Event-Driven Archives | Page 12 of 186 | Smartkarma

TaylorMade is up for sale. TaylorMade is one of the most valuable, golf equipment brands globally.
We labeled this article as Bearish due to concerns about F&F getting into this M&A battle for TaylorMade in the first place which could result in overpaying for this deal.
We would rather have F&F take the win and provide higher returns to its shareholders.

StubWorld: Wilmar Trading “Cheap” To YKA. Understandably.

Wilmar International (WIL SP) is coming up “cheap” to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); yet implied stub numbers suggests otherwise.
Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.

Trading Halt on 79 NXT Stocks in Korea: Screening Key Names to Watch for Spread Plays

NXT’s halt will be live tomorrow, likely shaking local flows. With 15–20% tape share, blocked tickers spill to KRX, thinning books, widening spreads, and hitting retail-heavy liquidity.
When NXT goes dark, books thin, fills slip, and prices swing sharply — widening spreads and creating risk (or alpha) in retail-heavy tickers for short-term or intraday trades.
Below is a hit list of 500B+ KRW stocks where NXT takes 40%+ volume — watch these Phase 1 tickers as trading halts shake up flow and spreads.

Smart Share Global: An Interesting Merger Arb Play

By Nicholas Tan

Smart Share Global (EM US) , previously known as “Energy Monster”, is a rather interesting merger arbitrage situation.
It provides a unique risk/reward balance analogous to the famous adage, “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much”.
In this note, we examine the company and the merger dynamics.

Q&A with Magnera IR

I expect relatively stable revenue in fiscal 2026 (flat to slightly down), barring a macro shock.
However, with progress on synergies (65% of the $55MM net synergy target expected to be realized in fiscal 2026) and Project CORE (more on this below), I believe adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will grow.
I continue to be impressed with the management team. Their focus is on generating cash, shaped by their experience running Berry under several different private equity sponsors (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Apollo).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering
Real-Time Read on Korea’s Top Market Narrative — Tax Reform Play
Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO
BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August ’25 Report

FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025

The Ministry of Finance has published an updated “FEFTA List” of classifications of listed companies as of July 15, 2025.
50 names lowered their ranks from the most “core” Type 3 to Type 2(20), or Type 1(30). 104 names raised from Type 1(51) or Type 2(53) to Type 3.
Smartkarma readers may want to peruse the lists and details to see if they think companies are trying to protect themselves (from threats as yet not known by the public).

Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So

Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage.

Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
Spread >10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em

On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September.
Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).
The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive – upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).

Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering

On 14 August, Hanon Systems (018880 KS) announced a potential rights offering capital raise. The exact amount will be finalized at the EGM next month.
The significant size of the rights offering is expected to burden its largest shareholder Hankook Tire & Technology (161390 KS) which owns a 54.8% stake in Hanon Systems.
We believe the potential rights offering is likely to continue to negatively impact Hanon Systems by diluting its existing shareholders.

Real-Time Read on Korea’s Top Market Narrative — Tax Reform Play

Even the revised draft is facing possible first-ever presidential non-approval, which acts like a de facto veto between Cabinet approval and National Assembly submission.
The admin aims to make stocks outperform real estate, with a dividend tax cut under separate taxation as the key lever, fully recognized by the Presidential Office.
Local markets are pulling back on Presidential Office delays, but signals point to a clear reform direction — time to build mid-term positions in banks and holdcos.

Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO

Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, has announced a non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.
Adamantem is offering A$0.88/share, a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms are firmed, shareholders will also be afforded a partial scrip option into an unlisted bidco.
Adamantem has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out at A$0.88/share. An independent board committee are assessing the approach. Due diligence not yet granted.

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA’s rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain’s three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August ’25 Report

MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 18

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Curator’s Cut: Singapore Unlocks Value and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: Singapore Unlocks Value, India’s Jewellery Caution & Taiwan’s Top ETF’s Rebalance
Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Emerges with a Competing Offer
Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Still A Buy As Pledged Shares Further Decline
Weekly Deals Digest (17 Aug) – Kangji Medical, HKBN, Shengjing, Carenet, Shibaura, Rezil, Yomeishu
Weekly Update (Qnity, MEDXF, STRZ, UNTC)

Curator’s Cut: Singapore Unlocks Value, India’s Jewellery Caution & Taiwan’s Top ETF’s Rebalance

