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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 10th): CSL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 10th): CSL, BHP, Imugene, Wisetech Global, Macquarie


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 10th): CSL, BHP, Imugene, Wisetech Global, Macquarie

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in CSL, BHP, Imugene, Wisetech Global, Macquarie.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Eoflow , WuXi XDC Cayman , Max Healthcare Institute, Takara Bio Inc, InMed Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • EOFlow Craters. Medtronic Stays Mum
  • Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow
  • WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Robust Financial Performance in Q2; Expansion Projects Are On Track
  • Takara Bio (4974 JP): Smaller-Than-Expected Decline in H1FY24 Profit; FY24 Guidance Revised Downward
  • InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – 1QFY24 Review: Pharmaceutical Advances Continue


EOFlow Craters. Medtronic Stays Mum

By David Blennerhassett

  • Five weeks after shares were suspended, EOFlow (294090 KS) shares resumed trading this morning, the 16 November. Wording is sparse on the resumption.
  • One small consolation was that EOFlow may benefit from the temporary ban on short selling. Irrespective, shares have declined ~27% at the open, as I type.  
  • Elsewhere, Medtronic Plc (MDT US) provides no guidance. The only other news of note are the various court filings in the District Court of Massachusetts.

Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow

By Sanghyun Park

  • It can be considered that the suspension of EOFlow’s trading and, furthermore, the risk of delisting have been completely eliminated at this point.
  • EOFlow emphasizes the possibility of circumventing sales of EOPatch by supplying EOPump to a JV in China. The key factors that initially sparked Medtronic’s interest in EOFlow are still valid.
  • If CEO Kim fails to repay a stock collateral loan of ₩20B or secure additional loans, approximately 4% of the total issued shares could be sold in the market.

WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Robust Financial Performance in Q2; Expansion Projects Are On Track

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q2FY24, Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) reported revenue growth of 17% YoY and 6% QoQ to INR18.3B, driven by higher ARPOB and occupied bed days.
  • EBITDA grew 21% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR4.5B, leading to a 100 basis point YoY and 190 basis point QoQ margin expansion to 28.7%.
  • MHIL expect greenfield 300 bed hospital in Dwarka, South-west Delhi will be commissioned in later half of Q4FY24. It was originally expected to be commissioned in Q2FY24.

Takara Bio (4974 JP): Smaller-Than-Expected Decline in H1FY24 Profit; FY24 Guidance Revised Downward

By Tina Banerjee

  • In H1FY24, Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) reported 41% YoY decline in revenue to ¥19.1B, dragged by 46% YoY decrease in revenue from reagents, which contributed 78% of total revenue.
  • Operating profit plunged 87% YoY to ¥1.4B, 28% ahead of guidance, due to lower-than-expected R&D expenses. Net profit decreased 87% YoY to ¥1.1B, 67% higher than the guidance.
  • Takara Bio has cut FY24 sales, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 15%, 63%, and 64%, respectively, as the company is anticipating a sluggish life science R&D market globally.

InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – 1QFY24 Review: Pharmaceutical Advances Continue

By Water Tower Research

  • BayMedica registers strong Y/Y growth. Although BayMedica reported a 61% decline in sequential revenue in the opening quarter of its new fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, the $902K in sales reported for 1QFY24 was nevertheless almost triple the $321K generated in the year-ago quarter.
  • The immaturity of rare cannabinoids ingredients market for health & wellness products makes it difficult to determine definitively any seasonality in the business.
  • However, it should not go unnoticed that the sequential sales drop in the latest summer quarter does repeat the pattern reported in 1QFY23 when sequential sales at BayMedica declined by almost 40%. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Steadfast, WuXi XDC Cayman , Sparx Group, Jana Small Finance Bank, Triple Point Social Housing REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Steadfast Group Placement – While Accretion Here Is Limited, Past Deals Have Done Well
  • Wuxi XDC: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • SPARX – Sharply Expanding ROE, 1H24 Profit Annualized Surges YoY, FUM Strongly Up, Costs Contained
  • Jana Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Has Grown Decently Fast but Keep an Eye on Its CRAR
  • Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Q323 DPS was fully covered


