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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won’t improve quickly.
  • Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.
  • If investors truly understand “the essence” of HEC Changjiang Pharma, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: International Business Machines and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • IBM Pulls R&D Units Out of China in Latest Withdrawal by U.S. Firm


IBM Pulls R&D Units Out of China in Latest Withdrawal by U.S. Firm

By Caixin Global

  • IBM Corp. is shutting down two major research and development (R&D) units in China, amid declining business in the country and mirroring a broader trend of U.S. tech firms scaling back their presence in China.

  • The units affected by the pullback are IBM’s China Development Lab (CDL) and China Systems Lab (CSL), both established in 1999.

  • CDL, which focused on application software development, has more than 1,000 employees, while CSL, which focused on system development such as mainframe database, has a team of 695, one IBM worker told Caixin.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Jardine Matheson Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keep an Eye on Samsung C&T & SK Square as the Next Hot Picks for Value-Up Announcements
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props


Keep an Eye on Samsung C&T & SK Square as the Next Hot Picks for Value-Up Announcements

By Sanghyun Park

  • Construction and semiconductors are key targets due to their low value-up representation. For shareholder returns, keep an eye on Samsung C&T and SK Square.
  • Expect announcements before the mid-September value-up index, with early September releases mirroring LG Electronics’ prior notices and detailed plans arriving by Q4.
  • Even with prior notices, details will leak. Samsung C&T and SK Square are likely to prioritize short-term shareholder returns over long-term growth, potentially leading to a bigger price impact.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Financials: Edelweiss Financial Services, ESR Group , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, Rli Corp, Globe Life , Shin Kong Financial Holding, Radian Group, Reinsurance Group of America, Ryan Specialty Holdings , Selective Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Edelweiss: Scaling Up Well | Value Unlocking Is Catalyzing Re-Rating
  • Weekly Deals Digest (01 Sep) – ESR, Canvest, China TCM, CPMC, Shinko, Silverlake, Terumo, Midea
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – A Distinctly Positive Tone
  • RLI Corp.: Expansion and Innovation in Surety Products & Major Drivers
  • Globe Life Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru
  • Radian Group Inc.: Investment in Growth and Diverse Revenue Streams! – Major Drivers
  • Reinsurance Group of America: What Are Its Enhanced In-force Management Strategies? – Major Drivers
  • Ryan Specialty Group Holdings: E&S Market Dynamics & Major Drivers
  • Selective Insurance Group Inc.: Enhanced Commercial Lines Pricing and Retention Strategies! – Major Drivers


Edelweiss: Scaling Up Well | Value Unlocking Is Catalyzing Re-Rating

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss Financial Services (“Edelweiss”) continues to scale up well its asset management and insurance businesses. The credit business has been also turning around led by the co-lending model.
  • In particular, the asset management business has been growing rapidly. The alternatives asset management AUM grew 17% YoY, of which fee-paying AUM grew 32% YoY.
  • With all its businesses now running independently, Edelweiss is focusing on unlocking value. It already demerged Nuvama and is now close to unlock value in its Alternative Asset management business.

Weekly Deals Digest (01 Sep) – ESR, Canvest, China TCM, CPMC, Shinko, Silverlake, Terumo, Midea

By Arun George


Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – A Distinctly Positive Tone

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) presented an optimistic picture from 2Q2024, with management upgrading the loan growth forecast range for the year by a notch with an improving liquidity backdrop.
  • Credit costs remain low with the SME segment the only segment with lingering problems from vintage pre-2022 loans but otherwise, LAR are in decline with room to cut coverage ratios.
  • BNI made a big fanfare of the launch of its brand new “wondr” banking app which is already off to a strong start with more active users. Valuations are attractive. 

RLI Corp.: Expansion and Innovation in Surety Products & Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • RLI Corp. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2024, reflecting a comprehensive picture of growth and financial stability across its various segments.
  • The company, with its broad portfolio of insurance products, demonstrated robust underwriting profitability and significant net investment income growth.
  • The deep dive into each segment reveals both strengths and areas with scope for vigilance.

Globe Life Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Globe Life Inc., in the second quarter of 2024, reported a net income of $258 million, or $2.83 per share, compared to $215 million, or $2.24 per share, a year ago—an impressive growth of around 20%.
  • The net operating income also saw a notable increase to $271 million, or $2.97 per share, reflecting a 14% rise from the previous year.
  • This indicates a robust improvement in profitability, underscoring the company’s operational efficiency and financial strength.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Radian Group Inc.: Investment in Growth and Diverse Revenue Streams! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Radian Group Inc. has reported a robust set of results for the second quarter of 2024, indicating consistent progress across its primary sectors of business operations amidst a variable interest rate environment.
  • The highlights of the quarter included an increase in book value per share by 12% year-over-year, reaching $29.66, and a revenue surge to $321 million.
  • Additionally, the firm achieved a net income of $152 million.

