Event-Driven Archives | Page 5 of 186 | Smartkarma

• The Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) Board has responded to SilverCape’s hostile offer by proposing countermeasures ostensibly to protect the interests of minorities.
• The precedent Makino countermeasures against Nidec’s hostile offer were intended to buy time for a higher white-knight offer. In this case, it is being done to facilitate a lower offer.  
• The countermeasures will severely dent SilverCape’s chances of succeeding. Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)’s irrevocables and insiders should be sufficient to pass the shareholder vote to implement the countermeasures. 

• In response to an AFR article, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from EQT (EQT SS) at A$45.00.
• While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT’s history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution. 
• The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk. 

• Chey Tae‑won’s Korea–Japan integration push is fresh tape—unpriced and unconsumed—unlike the exhausted dividend tax story, making it the real policy‑momentum trade to watch.
• Korea’s export model is fading, but a $6T Korea–Japan bloc plus CPTPP buzz offers a fresh policy‑momentum catalyst, with AI/data angles luring incremental global flows.
• Korea–Japan cooperation isn’t a real bloc yet, but it trades like a policy theme—Chey’s 3PRO push makes it a headline‑driven short‑term play ripe for desks.

• As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
• As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.
• All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in BCPG (BCPG TB) (up), and Thai Foods Group (TFG TB) (down).

• ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). 
• The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. 
• The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. 

• Robinhood’s acquisition of WonderFi Technologies at C$0.36/share has a current spread of 14%, with closing expected soon.
• Ambase is litigating against developers over a $150m Equity Put Right, with court opposition due by 11/18/25.
• Plymouth Industrial REIT announced a $22/share acquisition by Makakora Management, with a 30-day go-shop period included.

• After issuing a formal takeover notice on the 30th September, restaurant operator Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ) announced an Official Offer from controlling shareholder Finaccess Restauración on the 14th October. 
• Finaccess is offering NZ$5.05/share in cash for shares not held. Best & final. Finaccess holds 75.02%. Accident Compensation Corporation, with 4.7%, is supportive. The Offer is unconditional.
• The Target Statement is now out, with an independent expert fair value of NZ$5.24-NZ$6.20. The Independent Directors believe the risks associated with remaining as a shareholder outweigh the Offer price.

• The EMC spin-off aims to surface hidden asset value by separating AREC’s high-growth battery-recycling unit, allowing EMC to attract a pure-play electrification multiple and investors clearer sum-of-the-parts visibility.
• The separation positions AREC as an asset-light critical-materials holding company, retaining minority stakes in ReElement, Novusterra, and Royalty Management while enabling EMC to independently pursue commercialization and partnerships.
• EMC gains dedicated access to growth capital and strategic investors, while AREC enhances financial optionality and valuation clarity across its diversified clean-energy and infrastructure holdings.

• In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
• The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn’t truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. 
• The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. 

• Last week, London-based activist Palliser Capital tapped LG Chem (051910 KS) to remedy its NAV market discount. Palliser also said it now holds a little over 1% in LG Chem.
• LG Chem’s large NAV discount is well known. It has been present since ~82%-held LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) was listed in January 2022. 
• An obvious solution is to pare down the LGES stake, and buy back shares. Yet the discount remains as the market views management as being (stubbornly) set in their ways.

• HMC buyback ~₩0.8–1.0tn (~1.5% SO). Street focus is ord/pref split, with prefs at ~25% discount. Mgmt urgency: lift equity value as K‑market rallies.
• Narrowing the pref gap seen as the cleanest lever—shareholder‑friendly signal, draws real money/offshore flows, de‑risks policy optics—so locals expect the first buyback leg skewed to prefs.
• Street sees HMC aiming mid‑teens pref discount via year‑end pref‑heavy buyback and dividend tax reform. Catalysts make narrowing trend look achievable.

• Comcast’s planned spin-off of Versant Media creates two sharper investment profiles – broadband and infrastructure (Comcast ex-Versant) versus content and networks (Versant) – enabling clearer strategic focus and capital discipline.
• Post-Spin, Comcast retains $117B revenue and 30% margins, while Versant will have $7B media portfolio with 40% EBITDA margins.
• Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation assigns 6.0× to Comcast and 8.4× to Versant, implying combined equity value of $146.5B, or $39 per share.

• Honeywell will complete the tax-free spin-off of its Advanced Materials division as Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. (Nasdaq: SOLS) on October 30, 2025.
• We value HON(ex-SOLS) at $228/share on a SOTP basis. We value Solstice at $60/share based on 10.9× FY2026E EBITDA of $1.0B, implying ~31% upside to the when-issued price of $45.75
• SOLS has greater upside potential at current levels. Given its smaller market capitalization, index rebalancing flows post-listing could trigger near-term technical selling pressure, which may provide even better entry point.

