Event-Driven Archives | Page 16 of 187 | Smartkarma

GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed.
The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.

[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal

Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group.
The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look.
But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business.

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.

Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up

Property developer Guangdong – Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Holdings (1396 HK) (GHKGBA) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
GHKGBA, previously known as Hydoo, was subject to an unconditional MGO in 2019 after China Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (CGHKGBA) acquired a 51.56%. CGHKGBA currently holds a 50.94% stake
At a guess, CGHKGBA will seek to take GHKGBA private by way of a Scheme. The rub/pushback? GHKGBA’s share price is up 2,383% YTD. And trailing P/B is ~7x.

DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light

Diamond Dining (3073 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY1,700, a 17.8% premium to the last close price.
The offer is light and is 16% below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The process was lacking as there was no auction.
DD has no recent history of activism. Therefore, the likelihood of a bump is low unless there is vocal opposition or an activist becomes a substantial shareholder.

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge

By Special Situation Investments

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.65 per unit, a 14.7% premium to its previously rejected offer.
The Board will grant six weeks of due diligence. While below NTA (implies P/NTA of 0.95x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
The consortium will likely need to switch to a takeover offer as National Storage REIT (NSR AU), which holds effectively a blocking stake, is unlikely to vote in favour.

Merger and Acquisition Updates: GLXZ, OCFT, ASLI:L, and CPPTL’s Strategic Developments

Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) merger with Evolution AB is pending gaming regulatory review, with a 14% spread remaining.
OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT) secured antitrust approval from SAMR for Ping An takeover, narrowing spread to 5%.
abrdn European Logistics Income (ASLI:L) sold two warehouses at a premium, with further asset sales in advanced discussions.

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy
Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making
A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression
Weekly Deals Digest (13 Jul) – Toyota Industries, OneConnect, Great Eastern, Johns Lyng, NTT DC REIT
Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Kirsh/Public Storage Bump And Afforded Due Diligence
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot
Weekly Update (GCI, IGT/BRSL, Greenblatt)

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU).

Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making

The bill’s side notes clearly state that the mandatory cancellation rule applies retroactively to existing treasury shares without any exemptions.
If this passes the Assembly as-is, it’ll trigger a historic forced cancellation of treasury stock across ~1,660 companies—about three-quarters of the K-equities market.
Watch if this punchy bill clears committee and floor without cuts. Dems plan to fast-track it Sept 1, holding the majority to push it solo, aiming for year-end rollout.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression

AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Jul) – Toyota Industries, OneConnect, Great Eastern, Johns Lyng, NTT DC REIT

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) and NSDL (NSDL IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Johns Lyng (JLG AU), New World Resources (NWC AU).

Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Kirsh/Public Storage Bump And Afforded Due Diligence

Two months ago, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) announced, and subsequently rejected, a A$1.47/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, from Nathan Kirsh’s Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US)
The Kirsh-led consortium has now bumped non-binding terms 14.7% to A$1.65/share, and has been granted six weeks of due diligence.
Nathan Kirsh directly/indirectly holds a 59.47% stake in ASK. Abacus has never closed above A$1.60/share.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Weekly Update (GCI, IGT/BRSL, Greenblatt)

In November 2024, Liberty Broadband (Nasdaq: LBRDA/LBRDK) agreed to be acquired by Charter Communications (CHTR) in an all‑stock deal.
Under the merger agreement, each Liberty Broadband common share will convert into 0.236 share of Charter common stock (plus cash for fractional shares), and each Liberty preferred share will convert to a new Charter preferred share.
As part of the deal, Liberty Broadband will spin off its fully owned Alaska telecom business (GCI, LLC) to Liberty shareholders before the Charter merger closes.

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Jul 13

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Johns Lyng, New World Resources, Oneconnect, Great Eastern, VIOL

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)’s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real.
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Johns Lyng, New World Resources, Oneconnect, Great Eastern, VIOL

I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: PEP’s Scheme Offer for Johns Lyng (JLG AU).
Key updates/news took place on New World Resources (NWC AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), and VIOL (335890 KS).

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Jul 12

Daily Brief Event-Driven: NWD (17 HK): The Strings Attached To Latest Debt Financing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

NWD (17 HK): The Strings Attached To Latest Debt Financing
Johns Lyng (JLG AU): A PEP-Sponsored MBO

NWD (17 HK): The Strings Attached To Latest Debt Financing

This “rescue package” announcement late last month came as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) for New World Development (17 HK), and the ensuing optics were not great.
Media reports are now coming in that NWD is reportedly seeking to sell – or accelerate the sale – of its real estate projects in China.
That makes sense. The refinancing afforded NWD some breathing space. However, to strengthen/bolster its balance sheet, NWD needs to offload assets. Yet pinning down a “fair” valuation will take time.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): A PEP-Sponsored MBO

Johns Lyng (JLG AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) at A$4.00, a 57.5% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.54 (10 June).
The offer is effectively an MBO as the CEO and key executives will rollover their shares. The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals.
The offer is arguably opportunistically timed to capitalise on the FY2025 guidance downgrade in February. However, it is reasonable, given the high uncertainty surrounding the timing of an earnings recovery.

