In today’s briefing:
- JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami’s Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet
- Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)
- Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
- Trial to Become 5th Biggest Supermarket Post-IPO
- Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Buy the Dip; Time to Reap Benefit of Business Expansion
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami’s Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet
- Just under 6 weeks ago, Japanese activist Murakami-san’s company and daughter reported a 5+% stake in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). They bought after a sharp dip caused CRE-related writedowns.
- As is normal, they bought more (now 8.92%) post-5%-filing-trigger, but before the actual first filing. And as is normal these days, the stock popped on the first filing.
- Then it fell, and hasn’t recovered much. So far, on a weighted basis, they are up 1% vs TOPIX Banks Index.
Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)
- The Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) Board has responded with several questions regarding AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s pre-conditional hostile offer of JPY3,000 per share.
- The Board questions the transaction’s schedule, terms and potential synergies. The Board has also used the ruse that due diligence access would justify a higher offer price.
- Expect several rounds of Q&A and a delay to the tender start. If shares continue trading through terms ahead of the tender start, AZ-COM Maruwa will likely have to bump.
Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
- The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
- Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.
- In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.
Trial to Become 5th Biggest Supermarket Post-IPO
- Trial, the discount FMCG and retail technology company, completed its IPO last month, achieving an initial market capitalisation higher than most of its rivals in the supermarket sector.
- If forecasts for FY2023 are achieved, it will become the 5th largest chain in the country and its proprietary technology should give it an important advantage in the medium term.
- But its position at the centre of the fast-growing discount sector will drive the real growth, and the Kyushu-based firm will emerge as challenger to leading retailers.
Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Buy the Dip; Time to Reap Benefit of Business Expansion
- Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) opened 57 facilities during FY20–23, which raised total borrowings 37% YoY to ¥17B in FY23 and further to ¥19B at the end of Q1FY24.
- The impact of the monetary policy is expected to be immaterial based on the current interest incidence of just 0.44%. Interest expenses account for less than 1% of revenue.
- Amvis started FY24 on a solid note, with all key parameters reporting more than 30% YoY growth in Q1FY24. The company has reiterated full-year FY24 guidance.
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