TMT/Internet

• A rather unusual price movement came out on February 20 for HLB. On the first trading day after the board of directors’ decision, the price reached the upper daily limit.
• The short covering got to a temporarily excessive level in the process of securing appraisal rights should be the reason that led to the upper limit.
• We should design a trading setup targeting excessive short covering-triggered price overheating in split-off events. At this point, the most likely candidate to pursue a split-off is DB Hitek.

• Following several years of sustained revenue share loss, Search’s digital advertising revenue market share has stabilised, having seemingly retained its core advertising customers.
• With China’s economic growth recovery, Baidu is perfectly positioned to accelerate its core marketing revenue growth, which is also a high-margin operation.
• Baidu is set up for significant group margin expansion as the higher-margin core marketing business returns to positive annualised growth and it continues to expand AI Cloud margins.

• Potentia has returned with an improved three-part offer for Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU). The base offer of A$2.17 is 0.9% higher than Alludo’s A$2.15 offer. 
• The offer could rise to A$2.20 or A$2.25 per share based on hitting additional conditions. There is a clear path for the final offer to reach A$2.20 per share. 
• A A$2.25 per share offer is unlikely due to the onerous 25% scrip acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread to the likely final A$2.20 offer is 0.5%.

• We’re now two-thirds through the Taiwan Semiconductor earnings season and about one-third through the Taiwan Hardware earnings season.
• Semiconductor gross margins declines have been relatively large, and we believe are tracking to be worse than what consensus expected going into the earnings season.
• There have been few examples of inventory situations improving for semicondcutor companies; results data released so far indicates a potentially deeper trough than previously expected.

• The three companies Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML are all key global leaders in the AI industry chain.
• Nvidia’s latest results indicate that the company could be returning to a period of multi-year growth and an inflection point for AI demand.
• One can consider going Long a basket of Nvidia, ASML, and TSMC based on a structural growth thesis for AI demand.

• U.S. Commerce Secretary gave a new speech providing additional public detail about the U.S. CHIPS Act aimed at re-shoring the manufacture of semiconductors in the U.S.
• Emphasis on national security means that financial cost is now secondary for the U.S. and we should not expect any loosening of chip restrictions for China.
• Taiwan companies are straddling a “sweet spot” given they are not restricted, can invest in the U.S. expansion, maintain local non-U.S. advantages, and have had their China-based competition weakened.

• Kratos Studios, a Web3 gaming venture based in India, has raised about US$20 million in seed funding at a valuation of US$150 million.
• The round was led by Accel and saw participation from Prosus Ventures, Courtside Ventures, Nexus Venture Partners, and Nazara, among others.
• Kratos was built by Manish Agarwal, previously CEO of gaming company Nazara, and Ishank Gupta, a former executive at multinational firms like Belgian brewing firm Anheuser-Busch InBev.

• NVIDIA yesterday reported Q4 2022 revenues of $6.05 billion, in line with their forecast, down 21% from a year ago and up 2% sequentially.
• Interestingly, NVIDIA’s current downturn is playing out almost exactly like their previous downturn back in 2019 as can clearly be seen in the above chart.
• We expect to see this same recovery pattern continue throughout the remainder of 2023.

• Although the sell-side has lowered their immediate and medium-term targets, our analysis points to another surprise to the downside for Sea Ltd (SE US) in 4Q22.
• Having exhausted pretty much all the cost-cutting in the past few quarters, we don’t see much room for Sea Ltd to further reduce its losses in the e-commerce business.
• With the sell-side optimistic once again expecting a narrower loss, a big miss in the fourth quarter could send Sea Ltd shares back towards their Nov 2022 lows.

• Alibaba (BABA US) is set to report earnings tomorrow on the 23rd
• Stock has pulled back from the highs but earnings could be the next catalyst to determine direction
• We use the derivatives market to extract market expectations and suggest some suitable trades

In the upcoming webinar, Datuk William will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

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• IQ released a set of clean-beat 4Q results, marking the end of turnaround and the start of high-quality growth.
• Years of investments in original content production capabilities paid off and solidified IQ’s leadership in China’s long form video industry. 
• Successful refinancing removed debt overhang. We expect IQ to generate RMB3.5 billion net profit out of RMB32 billion revenue for 2023 and see further upside to share price.  

• Huge operating margin and FCF beat as PANW is maintaining efficiency with slower headcount growth and supply chain issues abating supporting gross margins. 
• Deal sizes continue to grow dramatically: $1M deals grew 20% YoY, and  transactions size grew nearly 60%. $5M+ deals grew 84% YoY and $10M+ deals grew 140%.
• Prisma’ Access’ SASE product continues to be the catalyst driving 2.5x revenue lift vs. legacy firewalls.

