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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, BFI Finance Indonesia, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Zions Bancorporation, Resona Holdings, Freedom Holding Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, XRP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Back on an Even Keel
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar
  • US Banks – Office Exposures, Interest Spread Trends to 3Q23
  • Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course
  • Freedom Holding: A Kazakh Scam Being Uncovered?
  • Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities
  • More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto


Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) gets a dramatic upweight in TOPIX on Monday 30 October. There is a LOT of stock to buy. Call it US$2.2bn. 
  • Shares have to come from someplace. Basically it will all come from retail or from those who pre-positioned themselves in the stock (buying from retail). Some could come from short-sellers.
  • The stock WAS not cheap vs regional banks (what I see as their best set of comps) and the Q2 Unrealised Loss on Securities has ballooned. But care is needed.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Back on an Even Keel

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance‘s 3Q2023 results reflected the lingering impact of May’s Malware incident which interrupted collections but this situation has now been remedied and the company can resume rebuilding its book.
  • 4Q2023 will likely see further write-offs but an improvement in credit costs but the company will remain cautious on building its book with a full recovery expected in 2H2024. 
  • BFI Finance remains the best-quality multi-finance company in Indonesia, with a low cost of funds and a differentiated target market of used 4W and 2W non-dealer loans. Valuations are attractive. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Golden Solar New Energy Technology Holdings (1121 HK).

US Banks – Office Exposures, Interest Spread Trends to 3Q23

By Victor Galliano

  • US Banks’ office credit exposures represent a big part of the sector’s credit quality concerns, given the decline in office space occupancy and rising interest rates
  • Industry data shows that bank funding costs are rising fast, and 3Q23 bank spread trends are mixed; banks with greater mortgage exposure are potentially at greater risk of narrowing spreads
  • We stick with Capital One for its high lending spreads, negligible mortgage exposure and limited office credit exposure with high coverage; Capital One also has healthy overall NPL coverage

Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course

By Victor Galliano

  • So far in 4Q23, Japanese banks’ share prices have registered a mixed performance, in part due to the unsettled global market conditions; yet the Japanese bond yield curve keeps steepening
  • We assess the top twelve Japanese commercial banks by market capitalisation, and we believe that Japanese banks remain good value with, a rare thing, improving fundamentals
  • Ahead of the September results, we stick with our buys on Resona, Mizuho and SMFG; Resona has lagged deserving to re-rate further, and we add Hachijuni to our buy list

Freedom Holding: A Kazakh Scam Being Uncovered?

By Alec Tseung

  • Hindenburg Research published a short-selling report accusing the company and its Chairman & CEO of evading sanctions, fabricating revenue, market manipulations, etc.
  • One area that could warrant more attention is the acquisitions Freedom carried out over the past 18 months, where numerous target companies were personally invested by its Chairman & CEO.
  • In Kazakhstan, it’s difficult to have full visibility into these target companies’ shareholders and for whom exactly Freedom was providing liquidity.

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
  • MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
  • Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215

More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto

By Delphi Digital

  • Traditional equities confer specific rights to their holders, such as voting power and dividends. Tokens offer distinct advantages, including implementation versatility, composability—especially within DeFi—and other functionalities unattainable with securities.
  • The innovative designs of tokens play a pivotal role; they not only channel value back to the token holders but also exert a direct impact on the token’s market value.
  • In this report, we explore four value accrual mechanisms implemented by tokens. These include: (i) Buyback and Burn; (ii) Real Yield; (iii) Tax-Tokens; and (iv) Book Value Tokens

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Daily Brief Consumer: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Tingyi Holding, Vinda International and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Tingyi Holding
  • Vinda International (3331 HK):  Business Recovering As Expected


Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stellantis, a merger between France’s PSA with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ), is buying a 17% stake (14.53% fully diluted) in Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)
  • Leapmotor will issue 194mn H shares at HK$43.8/share, a 19% premium to last close, in a HK$8.51bn transaction. Stellantis will also hold a 51% stake in newly formed JV. 
  • Stellantis is paying a chunky 3.64x market cap-trailing-revenue; but ~2.25x forward revs, which compares to the average for key peers of 1.9x.

Asian Dividend Gems: Tingyi Holding

By Douglas Kim

  • Shares of Tingyi Holding are oversold. It has high dividend yield and attractive valuations. Its core instant noodles and beverage businesses are turning around this year. 
  • The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.62 for Tingyi in 2023 which would suggest a dividend yield of 6.1%. Tingyi Holding’s dividend yield averaged 5% annually from 2018 to 2022.
  • Tingyi’s “Master Kong” instant noodle is one of the best known brands in China. The company is also one of the largest producers and distributors of beverages in China. 