Reinsurance Group of America: What Are Its Enhanced In-force Management Strategies? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA) reported robust second quarter 2024 results, delivering adjusted operating earnings of $5.48 per share, showcasing strong performance across its business lines and geographies.
  • This was supported by a pipeline of robust new business activities, contributing to an adjusted operating return on equity of 15.3% for the past 12 months, surpassing intermediate-term targets.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Ryan Specialty Group Holdings: E&S Market Dynamics & Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ryan Specialty Holdings continued its robust growth trajectory in the second quarter of 2024, achieving impressive financial results with an 18.8% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $695 million, driven by robust organic growth of 14.2%.
  • This growth is underpinned by the company’s clear focus on niche market specialization and talent.
  • Adjusted EBITDAC saw a considerable rise of 27.6% to $248 million, while the adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded by 240 basis points to 35.6%.

Selective Insurance Group Inc.: Enhanced Commercial Lines Pricing and Retention Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Selective Insurance Group Inc. delivered a mixed performance in the second quarter of 2024, navigating challenges that reflect broader industry-wide issues affecting insurers.
  • John Marchioni, the CEO, highlighted the company’s commitment to disciplined underwriting, pricing, and reserving practices, which remain intact despite the pressures of social inflation affecting liability lines, particularly general liability.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia, SHEIN, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Shivam Autotech, Raccoon Holdings, Inc. and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida
  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – The Ace Hardware Separation Is a Rebranding Opportunity
  • SHEIN & Temu Updates: ‘De Minimis’ Threat | Chinese X-Border Slowdown | Plastics! | AMZN Project?
  • TOPIX Revision May Be an Opportunity for Companies to Choose to Go Private
  • Shivam Autotech Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Q1 FY04/25 flash update


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

By David Blennerhassett


Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – The Ace Hardware Separation Is a Rebranding Opportunity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia has been rebranded to Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia after the franchise agreement with ACE US was not renewed. Given ACES’s long-standing independence, we see this as an opportunity. 
  • The new names for the company will not be the brand names for the stores and Ace Hardware products are a tiny portion of the Indonesian company’s SKUs anyway.
  • Concerns over the separation look overblown with ACES seeing a strong YTD performance above guidance with valuations looking attractive after recent share price weakness, with new store rollout ongoing.

SHEIN & Temu Updates: ‘De Minimis’ Threat | Chinese X-Border Slowdown | Plastics! | AMZN Project?

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Draconian ‘de minimis’ reform proposal in the US has bipartisan support
  • In Q224 results, rampant signs of a Chinese X-border retail slowdown
  • Other news: plastics laws, new Amazon threat, SHEIN sustainability initiatives

TOPIX Revision May Be an Opportunity for Companies to Choose to Go Private

By Aki Matsumoto

  • New TOPIX still has a large number of stocks and its components aren’t sufficiently liquid. TSE seems to have considered the companies that are under pressure to sell their shares.
  • The challenge for companies excluded from TOPIX components should achieve sustainable growth by continuous review of their business portfolios to achieve growth that they could not achieve in the past.
  • The company’s performance must be in line with the plan disclosed by the company in response to the TSE’s request. These companies should consider whether they should remain listed.

Shivam Autotech Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Shivam Autotech (SVAT IN) or (SATL) serves OEMs by manufacturing a range of auto components and accessories including transmission gears, transmission shafts, etc.  
  • The company’s business performance over the last few years has looked grim with stagnant revenues, declining margins and ballooning losses. Balance sheet has only gotten more fragile.
  • Auditor’s comments on material weakness on internal controls, increasing receivables, balance sheet ALM mismatch are few red herrings to look out for.

Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Q1 FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 9.6% YoY to JPY1.5bn, with operating profit up 7.6% YoY to JPY300mn.
  • EC business revenue rose 8.6% YoY to JPY866mn, while segment profit decreased 2.7% YoY to JPY299mn.
  • Financial business revenue grew 11.0% YoY to JPY658mn, with segment profit down 44.7% YoY to JPY183mn.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 30th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 30th): Tencent, Aia, Kuaishou Technology


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 30th): Tencent, Aia, Kuaishou Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 30th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Sasol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Sasol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Sasol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Sasol’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores. The company’s Governance is “Strong”. Controversies are “Material”, but Disclosure is “Strong”. 

The group aspires to be included in the DJSI.


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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

By Joe Jasper

  • Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan’s TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe’s EURO STOXX 50.
  • We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
  • Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.