• GoTo (GOTO IJ)  announced last week that it is accelerating its profit targets and aims to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by 4QFY2023, advanced by five quarters.
• The company also expects Group’s contribution margin to become positive within the first quarter of 2023 accelerated by four quarters compared to the company’s previous guidance.
• Having analyzed the company’s revenue and cost base, we think this is too much to ask for as aggressive cost cutting would lead to giving up future growth opportunities.

• Results have come out for both companies. Delta Thailand has delivered massive growth in 2022 however in 2023 consensus expects Delta Taiwan to grow faster.
• One way to outperform the Thailand SET Index in 2023E could be to simply hold the index stocks but exclude Delta Thailand.
• By essentially any fundamental metric, Delta Thailand is over-priced relative to Delta Taiwan and it’s hard to see what the next outperformance driver could be in 2023E.

• After Alludo stated its $2.15/share Offer price was ‘best and final’, even if a superior proposal emerges, the ball was in Potentia’s court to just sneak in above those terms.
• And so they have, with a $2.17/share unconditional Offer for Nitro (NTO AU), increasing to $2.20 if they get to 75% interest, and $2.25 if ≥25% tendering opt for scrip.
• Expect Nitro’s board to announce its unanimous support for Potentia’s revised Offer. Expect Alludo to cash in as tendering nears 75%. 

• Lattice Semiconductor had a solid 2022 and ended the year on a positive note with an all-around beat.
• The company increased its product portfolio and its core strategic markets for industrial, automotive, communications, and computing had a 28% increase in annual revenue.
• Besides, the industrial and automotive market experienced double-digit growth for the third year as full-year revenue grew by 41%.

• Fiserv had a decent 2022 and managed to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street in its last result.
• The company’s better-than-expected growth against the challenging backdrop was a result of growth in organic revenue, improvement in operating margin, and adjusted earnings per share.
• Fiserv also advanced its core banking cloud roadmap for its new and existing clients with the acquisition and integration of Finxact.

• Looking at the recent pattern, SKT’s fast-rising is quite noticeable. Its foreign room rose to 12.08%. On the other hand, KT’s foreign room growth seems to be slowing somewhat.
• SKT’s pace is fast. If the current pace continues, there will be even the possibility of inclusion with a full adjustment factor of 1.0, exceeding 25%, by the August review. 
• We should design a momentum trading setup targeting the point when SKT’s foreign room decline trend will be reflected into an MSCI re-inclusion momentum.

• Alibaba Group (9988 HK)‘s 3QFY23 results scheduled to release this Thursday is yet again going to be somewhat disappointing with our analysis indicating around RMB35.0bn OP cf. RMB49.7bn in 3QFY21.
• Nevertheless, 3QFY23 results could beat the conservative consensus revenue estimate by 2.8% while the OP is likely to be in line with consensus.
• Having risen 100%+ in few months, a small beat is unlikely to drive-up the share price any longer. Renewed US-China tensions are likely going to be a much bigger driver.

• The Scheme Meeting for BGH/Sixth Street’s NZ$1.34/share Offer for church donor management play Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) will take place on the 3 March.
• Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC), holding 6.2% of shares out, said it will vote against the Scheme. Nikko Asset Management (1.4%) also said they will reject the Offer. 
• Shares have wobbled and are now 5.5% adrift of terms. BGH/Sixth Street still has the flexibility to bump.

• Alludo has declared its Offer of A$2.15 cash per Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) share free from all remaining conditions.
• Separately, Potentia’s due diligence is expected to conclude tomorrow, the 22 February, with the expectation it bumps its current offer of A$2.00/share.
• Currently trading at A$2.20 per share suggesting limited upside from here. 

• Shareholders representing around 12.6% of outstanding shares have stated that they will vote against Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)’s NZ$1.34 offer from Sixth Street/BGH (scheme vote on 3 March). 
• The NO votes will need a less than 63% turnout to block the scheme. A 5% bump (NZ$1.41) would be in line with the IE’s valuation mid-point at current FX.
• Sixth Street/BGH have taken issue with the IE’s valuation (unsuitable FX rates and optimistic forecasts) and have got proxy advisors’ support. Therefore, a bump is not a sure thing. 

• Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) will report 4Q2022 and full-year results on 23rd March 2023.
• The company’s livestreaming revenues have made significant progress since 4Q2021 while its domestic business reported an operating profit for the first time in 3Q2022.
• Though the company’s share price has not moved up yet, we think there is further upside to the current share price driven by improved earnings.

