Category

Daily Briefs

Sep 21
0

Daily Brief ESG: Few Companies Recognize Board Diversity as a Management Issue? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Few Companies Recognize Board Diversity as a Management Issue?
  • Cemig – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Few Companies Recognize Board Diversity as a Management Issue?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The percentage of female managers is low, around 10%, so it will take time for internal executive directors to be nominated, and meanwhile companies will be dependent on outside directors.
  • Finally, TSE has clearly stated specific numerical targets, so the path to achieving the targets is clear. Now the focus will shift to the content of female board  directors.
  • Hiring talented people should be the biggest management challenge, but the appointment of foreign talent has been too slow compared to the globalization of the business.

Cemig – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Cemig’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its “Strong” Environmental score, while the Social and Governance scores are “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Dots Say Higher for Longer; JapanX: Kishida Lays Out Welcome Mat for Foreign Investors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Dots Say Higher for Longer; JapanX: Kishida Lays Out Welcome Mat for Foreign Investors

Ohayo Japan: Dots Say Higher for Longer; JapanX: Kishida Lays Out Welcome Mat for Foreign Investors

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: SPX -0.9% as Fed opted not to raise interest rates. However, the CB now sees rates higher for longer
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures -0.8% v cash, JPY 148.3/$; Toshiba Tender Offer gets done (finally); 
  • JAPAN X: Tokyo has long-dreamed of becoming a global financial city. Now PM Kishida is inviting foreigners to revitalize the Asset Management Industry

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief ECM: Midea Group (000333 CH):  Potential H-Share Listing Thoughts and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group (000333 CH):  Potential H-Share Listing Thoughts
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Arm IPO Done, the Hard Part Comes Next
  • SignatureGlobal (India) IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • JSW Infrastructure IPO – Would Need a Wider Discount to Its Larger and More Dominant Peer
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • DPC Dash IPO – US$400m Lockup Expiry Should Provide a Liquidity Boost

Midea Group (000333 CH):  Potential H-Share Listing Thoughts

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) announced on September 18 the approval for H-share listing for a total of not more than 10% of its outstanding shares (before overallotment).
  • Reasons for the listing include the possible share incentive program for overseas employees and more exposure to foreign investors. 
  • The H-share listing could be a safe bet given the current valuation profile, especially if the discount to A-share is larger than 10%. 

Softbank (9984 JP): Arm IPO Done, the Hard Part Comes Next

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank’s successful Arm Holdings IPO is a relief for Masa, with Arm valued at USD57bn and Arm shares trading above the issue price; this supports the SoftBank share price
  • Arm’s key challenge is delivering on the growth strategy to justify its super-premium valuation; Arm’s historic price to sales is at a big premium to its peer group, excluding Nvida
  • On current market values including Arm, Softbank shares trade at a 52% NAV discount; however, Arm’s current valuation seems unsustainable to us, threatening to erode the near term NAV lift

SignatureGlobal (India) IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • SignatureGlobal India Pvt Ltd (1468641D IN) IPO will go live for subscription this week. 
  • The company is one of the renowned players in the NCR and Haryana in the affordable and lower mid segment housing.
  • The company has grown well in the recent times, however there are certain forensic takeaways such as poor health of subsidiaries, related party transactions, etc.

JSW Infrastructure IPO – Would Need a Wider Discount to Its Larger and More Dominant Peer

By Clarence Chu

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) is looking to raise US$336m in its India IPO.
  • JSW Infrastructure (JSWI) is the fastest growing port-related infrastructure company in terms of growth in installed cargo handling capacity and cargo volumes handled during FY20 to FY22, according to CRISIL.
  • In this note, we will look at JSWI’s RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
  • In Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline in ROA/ROE metrics. 

4Paradigm IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to raise gross proceeds of $131-144m through issuing 18.4m shares at an indicative price range of HK$55.6-61.16 per shares.
  • The company’s IPO is timed perfectly when AI adoption is expected to expand on a large scale with the popularity of ChatGPT and other AI applications.
  • Though we liked 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) for its improving financials and growth prospects, our analysis suggests that the IPO is expensive.