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review value-unlocking moves by Singapore-listed companies, take stock of India’s jewellery retail market, and track how Taiwan’s largest ETF drives flows for its adds and deletes
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Joy City Property (207 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Emerges with a Competing Offer

Smart Share Global (EM US) has disclosed a competing non-binding offer from Hillhouse at US$1.77 per ADS, a 41.6% premium to the Trustar offer.
The Hillhouse proposal meets the criteria for a superior proposal. The support agreement enables management rollover shareholders to switch allegiance from Trustar to Hillhouse.
Unlike the Trustar offer, the Hillhouse offer is above the last reported net cash (US$1.62 per ADS). The high premium suggests a low probability that Trustar bumps.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Still A Buy As Pledged Shares Further Decline

Back in May this year, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
This situation was discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call. Reportedly Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, leading to margin calls.
On the 16th August, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged, with pledged shares in KTC now at 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Aug) – Kangji Medical, HKBN, Shengjing, Carenet, Shibaura, Rezil, Yomeishu

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Rezil (176A JP), Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP).

Weekly Update (Qnity, MEDXF, STRZ, UNTC)

Dupont (DD) management gave guidance on its last earnings call that it remains on track to separate its electronics business on November 1, 2025.
Given that it is a Saturday, I expect regular way trading to begin on November 3.
The spin-off of the electronics business will be step one of Dupont’s 3-part breakup which was announced in May 2024.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 17

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk
[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now
Edelweiss Financial (EDEL IN): Attractive Valuations with Value Unlocking on the Anvil
Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer
Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings
Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September
Strategic Developments: LWAY’s Strong Q2, RTAC’s Decline, WOW Buyout, and Samsonite’s Dual Listing Plans
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew” continues. Enormous swings in H/A ratios in high AH premia names, materials, and non-bank finance.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) fell 2.9% on the week, 2.2% from Monday close to Friday. AH premium fell a tick.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.
Last week’s reco Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday’s close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
The price for minorities is OK, not great. The Board talks up synergies not included in fair value considerations, and Dentsu+Docomo are actually buying it 15% cheaper.
That comes out to a net price below the bottom end of the DCF range. Aaargh. But Dentsu+irrevocables+ large individuals likely gets this over the line cleanly.

Edelweiss Financial (EDEL IN): Attractive Valuations with Value Unlocking on the Anvil

By Himanshu Dugar

Edelweiss is a financial services platform offering asset management, lending, and insurance. It has restructured its corporate model in recent years, shifting from a diversified conglomerate to operating standalone businesses.
The proposed IPO of the alternate-assets business and stake sale in MF business creates an event-driven opportunity. Group is out of liquidity issues now with legacy ARC assets resolved.
Stock corrected 20% in the last month after SEBI returned the IPO application. We note that the reason was just reporting changes and company is on track for 2026 IPO.

Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer

After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)entered into a Scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) after terms were bumped.
GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR’s indirect stake in Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This includes any fully franked dividend.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair & reasonable. It is.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it’s not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire’s B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.
Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

By Special Situation Investments

The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR’s NST stake.
The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Strategic Developments: LWAY’s Strong Q2, RTAC’s Decline, WOW Buyout, and Samsonite’s Dual Listing Plans

Lifeway Foods’ Q2 results show 10% sales growth and 18% volume increase, enhancing leverage in Danone negotiations.
Renatus Tactical Acquisition’s stock declined by 6% amid speculation on crypto treasury strategy, maintaining attractive risk-reward profile.
WideOpenWest buyout concluded at $5.2/share, offering 65% premium to recent levels, despite undervaluation concerns.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Rezil (176A JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).
Key updates/news took place on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?
Playing Korea’s Hot Secondary Battery Sector Rotation
Dentium – Cancellation of 2.44 Million Treasury Shares (22% of Outstanding Shares)

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting

In Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?, I concluded Shengjing Bank (2066 HK) was one bank I would avoid. It’s now suspended pursuant to the Takeovers code.
Shengjing Bank had one of the largest P/B and net income declines in recent years. It had borderline allowance/provision coverage. It also had the lowest net interest margin.
Shengjing Bank is PRC-incorporated, therefore any delisting proposal would involve a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote. And probably a tendering condition.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?

Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the publication of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
It is likely that the SASAC of Shenyang Municipal People’s Government, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Shengjing.
Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00-HK$2.80, a 75.4%-145% premium to the last close.

