Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Boss Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.  
  • The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Delta Electronics Thai and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership
  • Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: Sharp Premium Drops Most Recently; Key Levels to Long or Short
  • CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 3 | Key Comps, Valuation Multiples | 310 Bn CNY Justifiable
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Market Cap Metric Breaches Key Level For 1st Time Since Dec 2022
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch for Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, ASE, UMC Results; AI Names Top Losers

TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.
  • TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase
  • CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel’s popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: Sharp Premium Drops Most Recently; Key Levels to Long or Short

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Premiums have generally fallen sharply most recently, likely driven by weaker global markets.
  • Key earnings: TSMC reported last week; UMC and ASE to report this week.
  • We describe our latest recommended premium/discount levels to Long or Short the spreads.

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 3 | Key Comps, Valuation Multiples | 310 Bn CNY Justifiable

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we first consider which comparables are the most appropriate for CaiNiao
  • We then discuss which valuation multiples make sense, plus some potential pitfalls 
  • We believe CaiNiao and their bankers could justify a valuation up to 310 bn CNY

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Market Cap Metric Breaches Key Level For 1st Time Since Dec 2022

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand shares haven’t recovered from their sharp drop at the end of September, which happened after the parent Delta Taiwan sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary.
  • Delta Thailand shares fell to the point that its market cap finally became smaller than Delta Taiwan, for the first time since December 2022.
  • Delta Thailand’s market cap should be substantially smaller than its parent Delta Taiwan. We analyze what history tells us the further relative downside for Delta Thailand could be.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch for Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, ASE, UMC Results; AI Names Top Losers

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • This week will see a wave of earnings releases for the industry including Intel, Microsofot, Mediatek, ASE, and UMC.
  • TSMC results last week provided positive color on the 2024E onwards outlook for the company as well as comments regarding a turn around for PC and mobile.
  • Taiwan AI names were some of the top losers across our Taiwan Tech universe last week.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Gushengtang and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Gushengtang (2273.HK) – 2023 Full-Year Performance Would Exceed Expectations

Gushengtang (2273.HK) – 2023 Full-Year Performance Would Exceed Expectations

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 3Q23 is expected to achieve over 40% YoY growth. 2023 overall performance would be better than previous guidance- Revenue up 40+% YoY and adjusted net profit up about 45% YoY.
  • With abundant cash flow, Gushengtang has increased dividend payouts and share buyback, indicating that the current stock price is undervalued and has not yet reflected its high growth expectations/healthy fundamentals.
  • Gushengtang has cross-regional expansion capability. The “sustainability” + “high growth” of performance are worth noting. Depressed sentiment/complex external environment provide a good buying opportunity. Rebound in stock price is expected.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Persol Holdings, ZTO Express Cayman and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | A New Price War Among China’s ‘Sort & Transport’ Express Names

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

By Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | A New Price War Among China’s ‘Sort & Transport’ Express Names

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this month’s Tracker, we focus on a new price war among the ‘sort & transport’ names
  • Q3 ASPs at these express companies fell by -12% Y/Y, and volume growth softened
  • We believe margins are under increasing pressure in China’s mainstream express segment

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Krung Thai Bank Pub, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Falling, LONG Support
  • Thai Banks 3Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai and Ayudhya
  • Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development

EQD | KOSPI 200 Falling, LONG Support

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is going towards the Q2/median support at 314. The index is also OVERSOLD MONTHLY (CC=-3)
  • One possible scenario is to see the index downtrending into early/mid-November, find a bottom, and then begin a counter-rally from there.
  • The index could go down more this week, but a LONG trade could begin at 314 support, and if that does not hold, the next support area is at 306.

Thai Banks 3Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai and Ayudhya

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai ranks second from top in terms of post-provision profitability and it has double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with attractive PBV and PE ratios
  • We also like Ayudhya, with its sound pre and post-provision profitability metrics with healthy ROE and ROA, its sound credit quality metrics and undemanding valuations
  • Kasikorn’s TTM cost of risk remain high versus the peers, and in 3Q23 it continued to worsen; its pre-provision profitability is healthy but there is, as yet, no CoR improvement

Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Topsports International Holdings, Multi Bintang Indonesia and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Topsports (6110 HK):  High Dividend Yield Supported By Strong Free Cash Flow
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – October 2023

Topsports (6110 HK):  High Dividend Yield Supported By Strong Free Cash Flow

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK) announced first half FY24 (fiscal year ending February) results last week, with net profit up 17% yoy.
  • The company trades at a 7% dividend yield, backed by strong free cash flow.
  • The stock is not only a yield play, but also a call option on the recovery of Nike and Adidas’ retail performance in China.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – October 2023

By Sameer Taneja

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Oct 22
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Kurita Water Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

By Brian Freitas

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Oct 22
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shinko Electric Industries, Novatek Microelectronics Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,
  • Novatek (3034.TT): Re-Qualify IPhone OLED Display DDIC; the Downturn Might Be Ending Soon.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

By David Blennerhassett

Novatek (3034.TT): Re-Qualify IPhone OLED Display DDIC; the Downturn Might Be Ending Soon.

By Patrick Liao

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Oct 22
0

Daily Brief Health Care: AIM Vaccine, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-Investment Returns on Weight Loss/AD,GLP-1 Gene Therapy,AIM Vaccine
  • Challenge Is to Simultaneously Reduce Cash on Hand and Achieve Profitability over Cost of Capital

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-Investment Returns on Weight Loss/AD,GLP-1 Gene Therapy,AIM Vaccine

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Weight loss and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been ranked among the top indications in the pharmaceutical history and are undeniable opportunities, but they are expected to generate different investment returns.
  • We have noticed that some companies have started developing GLP-1 gene therapy. We would be cautious about this.
  • Without strong fundamentals but is eager to go public on A-share market, AIM Vaccine (6660 HK) seems more enthusiastic about capital operations to make quick money.We consider this company risky.

Challenge Is to Simultaneously Reduce Cash on Hand and Achieve Profitability over Cost of Capital

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Managers self-analyze the factors that lead to P/B of below 1x, as companies fail to appreciate their growth potential and to ensure profitability in excess of their cost of capital.
  • This seems to be dilemma in that companies’ failure to realize sufficient profitability, along with insufficient growth investments, prevents them from sharing the image of corporate value growth with investors.
  • Managers believe that the first step is to improve ROE by reshuffling business portfolios and promoting profitability improvement, but reducing excess cash and increasing shareholder returns should be pursued simultaneously.

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Oct 22
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Kurita Water Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

By Brian Freitas

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