DPC Dash IPO – US$400m Lockup Expiry Should Provide a Liquidity Boost

By Sumeet Singh

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
  • The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 672 stores across 20 cities, as of Jun 2023.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co

Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule
  • Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added
  • Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
  • Descente a Key Part of Itochu’s Plans in Sports
  • StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap
  • Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)
  • HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing
  • Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp

Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule

By Travis Lundy

  • The JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) closes today. I expect that we will see results announced as early as late tonight, but by law, by latest tomorrow.
  • There will be at least three major index downweights, and possibly deletions, most likely in the following five trading days.
  • This shows the approximate maximum share and dollar amounts to be sold, and approximate dates. 

Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • In August, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) launched a Tender offer on Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) to buy out minorities. 
  • That tender offer ended last week, with Itochu and the acquirer vehicle owning 85+%. 
  • Interestingly, there are near-term flow events as a result. Worth watching.

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added

By Brian Freitas

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

By Travis Lundy

Descente a Key Part of Itochu’s Plans in Sports

By Michael Causton

  • Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.
  • While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.
  • The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. 
  • Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Early on Monday morning, Naspers and Prosus announced the immediate resignation of CEO Bob van Dijk. Management hosted an investor call shortly after. Key takeaways are included below.
  • Ervin Tu, Group Chief Investment Officer, will take over as Interim CEO. Tu is a strong candidate for the permanent position.
  • After an initial bounce at the open, both counters sold off, widening the discounts by more than 1 percentage point intra-day.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.
  • There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).

HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing

By Douglas Kim

  • On 20 September, HLB Inc announced that it has hired Korea Investment & Securities as an advisor for a potential switch from KOSDAQ to KOSPI listing. 
  • In our view, there is a 80-90%+ probability of HLB switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI sometime in the next 6-12 months.
  • If HLB finally decides to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, it is likely that HLB will be included in KOSPI 200 index in 2024. 

Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR) offered a (full) price of DKK 735/share for SimCorp A/S (SIM DC) to grow in data & analytics. I recommend long. Acceptances total roughly 93.65% of share capital.
  • All conditions and approvals, including minimum acceptance of 50%+1 share have been fulfilled. Final results should be announced on 22 September and settlement should take place on 29 September.
  • Deutsche Börse will as soon as possible seek to initiate and complete a compulsory acquisition. After a recent dip, the shares trade again at the offer price.

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Coinbase: From Sleeping Giant To Industry Leader and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Coinbase: From Sleeping Giant To Industry Leader
  • Cambodia’s New Gaming Laws Reduce More than 50% of Legal Casinos: Nagacorp Expands Geographic Reach
  • Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – BliBli Ploughing a More Profitable Furrow
  • Airport of Thailand (AOT): Not the Right Time
  • Remitly – Rev +49% | ROW Rev +120% | Scaling: COGS -25% | Adj EBITDA Margin 2Q23 Is 8.7%, Highest
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – The Truth Behind Novartis’ Divorce Decision on PD-1
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.
  • Yamazaki Baking: Breads & Buns Buonce But Valuation Is a Stalemate
  • PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Despite Slow Start, FY24 Guidance Reiterated; Diabetes Can Be a Sweet Spot
  • Chip Designer Arm Committed to China, CEO Says

Coinbase: From Sleeping Giant To Industry Leader

By Delphi Digital

  • Coinbase sees the looming opportunity in the global crypto futures & derivatives market. It’s positioning itself to capitalize on a market that’s been hollowed out over last 12-18 months.
  • We explore 3 key areas of Coinbase’s business that we believe Wall Street is overlooking. These include: Coinbase International, ETF Spot approvals, and Base Chain
  • We estimate Coinbase has the potential to realize additional top-line revenue in the range of 15-20% on the low-end to +150% increase on the high-end over the next few years.