Vinda International (3331 HK):  Business Recovering As Expected

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Vinda International (3331 HK) announced 3Q23 results, with net profit up 37% yoy as margins started to recover. 
  • Reported sales growth picked up speed, growing at 8% yoy (vs. 4% growth in 1H23), and 12% at constant exchange rates (vs. 10% growth in 1H23). 
  • More importantly, gross margin recovered quarter-on-quarter from a 0.2ppt decline in 2Q23 to a 2.3ppt increase in 3Q23.

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Daily Brief Crypto: More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto


More Than Just Governance: Unpacking Value Accrual Mechanisms in Crypto

By Delphi Digital

  • Traditional equities confer specific rights to their holders, such as voting power and dividends. Tokens offer distinct advantages, including implementation versatility, composability—especially within DeFi—and other functionalities unattainable with securities.
  • The innovative designs of tokens play a pivotal role; they not only channel value back to the token holders but also exert a direct impact on the token’s market value.
  • In this report, we explore four value accrual mechanisms implemented by tokens. These include: (i) Buyback and Burn; (ii) Real Yield; (iii) Tax-Tokens; and (iv) Book Value Tokens

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Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Marriage Loses Its Luster in China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: Marriage Loses Its Luster in China
  • Ifo Watch: Signs of Disinflation Bottoming Out in Germany?
  • Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?
  • The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!


CX Daily: Marriage Loses Its Luster in China

By Caixin Global

  • Marriage / Charts of the Day: Marriage loses its luster in China 
  • China-U.S. /: Xi calls for stable ties in meeting with California Governor Newsom

  • Zhongzhi /: Shareholder in Zhongzhi-linked trust firm delists amid deepening liquidity crisis


Ifo Watch: Signs of Disinflation Bottoming Out in Germany?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Takeaways: Some very gloomy signs in the IFO survey details with Capital Goods production expectations nose-diving in a recessionary fashionOn the other hand, the highly cyclical Chemicals industry, a large consumer of Natural Gas, is rebounding for the third month running.
  • Price pressures remain low in the forward looking survey, but there are signs of a stabilization/rebound.
  • EUR-flation is likely to bottom below 2%, but price pressures could re-emerge already during the spring according to the Ifo Survey.

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.
  • We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.
  • Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
  • Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
  • And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index.

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Most Read: Newmont Mining, Hanwha Ocean, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Japan Post Bank, Adaro Energy, KakaoBank , J&T Global Express, Selvas AI Inc, Alibaba (ADR), Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean’s SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading
  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
  • Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
  • Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
  • J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut
  • Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play
  • Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap


Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean’s SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading

By Sanghyun Park

  • First, we can take on some risk and build up a short position using SSFs from now, aiming for an aggressively low price (likely Day 1) during the rights trading. 
  • If this approach seems somewhat risky, the second is to wait until the rights trading and, although accepting some sacrifice in the spread, build positions relatively risk-free. 
  • We can also actively build up a long position in the significantly backwardated SSFs from now and, instead, set up an aggressive short on the underlying shares.

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) gets a dramatic upweight in TOPIX on Monday 30 October. There is a LOT of stock to buy. Call it US$2.2bn. 
  • Shares have to come from someplace. Basically it will all come from retail or from those who pre-positioned themselves in the stock (buying from retail). Some could come from short-sellers.
  • The stock WAS not cheap vs regional banks (what I see as their best set of comps) and the Q2 Unrealised Loss on Securities has ballooned. But care is needed.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

By Brian Freitas


Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
  • The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
  • At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • L&F will likely be listed on the KOSPI in mid-December. The top reserved issue within the KOSDAQ 150 IT Sector will be added to the index via an ad-hoc change.
  • Selvas AI stands as the foremost candidate for the screened top reserved issue, with a mere two trading days remaining in the six-month screening period.
  • Given the relatively limited proactive position buildup due to more uncertainty regarding timing, the price impact leading up to the effective date might become even more significant.

