Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Meitetsu Transport, Ecopro BM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store
  • Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

By Michael Causton

  • Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
  • This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
  • The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.

Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide the short selling data analysis of the Korean stock market including the top 20 stocks in KOSPI with the highest short interest ratios in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively. 
  • There have been noticeable shorting on the Ecopro Group companies and other key names in the rechargeable battery sector including Posco Future M, L&F, and SK IE Technology. 
  • Shorting has generally worked for KOSDAQ names with higher short interest ratios but not for KOSPI names in the past two weeks. 

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported double digit revenue growth in FY25 on the back of 16% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
  • Rx business revenues grew 5% YoY as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch, Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
  • Hisamitsu expects FY26 revenue to be ¥165B, up 6% YoY, driven by new products, with net profit growth to decelerate on higher cost.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Shandong Fengxiang, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00
  • Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
  • The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 
  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

By Arun George

  • Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
  • The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative. 

Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The key is whether the effectiveness of special committee can fairly guide MBO, but whether the independent outside directors are truly independent, properly informed, and skilled is an important assumption.
  • Since companies with high foreign shareholdings generally have higher corporate governance practices, there are concerns about practices in MBO cases for many companies that do not have high foreign shareholdings.
  • When a company whose “goal is IPO” conducts MBO when the stock price is lower than at IPO, there are concerns about whether the special committee will guide MBO fairly.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Financials: S&P 500 INDEX, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE
  • HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus
  • HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

By John Ley

  • We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.
  • The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any,  historical parallels.
  • With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus

By John Ley

  • Brutal start to the week, with the holiday-shortened calendar and continued global weakness weighing on Monday’s open.
  • Implied vol surged early, with skew steepening and tail demand reflected in out-of-the-money Put pricing
  • We highlight significant activity at the 8,000 strike and its implications for near-term spot and vol dynamics.

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

By John Ley

  • A volatile week for HSI, with sharp moves in price, volume, and implied volatility concentrated around Monday’s gap lower.
  • We discuss the shift in spot-vol dynamics and how it may influence short-term vol trading.
  • Changes in open interest and vol structure are examined in the context of ongoing global tensions.

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Apr 13
0

Most Read: Bestechnic Shanghai , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Posco Future M, De Grey Mining, Tsuruha Holdings, Suzuki Motor, CRH , Hyundai Rotem Company, Shandong Fengxiang and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion
  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations
  • Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook
  • [Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)
  • HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
  • We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
  • Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.
  • The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.
  • Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
  • This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
  • We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
  • The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 
  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in June 2025. BUT… there are multiple live spin-off and M&A events likely to trigger intra-review index changes. Three are likely!

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
  • Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
  • The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

By Phil Rush

  • Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such as low US inflation and surging UK GDP.
  • Next week, UK unemployment and inflation data may lean hawkishly due to resilient underlying trends and the delayed impact of Spring stock in clothing store price samples.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is also being pushed towards making another cut on Thursday due to market movements.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

By Arun George

  • Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
  • The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative. 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Hongqiao

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Hongqiao

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 11th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Power Plays: Why Energy and Utilities Are the Strategic Winners of the Next Decade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Power Plays: Why Energy and Utilities Are the Strategic Winners of the Next Decade
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 11/04/2025
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Double, Double, Tariffs and Trouble
  • KTX Zoom: US 1Q25E Earnings Results – APRIL 11, 2025

Power Plays: Why Energy and Utilities Are the Strategic Winners of the Next Decade

By Albert Maass

  • Energy and Utilities sectors positioned for outperformance due to capital discipline, attractive valuations, and stable cash flows.
  • Electrification and energy security create structural demand tailwinds, particularly benefiting regulated utility companies.
  • As markets favor yield and quality over growth, these sectors offer income potential in a normalizing interest rate environment.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 11/04/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels.
  • The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir.
  • The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Double, Double, Tariffs and Trouble

By Water Tower Research

  • Equity markets fell sharply on the administration’s new tariffs as the magnitude and scope exceeded the market’s expectations.
  • Furniture and furnishings stocks, an industry with significant import exposure, were particularly hard hit.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index (-5.3%), the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-12.0%) and the Home Goods Retailers Index (-14.0%) were all down as the S&P 500 and Dow 30 (-9.6%) and the R2K (-9.2%) were also hard hit by the news. 

KTX Zoom: US 1Q25E Earnings Results – APRIL 11, 2025

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

  • Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-up pattern, with the resistance levels at 1,150/1,158/1,168 points (25-day EMA) and the support levels at 1,130/1,122 points.
  • In the medium term, the index remains in a downtren  within the 960-1,200-point range, searching for the bottom.
  • In the short term, the index is expected to continue rising, targeting 1,158/1,168 points. 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int’l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
  • Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief ECM: Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings
  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks
  • Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings

By Sanghyun Park

  • Not much juice at ex-rights — price move’s small, and shorting’s risky with recall risk and having to compensate the lender for lost rights.
  • Some locals chase rights instead, but it’s not really a go-to trade with all the cost/efficiency uncertainty.
  • First round price pre–ex-rights sets the floor for arb margins and anchors rights pricing once they start trading — key level to keep in the playbook.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks

By IPO Boutique

  • Chinese Tea Company is moving ahead with the IPO despite heavy Macro-Economic winds.
  • The company is seeking up to $412m with a high-end pricing and already includes $205m worth of buying on the cover of the prospectus.
  • There are. more questions than answers regarding this IPO due to the current uncertainty in the market. 

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • It’s a pre-revenue tungsten mining company with the world’s largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of mineral resources of tungsten trioxide (WO3) in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
  • Mining operation is conducted by a local subsidiary while JIRI is responsible for the processing operation and sales of the product to its customers.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Sunny Optical, Greentown China

  • In the US, the March CPI came in below estimates at negative 0.1% m-o-m (0.1% e / 0.2% p) and 2.4% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.8% p). This was driven by lower energy costs, as well as a decline in discretionary spending such as airfares, used vehicles and hotels. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (3.0% e / 3.1% p).

  • The White House has clarified that US President Donald Trump’s total tariffs on Chinese imports stands at 145%, comprising a 125% reciprocal tariff rate on top of the existing 20% duty imposed earlier in February and March.

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