I had a chance to talk to the management team from High Arctic Overseas this week, and I came away encouraged.

The stock is trading at a negative enterprise value, but we are seeing signs of stability in the business and a potential upward inflection.

The management team is entrepreneurial and working to cut its cash burn down to zero. 

• Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye.
• The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the face tariffs. This is somewhat surprising to me.
• This week was relatively quiet on the open-recommendations front, but I expect the news flow to pick up in the coming weeks as earnings season gets underway

• De Beers sale shows competitive tension: Endiama bid vs Botswana match rights; potential $2.5–4bn proceeds improve Anglo’s simplification and special-dividend optics.
• Votes: circular early/mid-Nov; same-day early-Dec. Teck-B 66⅔% remains higher-beta; interloper low pre-vote, very low post-vote.
• Spread: AAL 2,832p; TECK C$58.50; GBPCAD 1.86685 → implied TECK C$70.32; ~16.7% discount (~20.1% upside). Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged.

• EU clearance confirmed 27 Oct 2025; seven of ten jurisdictions approved. Remaining reviews in Brazil, Mexico, and China progress. Management now targets Q1 2026 completion, extending earlier Q4 2025 timeline.
• Implied offer value 85.8 p (AXL $6.49; GBP/USD 1.3313) vs DWL 83 p yields 3.4 % spread, or ~7–10 % annualised return under the revised Q1 2026 closing guidance.
• Funding and shareholder approvals complete; deal risk remains low and primarily timing-related. Residual focus on SAMR clearance and FX/AXL volatility driving daily implied consideration.

• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
• The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK). 

• Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
• There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
• Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Seres Group (601127 CH) and Pony AI (PONY US) H Share listings.
• Event-Driven developments: Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Minmetals Land (230 HK), Larvotto Resources (LRV AU). 

• Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.
• Timing & Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.
• Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC’s announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.

• Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 181.05m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$829m at a valuation of US$7.95bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 382-402/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day two weeks ago as markets fell sharply. About two-thirds that this past week as indices rebounded. High-div SOEs seeing buying demand.
• The recommended name was short Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK). The stock was -4.9% over two weeks, but the H outperformed its A by 0.55%.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• The last two weeks have seen “Beautiful Skew” behave badly across the ten trading days. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) is trading too wide for its div into year-end.
• The long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) two weeks ago saw the H-share rise 6.8% from the next day through Friday, and the H OUTperformed its A by 2.62%.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• KeePer Technical Laboratory (6036 JP) has switched its allegiance from the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO by agreeing to accept the higher Effissimo offer. 
• KeePer’s change of heart sets a huge precedent and signals that irrevocables are unenforceable and fiduciary duty outweighs a promise to tender.
• Nevertheless, the outcome is still not set in stone. Effissimo’s chances of success have increased, but the MBO still retains a long-shot chance of success.

• Palliser discloxes stake in LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. 
• The family  increased their bid for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.
• First Pacific Co (142 HK) appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.

• I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) and Minmetals Land (230 HK).
• Key updates/news took place on: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Joy City Property (207 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP).

• Gov’t likely to ease CVC rules; street chatter sees high odds. Tied to KRW150tn Growth Fund push, with corporates lobbying—cleanest path to juice capital flow.
• Holdcos at center of CVC‑easing; scrapping disclosure rule unlocks external capital. Street read: fast flip from control towers to re‑rating plays as real investment shops with growth portfolios.
• KFTC flags 177 holdcos, 14 with CVCs (13 listed). Street sees momentum flows hitting these 13 names; play via basket/overweight, with Doosan, Hyosung, LX as preferred plays.

• On the 31sr July, Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.
• Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.
• The Scheme Document’s now out, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable”. It probably is.

• Joy City Property (207 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback by way of a scheme at HK$0.62 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 17 November. 
• While the offer implies a P/B of 0.29x, it is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
• Nevertheless, there remains vote risk and caution is warranted. At the current price and for a 4 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 8.8%/103.6%. 

• When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard. 
• But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
• Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.

• Consumer electronics play IDT International (167 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don’t expect your usual Offer to unfold. 
• On the 2nd October, IDT announced that Tiger Energy Technology, which holds 72.1% of share out, has been placed into receivership. Tiger Energy is 50% owned by Tiger Chen (ED).
• IDT was recently suspended for 581 days after failing to publish its annual results. Upon resumption of trading, predicated on a re-organisation, the major shareholder promptly exited. Without telling anyone. 

