Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Exxon Mobil Corporation concluded its fourth quarter of 2023 with strong results, emphasizing the execution excellence of its business units throughout the year.
These results were primarily driven by the company’s commitment to its employees’ operation and safety standards alongside significant strides in project building, technology deployment, supply-chain management, and trading.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

International Paper Company: Commercial initiatives And Strategic Investments

International Paper Company’s financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2023 was largely influenced by challenging market conditions.
Demand for the company’s products was notably lower throughout the bulk of the year.
This change in demand was driven by consumers choosing to focus their spending on services and essential goods.

WestRock Company: Strategic Investments for Growth-Oriented Opportunities & Other Major Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts

Based on the third fiscal quarter 2023 earnings, it becomes clear that WestRock is focused on improving business outcomes and delivering value to shareholders even in a challenging market environment.
Net sales for the quarter stood at $5.1 billion, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA at $802 million.
The company exceeded its guidance owing to strong execution, productivity gains, and moderating input costs.

Southern Copper Corporation: Shift in Copper Market Dynamics & How The Company Is Adapting! – Major Drivers

Southern Copper Corporation’s earnings centered around its 2023 results and offered insight into the company’s financial outlook.
The company reported net sales of $9,896 million in 2023, which was lower by 1.5% compared to 2022.
Despite the reduction, the company considers the results satisfactory, owing to higher sales volumes for copper and molybdenum, as well as better prices for molybdenum and silver.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Industrials: Welbe Inc, Dover Corp, Stanley Black & Decker, Talgo SA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris
Dover Corporation: Delivering Engineered Solutions For Industry Needs & Safety! – Major Drivers
Stanley Black & Decker: Cost Savings Through Supply Chain Transformation & Other Major Drivers
Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris

On Thursday after the close, an entity tied to Polaris Capital announced an MBO of Welbe Inc (6556 JP). (Note this is Welbe not Welby Inc (4438 JP)).
The MBO by Tender Offer is set at ¥1,089/share is at a 29.952% premium to Thursday’s last trade. Coincidentally. It is well below where it traded 3-5 years ago.
If large domestic financial investors want a bump, we might see some fun, but I expect there is enough ownership willing to tender to get this over the hump.

Dover Corporation: Delivering Engineered Solutions For Industry Needs & Safety! – Major Drivers

Dover Management’s Q4 2023 earnings indicated a generally positive company performance in a challenging market context.
CEO Richard Tobin and CFO Brad Cerepak conveyed a forward looking stance based on Q4’s market conditions following on from Q3, focusing on maintaining production levels to balance channel inventories.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Stanley Black & Decker: Cost Savings Through Supply Chain Transformation & Other Major Drivers

Stanley Black & Decker Management has expressed an optimistic outlook on their financial performance for the year 2024.
Despite facing challenging market conditions during 2023, the company demonstrated solid performance, with significant progress in two of their most important focus areas—generating above $850 million free cash flow and the continuous improvement of adjusted gross margin through each quarter.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM) is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.
Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share.
Top investors (>45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Roland DG Corp, SCREEN Holdings, Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc, Weave Communications Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Roland DG (6789) – Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners – Nice Premium But Too Cheap
Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying
Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000
Broadridge Financial Solutions: Closed Sales Outlook & Changing Demand Environment – Will They Adapt? – Major Drivers
Weave Communicati Inc (WEAV) – Sunday, Nov 12, 2023

Roland DG (6789) – Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners – Nice Premium But Too Cheap

Taiyo Pacific Partners took the original parent company (Roland Corp (7944 JP) of Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) private in 2014. It was re-listed in 2020.
Roland DG is one of the world’s leading large format digital printer manufacturers. They also make some interesting medical devices and systemic tools, and 3D milling/printing/engraving/photo impact machines.
This TOB is at a 30.1% premium. Almost a 10yr high. But it is not expensive. And even if TPP has 20%, there is a LOT of float left over.

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.
However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.

Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000

By Cam Hui

We believe the current AI-driven rally has a long way to run. Market mania tops are characterized by excessive froth, which is not in evidence today.
In the short run, price momentum in technology stocks is faltering, and these stocks can pull back at any time.
We would regard any pullback in these stocks as a buying opportunity.

Broadridge Financial Solutions: Closed Sales Outlook & Changing Demand Environment – Will They Adapt? – Major Drivers

The latest earnings call transcript for Broadridge Financial Solutions reveals steady growth and a positive fiscal year outlook.
Broadridge achieved impressive Q2 results, with healthy organic growth across both segments aligning with their long-term goals.
Strong fund position growth and mid-single-digit equity position growth contributed to their financial performance.