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

By Eric Chen

  • The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.
  • While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.
  • Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil & gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  

Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stellantis, a merger between France’s PSA with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ), is buying a 17% stake (14.53% fully diluted) in Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)
  • Leapmotor will issue 194mn H shares at HK$43.8/share, a 19% premium to last close, in a HK$8.51bn transaction. Stellantis will also hold a 51% stake in newly formed JV. 
  • Stellantis is paying a chunky 3.64x market cap-trailing-revenue; but ~2.25x forward revs, which compares to the average for key peers of 1.9x.

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Most Read: Newmont Mining, Eoflow , Elite Material, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Medtronic Plc, Azure Minerals, Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Ecopro BM , KakaoBank , Hollysys Automation Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • Medtronic’s M&A of Eoflow Timeline Postponed
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF Rebalance Preview: In-The-Money; Turnover & Trade Remain High
  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
  • EOFlow/Medtronic: Signs of Life
  • Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure
  • Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play
  • Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares
  • Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
  • What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer


Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

Medtronic’s M&A of Eoflow Timeline Postponed

By Douglas Kim

  • On 25 October, Eoflow announced that the M&A of Eoflow by Medtronic has been postponed. 
  • The closing date for Eoflow’s stock transfer agreement with Medtronic has now been changed to 3 January 2024. 
  • Although we believe Medtronic will continue to pursue Eoflow, the M&A tender offer price could be lowered to about 26,000 won, which would be nearly 20% higher than current price.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF Rebalance Preview: In-The-Money; Turnover & Trade Remain High

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 25 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 19.5% and a one-way trade of US$1.39bn.
  • A long adds/ short deletes trade is up double digits over the last three weeks and there are a few trade adjustments based on the new rankings.

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

EOFlow/Medtronic: Signs of Life

By David Blennerhassett

  • When EOFlow (294090 KS) was suspended on the 11th October, and ceased global sales, either the Medtronic (MDT US) deal was (largely) toast; or it was a tactical move. 
  • I’m firmly in the latter camp. Insulet‘s lawsuit was expected. And completing the transaction enables the more financially and legally resource-rich MDT to become the party to the litigation.
  • The SPA between Jesse Kim and MDT was expected to complete on 25 October. That was not a hard date. It has now been pushed out to 3 January 2024. 

Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure

By David Blennerhassett

  • When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
  • This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
  • $3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 

Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • The pivotal question now is the number of these companies that will effectively defer their year-end ex-dividend date to April next year.
  • The most reliable way to accurately confirm this would be to check how many of them will publicly announce the dividend reference date two weeks before the December year-end deadline.
  • This will serve as the most critical indicator in determining whether this year’s year-end flow trading event, the most significant in Korea, will recur.

Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 October, it was announced that Ecopro Innovation is selling 160k shares of Ecopro BM shares (0.2% of outstanding shares), representing about 32 billion won.
  • Although the percentage of shares is small relative to its outstanding shares, this additional selling is likely to further negatively impact Ecopro BM’s shares in the near term.
  • Ecopro BM’s shares have seen a significant drop in price over the past few months, but its current P/E (87.3x in 2023) and EV/EBITDA (46.9x in 2023) multiples remain unattractive.

Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
  • The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
  • At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
  • Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
  • What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tech Tumbles; MHI Develops Co2 Liquefaction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tech Tumbles; MHI Develops Co2 Liquefaction
  • SK Hynix Call Bad News for WDC
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 20-26 October 2023


Ohayo Japan | Tech Tumbles; MHI Develops Co2 Liquefaction

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.2%, Nasdaq -1.9%; Nasdaq now officially in correction mode; Meta warned of advertising softness
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY150.4; Denso to spend $3b on semicons by 2030; KHI revises down on P&W engine losses
  • JapanX: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and its subsidiaries are pioneering CO2 liquefaction from gas engine generators, advancing carbon neutrality goals and carbon capture technologies

SK Hynix Call Bad News for WDC

By Jim Handy

  • SK hynix reported increased DRAM and NAND flash revenues in the third quarter, with DRAM’s price increasing about 10%
  • NAND inventory is higher than DRAM’s so NAND production capacity will not be increased
  • This bodes well for DRAM makers and poorly for NAND makers like WDC and Kioxia

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 20-26 October 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Daily Brief ECM: J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut
  • Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs
  • Cello World IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Honasa Consumer IPO – RHP Updates – Sales Strong, Slight Margin Improvement
  • Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO – Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks


J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Vinfast’s shares have fallen more than 80% since its IPO in August. Shares are currently trading at $4.93 per share compared to IPO open price of $22 per share.
  • On 20th October, Vinfast announced that the company has entered into a standby equity subscription agreement of up to $1.0bn with Yorkville Advisors which has a term of 36 months.
  • A majority of Vinfast’s EV sales in 9M2023 were to related parties or affiliates of its parent, raising serious concerns over the company’s ability to establish a market presence.  