Steadfast Group Placement – While Accretion Here Is Limited, Past Deals Have Done Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Steadfast (SDF AU) is looking to raise around A$280m (US$180m) to fund the acquisition of Sure Insurance, and provide headroom for potentially additional acquisitions over the year.
  • SDF has undertaken a number of capital raises in the past to similarly fund its active acquisition strategy. Overall, the firm’s past deal record has been strong.
  • In this note, we will talk about the acquisition and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Wuxi XDC: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Wuxi XDC priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share (upper-end of range), and raised HK$3.5bn (US$417m) at a market capitalisation of HK$24.3bn and post-money EV of HK$20.4bn.
  • Both HK offering and the international offering of the company were significantly oversubscribed by 49.96x and 19.6x respectively.
  • Our DCF value per share is still at a significant premium to the final IPO price, and we expect Wuxi XDC’s IPO to have a strong debut.

SPARX – Sharply Expanding ROE, 1H24 Profit Annualized Surges YoY, FUM Strongly Up, Costs Contained

By Daniel Tabbush

  • ROE is now 24.4% in 1H24 compared with 18.0% last year. ROE consistently rising well, from 15.9% in FY21.
  • Quarterly net profit up 47% YoY in 2Q24. On an annualized basis, net profit in FY24 can show considerable delta from FY23, a year when returns and profit were good.
  • Costs are well-contained. SG&A to assets was 23.7% at its recent peak and now it’s 20.8%. SG&A to revenue is now 55.5% compared with 65.3% at its recent peak.

Jana Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Has Grown Decently Fast but Keep an Eye on Its CRAR

By Ethan Aw

  • Jana Small Finance Bank (3667144Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Jana Small Finance Bank (JSFB) is the fourth largest small finance bank in India in terms of AUM and deposit size as of FY23 (Year ended 31st Mar 2023).
  • JSFB has grown its number of banking outlets and amount of deposits fast, which allowed the firm to grow its gross advances by 1.5x over the track record period. 

Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Q323 DPS was fully covered

By Edison Investment Research

With indexed rental growth continuing and rent collection recovering, Triple Point Social Housing REIT’s (SOHO’s) Q323 dividend was fully covered, and we expect this to continue. Meanwhile, while the board continues its focus on closing the share price discount to NAV, it has concluded that any further capital return is dependent on significant additional liquidity being generated through property sales.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Asahi Group Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , DXN Holdings, Volkswagen (Pref), Dentsu Inc, Wynn Macau Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies
  • Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy
  • Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key
  • Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement
  • DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report
  • Dentsu Group – One dentsu initiative set to improve efficiency
  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd


Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies

By Travis Lundy

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) today announced a collection of 10 shareholders (mostly financial institutions) would sell a total of 33.48mm shares (6.6% of shares out) in Asahi Group. 
  • This will become more of a thing going forward. Cross-holders “want” to unwind. And in many cases, the cross-held want to buy back stock (reduce E, raise ROE).
  • This deal is “good” in that it clears out a lot of the bank cross-holders in one fell swoop. But there are more crossholders behind.

Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
  • The deal would represent 23 days of Asahi’s three month ADV. Its latest extended large primary deal has done very well.
  • While the deal isn’t particularly well flagged, it is an extended one allowing the market to price in the impact of the share sale. 

Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s operating margin rose to 15% in 2Q24 versus 12% in 2Q23.
  • Every expense as percentage of total revenue decreased and EBITDA of every business line increased.
  • We believe the reorganization is going smoothly and the stock has an upside of 82%. Buy.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key

By Brian Freitas

  • Nine shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares of Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP). That is US$1.28bn, 24x ADV and 6.6% of shares outstanding.
  • Given the recent run up in the stock, there could be downside over the next couple of weeks ahead of the pricing date.
  • There will be buying from global trackers but nothing from TOPIX trackers, so not a lot of stock will be mopped up. Passive buying before settlement could create a squeeze.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement

By Arun George

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) announced a pure secondary offering of 33.5 million or 6.61% of outstanding shares. At the last close, the placement was worth JPY194 billion (US$1.3 billion).
  • Notwithstanding Asahi’s explanation, the selling shareholders’ motivation for exiting their shareholding is likely to capitalise on the strong share price performance – Asahi shares are up 45% YTD.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 28 November and 1 December (likely 28 November).

DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • DXN Holdings (DXN MK) was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off lockup soon.
  • DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
  • Demand for the IPO was lukewarm and the shares had a turbulent debut. Aside from its weak momentum, liquidity on the stock is weak as well. 

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10 widened, 1 at same level).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.

Dentsu Group – One dentsu initiative set to improve efficiency

By Edison Investment Research

Dentsu’s Q323 trading update describes demanding trading conditions with continuing spending constraint from customers in technology and finance, and ongoing delays to larger digital transformation projects. Full year organic revenue guidance is revised to -5% (from 0% to -2%), with an operating margin of 13.5%, depressed by one-off factors from 15.0%. The outlook is improving, albeit patchily, and initiatives to streamline the business and structure it more effectively to meet client needs should benefit the operating margin in FY24 and beyond.


Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit
  • Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part III)
  • [Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK
  • Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal
  • [Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 10-16, 2023


Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.1% , Nasdaq +0.1%; Relatively stable day. Walmart stock -8% on cautious outlook, Burberry -9% on weak luxury spend
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY 150.8/$; Japan to scrap quarterly reporting? Asahi Group Share Offering
  • ValueAct’s investment into Recruit highlights continued opportunities and value in the Japanese market

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part III)

By Alexis Dwek

  • Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
  • However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
  • Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)
  • BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)
  • On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.

Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The Chinese airlines are best placed to ride on lower US interest rates and the induced weakening of USD given heavy USD debt, which amounts to 17.7% of the total.
  • A 1% drop in USD interest rates will save Rmb1.2bn, and this is more than the total profit they have generated in 9M23. FY24 will be a big swing year.
  • This is an overlooked sector as their share prices have dropped by an average of 21.8% YTD. However, profits turned around and revenue surged tremendously in the period. 

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

By Eric Wen

  • ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
  • XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
  • 981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 10-16, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Lenovo and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd


Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Pasona: The Wrong Price and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Pasona: The Wrong Price
  • New Phase in Korean Short Selling: Immediate Impact of MM and LP Short Selling Ban
  • EOFlow Craters. Medtronic Stays Mum
  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies
  • Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key
  • Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow
  • Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: The Race For Europe’s Multi-Billion Dollar Index Flows
  • Hong Kong CEO/Director Dealings (17 Nov): ENN’s Controlling Shareholder Buying; Li Buys More PCCW
  • DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak


Pasona: The Wrong Price

By Travis Lundy

  • As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
  • That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
  • Though we don’t know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. 

New Phase in Korean Short Selling: Immediate Impact of MM and LP Short Selling Ban

By Sanghyun Park

  • There is a prevailing sentiment in the local market that short selling by market makers (MM) and liquidity providers (LP) will effectively be prohibited very shortly.
  • The widening of the futures basis extends the influence of futures on the spot market prices. This is precisely where trading opportunities that we should be keenly observing may arise.
  • It also leads to a significant widening of ETF tracking errors due to the direct sell-off of underlying shares. We must capitalize on extreme spreads in ETFs.

EOFlow Craters. Medtronic Stays Mum

By David Blennerhassett

  • Five weeks after shares were suspended, EOFlow (294090 KS) shares resumed trading this morning, the 16 November. Wording is sparse on the resumption.
  • One small consolation was that EOFlow may benefit from the temporary ban on short selling. Irrespective, shares have declined ~27% at the open, as I type.  
  • Elsewhere, Medtronic Plc (MDT US) provides no guidance. The only other news of note are the various court filings in the District Court of Massachusetts.

Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies

By Travis Lundy

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) today announced a collection of 10 shareholders (mostly financial institutions) would sell a total of 33.48mm shares (6.6% of shares out) in Asahi Group. 
  • This will become more of a thing going forward. Cross-holders “want” to unwind. And in many cases, the cross-held want to buy back stock (reduce E, raise ROE).
  • This deal is “good” in that it clears out a lot of the bank cross-holders in one fell swoop. But there are more crossholders behind.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key

By Brian Freitas

  • Nine shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares of Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP). That is US$1.28bn, 24x ADV and 6.6% of shares outstanding.
  • Given the recent run up in the stock, there could be downside over the next couple of weeks ahead of the pricing date.
  • There will be buying from global trackers but nothing from TOPIX trackers, so not a lot of stock will be mopped up. Passive buying before settlement could create a squeeze.

Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow

By Sanghyun Park

  • It can be considered that the suspension of EOFlow’s trading and, furthermore, the risk of delisting have been completely eliminated at this point.
  • EOFlow emphasizes the possibility of circumventing sales of EOPatch by supplying EOPump to a JV in China. The key factors that initially sparked Medtronic’s interest in EOFlow are still valid.
  • If CEO Kim fails to repay a stock collateral loan of ₩20B or secure additional loans, approximately 4% of the total issued shares could be sold in the market.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement

By Arun George

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) announced a pure secondary offering of 33.5 million or 6.61% of outstanding shares. At the last close, the placement was worth JPY194 billion (US$1.3 billion).
  • Notwithstanding Asahi’s explanation, the selling shareholders’ motivation for exiting their shareholding is likely to capitalise on the strong share price performance – Asahi shares are up 45% YTD.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 28 November and 1 December (likely 28 November).

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: The Race For Europe’s Multi-Billion Dollar Index Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
  • This annual index review usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year typically amounting to billions of dollars.
  • In this insight, we take an early look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.

Hong Kong CEO/Director Dealings (17 Nov): ENN’s Controlling Shareholder Buying; Li Buys More PCCW

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are ENN Energy (2688 HK), PCCW Ltd (8 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).

DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • DXN Holdings (DXN MK) was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off lockup soon.
  • DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
  • Demand for the IPO was lukewarm and the shares had a turbulent debut. Aside from its weak momentum, liquidity on the stock is weak as well. 

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Daily Brief ECM: Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns
  • Steadfast Group Placement – While Accretion Here Is Limited, Past Deals Have Done Well
  • Wuxi XDC: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut
  • Karoon Energy Placement – Not Well Flagged but Will Be an Accretive One
  • ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case
  • Tata Technologies Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Headline Growth Picking Up
  • Jana Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Has Grown Decently Fast but Keep an Eye on Its CRAR


Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
  • The deal would represent 23 days of Asahi’s three month ADV. Its latest extended large primary deal has done very well.
  • While the deal isn’t particularly well flagged, it is an extended one allowing the market to price in the impact of the share sale. 

Steadfast Group Placement – While Accretion Here Is Limited, Past Deals Have Done Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Steadfast (SDF AU) is looking to raise around A$280m (US$180m) to fund the acquisition of Sure Insurance, and provide headroom for potentially additional acquisitions over the year.
  • SDF has undertaken a number of capital raises in the past to similarly fund its active acquisition strategy. Overall, the firm’s past deal record has been strong.
  • In this note, we will talk about the acquisition and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Wuxi XDC: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Wuxi XDC priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share (upper-end of range), and raised HK$3.5bn (US$417m) at a market capitalisation of HK$24.3bn and post-money EV of HK$20.4bn.
  • Both HK offering and the international offering of the company were significantly oversubscribed by 49.96x and 19.6x respectively.
  • Our DCF value per share is still at a significant premium to the final IPO price, and we expect Wuxi XDC’s IPO to have a strong debut.

WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Karoon Energy Placement – Not Well Flagged but Will Be an Accretive One

By Ethan Aw

  • Karoon Energy Ltd (KAR AU) seeks to raise approximately A$170m (US$110m) through its primary placement.
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 28.5 days of three month ADV and 14.1% of current mcap. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
  • In ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.