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Jul 11

Daily Brief Event-Driven: OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Offer Gets The Nod From SAMR and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Offer Gets The Nod From SAMR
The HLB Merger Swap Turned into a Messier Trading Setup with Layered Dynamics in Play
New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Tweaks Its Offer Structure and Bumps
China Medical System (867 HK): SGX Secondary Listing Benefits Questionable
CIE Partial Tender Fizzles – No Proration, Bullish Signal
Johns Lyng (JLG AU): PEP’s A$4/Share Offer Looks Light

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Offer Gets The Nod From SAMR

On the 15th May, dual-listed Oneconnect (6638 HK/OFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/digital insurance play, announced a firm Scheme Offer from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder.
Ping An is offering HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. Net cash is, however, ~HK$1.83/share. The price is final.
SAMR has now signed off on the deal, satisfying the pre-condition. We await directions from the Cayman court on timing. I’m estimating late-September payment. Should the deal get up.

The HLB Merger Swap Turned into a Messier Trading Setup with Layered Dynamics in Play

Street’s wrongly assuming only 1% of total shares can exercise appraisal rights, but under Korean law, pre-meeting dissent suffices — today’s vote tells us nothing about actual buyback risk.
Focus is on pre-dissent size — local checks point to 20% of SO, 4x the 40B KRW cap. With stock 40% below appraisal price, merger break risk looks real.
Market’s treating deal break as bearish, deterring some from exercising appraisal despite being in the money. With spread this wide, swap leg offers high-risk, high-reward setup worth watching.

New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Tweaks Its Offer Structure and Bumps

Kinterra increased its New World Resources (NWC AU) offer to A$0.063, which will be increased to A$0.064 and declared unconditional if Kinterra acquires 30% of voting rights by 11 July.
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has five business days to match Kinterra’s offer. While CAML today lowered its FY2025 production guidance, it retains the headroom to return with revised terms.
Trump’s recent copper tariffs support the case for the ongoing bidding war. Crucially, none of the bidders has declared their offer best and final.

China Medical System (867 HK): SGX Secondary Listing Benefits Questionable

On the 24th June 2025, specialty pharmaceutical play China Medical System (867 HK) (CMS) announced a proposed secondary SGX listing, by way of introduction. No equity fundraising will occur.
The SGX has given the green light, with shares expected to commence trading on the 15th July.
This secondary listing is not, it would seem, a pre-cursor to an HKEx withdrawal; but to “enhance the [CMS’s] global visibility, thereby facilitating its international business expansion“.

CIE Partial Tender Fizzles – No Proration, Bullish Signal

CIE’s €24/share partial offer closed with just 9.8% uptake, suggesting investors see more value ahead. No proration required. Treasury shares may support future free float improvements.
The weak subscription outcome aligns with our DCF-based fair value of €31–33/share. Market consensus also points to €32, underscoring material undervaluation and long-term upside potential.
Strong fundamentals, 4.0% yield, and attractive peer comps reinforce the case. Investors chose to stay long, confirming confidence in CIE’s strategic direction, liquidity plans, and re-rating potential.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): PEP’s A$4/Share Offer Looks Light

A month ago, Integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU) fielded a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Aussie fund manager Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
JLG and PEP have now entered into a SID at A$4/share, a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder with 17.64%, is supportive.
A shareholder vote is expected to take place in October, with the transaction potentially wrapping up in November. This may need more gruel.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel
Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer
Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great
Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities.
In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO’s intrinsic value.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).
Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.

Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel

Market focus is now on retroactive impact — existing treasury holdings above 10% must be canceled within a year, flipping earlier expectations that they’d be exempt.
DP’s fast-tracking the bill, targeting a September vote and mid-October go-live, with this Commercial Act tweak topping their legislative priority list.
Excel below shows 230 stocks above the 10% treasury cap, including 35 large-caps — prime candidates for momentum trades as the mandatory buyback burn bill gains steam.

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.
Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer

The precondition for Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s scheme offer from Ping An is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS). The offer price is final.
Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) is hoping that a dire 1Q25 and letters of support will nudge minorities to accept an offer that values OneConnect below net cash.
The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the vote is far from a done deal. Tread carefully.

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) announced a better than expected capital return program following the closing of the Apollo transaction.
Brightstar will pay a $3 special dividend (7/14 ex date) and buy back $500MM of stock.
Brightstar is in a quiet period, but I would expect it to aggressively buy back stock following its earnings report on July 29, 2025.

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Jul 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer
Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory
Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play
[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
Industrivärden’s H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

[Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question.
But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.

Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer

After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition.
Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement. The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory

The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met.
Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.
If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.
Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.

[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More

Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too.
Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.
Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.