Playing Korea’s Hot Secondary Battery Sector Rotation

Battery-Sector rotation is heating up in Korea as active ETFs sharply boost LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI, signaling renewed sector focus amid ESS growth and easing valuation pressures.
Watch for supply-demand dislocations during battery-sector ETF rebalances; top-heavy names may see concentrated flows, amplifying trading intensity and driving larger-than-normal price swings.
The 25% cap reversion could move LG Energy Solution down and SK Innovation up ~5pp, with flows hitting -0.2x/+0.6x DTV, potentially amplified by aggressive sector inflows.

Dentium – Cancellation of 2.44 Million Treasury Shares (22% of Outstanding Shares)

Dentium announced that it has decided to cancel all of its 2.44 million treasury shares (22% of its outstanding shares).
This is massive and should have a positive impact on Dentium’s share price.
Although the company reported a disappointing results in 2Q 2025 and its exports to China are slowing down, the company still generates healthy operating margins (18.9% in 2Q 2025).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout
Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA
[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?
HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment
StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)
HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer
Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else.
But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

By Devi Subhakesan

A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are – Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP).
The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today.

[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago.
This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.

StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But not as cheap to 44.3%-held Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) as it was recently. Opt for a net long trade here.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp – and JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM) / Universal Robina (URC PM) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
An even bigger factor on HMM’s share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company.
Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer

Despite its previous protestations, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has unexpectedly matched Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY6,200 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Minebea’s actions suggest that Yageo has a good chance of securing regulatory approval. Otherwise, Minebea could have kept its offer unchanged and patiently waited for the Yageo offer to fail.
Given the significant sunk costs, Yageo is likely to bump. Without increasing its offer, shareholders will have a greater inclination to tender and help Minebea meet its minimum tendering condition.

Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Rezil (176A JP) has recommended a tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY2,750, a 57.1% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,750.
The offer is attractive as it aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range, represents an all-time high and is 129.2% above the IPO price of JPY1,200.
This is a done deal as Hikari Tsushin, a cross-holder, tendering is sufficient to meet the minimum tendering condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 6.8%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better
Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways
Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.
[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.
CareNet (2150 JP): EQT’s Tender Offer at JPY1,130
Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm…

Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways

One of the hottest local plays is gauging KRX and FSS leanings on Biologics split, which could drive short-term alpha across the three Samsung names alongside battery and HBM flows.
Short-Term focus is KRX pre-listing review and FSS registration window. Once approval and lock-up kick in, Biologics and Samsung Electronics could outperform Samsung C&T.
From a risk-hedge angle, this is a long-short alpha setup: if the split fails, Samsung C&T likely takes the hit, offering alpha potential both ways.

Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.

Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play Tyro (TYR AU) provided Potentia with due diligence to “enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal“. Potentia walked away from talks in May.
Then crickets. Yesterday (12th August), Tyro’s shares gained 10.6%. After announcing this morning it has received unsolicited NBIOs, shares gained a further 8.6% (as I type), touching a 17-month high.
At A$1.17/share, Tyro is ~27% adrift of Potentia’s last confirmed indicative Offer.

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.

Todfay after the close, EQT and Carenet Inc (2150 JP) announced an EQT SPC would launch a TOB to buy out the medical platform business.
A growthy business so the multiple looks light. But the founder and his incubation fund is selling. That’s 19%. Insiders/crossholders hold another 25%. One recent seller still has 10%.
This looks like it gets done, but it isn’t at the highs of 4+ years ago. Some retail may be upset.

CareNet (2150 JP): EQT’s Tender Offer at JPY1,130

Carenet Inc (2150 JP) has recommended a tender offer from EQT (EQT SS) at JPY1,130, a 47.3% premium to the last close.
Despite the lack of an auction, the offer is reasonable as it aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and at a premium to historical ranges.
Irrevocables to accept represent a 17.03% ownership ratio. This is likely a done deal with payment from 7 October.

Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.
Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.
Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 13

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs
StubWorld: Swire Pac’s NAV Discount Widens. Bs Outperform As
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): TPG/QIA/Founder’s Offer Is No Knockout
LS Corp: Treasury Share Cancellation of 171 Billion Won
Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs

Covered call ETFs ramped up KOSPI 200 weekly call selling, pushing premiums unusually low despite modest overall volume—likely a key driver behind the premium compression.
KOSPI 100 outperformed KOSPI 200 small-mid caps by 3.7%p last month, probably boosted by call-selling ETFs’ delta-hedge buying concentrated in large caps.
Watch for hedge buy flows ramping up before big events. Timing short-term longs in large caps and shorts in smaller KOSPI 200 names around these windows can yield solid alpha.