Tata Technologies Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Headline Growth Picking Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) (TT) is looking to raise around US$370m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and provided our initial thoughts on valutions. In this note we talk about the RHP updates.

Jana Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Has Grown Decently Fast but Keep an Eye on Its CRAR

By Ethan Aw

  • Jana Small Finance Bank (3667144Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Jana Small Finance Bank (JSFB) is the fourth largest small finance bank in India in terms of AUM and deposit size as of FY23 (Year ended 31st Mar 2023).
  • JSFB has grown its number of banking outlets and amount of deposits fast, which allowed the firm to grow its gross advances by 1.5x over the track record period. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy
  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Paying the Price for Market Leadership
  • Nippon Paint (4612 JP):  Results Beat On Resilient China 2C Business
  • SPARX – Sharply Expanding ROE, 1H24 Profit Annualized Surges YoY, FUM Strongly Up, Costs Contained
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Robust Financial Performance in Q2; Expansion Projects Are On Track
  • Geniee (6562 JP) – Resilient Ad Growth and Marketing SaaS Driving Momentum
  • Takara Bio (4974 JP): Smaller-Than-Expected Decline in H1FY24 Profit; FY24 Guidance Revised Downward
  • InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – 1QFY24 Review: Pharmaceutical Advances Continue
  • Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Q323 DPS was fully covered
  • IPower, Inc. – Solid Start to FY24; Demonstrates Several Avenues for Further Growth


Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s operating margin rose to 15% in 2Q24 versus 12% in 2Q23.
  • Every expense as percentage of total revenue decreased and EBITDA of every business line increased.
  • We believe the reorganization is going smoothly and the stock has an upside of 82%. Buy.

Sea Ltd (SE US) – Paying the Price for Market Leadership

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) saw its 3Q2023 result swing back to a loss after turning on investment at Shopee during 3Q2023 in the face of competition.
  • The company was open about its renewed investment in growth during the previous quarter in the face of threats from TikTok Shop, which may have lessened post its Indonesia expulsion. 
  • Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an element of uncertainty. Valuations reflect this.

Nippon Paint (4612 JP):  Results Beat On Resilient China 2C Business

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) announced a better-than-expected 3Q23 results this week, mainly driven by a resilient China decorative paint business. 
  • The company also raised 2023 operating profit guidance, expecting around 6% higher operating profit (Y168bn from Y158bn previously).
  • At 21x forward PE, the company is attractively valued given the growth profile and strong market share position in most end-markets. 

SPARX – Sharply Expanding ROE, 1H24 Profit Annualized Surges YoY, FUM Strongly Up, Costs Contained

By Daniel Tabbush

  • ROE is now 24.4% in 1H24 compared with 18.0% last year. ROE consistently rising well, from 15.9% in FY21.
  • Quarterly net profit up 47% YoY in 2Q24. On an annualized basis, net profit in FY24 can show considerable delta from FY23, a year when returns and profit were good.
  • Costs are well-contained. SG&A to assets was 23.7% at its recent peak and now it’s 20.8%. SG&A to revenue is now 55.5% compared with 65.3% at its recent peak.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Robust Financial Performance in Q2; Expansion Projects Are On Track

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q2FY24, Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) reported revenue growth of 17% YoY and 6% QoQ to INR18.3B, driven by higher ARPOB and occupied bed days.
  • EBITDA grew 21% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR4.5B, leading to a 100 basis point YoY and 190 basis point QoQ margin expansion to 28.7%.
  • MHIL expect greenfield 300 bed hospital in Dwarka, South-west Delhi will be commissioned in later half of Q4FY24. It was originally expected to be commissioned in Q2FY24.

Geniee (6562 JP) – Resilient Ad Growth and Marketing SaaS Driving Momentum

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY3/2024 results demonstrated robust growth by Geniee with sales growth of 23.7% YoY and operating profit growth of 99.9% YoY.
  • The Marketing SaaS segment has seen robust sales growth and margin improvement YoY, paving the way for a resilient earnings stream going forward.
  • However, given a weaker-than-expected outlook for the advertising market both domestically and overseas, the company has lowered FY3/2024 guidance whilst maintaining its medium-term guidance range for FY3/2026.