• The index constituent weights of the TWSE Div+ Index will be capped during the upcoming March 2023 Index quarterly index review. 
• Previously, it looked like there were going to be no flows. However, now my expectations have changed, as of Monday’s close (they weren’t going to change as of Friday).
• In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s expectations for index flows resulting from these events. 

• Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest electric-vehicle (EV) battery-maker, is in talks to offer automakers steeply discounted prices in exchange for sourcing the vast bulk of their power cells from the company in a bid to stave off growing competition from smaller rivals, Caixin has learned.
• If the plan goes ahead, CATL will sell the strategic clients EV batteries made from self-manufactured lithium carbonate at a low price.
• In return, they will be required to sign a contract committing them to buy 80% of their EV batteries from CATL over the next three years, a person close to the company told Caixin on Sunday.

Lenovo has posted weak Q3/22-23 results. Revenue dropped 24% y-o-y to USD 15.3 bn, with gross profit down 22% at USD 2.6 bn and operating profit declining 20% to USD 750 mn. Net profit fell 32% to USD 437 mn. Positively, liquidity remains sound, with over USD 5 bn of cash and USD 20 bn of undrawn credit facilities. OCF stayed positive at USD 74 mn.

• Singapore-headquartered last-mile internet connectivity startup Transcelestial Technologies has received US$10 million in a Series A extension round.
• Existing investor Airbus Ventures led the round, with participation from Kickstart Ventures, Genesis Alternative Ventures, Wavemaker, Cap Vista, and SEEDS Captial. In-Q-Tel had also joined in a previous undisclosed round.
• The new round brings Transcelestial’s total investment raised to date to US$24 million.

• Berkshire’s TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire’s TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.
• Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)
• TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.

• TY Holdings (363280 KS) is the 19th company in our Korea Small Cap Gems series.
• Our NAV analysis of TY Holdings suggests NAV of 925.5 billion won or NAV per share of 18,172 won per share, which is 47.4% higher than current share price.
• The key catalysts include earnings improvements at SBS and Ecorbit, potential corporate activism on SBS, and potential change in regulation to allow foreigners to invest in SBS (terrestrial broadcasting company). 

• This weekend at the NBA All-Star weekend, we saw the NBA commissioner Adam Silver unveil an in-game streaming experience which had the internet in awe.
• Many have decided to brand the ‘Metaverse’ a sham, a dystopian digital experience or something that just plain won’t work.
• When Mark Zuckerberg changed Facebook’s name to ‘Meta’ to indicate the direction of travel he thinks the world is heading in — we should probably have sat up and said “there might be something there”

• Arista delivered an all-around beat in the last quarter to finish 2022 on a positive note.
• Renewals of services and software support made up about 15.8% of the total revenue in the year.
• Arista added SONiC functionality to its high-volume switches to further strengthen its collaboration with Microsoft.

• Cloudflare had another strong quarter despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• The company delivered an all-around beat and its revenue increased by 42% year over year to $274.7 million.
• They had 2,042 major customers at the end of the quarter, up 134 over the previous quarter and 44% over the same period last year.

• Motorola’s Q4 results were an all-around beat as the company is seeing a strong demand for its business security products.
• In the quarter, the company increased operating margins by 150 basis points, revenue by 17%, and profits per share by 26%.
• They experienced 14% revenue growth in their Products and Systems Integration business, led by strong growth in both LMR and video security.

• Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
• Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
• There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.

• Chinese online game revenue decreased year over year for the first time since the statistic started.
• From 2018, the Press and Publishing Administration had significantly reduced the number of new game license.
• Short video has been gradually taking time on site from online game.

• The Chinese online game market shrank for the first time in 2022.
• Tencent’s WeChat plans to launch a cooked food delivery platform.
• Douyin dismissed 15% employees in PICO, which is Douyin’s virtual reality team.

• TSMC – Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company.
• UMC – ADR now trading at a discount. Pretty clear opportunity for a reversion back to a premium.
• ChipMOS – At parity, results coming February 23rd. We maintain a model on the company.

• The announcement of the changes to the FTSE GEIS was made on Friday post market close. Friday was also the cutoff for the March review of the S&P/ASX indices.
• Monday is the review cutoff for some indices, while Friday is the announcement of the changes to the Hang Seng family of indices and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX). 
• There were big outflows from the IShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV US) for yet another week taking YTD outflows to nearly US$3bn.