Cambodia’s New Gaming Laws Reduce More than 50% of Legal Casinos: Nagacorp Expands Geographic Reach

By Howard J Klein

  • From 200 properties, the Cambodian government now only allows 87 shrinking capacity but increasing footfall for existing properties like Nagaworld in Phnom Penh.
  • Nagaworld enjoys a moat in metro Phnom Penh–this supply reduction expands its base.
  • H1 performance strong, reduced national capacity will contribute to revenue gains from a wider geography for the largest single integrated luxury resort in Cambodia.

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – BliBli Ploughing a More Profitable Furrow

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) continues to stand out from peers given a differentiated omnichannel model plus a greater portion of 1P but 3P sales are growing driven by Tiket.com.
  • TPV growth surpassed revenue growth in 1H2023 driven by Tiket.com but take rates and gross margins improved, as the company cut back on promotional spending and improved cost efficiencies. 
  • BliBli booked organic growth with more users and a significant pick-up in the average order value, partially driven by Tiket.com. 

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Not the Right Time

By Henry Soediarko

  • Visa-Free travel for Chinese tourists is certainly a boost for the Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) .
  • Compared to 2019 operational numbers, the 2023 number is still very low despite the large YoY gain thanks to the low base in 2022. 
  • The valuation is still high as the share price has run ahead of its fundamentals.

Remitly – Rev +49% | ROW Rev +120% | Scaling: COGS -25% | Adj EBITDA Margin 2Q23 Is 8.7%, Highest

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Remitly (RELY) offers remittances services with 5m active customers, in over 170 countries, with 4 billion bank accounts, and 4,800 corridors, mostly to persons in US, Canada. 
  • Revenue growth is strong at 49% YoY in 2Q23 and averaging 43% YoY for the preceding 5 quarters, with active customers up 474,000 in 2Q23 QoQ vs 371,000 in 1Q23
  • Costs remain high, GAAP earnings are in loss, but this is due to stock-based compensation; adjusted EBITDA is now USD20.4m in 2Q23 from an adjusted EBITDA loss YoY

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – The Truth Behind Novartis’ Divorce Decision on PD-1

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Novartis’ return of PD-1 to BeiGene may actually have nothing to do with TIGIT project. Long-term strategic adjustment and decreasing value of tislelizumab to Novartis could be the core reasons.
  • Abandoning PD-1 is a simple decision for Novartis, but not for BeiGene, who will do its best to promote FDA approval for tislelizumab, aiming to expand internationalization and stabilize valuation.
  • We advise investors not to focus too much on whether or not tislelizumab will eventually get FDA approval,because the actual peak sales tislelizumab can contribute to BeiGene could be disappointing.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

By Patrick Liao

  • The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8″ demand.
  • Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.
  • We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.

Yamazaki Baking: Breads & Buns Buonce But Valuation Is a Stalemate

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • While Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP)‘s recent surge has been impressive, consensus expectations are high for the upcoming quarter, despite yet another price hike in July 2023.
  • From a valuation perspective, we expect limited upside potential even if Yamazaki Baking surpasses consensus expectations.
  • Therefore, we believe that the risk-reward profile for maintaining a long position in Yamazaki Baking is currently not particularly attractive.

PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Despite Slow Start, FY24 Guidance Reiterated; Diabetes Can Be a Sweet Spot

By Tina Banerjee

  • Despite the absence of special demand related to COVID-19, PHC Holdings (6523 JP)’s Q1FY24 revenue of ¥81.3B was at the same level as Q1FY23 due to favorable Fx impact.
  • Operating profit declined 16% YoY to ¥1.7B, due to lower profit in the diabetes management business and a drop in the volume of PCR testing.
  • PHC guided for FY24 revenue of ¥355.5B and operating profit of ¥29.3B (+47% YoY). The company expects FY24 net profit of ¥15.6B from a net loss of ¥3.2B in FY23.

Chip Designer Arm Committed to China, CEO Says

By Caixin Global

  • British chip designer Arm Holdings Plc remains committed to China and to working closely with its mainland-based partner following its $4.87 billion IPO, according to chief executive Rene Haas.