Takara Bio (4974 JP): Smaller-Than-Expected Decline in H1FY24 Profit; FY24 Guidance Revised Downward

By Tina Banerjee

  • In H1FY24, Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) reported 41% YoY decline in revenue to ¥19.1B, dragged by 46% YoY decrease in revenue from reagents, which contributed 78% of total revenue.
  • Operating profit plunged 87% YoY to ¥1.4B, 28% ahead of guidance, due to lower-than-expected R&D expenses. Net profit decreased 87% YoY to ¥1.1B, 67% higher than the guidance.
  • Takara Bio has cut FY24 sales, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 15%, 63%, and 64%, respectively, as the company is anticipating a sluggish life science R&D market globally.

InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – 1QFY24 Review: Pharmaceutical Advances Continue

By Water Tower Research

  • BayMedica registers strong Y/Y growth. Although BayMedica reported a 61% decline in sequential revenue in the opening quarter of its new fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, the $902K in sales reported for 1QFY24 was nevertheless almost triple the $321K generated in the year-ago quarter.
  • The immaturity of rare cannabinoids ingredients market for health & wellness products makes it difficult to determine definitively any seasonality in the business.
  • However, it should not go unnoticed that the sequential sales drop in the latest summer quarter does repeat the pattern reported in 1QFY23 when sequential sales at BayMedica declined by almost 40%. 

Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Q323 DPS was fully covered

By Edison Investment Research

With indexed rental growth continuing and rent collection recovering, Triple Point Social Housing REIT’s (SOHO’s) Q323 dividend was fully covered, and we expect this to continue. Meanwhile, while the board continues its focus on closing the share price discount to NAV, it has concluded that any further capital return is dependent on significant additional liquidity being generated through property sales.


IPower, Inc. – Solid Start to FY24; Demonstrates Several Avenues for Further Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • iPower reported $26.5 million in revenue in 1QFY24, its highest quarterly revenue ever, compared with $26.0 million in 1QFY23.
  • The company’s performance was helped by business generated by its SuperSuite supply chain partnerships, currently on a $7 million annual run rate.
  • The company’s TikTok Shop sales also contributed to the solid sales results.

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Daily Brief Macro: Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling
  • EIA Watch: September Weakness Was Fake News. Time to Buy Oil?
  • CX Daily: Big Tech Is Changing in China, and So Are Its Hiring Plans
  • US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?


Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increase in trading of inverse ETFs in Korea post the temporary ban on stock short selling.
  • From 6th to 14th November, individual investors made net purchases of 46 inverse ETFs worth 3.7 trillion won. Local institutions also made net purchases of 1.6 trillion won. 
  • On the other hand, foreigners net sold 5.8 trillion won worth of inverse ETFs. 

EIA Watch: September Weakness Was Fake News. Time to Buy Oil?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome back to our weekly EIA report, where we run through demand and supply data and give our cents on where we are heading next – and what the implications are for energy markets.
  • As always we present the main conclusions up-front: 1) Oil demand will likely come in hot in November on the back of strong gasoline demand in October due to the lags in energy markets (Gasoline leads oil – not the other way around).
  • 2) Gasoline numbers in September were likely just a data-glimpse, as no high-frequent data series seem to agree with the narrative that demand for fuel is dropping.

CX Daily: Big Tech Is Changing in China, and So Are Its Hiring Plans

By Caixin Global

  • Jobs / In Depth: Big tech is changing in China, and so are its hiring plans\
  • China-U.S. /: China, U.S. agree to boost climate cooperation ahead of leaders’ meeting
  • Credit rating /: Central bank pushes fintech companies to jump into credit rating


US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

By Anne Sandager

  • The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut down.
  • The so-called Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed in a 336-95 vote.
  • Two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — and 93 Republicans opposed the bill. 

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