• AMD’s revenue and margins hit an all-time high, and that’s bad news for AMD.
• Investors should pay close attention to decisions regarding capital allocation, according to the product roadmap.
• AMD is no longer the only game in town for semiconductors, and this is bad news to AMD.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• PayPal Holdings delivered strong results in the last quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• In the quarter, eBay Marketplaces revenue fell by 31%, and the take rate on these volumes dropped from 2.29% to 1.95%.
• We give PayPal Holdings a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price.

• Qualcomm has been witnessing various short-term challenges impacting the semiconductor industry which is why its revenues in the last result were below Wall Street expectations.
• In handsets, the recently announced Snapdragon Gen 2 mobile platform of the company in order to create AI-accelerated experiences for smartphones.
• Within IoT, multiple end industries and the handset industry continue to experience weaker demand and elevated inventory levels.

• IRDM grew the number of Internet of things (“IOT”) users in the fourth quarter to offset the seasonal maritime service decline.
• Much of the attention is on IRDM’s satellite connectivity partnership with Qualcomm (QCOM) expected to begin generating revenue in the second half of 2023
• IRDM reported fourth quarter revenue of $193.8 million compared to our estimate of $176.0 million

• Microchip had a solid fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
• Microchip has also increased the raw materials inventory to protect the internal manufacturing chains.
• In terms of new launches, Microchip launched the MIC69303RT, a 3A Low-Dropout Voltage Regulator in the previous quarter.

• At the EGM held on January 31, O2Micro International (OIIM US)’s shareholders approved the Merger Agreement. Completion was subject to satisfying certain conditions, which appeared rudimentary. 
• An equity corporate action notice released yesterday (15 February) indicates the last day of trading will be the 24 February, with an effective date of 27 Feb.
• O2Micro is currently at a 2.7% gross spread. At the other end of the spectrum, Glory Star New Media (GSMG US) is at a staggering 79% spread, despite shareholder approval.

• Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) is an interesting, but odd little company in an interesting odd little niche. They make cybersecurity products and are good at it. 
• Last summer, well-known activist Value Act Capital showed up on the tape in August with an 8.7% position. 
• What had been good dividend payout ratios are now cemented. Now there is a big buyback to return cash. Look for more. And as always, details matter. 

• We published last November about buying upside via selling call ratios and also about a vol pair trade idea versus AAPL US.
• Buffet has surprisingly exited the bulk of his stake in the chip maker causing concern that the value investor no longer sees value
• We update on the position and consider what to do next

• We expect ACMR to report C4Q22 top-line, non-IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 21% and 96% vs. consensus, respectively. 
• New SPE import limits provide ACMR with a multi category quasi-monopoly. Thus, we raise our FY23 market share estimate for ECD/wafer clean/furnace to 51%/32%/2% from prior 25%/25%/0%.
• ACMR’s quasi-monopoly position in multiple categories sustain its long-run growth, which underlines a 58% TP increase to US$ 30 and continued status as our top hardware pick.

• MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.
• The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.
• Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

• We forecast that Unity’s top line/bottom line would be 2.8% /24.7% vs cons. in 4Q22, with  synergies from ironSource merger to take effect and gaming market to gradually recover. 
• Price increase for Create segment and improved monetization for Operate segment would further boost the company’s 2023 outlook, leading to top line/bottom line beating cons. by 3%/55%.
• Due to our optimism of both industry and company uptrend, we upgrade to BUY and raise TP to US$ 48.2, implying 7.2X PS/ 159X PE in 2023.

• We estimate SEA’s 4Q22 revenue to be largely in line with cons., while non-GAAP net loss to be narrower than cons. 
• We see SEA to continue to experience challenges in top-line growth because of inflation, competition with TikTok, and weak performance of Free Fire. Yet, the losses will be better managed.
• We slightly raise SE’s TP by 6% to US$55 to reflect 4Q22’s margin beat, yet maintain SELL because of the mid-to-long-term challenges.

• We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. 
• We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.
• Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.

EQS has issued a year-end trading update, showing that it achieved its targets for number of new customers and for annually recurring revenues. However, the continuing delays to the full implementation of the whistleblowing legislation in the key German market mean that the group has missed its previously published targets for revenue and for EBITDA by €1.5m and €1.3m respectively. Guidance for FY23 now reflects an abundance of caution on the likely timing of the legislative stimulus, assuming that the law is not transposed until Q323. Our new forecasts align with the lower end of the guided range for now. Despite the delays, the shares continue to trade well below the level indicated by the DCF.