Weave Communicati Inc (WEAV) – Sunday, Nov 12, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

Weave Communications is a SaaS business that offers communications software for specific vertical markets like dentists, veterinarians, optometrists, and small medical practices.
The company has shown impressive growth at a rate of 20% and is on the precipice of becoming profitable.
Weave is currently undervalued, trading at only 2x sales, despite its promising performance and potential for profitability.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Industrials: Welbe Inc, Dover Corp, Stanley Black & Decker, Talgo SA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris
Dover Corporation: Delivering Engineered Solutions For Industry Needs & Safety! – Major Drivers
Stanley Black & Decker: Cost Savings Through Supply Chain Transformation & Other Major Drivers
Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris

On Thursday after the close, an entity tied to Polaris Capital announced an MBO of Welbe Inc (6556 JP). (Note this is Welbe not Welby Inc (4438 JP)).
The MBO by Tender Offer is set at ¥1,089/share is at a 29.952% premium to Thursday’s last trade. Coincidentally. It is well below where it traded 3-5 years ago.
If large domestic financial investors want a bump, we might see some fun, but I expect there is enough ownership willing to tender to get this over the hump.

Dover Corporation: Delivering Engineered Solutions For Industry Needs & Safety! – Major Drivers

Dover Management’s Q4 2023 earnings indicated a generally positive company performance in a challenging market context.
CEO Richard Tobin and CFO Brad Cerepak conveyed a forward looking stance based on Q4’s market conditions following on from Q3, focusing on maintaining production levels to balance channel inventories.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Stanley Black & Decker: Cost Savings Through Supply Chain Transformation & Other Major Drivers

Stanley Black & Decker Management has expressed an optimistic outlook on their financial performance for the year 2024.
Despite facing challenging market conditions during 2023, the company demonstrated solid performance, with significant progress in two of their most important focus areas—generating above $850 million free cash flow and the continuous improvement of adjusted gross margin through each quarter.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM) is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.
Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share.
Top investors (>45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Health Care: Cardinal Health, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, Bio Techne Corp, Hologic Inc, Quest Diagnostics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Cardinal Health: Expanding Acquisitions Portfolio With Specialty Networks & Other Major Drivers
Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India Momentum; Q3 Net Profit Jumps 27%; Buyback Approved
Bio-Techne Corporation: A Tale Of Resilience Amid Economic Challenges! – Major Drivers
Hologic Inc: Fortifying Market Position Through Innovation & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
Quest Diagnostics: Continued Investment in New Technologies and Automated Solutions! – Major Drivers

Cardinal Health: Expanding Acquisitions Portfolio With Specialty Networks & Other Major Drivers

Cardinal Health has recently announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024.
CEO Jason Hollar and CFO Aaron Alt expressed satisfaction with the progress the company has made, demonstrating strong profit growth in both segments and expected growth for 7% to 9% in segment profit for fiscal 2024.
Cardinal Health’s acquisition of Specialty Networks is seen as a key step in enhancing the company’s specialty growth strategy.

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India Momentum; Q3 Net Profit Jumps 27%; Buyback Approved

By Tina Banerjee

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) reported 16% YoY and 7% QoQ growth in India formulation business revenue in Q3FY24 on the back of healthy volume growth and new product launches.
Profitability improvement continued, with Q3FY24 improving 200 basis points YoY to 24.5%. Net profit surged 27% YoY.
The Board approved INR6 billion buyback, representing 0.59% of total outstanding equity shares at a price of INR1005 per share (25% premium to last closing price) via tender offer route.

Bio-Techne Corporation: A Tale Of Resilience Amid Economic Challenges! – Major Drivers

Bio-Techne, amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions, reported an organic revenue decline of 2% for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024.
The healthcare company’s earnings were impacted by various headwinds including a cautious biopharma spending environment, a tougher macroeconomic climate in China, and lowered demand from OEM customers.
Bio-Techne’s core portfolio, however, continued to drive the company’s long-term growth potential with a 7% average growth rate over the last decade.

Hologic Inc: Fortifying Market Position Through Innovation & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

Hologic reported its fiscal Q1 2024 results, demonstrating strong financial performance with total revenue reaching $1.01 billion, above the high end of the company’s guidance.
In spite of four fewer selling days than in Q1 2023, the firm achieved total organic revenue growth, excluding COVID-19, of 5.2%.
When adjusted for the fewer selling days, estimated total company organic revenue growth excluding COVID-19 was in the high single digits.

Quest Diagnostics: Continued Investment in New Technologies and Automated Solutions! – Major Drivers

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call highlighted the company’s strategy to focus on top-line growth across core customer channels and increase profitability.
In 2023, the company delivered 7% revenue growth in its base business and achieved its earnings commitments as it shifted away from COVID-19 testing.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Consumer: Lawson Inc, Hyundai Motor , Nissan Motor, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Clorox Company, Sirius Xm Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Feb) – Lawson, Benefit One, Welbe, China TCM, L’Occitane, Hollysys
Exploring Prioritized Buyback/Cancellation of Samsung Electronics & Hyundai Motor Prefs
ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) – Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel
Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?
The Clorox Company: A Genius Strategy to Crush Digital Transformation and Improve Sales! – Major Drivers
Sirius XM Holdings Inc: Flexible Pricing and Packaging & 5 Catalysts For Future Growth! – Major Drivers