StubWorld: Swire Pac’s NAV Discount Widens. Bs Outperform As

As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire’s B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.
Preceding my comments on Pac, Swire Properties (1972 HK) & Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection). The offer is final.
The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): TPG/QIA/Founder’s Offer Is No Knockout

Medical device play Kangji Medical (9997 HK) has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and the Qatar Investment Authority, together with founders.
The consortium is offering HK$9.25/share, a less-than-inspiring 9.9% premium to last close. The price has been declared final. It is 33.4% below the HK$13.88 2020 IPO price.
Independent shareholders hold 25.25% of shares out. They could bare teeth; and they’ve been somewhat active at AGMs. But on balance, there’s probably enough here for this to get up.

LS Corp: Treasury Share Cancellation of 171 Billion Won

On 12 August, LS Corp (006260 KS) announced that it will cancel 1 million treasury shares (171 billion won), representing 3.1% of its outstanding shares.
This is significant, especially because the company has not cancelled any shares in the past five years. This move signals the company’s willingness to provide greater returns to its shareholders.
LS plans to increase its dividend by at least 5% annually, to reach dividend payout of at least 30% by 2030.

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

The EC’s conditional clearance removes the final regulatory risk for Prosus’s €20.30/share JET acquisition, leaving only procedural steps. Current 0.69% spread reflects a near-99% implied probability of deal completion.
Structural remedies (Delivery Hero stake cut, governance exit, voting restrictions) ensure JET and Delivery Hero remain independent competitors. An independent trustee will oversee compliance under the European Commission’s binding commitments.
Early entrants capture ~9.6% annualized return; late entrants ~4.0%. Post-clearance, the market shows minimal mispricing, making the trade appealing only for short-term, low-volatility capital deployment strategies.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 12

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades
[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book
Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price
A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues
Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush
NLOP Update; Liquidation on Track

Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup

Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.

Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades

KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.

[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender.
But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

AH premia down, bouncing back. “Beautiful Skew” continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile – often the sign of significant distribution changes.
The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer

Kolon Corp (002020 KS)(KC) is seeking to delist 75.23%-held Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS) (KM), an auto importer.
Via a dual approach, KC is offering ₩4,000 per KM common share and ₩5,950 per KM preferred share. Any untendered shares will be swapped into KC shares.
The tender offer period is from 8th August to 8th September, with payment on the 10th September. There is no minimum acceptance condition.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
Last week’s reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

On 7 August, Bloomberg reported that Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP) is considering going private and has received acquisition proposals from several investment funds.
Privatisation is a neat solution for the Board to get rid of a potentially problematic activist shareholder, Yukihiro Nomura, the son-in-law of Yoshiaki Murakami.
PE interest is underpinned by Yomeishu’s net cash and significant real estate assets. However, the shares are up 63% YTD, which leaves little room for additional upside. Take profits.

SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context:SoftBank’s (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.
Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.
Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.

NLOP Update; Liquidation on Track

NLOP just declared a $3.10 special dividend, funded by cash from asset sales.
The company has zero recourse debt, $78M cash, and continues to sell properties well above the market’s implied valuation.
In Q2, NLOP sold a vacant building for $81/sf and a JPMorgan-leased asset for $143/sf at a 12.1% cap rate.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 11

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends
Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Aug25), Changes to Code of Corporate Conduct
SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes
Weekly Deals Digest (10 Aug) – Shibaura, Toyo Construction, Technopro, Ashimori, HKBN, Iress
Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)

[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends

In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted.
Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low.
Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,850/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP).

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Aug25), Changes to Code of Corporate Conduct

By Special Situation Investments

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
783 new CGRs filed in July 2025 (after 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 9 July. The parent-sub changes are slow to come.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes

Mayne Pharma faces legal challenges with Cosette over merger termination, maintaining no breach occurred; hearing set for September 9.
OCI N.V. plans $700m shareholder return via capital repayment and extraordinary dividend, with ex-dividend date on August 18.
Banxa’s acquisition vote set for August 28, with regulatory approvals pending; spread narrows from 38% to 25%.

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Aug) – Shibaura, Toyo Construction, Technopro, Ashimori, HKBN, Iress

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: I have not covered anything notable this week.
Event-Driven developments:Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Iress Ltd (IRE AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU).

Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)