• Alphabet is going through a tough period.
• The company’s stock is losing value given the expected impact of the popularity of ChatGPT on its Search revenues.
• We downgrade the stock of Alphabet and give it a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

• Amazon delivered a mixed result as its worldwide net sales grew by 12% year over year which was above the expectation of Wall Street.
• The company worked hard to secure millions of deals and offer low prices for customers this quarter, including its foremost Prime Early Access Sale and the Thanksgiving.
• In the quarter, Amazon customers spent more on everyday essentials and shifted to lower-priced and value brands in electronics.

• On 7 November 2022 we published a bullish TSS / tactical recommendation in TSM US. It was trading at 62.49. TSM US rallied 13.4% in 3 days. 
• On 15 February 2023 TSM US peaked at a new Q4/Q1 uptrend high of 98.99 amid similar extreme ST momentum failure and quickly reversed.
• Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 8-10% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

• T-Mobile has recently been in the news for suffering from a major network outage affecting around 83,000 customers.
• T-Mobile added many new customers but the company ended Q4 on a mixed note.
• Their financial results also enabled them to launch share repurchases earlier than anticipated and speed up network rollouts.

• One constituent change is expected in the BATTERY index rebalancing as Ecopro Co Ltd surpassed Iljin Materials based on the average daily market cap during the review period.
• Ecopro Co Ltd is a pure holding company, so it may not be subject to inclusion. However, KRX recognizes related sales from unlisted subsidiaries as sales from the holding company.
• The actual passive impact of the rebalancing day will likely be 0.15x or more for both. This level can enable a long-short setup for these from a day trading perspective.

• NDX continues to hug lower range support after meeting the 13k short level. 12,050 is the level to break to ratchet lower to 11,800. Ultimately, new lows attract.
• Use an uptick to add to this short and linked assets. USD strength, higher yields will weigh on tech going forward.
• A rotational shift is due that favors a more defensive stance. 

• Due to the recent news by the Malaysian government that aims to in-house the e-government service, My E.G. Services (MYEG MK) share price fell, similar to the 2018 event.
• Revenue from the Philippines business went up 5x and contributed up to USD 91 million, or around 52% of FY 2021 total revenue. 
• It gives a great opportunity for investors who believe in MYEG’s story to start building position.

• freee (4478 JP) reported 2QFY06/2023 results today. Revenue increased 35.3% YoY to JPY4,479m (vs consensus JPY4,469.5m) while operating losses for the quarter widened to JPY1,281m (vs consensus JPY1,574.5m).
• Both ARPU and no. of paying customers continue to increase and the company’s strategy of onboarding large corporates seems to pay off.
• Widening operating loss is no major concern as it is a matter of time before freee cuts down advertising and other costs given the expanding revenue base and excessive GPM.

• Viavi’s result for the second quarter of 2023 performed better than Wall Street expectations as the company delivered an all-around beat, driven by NSE performance aided by stabilization in service provider demand and spending.
• The company’s OSP business increased year over year and performed within the forecast.
• NSE decreased sequentially and year over year due to weaker fiber and wireless lab product demand.

• Monday.com Ltd.’s Q4 earnings report could be the catalyst investors have been waiting for.
• The company’s sustained hyper-growth trajectory is assisted by the successful integration of CRM tools and a synergetic marketplace.
• monday.com Ltd. (NASDAQ:MNDY) released its Q4 earnings report on Monday morning. The company’s quarterly results beat analysts’ estimates comprehensively, which caused MNDY stock to surge.

• Peloton delivered a mixed performance in the quarter as its revenues were well above Wall Street expectations but the company’s losses were wider than expected.
• Peloton’s reserves, related to the stock from their Tonic production facilities, decreased their Connected Fitness gross margin by around $32 million for the quarter.
• FaaS has doubled and expanded quickly in the quarter though it does face significant competitive threats from players like Tonal.

• DXC achieved a decent set of results with strong bookings resulting in $3.57 billion in revenues meeting Wall Street expectations.
• Their organic revenue increased for the second consecutive quarter and the company delivered an earnings beat.
• DXC continues to increase margins and stabilize revenue in GIS.

• Meta Platforms performed a mixed result with earnings below expectations, ending a rather difficult fiscal year.
• The management claims that number of daily users of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp is at an all-time high.
• Facebook’s engagement is decent, and it is expanding globally, with over 2 billion daily and approximately 3 billion monthly active users.

• Qorvo delivered a strong set of results and managed an all-around beat.
• Its power business in particular, reported a successful quarter with active design work for its silicon carbide power products.
• For WiFi products in their Connectivity and Sensors Group, the third quarter showed decreased end-market demand and channel inventory consumption.