• The MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) has increased by 42.4% from JPY2,050 to JPY2,919 per share. The revised offer represents a P/B of 1.01x.
• While Effissimo has publicly built a 13.25% ownership stake, behind the scenes, Murakami agitated for a bump by suggesting that he would help fund the increase in the consideration.
• The Ogawas rebuffed Murakami’s funding but secured his verbal agreement to tender. While Effissimo’s intentions remain unknown, it is likely to support the revised offer. 

• Minmetals Land (230 HK) has disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from China Minmetals at HK$1.00 per share, a 104.1% premium to the last close price of HK$0.49.
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and the headcount test. The offer is final. 
• No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium.

• After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals. 
• The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
• Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026. 

• In First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad’s IPO Price Firmed, I discussed Maynilad’s upcoming IPO, a company controlled by MPIC, which in turn, is controlled by First Pacific Co (142 HK).
• Since that note, I have tracked down Maynilad’s elusive prospectus.
• This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday’s note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh insight as opposed to a boomerang.

• Prosus’s €4.1bn all-cash acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com is now unconditional, with 98.19% ownership secured. Shares will delist from Euronext Amsterdam on 17 November ahead of statutory squeeze-out.
• Early arbitrage entrants earned roughly 9.3% annualized return, late entrants about 3.6%. With settlement complete, the residual spread has closed, leaving no remaining event-driven opportunity.
• The transaction cements Prosus as Europe’s largest food delivery platform and the world’s fourth largest globally, following Meituan, DoorDash, and Uber, under CEO Fabricio Bloisi’s expansion strategy.

• NAV rose 8% YTD to SEK 179 bn; Industrivärden C trades at a tight 4.5% discount.
• Concentrated, high-quality portfolio: Sandvik + Volvo ≈ 60% NAV; ultra-low 0.07% costs. Solid balance sheet (A+/Stable, 3% leverage) but limited near-term upside after discount compression. 
• Tactically, short-bias positioning (short holdco / long asset basket) is attractive near a 3–6% discount, while a renewed 8–10% gap would again justify a reversal into the classic long-holdco trade.

• Palliser Capital started to go activist on LG Chem.  According to Palliser Capital, LG Chem’s share price is trading at a 74% discount to its NAV.
• Palliser Capital proposed improving the composition of the board of directors, restructuring the executive compensation system to align with shareholder interests, and higher share buybacks. 
• Our updated NAV analysis of LG Chem suggests implied price of 613,438 won per share, which represents a 57% higher levels than current levels.

• Market sniffing policy push; low-float names flagged as junk risk with skewed control. Desks circling, Palliser hit early—LG Chem trade popped, timing spot on.
• Trade setup: screen >₩1tn caps with low float, parent stakes 60–80%. Policy push likely forces stake cuts, driving float higher and squeezing NAV discounts—LG Chem shows the play.
• Screening >₩1tn caps flags 11 names: parents hold 60–80%. All potential stake-sale plays to boost float, squeeze NAV discount.

• First Pacific Co (142 HK)‘s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.
• The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. 
• First Pac’s NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.

• There is a good amount of froth in the market.
• The “Fear & Greed Index” has slipped into “Extreme Fear” which is usually a good contra-indicator.
• For what it’s worth, I’m still finding plenty of ideas that look attractive from a “bottom up” perspective.

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. Its first set of lockups expired in April 2025. The next one is due soon.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• Modest sweetener, same outcome: Inocsa raises its GCO offer to €49.75 (+€0.75/share) after strong sector performance, ensuring fairness optics but still below intrinsic value and peer valuations.
• Timeline drift, limited spread: Seven-month process extended by repeated dividend-driven adjustments; expected settlement in early Jan-2026, offering ~1% gross spread and ~4.9% annualized return for arbitrageurs.
• Delisting inevitable: With 62% control and minimal regulatory risk, Inocsa’s bid remains near-certain; minority shareholders face diminishing upside and liquidity risk once Catalana Occidente exits the exchange.

• Offer now successful at 67.55%; Additional Acceptance Period runs 16–29 Oct. Shares at CHF 134.6 versus CHF 135offer leave minimal upside.
• Focus shifts to elections/settlement mechanics: tender elections, UBXNE line, EGM approvals, and remaining clearances. Expect delisting then squeeze-out if thresholds reached; execution risk dominates spread.
• Risk-Arb stance: tender in; keep sizing conservative. Residual carry ~1–2% annualized depending on settlement timing; liquidity remains good but may tighten as AAP progresses.

• Telefónica evaluating 1&1 takeover; tight float (UI 80.8%, Rentrop 4.5%). Our synergy DCF supports €26–€30/sh takeout (sweet spot €28–€29). Downside €19–€20; October 21, €21.80.
• Probability-Weighted fair value: €23.83/sh (45% at €28.5, 55% at €20.0). Phase-II timeline 9–12 months; PW IRR +12.6% (9m) to +9.3% (12m), ex-fees/hedging.
• Hedge long 1U1 with EU telco basket or DAX; O2 Deutschland short impractical (TEF owns ~96.85%). Key risks: heavy remedies, execution slippage, deal pivot to cooperation-only.

• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
• The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
• Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU). 

• Back on the 18th August, Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, announced a A$0.88/share non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.
• That was a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms were firmed, shareholders would also be afforded a partial scrip option.
• Apiam and Adamantem have now firmed terms at A$0.87/share, including a permitted fully franked dividend up to A$0.10/share. Mix & match options available, including 100% scrip.

• Back on the 20th August, Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, entered into a Scheme with Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both are TPG entities.
• TPG offered A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close, including a A$0.09/share fully franked dividend. 38.5% of shareholders were supportive. TPG held a call option for 19.9% of shares out.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 21st November, and expected implementation on the 9th December. The IE (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable”. Clean deal.

• The Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) IE considers TPG Inc (TPG US)’s A$2.155 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$1.93 to A$2.27 valuation range.
• The offer is conditional on shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk as the majority of substantial shareholders are supportive.   
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%/5.1%.

• Bel Fuse’s Class A and B shares have a price gap, with BELFB trading 18% above BELFA, suggesting potential arbitrage.
• Mayne Pharma’s court ruling favors MYX in the A$7.40/share takeover by Cosette, pending FIRB approval by October 31.
• STAAR Surgical’s Q3 sales rose 7% YoY, driven by China demand recovery, amid proxy advisory opposition to Alcon’s offer.

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) (CRB) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its PE investor is set to expire soon.
• China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• Trade call: Long the €500MM 2029s (XS2449928543) to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss. Capture +5bps, and any signalling premium from a flagship renewable issuer missing own operations emissions
• High miss risk: SPT 1 likely misses by >50%, while SPT 2 and SPT 3 look on track versus 2025 target thresholds.
• Catalyst path: Measurement at Dec 31st, 2025, publication and assurance any date before Apr 29th, 2026. Step-up date fixes uplift from the next period after Jun 2026.

• Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
• They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
• It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme. 

• SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer. 
• The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
• The situation shares similarities with Soft99’s contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. 

• Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
• Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
• Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.

• SK Group plans to restructure its renewable energy businesses that could result in asset sales of more than 1 trillion won. 
• SK Group is taking on a major restructuring of its renewable energy businesses, including  including fuel cells, energy storage systems (ESS), and solar/wind power generation facilities. 
• A consensus has been forming in the local media regarding Chairman Chey’s expected divorce payment to his wife Roh So-young to be about 400 billion won to 700 billion won.

• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) has disclosed a non-binding proposal from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) at 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares.
• The offer is unattractive as the current implied offer value is 20% below the last close price and undervalues the core Hillgrove Mine based on the DFS’s NPV analysis.
• USAC’s share price meteoric rise YTD amplifies the risk of the all-scrip offer. The Board should push for better terms or outright reject the NBIO. 

• €4 bn divestiture cuts Kering’s net debt to ~2× EBITDA, marking a decisive deleveraging under new CEO Luca de Meo.
• Balance-Sheet reset buys time for Gucci’s creative relaunch; early fashion-week feedback encouraging.
• We see moderate upside to €333–€350/share if execution sustains cost control and brand momentum.

• A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming. 
• Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
• That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover. 

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 

• Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
• There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
• Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I flagged the possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects, as a means towards securing a supply of critical minerals. 
• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), an explorer/evaluator/developer of gold and antimony, has now announced a NBIO from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) @ A$1.40/share, a 87.67% premium to undisturbed.
• USAC has also declared a 10% holding.  An independent board committee is assessing the approach. Due diligence has not yet been granted. That should be forthcoming.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: JST Group (6687 HK) and FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPOs; Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU),Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). 

• The BBVA-Sabadell offer failed with <30% acceptance, as institutional and retail shareholders decisively rejected the all-stock, no-premium structure.
• Our long SAB / short BBVA trade worked tactically near expiry, as the market rewarded standalone value and capital flexibility.
• The outcome reinforces that hostile, low-premium, all-share deals rarely succeed in Europe — governance, sentiment, and structure matter as much as price.

• Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.
• Miss risk: F&I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.
• Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.