic bank valuations
  • We are positive on three banks that are big beneficiaries of rising domestic interest rates; top pick Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Gunma Bank and higher risk option Suruga Bank

Japan Governance | Will Reforms Unlock Valuations

By Mark Chadwick

  • Reforms Drive Improvement: Japan’s corporate reforms, catalyzed by governance codes and TSE pressure, are fostering capital efficiency, shareholder value, and long-term equity gains.
  • “Name and Shame” Initiative Impact: TSE’s disclosure initiative reveals 54% of Topix 500 companies enhancing capital efficiency, with early indications suggesting positive longer-term performance trends.
  • Future Alpha Opportunities: Expectation of increased disclosure in the coming months, particularly from proactive companies; potential for market surprises from obstructive firms trading below book value.

Crypto Moves #11 – One Week Into the ETFs

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The cryptocurrency industry is still buzzing with excitement after the recent approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs last week.
  • As these ETFs have been trading for a week now, their current performance and net inflows are now available for our consumption.
  • This analysis will focus more on visual charts and less on text, a departure from my usual style, as the market seems to have had its fill of lengthy discussions on ETFs, which now feels akin to listening to a repetitive story from a friend or, even more tiresome, your mother-in-law.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • During 4Q2023, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +10.1%y/y, significantly up from the +3.5% reported during 3Q2023.
  • 63% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 55% delivered positive Sales surprises, continuing the reacceleration trend witnessed during 2023.
  • Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.

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Daily Brief ESG: Japan Governance | Will Reforms Unlock Valuations and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Governance | Will Reforms Unlock Valuations


Japan Governance | Will Reforms Unlock Valuations

By Mark Chadwick

  • Reforms Drive Improvement: Japan’s corporate reforms, catalyzed by governance codes and TSE pressure, are fostering capital efficiency, shareholder value, and long-term equity gains.
  • “Name and Shame” Initiative Impact: TSE’s disclosure initiative reveals 54% of Topix 500 companies enhancing capital efficiency, with early indications suggesting positive longer-term performance trends.
  • Future Alpha Opportunities: Expectation of increased disclosure in the coming months, particularly from proactive companies; potential for market surprises from obstructive firms trading below book value.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024
  • Chinese Auto Chip Firms Racing to Cash In on NEV Boom


Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks higher on rally in Apple shares and chip stocks; AAPL +4% on broker upgrade; TSMC +9% after earning beat and strong outlook. 
  • Japan faces a crisis with 250,000 “zombie” companies at an 11-year high in fiscal 2022, a 30% rise, burdened by pandemic support and escalating debt, reveals Teikoku Databank.
  • Sekisui House launches $5 billion bid for US housebuilder; Fujitsu to refrain from bidding on UK projects; Honda expects 10% sales growth in US this year.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Chinese Auto Chip Firms Racing to Cash In on NEV Boom

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese firms are rushing to make their own auto chips as demand continues to increase in the world’s largest car market.
  • In 2023, there were more than 300 local auto chipmakers, nearly 10 times the number from three years ago, said Yuan Chengyin, general manager of National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, a NEV research center funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology.
  • China provides the best market for auto chipmakers as the demand for smart driving cars is much higher compared with other countries, said Zhang Qiang, chairman of Wuxi-based auto chipmaker Xinchi Technology, at a business event Tuesday.

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Daily Brief ECM: Why Is APR IPO Getting Delayed? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Is APR IPO Getting Delayed?
  • Amer Sports IPO Preview
  • Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN and ANZ
  • NHPC OFS – While the Overhang Remains, Momentum on the Stock Has Been Very Strong


Why Is APR IPO Getting Delayed?

By Douglas Kim

  • APR announced it will delay its IPO. Now, APR’s book building has been postponed to 2 to 8 February. The IPO price range remains the same.
  • The company has provided updated preliminary sales and operating profits for 2023 in the revised IPO prospectus. Revenue was a bit light but OP was better than expected in 4Q23.
  • Our base case valuation of APR is 370,809 won per share which represents an 85% upside from the high end of the bankers’ valuation range (200,000 won).

Amer Sports IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • The biggest risk for Amer Sports is its excessive leverage. It had net debt of $5.9 billion and equity of only $8.8 million at the end of 3Q 2023.
  • Many investors are likely to emphasize the negatives more (especially the excessive leverage and inconsistent operating margins), rather than the positives such as China representing increasing percentage of total sales. 
  • Amer Sports is trying to raise nearly $1 billion in this IPO which could value the company at about $10 billion. 

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN and ANZ

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with ASEAN and ANZ after having looked at other regions earlier.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

NHPC OFS – While the Overhang Remains, Momentum on the Stock Has Been Very Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • The GoI is looking to raise US$199m in trimming a portion of its stake in NHPC (NHPC IN). There is an upsize option to increase the deal size to US$279m.
  • Assuming that the deal upsizes, the deal here would be a relatively large one to digest at 11 days of the stock’s ADV.
  • The deal appears to be well flagged, with the selldown by the GoI appearing to be part of its divestment drive across PSUs in India.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang
  • Spotting Position Patterns: TIGER Battery ETF January Review & KODEX ETF’s March Rebalancing
  • IRC (1029 HK)’s MBO’s MGO: Still An Avoid
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely


Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

By Brian Freitas


Spotting Position Patterns: TIGER Battery ETF January Review & KODEX ETF’s March Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • TIGER ETF (305540) rebalanced on January 11th, with Ecopro Materials correcting by 4%, contrasting a 20% surge from Jan 8-10. TIGER recorded net purchases aligning with a 2% inclusion weight.
  • Preemptive positions by local hedge funds were observed from Jan 8-10, closing on the 11th. Despite a KOSPI decline and minimal sector movement, Ecopro Materials exhibited this unusual price pattern.
  • Observing this pattern implies a potential recurrence during the March rebalancing of KODEX ETF. Notably, local hedge funds may initiate similar preemptive positions. We should consider this in position setup.

IRC (1029 HK)’s MBO’s MGO: Still An Avoid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 1st November, Nikolai Levitskii, Russian iron-ore play IRC (1029 HK)‘s chairman and largest shareholder, acquired 4.72% of shares out, lifting his stake above 30%, triggering an MGO.
  • The Offer is conditional on Levitskii holding more than 50% of shares out. His intention is to maintain IRC’s listing. At the first close, he held 35.77% (5.16% had tendered). 
  • The current spread is 9.2%. MIC, with 16.67% of shares out, has yet to tender. Nor do I expect them to. Plus IRC is on the OFAC sanction list. Avoid.

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.

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