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Feb) – Lawson, Benefit One, Welbe, China TCM, L’Occitane, Hollysys

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and FirstCry (0172540D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Lawson Inc (2651 JP), Welbe Inc (6556 JP), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), L’Occitane (973 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Exploring Prioritized Buyback/Cancellation of Samsung Electronics & Hyundai Motor Prefs

By Sanghyun Park

Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor’s high proportion of preferred stocks leads to their unusually high cost of capital, making themselves prime targets for the govt’s Corporate Value Up policy.
Policy likely focuses on aggressive share buybacks, especially preferred stock repurchase, to improve PBR. Pension funds may invest heavily in ETFs, offsetting dilution effects.
Hyundai Motor may pursue more aggressive shareholder returns due to the India listing, possibly prioritizing preferred share repurchases as it introduces risks of value transfer controversies within Korea.

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) – Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Thai Credit Bank finally ended Thailand’s long dry spell, although it wasn’t a happy ending.
For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.

Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?

By Aki Matsumoto

EPS and BPS had run in parallel since June 2022, but BPS has accelerated at a more rapid pace since May 2023, and TOPIX has risen sharply since April 2023.
Since TOPIX is more correlated with BPS than EPS, the hypothesis that “stock prices are more reliant on BPS increases, including cash increases, than on EPS” would be considered.
Investors may believe that Japanese management still needs more time to use cash effectively, and evaluate companies based on their BPS, which indicates a movement toward improved cash flow.

The Clorox Company: A Genius Strategy to Crush Digital Transformation and Improve Sales! – Major Drivers

The Clorox Company delivered second-quarter financial results for 2024 that exceeded expectations, driven largely by a strong recovery from a cyber attack that occurred in August.
The company preserved its strong brand superiority by advancing its strategies to drive top line growth and rebuild margins, as well as actively managing currency headwinds in Argentina.
Retailer inventories are being refreshed more quickly than anticipated, which is aiding the restoration of distribution and improvement of market shares.

Sirius XM Holdings Inc: Flexible Pricing and Packaging & 5 Catalysts For Future Growth! – Major Drivers

In its latest earnings, SiriusXM Holdings Inc.
discussed its strong operating and financial performance in 2023.
During the year, the company exceeded expectations, surpassing its adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow target.

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Feb 12

Most Read: DISCO Corp, Roland DG Corp, Infosys Ltd, Tesla Motors, SCREEN Holdings, Lawson Inc, ASICS Corp, Welbe Inc, SiteMinder and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive
Roland DG (6789) – Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners – Nice Premium But Too Cheap
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float
Tesla Sold A Whopping One Car in January in South Korea
Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying
Weekly Deals Digest (11 Feb) – Lawson, Benefit One, Welbe, China TCM, L’Occitane, Hollysys
Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L’Occitane
Asics (7936) | Slow Out of the Blocks
Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.
Strike Energy (STX AU) will replace Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 8 February.
The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to iShares India ETF (INDA US) and Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US).

Roland DG (6789) – Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners – Nice Premium But Too Cheap

Taiyo Pacific Partners took the original parent company (Roland Corp (7944 JP) of Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) private in 2014. It was re-listed in 2020.
Roland DG is one of the world’s leading large format digital printer manufacturers. They also make some interesting medical devices and systemic tools, and 3D milling/printing/engraving/photo impact machines.
This TOB is at a 30.1% premium. Almost a 10yr high. But it is not expensive. And even if TPP has 20%, there is a LOT of float left over.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.
The review period for the March rebalance of the S&P/ASX 200 and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.
There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.

Tesla Sold A Whopping One Car in January in South Korea

By Douglas Kim

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) sold one car in January 2024 in South Korea. In comparison, Tesla sold 1,022 vehicles in December 2023 and 13,885 units in 2023.
The key reason for the sharp plunge in vehicle sales in January has been due to the government’s slashing EV subsidies for vehicles with Chinese LFP based batteries.
Furthermore, many consumers avoided buying Tesla vehicles in January as they waited for the government’s announcements of new EV subsidies.

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.
However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Feb) – Lawson, Benefit One, Welbe, China TCM, L’Occitane, Hollysys

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and FirstCry (0172540D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Lawson Inc (2651 JP), Welbe Inc (6556 JP), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), L’Occitane (973 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L’Occitane

By David Blennerhassett

Apparently Elliott is requesting Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.
TheLawson (2651 JP) deal is not terribly surprising. It’s not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force.

Asics (7936) | Slow Out of the Blocks

By Mark Chadwick

Asics absolutely smashed the last MTP; this year they have a more measured approach
Full-Year OP guidance for FY24 is a little shy of street expectations, but this should not impact the share price
Asics has a decent runway for growth ahead and will benefit from channel mix improvements. The stock remains undervalued relative to peers

Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris