TMT/Internet Archives | Page 30 of 122 | Smartkarma

• On March 1, ex Intel CEO Craig Barrett posted a rebuttal of his former board members opinion piece on the subject of the company’s future
• He claims that Intel is back, the company must not be broken up, the board should be fired and Mr. Gelsinger should be rehired to finish the job he started
• Meanwhile, Intel has put its Ohio fab on hold until the end of the decade, its German fab on hold for two years, both damning indictments of Mr Gelsinger’s strategy

• TSMC plans to invest $100 billion in the US to build three new fabs, two new advanced packaging facilities and establish an R&D centre, all in Arizona
• During the press conference at the White House, Mr Wei received fulsome praise from President Trump and was careful to thank him for his vision and support on multiple occasions
• The announcement lacked key details such as construction timelines and which process technologies would be deployed but it would still appear to have done the trick, at least for now.

• On March 4th, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) announced that the company will further increase its investment up to $100 billion in the US.
• The restructured case of Intel Corp (INTC US) has elicited different opinions, but a few companies may consider trying out Intel Foundry Service.
• Currently, we find these developments acceptable, although we view them as the result of political interference, and time will tell.

• TSMC’s Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.
• Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News 

• TSMC: +18.5% Premium; Wait for Lower Premium Before Going Long
• ASE: +0.2% Premium; Near-Parity Premium is Opportunity to Long the Spread
• ChipMOS: -3% Discount; Rare Discount is Opportunity to Long the Spread

• Kospi records one of its five largest declines of the past year on Friday.
• Volatility responded sharply to the accelerating selloff, closely tracking the market’s downward momentum.
• With the sharp decline and surge in implied volatility, hedging considerations are explored.

• Rakuten is utilizing AI and O-RAN to lower telecom costs and broaden its global footprint in the industry, focusing on efficiency and expansion.
• IBM has launched Granite 3.2, an advanced AI platform that incorporates on-demand reasoning and vision-language model to bolster its AI capabilities, fostering innovation in the field of artificial intelligence.
• The GSMA has revealed the four key pillars that will shape the future of 5G technology at MWC 2025, highlighting the importance of advancements in connectivity for the development of mobile networks.

• In this edition: • KPN | plans to increase broadband line tariffs by 3.3% on 1 July 2025 • Shell | believed to be exploring sale of Chemical business in Europe and the USA • InPost | completes refinancing and increases financial flexibility • TKH Group | next phase of focus and optimization – focus on Automation and Electrification, implying divestment of Digitalization • PostNL | EUR 10m earmarked for deployment of APMs

• Baidu’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results reveal a company navigating both challenges and opportunities, driven by its ongoing transformation into an AI-centric entity.
• The reported total revenues for the fourth quarter amounted to RMB 34.1 billion, a 2% decrease year-over-year, while full-year revenues were down by 1%, at RMB 133.1 billion.
• Despite these slight declines, Baidu Core’s revenue performance was stable, increasing by 1% for both the fourth quarter and full year.

• With the averaging period for the April rebalance commencing today, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
• Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.65-1x ADV to buy in the adds and between 0.5-1.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
• The big rally has taken Gemvax & Kael into inclusion zone while underperformance leads to ISC Co and Techwing dropping out of inclusion zone.

• Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK , “Plover Bay”) with a market cap of approximately USD 739 million, experienced another stellar year with its FY24A annual results, showcasing a notable 24% revenue increase, exceeding the USD 100 million threshold (also known as the “valley of death ”) to reach USD 117 million, while also realizing a 36% YoY growth in net profit, amounting to USD 38 million.
• This success is complemented by strategic partnerships, and ongoing innovation.
• With deepening collaborations, an expanding product line-up, and an emphasis on recurring revenues, Plover Bay is well-positioned for sustained growth in 2025 and beyond.

• Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preliminary non-binding privatisation offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 (US$7.98 per ADS), a 72.33% premium to the undisturbed price.
• Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading ranges. 
• If a binding proposal materialises, the offer price will not be increased. A high minority participation rate could be an issue for the vote.  

• Dual-Listed OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
• Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final. 
• What now? Back in OneConnect’s boards’ court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.

• Arista Networks’ results for the fourth quarter of 2024 reflect significant strides and some challenges in various segments.
• The company reported revenue of $1.93 billion for the quarter, contributing to an annual growth of approximately 19.5%, surpassing its initial forecast of 10-12% amidst robust AI-related demand.
• This performance helped achieve a non-GAAP operating margin of 47.5%, marking a solid financial standing.

• We Doctor’s business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.
• Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.
• We Doctor’s Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.

• HP plans to cut 2,000 jobs and shift 90% of its manufacturing from China to North America by the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Hushan successfully transforms car door handles into profitable aftermarket products, carving out a niche in the market.
• IBM closes its research facility in China and lays off 1,800 employees, while companies like Jabil, Aequs, and Tata export Indian-made Apple components to China and Vietnam.

• Shift4 Payments Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, setting records across several key performance indicators.
• The company announced a 49% year-over-year increase in end-to-end payment volumes to $47.9 billion and a 50% rise in gross revenue less network fees, amounting to $405 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased by 51% to $205.9 million, while adjusted free cash flow saw a significant rise of 78% to $134 million.

• Cadence Design Systems Inc. reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with notable achievements in revenue and operating margins.
• The year concluded with a record backlog of $6.8 billion, reflecting heightened demand for Cadence’s AI-driven chip-to-systems portfolio and the expanded application of its AI solutions in semiconductor innovation.
• The company observed exceptional momentum in its partnerships, including with NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Marvell, highlighting increased adoption of its AI-powered products such as Cadence Cerebrus, SimAI, and Allegro X AI.

• Put trading as a percentage of total volume continues to increase and coupled with a shift in the skew highlights changing sentiment.
• Volatile price action this week with Wednesday and Friday both moving ~3.50%.
• Implied and historic volatilities were all up on the week and seasonal setup over next two weeks not favorble. 

• Pentamaster International (1665 HK)‘s Scheme overwhelmingly gets up after a wild week of trading.
• After touching an intra-day low of HK$0.78/share on the 25th Feb – 28% adrift of the HK$1.00/share terms – shares closed at HK$0.97/share prior the results of the Scheme Meeting. 
• 58.2% of disinterested shareholders opted to vote. Just 0.5% of those shareholders present voted against the Scheme; or just 0.29% of total disinterested shareholders. Not even close.

• Broad based weakness, less than ½ of optionable stocks were up on the week with the average size of losses larger than average size of gains.
• Total single stock Put option volume the highest in the past 4 months pushing the Put/Call ratio to a local extreme. 
• Laggards from the rally holding on, rally leaders broadly weak.

• HSI down 1.64% on the week but under the hood volatility was percolating with a larger weekly range and 2 daily moves > 3%.
• Volatilities rise across the board and shift in the skew favoring Puts.
• Trading dynamics between spot and implied vol continue to evolve and seasonal setup over the next two weeks not favourable for HSI.

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART’s reported H1 FY25 results are messy, with a number of non-cash items including media capital spend distorting reported numbers.
• On an adjusted basis revenue growth was 11%, with Airtasker marketplace growth closer to 15%.

• Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) reported FY24 revenues/profits up 23.9%/35.4% YoY. H2 FY24 revenue/profit growth was steady at 20%/20% YoY.
• On the conference call, the company did not provide explicit guidance for FY25 but mentioned that growth has been healthy for the six weeks of FY25 and will continue. 
• Trading at 19x/16.4x FY24/25e (assuming 20% growth and flat margins), with a dividend yield of 5.8% and 10% of the market cap in net cash, the stock is worth exploring.

• CSI announced the changes for the March rebalance after market close on 28 February and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 March.
• As expected, Shenzhen Bluetrum Technology (688332 CH) will be added to the index while JoulWatt Technology Co (688141 CH) will be deleted.
• Shenzhen Bluetrum Technology (688332 CH) outperformed JoulWatt Technology Co (688141 CH) in the last quarter of 2024 and there has been a reversal of fortunes this calendar year.

• Several US tariffs are expected in March, but their implementation remains uncertain and is part of ongoing negotiations.
• Central banks in India, Japan, and the US will announce rate decisions in March, with India possibly cutting rates by 0.25%.
• Major HK stocks are set to announce earnings in March, and index changes will occur in the S&P 500, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, and HSCEI indices.

• For the month of February 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$5bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~55%, with a year-to-date average also of 56%. 
• The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .

• Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.
• Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.
• HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular series include: Mobvista (1860 HK), Xtep International (1368 HK), Onewo (2602 HK), and Bonny International Holding (1906 HK).

• During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
• Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
• Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.

• Last night, the S&P announced that with the deletion of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) from the S&P Midcap 400, Entegris Inc (ENTG US) would replace it.
• Entegris is a company providing Materials Solutions and Purity Solutions to the semiconductor industry (they sell to circuit/memory cos, SPE mfrs, gas/chem cos, wafer growers, etc.
• Because of how this company is being added, it is a bit interesting. It will be effective Wednesday 5 March at the close with US$1.2bn to buy.

• In our last insight covering  China Mobile (941 HK) we said the stock was overbought. It made a sharp pullback last week that may turn into a good BUY opportunity.
• Support levels to buy range from 79.1 to 76.4, assuming this pullback is a buy-the-dip scenario, something we will discuss in this insight.
• If the stock resumes its rally, the next WEEKLY profit targets will be between 82.64 and 84.4.

• Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
• They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
• They’re not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let’s see

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp
• In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).
• Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).

• Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
• Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy & the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
• Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix & Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• RaaS Research Group interviewed CEO Michael Ivanchenko post the H1 FY25 results.

• Q1-3 FY3/25 results underlined Restar’s positive sales growth profile (+11.2% YoY) driven by its roll-up M&A strategy, a strong demand environment for cameras and PC-related products in consumer products, and smartphone demand driving EMS activity YoY.
• However, headwinds persist in the form of continued delay in demand recovery from the Industrial sector, a sales mix lowering gross margin, and negative impact from a strengthening Japanese yen.
• We have not seen concrete evidence of cost savings from post-merger integration activities. 

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has reported H1 FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3m, up 17% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 10% ahead of our forecast.
• Reported EBITDA was $2.1m, up 9% on the pcp.

• We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
• We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
• The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  

• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• The methodology for constituent selection for this index was revised yesterday. These revisions will influence the ADDs/DELs for the March 2025 review which is to be announced soon.
• In this insight, we have presented our updated expectations for the new methodology.

• CEO is clearly saying that demand is growing faster than expected and has visibility into 2025-26 revenues (we have a fairly good line of sight of investment in data centers)
• Models are getting better and using up to 100x more computing power (ie chain of thought and reinforcement learning). The AI market is today Consumer, tomorrow Agentic, later on Physical.  
• The stock is not expensive at 30x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27 EPS. Get over it.

• According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
• My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
• I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?

• Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.
• SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.
• China’s tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.

• Quick Commerce offers infinite TAM with rapid metro adoption, but requires endless investment in faster delivery times to remain competitive.
• Delivery partners bear the operational burden, working long hours for modest pay while tech stacks across competitors remain largely similar.
• Despite investor excitement, QC margins remain elusive due to high competition, homogeneous offerings, and limited pricing power compared to food delivery.

• In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in January and February 2025.
• There were 37 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 2.3% of outstanding shares.
• Some of the notable share buybacks by Korean companies in the past two months include Samsung Electronics, Celltrion, Hyundai Mobis, and INFOvine.

• Dassault Systèmes has agreed to acquire Contentserv, a provider of AI-driven product information management platforms, for EUR220m, enhancing Centric’s PLM offerings for consumer goods industries.   
• Centric aims to reach EUR500m in revenue by 2028, with goals of becoming a EUR1bn brand. Contentserv is expected to boost Centric’s revenue by 25%, contributing to its growth plans.  
• We deem the integration of Contentserv into Centric will occur gradually. Additionally, Centric will benefit from 3D Universes, an AI-based environment designed to leverage legacy 3D designs and PLM data.

• Cognex is a leader in machine vision, providing ruggedized cameras and software for automation in manufacturing and logistics environments
• Cognex’s products fall into four categories: Guide, Gauge, Inspect, and ID
• ID includes Dataman products for reading barcodes and optical character recognition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• ACMR is a wafer fabrication equipment company that sells tools to semiconductor fabrication plants
• The company operates in a sector dominated by oligopolies with strong competitive advantages
• The symbiotic relationship between FABS and WFE makers creates barriers to entry for new competitors, providing long-term stability for the industry and companies like ACMR.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• This Insight analyses Tencent (700 HK)tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
• These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Diagonal call spreads are popular, many self-financing (0% premium). This strategy can play the 18 March earnings date.
• Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders see limits to the upside. The most bullish trade suggests a peak of up to 710 HKD by the end of March.

• The company filed the required SEC filings right on the deadline of 25 February 2025, thus has avoided a Nasdaq delisting and consequently a deletion from s&p500 and other indices.
• The security continues to be a contender for Nasdaq-100 inclusion at the December 2025 annual review.
• The stock is up ~21.7% pre-market following the SEC filings.

• iPhone 16e starting at $599, positioned as entry level but not bare bones
• Apple targeting customers who hold onto phones for a long time with best battery life in any iPhone
• Modem C1 upgrade seen as key contributor to improved battery life, but was not highlighted in launch, raising questions about performance quality

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Tencent (700 HK) stock options expiring on Thursday, February 27, show a concentration of approximately 40,000 open contracts at the 500 strike price, currently at the money.
• The open interest at the 500 strike may increase volatility and trading activity near expiry if the stock price hovers around 500, possibly leading to amplified intraday price swings.
• At the last monthly expiry in January the stock experienced intraday price swings of 2.5%.

• Lite On Signals for Continued Strength in Cloud/AIOT Ahead of Upcoming Nvidia Results
• Lite On’s 1Q25E Outlook Was Positive and Did Not Indicate A Near-Term Slowdown
• Industry Take-Aways — Still No Signs of Acceleration on PC/Consumer… However Signals Cloud/AIoT Demand Healthy

• Trump administration wants TSMC to partner with Intel to strengthen US ties, potentially impacting global server market.
• WNC to unveil new 5G and AI connectivity solutions at MWC 2025 Barcelona, boosting industry innovation and technology.
• Vivo aims for 30% sales growth in Taiwan by 2025 with V50 launch, while Tata plans to sign 10 MoUs in semiconductor sector.

• Nvidia has been the unrivaled darling of the AI boom, establishing itself as a portfolio must-have, and is now the second-most valuable company in the world. 
• Wafer-Thin AI chips are the company’s biggest earnings driver, but Nvidia is growing in other high-margin segments too, including software, gaming, and automotive.
• Here’s what makes this company important, what to expect next from the tech giant, and – most interestingly – what Nvidia’s stock is really worth.

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will release its earnings at the end of today’s US session. This insight offers a quick view of possible support and resistance for derivatives traders.
• The stock is currently mildly oversold, aroud 50% probability of reversal according to our quantitative PRICE model and about 78% probability of reversal according to our quantitative TIME model.
• WEEKLY TACTICAL TARGETS: buy below 125 (with room to go to 92 if the earnings are disappointing) and sell above 147 (the limit should be 161).

• A high hurdle for OP in Q1 – Q1 FY9/25 results showed normalisation of OP growth as the one-off impact from a large order for AD (autonomous driving) / ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems came off compared to Q1 FY9/24.
• As a result, Toyo Corporation reported an operating loss, normalising to more ordinary performance for Q1 when OP tends to be weak due to seasonality.
• Notwithstanding the seasonal loss, the Q1 FY9/25 results were in line with the company’s initial plan. 

• Singapore’s Mid-to-Small Cap group averaged S$40 million daily trading turnover, with Technology stocks contributing 35% over 8 weeks.
• UMS, CSE Global, and Valuetronics ranked among the top 10 Mid-to-Small Cap stocks with highest net institutional inflow.
• PC Partner Group anticipates FY24 net profit of at least HK$250 million, up from HK$60 million in FY23.

• Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
• Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
• There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

• Back on the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
• The Offer Price was HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close, but arguably more like a 61% premium to undisturbed. 
• The Court Meeting is the 28th February. Shares are down 15%+ in recent days. On no news.  Not a great look. 

• Yesterday morning, Prosus announced the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway for $4.3bn.
• Naspers and Prosus sold off sharply on the news, ending the day down 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively.
• Naspers’ discount widened by 2.8 percentage points to 44.2% and Prosus’ discount widened by 3.1 percentage points to 39.8%.

• Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China’s Access to Chip Technology — Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment
• Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes… 

• Today, investors received shares in the new SanDisk spin-off.

• Shares are currently slightly up due to buying pressure ahead of the stock being added to the S&P 600 index effective tomorrow.

• SanDisk is trading at 1.1x revenue which is a reasonable valuation (Xioxia, Sandisk’s JV partner, trades at 1.3x LTM revenue).

• Dozn is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in March 2025. The company plans to offer 2.5 million shares in this IPO.
• The IPO price range is from 10,250 won to 12,500 won per share and the offering amount ranges from 26.2 billion won to 31.2 billion won.
• Founded in 2017, Dozn is emerging as a prominent business-to-business (B2B) digital solution service provider in Korea.

• Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.
• Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  
• We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.

• The Nasdaq-100 INDEX started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.
• The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside…
• A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.

• Twilio Inc. presented a compelling performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing its evolution and strategic progress.
• The company reported $1.195 billion in revenue, marking an 11% increase year-over-year, achieving consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.
• This quarter was particularly notable as it was Twilio’s first to achieve GAAP operating profitability, ahead of its initial target, underscoring the firm’s focus on balanced growth and profitability.

• NetEase reported C4Q24 rev., GAAP op. profit and GAAP net inc. in line/3.9%/27% vs. our est., and in line/9.3%/27% vs. cons. 
• We see NetEase entering a new phase of product-driven revenue growth, driven by rebounding mobile and accelerating PC game growth;
• We raise TP to US$122 and keep NTES as our TOP PICK in gaming sector.

• Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
• The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
• This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.

• The vote on Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 for Pentamaster International (1665 HK) is on 28 February. Over the last two days, the gross spread has increased to 8.7%.
• There are valid arguments for the vote to pass or fail. Despite the IFA’s assertions that the offer is fair and reasonable, it is not and will leave minorities short-changed. 
• While there is no visible opposition, the share price indicates that an activist could have secured a blocking stake (3.34% of shares, which does not require HKEx disclosure). 

• With the review cutoff done, there could be two changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March.
• Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and ZTE Corp H (763 HK) are expected to replace China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) and China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK). 
• ZTE Corp H (763 HK) has broken out to new highs (possibly on short covering) while China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK) continues to sell off.

• With the review cutoff done, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs in March.
• Cambricon Technologies, Guotai Junan Securities and China United Network could replace Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, CGN Power and Luzhou Laojiao in the ETFs.
• Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is expected to be added to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.

• TSMC: +17.2% Premium; Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long
• UMC: -1.9% Discount; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
• ASE: -0.6% Discount; Discount is Opportunity to Long the Spread

• Global EV sales in 2024 were strong, with forecasts for 2025 looking promising as well, showcasing the growth of the electric vehicle market.
• Asus and Gigabyte secure large AI server orders from Nvidia, highlighting efforts to boost US manufacturing and strengthen partnerships in the tech industry.
• iPhone 16e price hints at a move away from the budget market, indicating a potential shift in Apple’s pricing strategy for future phone releases.

• Informatica Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, reflecting a period of significant transition and mixed performance.
• The company is deeply engaged in its strategic shift towards a cloud-only, consumption-driven business model, which presents both opportunities and challenges.
• On the positive side, Informatica has achieved notable progress with its cloud subscription business.

• This Australian/UK Company designs and manufactures proprietary thin, flat supercapacitors and energy management systems.
• These have very high-power density and high energy storage capacity in a space-efficient prismatic package.
• Superconductors are used in portable and small-scale electronic devices, as well as in larger applications such as automotive and renewable energy. 

• Soluna recently announced two significant deals to grow its business.
• The first deal is an expansion of its partnership with Bit Digital (BTBT), while the second deal is a successful exit of Project Kati from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) planning phase.
• On February 18, Soluna announced that it had successfully exited the ERCOT planning phase for its Project Kati, which is expected to unlock up to 166 MW of new Bitcoin hosting and AI JV opportunities.

• SaverOne continues to expand internationally and has had moderate success launching pilots in the EU market.
• A key for the company in 2025 will be converting many pilots into full commercial deployments and substantially increasing its installed base.
• We have a better estimate of the total outstanding shares (roughly 675 million) as a result of the company’s latest registration statement.

• This Insight analyses Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
• These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Strategies are mostly bullish, and exclusively long volatility despite implied volatility in its 98th percentile.
• Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders expect the rally, driven by its own momentum, to peak. One trade suggests a ceiling of 70 by mid-year. 

• In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
• SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
• Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% – 99% in 2024.

• In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Applied Materials demonstrated strong performance, achieving record revenue levels that surpassed previous highs.
• The company announced that advanced semiconductors are a significant driver of this growth, supported by trends in technology such as artificial intelligence (AI), which are reshaping the global economy.
• AI, identified as a major transformative technology, has supported approximately a 20% year-over-year growth in global semiconductor sales in 2024, with projections suggesting this market could exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

• Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.
• Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.
• Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.

• China announced game approval for the February batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Of the companies that we are monitoring, Netease, Zengame got one approval each.

• CyberArk’s 2024 financial performance and strategic initiatives demonstrate a mix of robust growth and cautious optimism for the future.
• The company achieved significant milestones, notably surpassing $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and total revenue for the first time.
• This growth was fueled in part by successful integration and performance of recent acquisitions, Venafi and Zilla Security, which expanded CyberArk’s footprint in the identity security market.

• Palo Alto Networks’ performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 highlights both ongoing strengths and emerging challenges intrinsic to its market position and operating landscape.
• The company reported total revenue of $2.26 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, outperforming its top-line expectations.
• This growth was evenly distributed across multiple sectors, with particular strength in subscription services, which saw a 20% rise, underscoring the firm’s robust service-driven revenue stream.

• Waystar Holding, a provider of mission-critical cloud software for healthcare organizations, priced its public offering of 20M shares of common stock.
• Key selling stockholders, including EQT, CPPIB and Bain Capital offered 20M shares at $40.00 per share and cut their Waystar Holding stakes.  
• Waystar Holding will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the shares by the selling stockholders. The company reported revenue growth of ~19% in FY24.  

• Datadog reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, revealing a strong performance characterized by a 25% year-over-year revenue increase to $738 million, surpassing the high end of its guidance range.
• The company highlighted robust growth in customer adoption, reporting a rise in its total customer base to approximately 30,000, with significant contributions from customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR).
• Notably, Datadog marked the expansion of its key products with infrastructure monitoring contributing over $1.25 billion in ARR and both log management and end-to-end application performance management (APM) exceeding $750 million each.

• Global Payments Inc.’s recent earnings call highlighted both the opportunities and challenges the company faces as it seeks to reposition itself in the competitive landscape of commerce solutions.
• During the fourth quarter and throughout 2024, the company reported solid financial and operational outcomes, underscoring a strategic transformation aimed at long-term growth and efficiency.
• From a performance perspective, Global Payments delivered adjusted net revenue growth of 6% for the full year and achieved a record adjusted operating margin, with earnings per share rising by 11%.