Industrivärden’s H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.
The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.
Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker
StubWorld: Haw Par Looking Stretched
Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts
A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?
Alteogen: 2nd Largest Shareholder Raises Stake & Requests Switching Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality

NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker

By Brian Freitas

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

StubWorld: Haw Par Looking Stretched

Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)‘s discount to NAV has narrowed to a multi-year low; and the implied stub and simple ratio (HPAR/UOB) are similarly elevated. Shares are, however, pretty illiquid.
Preceding my comments on Haw Par – and Singapore Land Group (SPLG SP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts

In the setup/unwind tables highlighted in StubWorld: Haw Par Looking Stretched, I see Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) at trading “cheap” to 74.4%-held Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK).
I see DSF at a 51% discount to NAV, around its one-year average. However the simple ratio (DSF/DSB) and implied stub are at multi-year lows.
Separately, DSB is trading at a ~62% discount to NAV – applying its 13.2%-holding in Bank of Chongqing (1963 HK) – around a one-year high. This is, however, a weak stub.

A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?

By Douglas Kim

It has been reported that Woori Financial Group is considering on acquiring all of the remaining shares (21.2%) of Tongyang Life Insurance and delist it, making it a 100% subsidiary.
We believe that there is a high probability (70-80%+) that Woori Financial Group decides to acquire the remaining 21.2% stake in Tongyang Life Insurance held by minority shareholders.
Between cash and stock, we think that Woori Financial is likely to use cash to complete this deal, although the exact amount of market premium remains uncertain.

Alteogen: 2nd Largest Shareholder Raises Stake & Requests Switching Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

On 7 July, it was reported that Hyung In-Woo (second largest shareholder of Alteogen) recently raised his ownership in the company by 0.22% stake (about 39 billion won) last month.
Mr. Hyung has requested to Alteogen to switch the company’s listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI to improve the company’s image and attract greater capital inflow from passive funds.
Alteogen is currently trading at P/E of 37.7x in 2026 and 31.6x in 2027 which are reasonable, considering the company’s significant sales and profit growth in the next three years.

Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality

Capgemini to acquire WNS for $76.50 per share in cash; deal implies a 28% premium to VWAP and aims to create a global leader in AI-powered intelligent operations.
WNS traded at a discount to peers pre-offer; Capgemini expects meaningful synergies (~$8.63/share NPV), justifying the 16x P/E takeout. No termination fee is disclosed publicly.
Interloper risk is modest; deal certainty is high. With a 3.83% gross spread (pre-market) and 8.15% annualized return, the arbitrage setup is attractive barring regulatory or shareholder surprises.

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Jul 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Insignia, New World, ENN Energy, HKBN, Fengxiang
Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 4 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
SPAC Developments, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Strategic Acquisitions
Fengxiang (9977 HK): Composite Doc Out. 24th July H-Class Meeting
Ralliant Spin-off Deep Dive
Weekly Update (IGT/BRSL, FTV, RAL)
Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Insignia, New World, ENN Energy, HKBN, Fengxiang

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads:Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU).

Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays

With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
Last week I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 4 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

By Special Situation Investments

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

SPAC Developments, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Strategic Acquisitions

Yorkville Acquisition (YORKU) is a new SPAC sponsored by Yorkville Advisors, with Trump Media executives on its board.
Banxa (BNXA:V) merger with OSL Group offers a 23% spread; shareholder vote scheduled for August, pending regulatory approval.
Lifeway Foods (LWAY) board overhaul process initiated by major shareholders; management contests legality, potential buyout talks with Danone.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Composite Doc Out. 24th July H-Class Meeting

After the Offeror for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) fulfilled pre-cons on the 3rd July, the Composite was dispatched on the 4th July (but dated 5th July).
The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 24th July. Settlement should be on ore around the 11th August, well ahead of my prior estimate.
Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 4.2%/49.6%. Get involved if illiquid arbs are your bag.

Ralliant Spin-off Deep Dive

Fortive (FTV) spun off Ralliant (RAL) on Monday June 30, 2025. Shareholders received a share of RAL for 3 shares of FTV owned.
Ralliant generated $2.2B of revenue in 2024.
Key segments: 56% of sales in Sensors & Safety (power‑grid monitors, defense, critical-environment sensors) and 44% in Test & Measurement (electronic instrumentation, systems, software).

Weekly Update (IGT/BRSL, FTV, RAL)

Fortive (FTV) spun off 1 share of Ralliant (RAL) for each 3 shares owned.
As such, Ralliant has 113MM shares outstanding and a market cap of $5.1BN and enterprise value of $6.1BN.
The rationale for the spin-off is to separate the “BadCo” (Ralliant) from the “GoodCo” (Fortive RemainCo).

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.

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Jul 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader
Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Talkmed, Jilin Jiutai Bank, Insignia, Silk Logistics, Fengxiang, Nissin, VIOL

Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader

By Nimish Maheshwari

On July 2nd, Gabriel India (GABR IN) announced its strategic restructuring plan, merging key entities to diversify its business and unlock significant shareholder value.
The merger increases promoter shareholding from 55% to 63.5%, with projected EPS accretion of 41%.
This move positions Gabriel India as a multi-product leader, enhancing global OEM partnerships and boosting market presence in key automotive segments.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on Shibaura (6957 JP), risks are slightly higher. <¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.
As expected (at least by me) – I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK).
Re: New World Development (17 HK), this “rescue package” announcement – ~HK$88.2bn – should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Talkmed, Jilin Jiutai Bank, Insignia, Silk Logistics, Fengxiang, Nissin, VIOL