In today’s briefing:
- Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?
- Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD
- NTGR: The Value of an Upgrade Cycle
Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?
- Copper supply facing headwinds with a shortage of copper ore which has led to spiraling copper refining margins.
- Copper futures trading sharply higher than cash prices and term structure for copper futures has steepened.
- Gold to copper ratio can be used to express a bullish view on copper prices with relatively lower risk compared to a straightforward long copper position.
Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD
- The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
- Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
- We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.
NTGR: The Value of an Upgrade Cycle
- The first quarter is seasonally the softest for selling wireless routers. The expectations for NTGR are for the firm to generate positive free cash flow while revenue declines sequentially.
- We are anticipating NTGR’s cash per share to reach approximately $12 for the March quarter and maintain a forecast of $14 per share by the end of 2024
- The price competition at the lower end remains unchanged and dependent on NTGR clearing out inventory ahead of the peak selling period in the second half of the year
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