  • The Softbank-backed firm floated in New York last week via the world’s largest public offering year-to-date. But that has not affected its strategy globally.

  • Shanghai-headquartered Arm Technology (China) Co. Ltd., also known as Arm China, operates independently and is the exclusive licensing platform of Arm’s global intellectual property in China

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Crypto: China Expands Use of Digital Yuan to Covering Utility Bills and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Expands Use of Digital Yuan to Covering Utility Bills

China Expands Use of Digital Yuan to Covering Utility Bills

By Caixin Global

  • China further expanded the use of the digital yuan by enabling consumers to use it to pay utility bills. 
  • The digital yuan, also known as the e-CNY, is a legal currency in digital form issued by the central bank.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently updated its e-CNY mobile wallet app, adding new features that allow users to pay water, gas, electricity, heating and phone bills with the digital yuan. 

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Macro: 5 Things We Watch – Fed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ
  • CX Daily: China’s New Electricity Spot Market Rules Lay Groundwork for Unified Standard
  • Fed Nugget: Why the Fed dot plot will remain hawkish
  • UK: Flying Low in Augusts
  • CX Daily: China’s Trillion-Dollar Local Government ‘Hidden Debt’ Dilemma

5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ

By Andreas Steno

  • It’s Central Bank bonanza once again, and that of course means that we will take you through the biggest central bank meetings and give you our take on them, as well as provide you with other observations of relevance for the time to come.
  • This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: FOMC Meeting later today, BoE meeting tomorrow, Crude prices and the energy trade, the growing difference between GDI and GDP and BoJ
  • First it was a pause, then we got a hike and now it looks like we are back at pause with the market having priced in another 11 bps coming at the end of the year.

CX Daily: China’s New Electricity Spot Market Rules Lay Groundwork for Unified Standard

By Caixin Global

  • Analysis: China’s new electricity spot market rules lay groundwork for unified standard

  • Tornadoes / Tornadoes kill 10 in coastal Chinese province

  • Shenzhen looks to attract more Hong Kong, Macao visitors — and their cash

Fed Nugget: Why the Fed dot plot will remain hawkish

By Andreas Steno

  • It is time for the FOMC meeting this afternoon/evening depending on your location and we see a high probability of the FOMC solidifying that another hike is coming in November or December, which is not the base case for markets currently (accumulative 11bps priced in for the rest of the year by the time of writing).
  • Let’s have a look at three simple chart studies on the developments in 1) Growth, 2) Inflation, and 3) Labour since the June dot plot that will be updated later.
  • Both Services and Manufacturing have clearly surprised the UPSIDE since the June meeting and all sell-side economists have been busy revising up growth forecasts.

UK: Flying Low in Augusts

By Phil Rush

  • UK inflation shocked expectations by falling to 6.7% on the CPI and 9.1% on the RPI. An unseasonable summer fall in airfares was partly to blame, but pressure broadly eased.
  • The underlying inflationary impulse was close to target for the first time in 2yrs. Some positive payback is likely in September, including in services inflation.
  • Prices are tracking under the BoE’s August MPR forecast, but wages are running hotter, which creates pressure later, so the BoE remains likely to hike in September.

CX Daily: China’s Trillion-Dollar Local Government ‘Hidden Debt’ Dilemma

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: China’s trillion-dollar local government ‘hidden debt’ dilemma

  • Corporate America is losing optimism over China, AmCham survey shows

  • China expands use of digital yuan to covering utility bills

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Australia: Newcrest Mining, Boss Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

By Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.
  • There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Thailand: PTT PCL, Airports of Thailand and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap
  • Airport of Thailand (AOT): Not the Right Time

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. 
  • Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Airport of Thailand (AOT): Not the Right Time

By Henry Soediarko

  • Visa-Free travel for Chinese tourists is certainly a boost for the Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) .
  • Compared to 2019 operational numbers, the 2023 number is still very low despite the large YoY gain thanks to the low base in 2022. 
  • The valuation is still high as the share price has run ahead of its fundamentals.

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