In today’s briefing:
- Toshiba (6502) Ownership Structure – “Hostage to Toshiba” Larger Than Real World Float
- Link Net: Home Straight For Axiata’s MTO
- Toshiba – Headed For A Showdown
- Ardent Leisure’s EGM Approves the Main Event Sale
- PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB
- (Mostly) Asia M&A: June 2022 Roundup
- HAL Holding/Royal Boskalis Westminster: Offer Launch & Precedent of Orange/Orange Belgium
Toshiba (6502) Ownership Structure – “Hostage to Toshiba” Larger Than Real World Float
- Every year, the yukashoken hokokusho shows a breakdown of share ownership by owner category. It only happens once a year for most companies.
- It is a crucial input to knowing where the shares are and how people are positioned. It also shows who and how big is Real World Float.
- This year’s data shows a surprisingly small change year-on-year for Foreign Active Ownership, which is the biggest category. A little musical chairs, but no chairs removed.
Link Net: Home Straight For Axiata’s MTO
- Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) recently completed the acquisition of a 66.03% stake in Link Net (LINK IJ).
- Axiata is now obligated to undertake a mandatory tender (MTO) offer to acquire the remaining 33.97% equity interest in Link Net. There are no conditions attached to the MTO.
- The MTO is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2022. The spread has narrowed, yet there is still some left.
Toshiba – Headed For A Showdown
- Following the resignation of director Mariko Watahiki yesterday, the results for the shareholder votes are in for Toshiba.
- Watahiki unsurprisingly had a low approval ratio of 65.87% but activist-linked directors also saw less than stellar approval ratios as did new CEO Taro Shimada.
- Toshiba’s path forward looks increasingly murky and lofty valuations bid up on privatisation hopium look increasingly tenuous.
Ardent Leisure’s EGM Approves the Main Event Sale
- Ardent Leisure Group Ltd (ALG AU)‘s shareholders have approved Dave & Buster’S Entertainment, Inc (PLAY US) acquisition of Main Event business. Ardent will receive A$670.3 million.
- Shareholders will receive a total return of A$0.95 through capital return (A$0.46) and unfranked special dividends (A$0.49) on 13 July.
- Precedent transactions and peer multiples suggest that the remaining business is worth A$0.23-0.30, implying a 16%-21% upside to the last close. The remaining business would be attractive to private equity.
PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB
- Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX).
- We see a high probability of Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) replacing Security Bank (SECB PM) in the index.
- Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.
(Mostly) Asia M&A: June 2022 Roundup
- For the month of June, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
- The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in June was ~32%.
- This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.
HAL Holding/Royal Boskalis Westminster: Offer Launch & Precedent of Orange/Orange Belgium
- The acceptance period runs until 2 September. HAL now controls 52.9% of Boskalis (Stichting Hyacinth will presumably keep buying at €32 or less). HAL will consolidate Boskalis from H2 2022.
- The Boards of Boskalis have concluded that the offer price is not sufficiently convincing to recommend it to Boskalis’ shareholders. Good try, but twisting HAL’s arm seems difficult. Premium is 0.06%.
- Considering the precedent of Orange/Orange Belgium, I would only open a position below the offer price. HAL will now consolidate Boskalis and does not need to sweeten the offer.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
