Daily Briefs

• Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
• That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
• Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

• When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
• This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
• $3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 

• Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and Adaro Energy (ADRO) while buying Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO). 
• There will be passive trading to other stocks too, though the impact and flow is not material on most of the stocks.
• Passive trackers will trade at the close on 31 October, so there are only 3 days to implementation of the changes.

• Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) at A$3.52 per share, a 44.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
• To avoid a repeat of the Albemarle Corp (ALB US)/Liontown Resources (LTR AU) situation, if the scheme fails or is terminated, SQM will launch an off-market takeover offer at A$3.50.
• Gina Rinehart is rumoured to have built a 14.5% stake, suggesting the final offer is an off-market takeover. The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. 

• Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
• OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
• Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Medco Energi

• Japanese activist Murakami-san and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) have been duking it out for 18 months. He now has 20%. Wants more. Management wants to exercise the poison pill. 
• Cosmo’s efforts are not completely honest, but Murakami-san’s efforts are clearly designed to benefit Murakami-san over general shareholders, and Cosmo has finally explained the reasons publicly. Read the doc (Japanese).
• At 1.0x book, lower refining margins vs earlier in the year, and difficulty for Murakami-san to force the issue, one must take more care here than one did 40% ago.

• Lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) went into a trading halt Monday (23 October) “regarding a potential change of control transaction“. That halt has been extended to Friday morning. 
• The obvious suitor is Sociedad Quimica y Minera de C (SQM/B CI) with 19.9%, who approached Azure with a $2.31/share Offer in August but was rejected.
• Mark Creasy, a major shareholder in Azure and also a direct stakeholder in Azure’s flagship mine, is the key. Should a firm Offer unfold, expect a chunky premium.