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Daily Brief ECM: Finding Unusual Arbitrage Angles in Kumyang’s Effectively Pre-Announced Capital Increase and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Finding Unusual Arbitrage Angles in Kumyang’s Effectively Pre-Announced Capital Increase
  • Hamamatsu Photonics (6965) – Toyota Selling Yet Another Cross-Holding


Finding Unusual Arbitrage Angles in Kumyang’s Effectively Pre-Announced Capital Increase

By Sanghyun Park

  • The arbitrage is clear: it’s the difference between stock rights/subscription costs and short hedge price. Kumyang’s high market interest and volatility amplify this, suggesting unusual trading angles.
  • Kumyang’s futures also show extreme volatility, likely causing excessive backwardation around the ex-rights date and stock rights window, affecting futures-based short hedge positions.
  • This opens up the possibility that, depending on entry points, our futures-based short hedge position might temporarily enter an unusual profitable zone relative to the stock rights and subscription costs.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965) – Toyota Selling Yet Another Cross-Holding

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close we got news that after a year-plus of Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP)‘s sliding stock price, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is selling their 5+% stake.
  • The offering is standard. Probably prices 9 Sep 2024. HP’s amended buyback program and probable index upweights offset most of the offering size over the next several months.
  • So investors have to decide whether they want to catch the falling knife.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): # 53 India Insight: NTPC Nuclear Energy Expansion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • # 53 India Insight: NTPC Nuclear Energy Expansion, Raymond Expansion, HCL Tech New Revenue Stream
  • Institutions Adjust Portfolios Amid Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility (13F Filings 30/Jun)
  • China Vows to Defend EV-Makers as EU Confirms Additional Import Duties
  • What Is the Upside if Buy China RE Stocks? Valuation Is All-Time Low, 5 Factors to Drive Re-Rating
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 23-29, 2024
  • China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals – Mid-Year 2024 Check And… Some History
  • Mat-Chem Notes Caution – Canada Rail Strike, Weakening Ag-Chem Market, and Slower EV Adoption
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 30/08/2024


# 53 India Insight: NTPC Nuclear Energy Expansion, Raymond Expansion, HCL Tech New Revenue Stream

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • NTPC to establish Plans New Subsidiary for Nuclear Energy Expansion
  • Raymond Lifestyle’s Strategic Expansion: 900 New Stores in Three Years
  • L&T Construction Slashes Timelines by 50% with 3D Printing Technology

Institutions Adjust Portfolios Amid Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility (13F Filings 30/Jun)

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Vanguard’s 95.3% reduction in TSMC holdings underscores concerns over geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks impacting the semiconductor sector’s stability and future growth. 
  • Citadel’s 876% increase in Thermo Fisher shares reflects strong confidence in the healthcare sector, particularly in companies poised to benefit from technological advancements and market expansion. 
  • Berkshire Hathaway’s 49.3% cut in Apple holdings suggests a strategic move to lock in profits after significant gains, while reallocating capital to less volatile investments.

China Vows to Defend EV-Makers as EU Confirms Additional Import Duties

By Caixin Global

  • China has denounced the European Commission’s plan to definitely impose tariff hikes on all electric vehicles (EVs) shipped from the country as “unreasonable,” and vowed to take “all necessary measures” to defend Chinese companies.
  • The commission on Tuesday announced an adjusted set of proposed additional duties on China-made EVs as part of an ongoing investigation that found state subsidies are enabling Chinese electric-car makers to undercut their European rivals.
  • In an escalation of trade frictions, China on Wednesday launched an anti-subsidy investigation into European Union dairy products.

What Is the Upside if Buy China RE Stocks? Valuation Is All-Time Low, 5 Factors to Drive Re-Rating

By Jacob Cheng

  • Today news reported that China has announced policy where mortgage holders can negotiate with banks on their rates.  We think this is a strong boost to the sentiment
  • Despite today sector is up 3-11%, valuation is at all time low and we think the risk reward profile is attractive, especially macro environment is turning more favorable
  • We think there can be potential upside of 40-200% depending on stock selection.  We also identify 5 factor that can drive a sector rerating

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 23-29, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals – Mid-Year 2024 Check And… Some History

By Robert Ciemniak

  • Our annual ‘draw the line’ forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China’s new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected
  • In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the ‘wisdom of crowds’ working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline
  • The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS

Mat-Chem Notes Caution – Canada Rail Strike, Weakening Ag-Chem Market, and Slower EV Adoption

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI keeping pace with broad markets. YTD, the S&P 500 has appreciated 18%, compared with the 9.5% appreciation for the broader Russell 2000, while our WTR-CMI Index has improved 8.4%, held back primarily by lithium stocks, which are off anywhere from 37% for ALB to 68% for PLL.
  • Two companies in our index, RYAM and ECL, have outperformed even the tech-heavy S&P 500, coming off a challenging 2023.
  • Unfortunately, with both lithium and ag markets still under pressure, we do not expect companies in our sector to outperform the broader markets in 2H24, although individual stock outperformance may continue.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 30/08/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte.
  • The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations.
  • The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut.

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