Cello World IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cello World is looking to raise around US$240m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Cello World (CW) is an Indian consumer products company. The firm is a leading company in the consumerware market in India.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Honasa Consumer IPO – RHP Updates – Sales Strong, Slight Margin Improvement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Honasa Consumer (HC) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and valuations.

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO – Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

By Ethan Aw

  • Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
  • CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi


Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out
  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) | Troubles at Core?
  • Porsche: Elements of Discussion
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Forging a Healthier Future
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement
  • Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate
  • ASE’s Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected
  • SHEN: On the Horizon
  • Information Services Corporation – Registering growth
  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health


Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Li Ning (2331 HK) is trading down 18% today due to a bad 3Q23 operational date. 
  • Retail sales grew by only mid-single-digit yoy, while same-store-sales recorded a mid-single-digit decline yoy. 
  • Given the operational update, FY23 earnings should be revised down, to likely flat or low-single-digit growth.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) | Troubles at Core?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN) seems to be facing problems in its core BPC segment. 
  • Our casual LinkedIn browsing led us to an interesting post on the company and its practices that warrant attention.
  • We have previously highlighted issues with the way the company has managed its Fashion Business, an attack on the BPC business could compound issues further.

Porsche: Elements of Discussion

By Alexis Dwek

  • Although we are bullish on the Porsche story, we note a few relevant elements of discussion that could pose threats/hurdles/explain share price overhang
  • Conflict of interest: Oliver Blume is both CEO of Porsche and VW. Can you be Porsche’s CEO just part-time?
  • Once upon a time, Porsche had a great story to tell. What’s the new story?

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Forging a Healthier Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s numbers made for positive reading with loan growth coming through in productive areas, especially for Kupedes commercial micro-loans but also from its PNM and Pegadaian subsidiaries.
  • The bank maintained its funding costs at highly competitive levels despite rising rates and time deposit growth with NIMs improving due to a better loan mix in micro.
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) remains the most direct way to get exposure to greater financial inclusion and the underbanked in Indonesia. Valuations remain attractive with rising ROA and ROE. 

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
  • OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
  • Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging existing operations, strategic relationships, and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Carly has attracted larger automotive industry businesses as shareholders, with a direct offering and services to support automotive manufacturers and dealers to generate revenue from car subscriptions. 

ASE’s Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASE’s 3Q23 results came in in-line with analyst estimates, and showed gross margin ticking slightly higher QoQ.
  • Semiconductor Assembly, Testing, and Manufacturing (ATM) capacity utilization remains low, in the mid-60’s percent.
  • Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC or UMC in their recent results.

SHEN: On the Horizon

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SHEN is expanding its network footprint with the acquisition of Horizon Telecom for $385 million in cash and stock.
  • SHEN is purchasing Horizon for the network footprint and the sales ability to capture commercial customers compared to the majority of SHEN’s customers being residential
  • The valuation becomes financially reasonable to understand when considering SHEN is paying approximately $51 thousand per fiber miles

Information Services Corporation – Registering growth

By Edison Investment Research

Information Services Corporation (ISC) has a strong track record of proficiently acquiring and innovating registries and related information services to benefit citizens and businesses in Canada and on a global scale. We expect ISC to continue to generate predictable and growing cash flows due to the non-discretionary nature of its core registry services, bolstered by its recent extension of the Master Service Agreement (MSA) with the Saskatchewan government by 20 years to 2053. Our DCF valuation of C$37/share implies 88% upside to the current share price, reflecting the sustainable, cash-generative nature of the company, encompassing a large, steady-growth Registry business and a fast-growing Services division.


Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health

By Water Tower Research

  • On October 25, Aspira Women’s Health announced that a poster on its in-development miRNA-based ovarian cancer test was presented at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Special Conference in Cancer Research: Ovarian Cancer.
  • The poster, titled, “Improving the diagnostic accuracy of an ovarian cancer triage test using a joint miRNA-protein model,” highlighted data showing miRNA’s potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive diagnostic tests.
  • The study showed that the addition of miRNA improved the detection of early-stage ovarian cancers and that diagnostic performance improved even further when using a combination of approaches, including miRNA, proteins, and metadata. 

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