Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has launched its H Share listing at a maximum price of HK$263. Pricing will be on 19 May, and the listing on 20 May.
I discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views, CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the low AH discount can be justified. We would participate in the listing.

PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. (Antfin) is looking to raise up to US$242m via selling a 4% stake in Paytm (PAYTM IN).
Antfin has been selling off its stake since it pared around 12% in its Nov’21 IPO. As of date of writing, it had a 9.85% stake remaining in the firm.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform

By IPO Boutique

An early channel check of this deal revealed that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued 1-on-1 conversions. The books close Monday at 4pm.
The company is targeting the “next generation” of investor with encouraging growth and has the metrics to show they are meaningfully headed in the right direction.
Our sources state that want to be involved with the name and we believe an explosive debut could be on tap for this IPO.

CATL A/H Listing – More like ADR Secondary Listing than an A/H Listing – Performance & Subscription

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it compares to some of the past listings.

ESR Kendall REIT’s 150 Billion Won Capital Raise and Continued Outperformance of Korean REITs

On 9 May, ESR Kendall Square REIT (365550 KS) announced that it plans to conduct a rights offering capital increase of approximately 150 billion won.
The Korean REIT sector started to bottom out in 2023, after big underperformance in the previous three years.
The interest rate gap on the company’s expected dividend yield (5.7%) is now nearly 3% higher than the 10 year South Korean government bond yield (2.7%) which is meaningful.

Belrise Industries Pre-IPO – Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks

Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO.
Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Chagee Holdings – Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective “shortcut” of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee’s future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.

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May 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Soars on U.S.-China Detente and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Soars on U.S.-China Detente
Thematic Report: FII Inflows in India Might Not Sustain Due to Geopolitical Risks
Why the World Keeps Getting Shocked by China’s Technological Progress
Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech and SPE to Continue Higher with Nasdaq100 Back in a Bull Mkt
#145 India Insight: PVR Inox Posts Wider Q4 Loss, IndusInd Faces Audit Scrutiny, China+1 Stocks Dip
US Banks – Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Soars on U.S.-China Detente

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. stocks surged Monday as easing trade tensions with China fuelled a broad market rally; Dow up 1,160 points
Denso will sell 73.9 million shares of Renesas Electronics, reducing its stake from 4.2% to 0.1%
Nissan Motor plans to cut 20,000 jobs globally, increasing from a prior 9,000, reducing its 130,000-strong workforce by 15%

Thematic Report: FII Inflows in India Might Not Sustain Due to Geopolitical Risks

By Nimish Maheshwari

Recent positive Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) inflows into the Indian equity markets may prove short-lived, as a confluence of emerging risks and unattractive relative returns could dampen foreign investor appetite.
While April-May 2025 saw a modest US$0.5 billion in FII inflows, this followed a significant US$13.5 billion outflow during January-March 2025.
Nifty’s recent 12% rally since March 2025 leaves only a 2% upside to its year-end target of 25,000. This limited potential return is a key deterrent for FIIs.

Why the World Keeps Getting Shocked by China’s Technological Progress

By Odd Lots

Kaiser Kuo hosts the Seneca Podcast, focusing on US-China relations, Chinese macroeconomy, technology, and culture
Discussion on tech innovation in China and the process of directing talent towards more serious tech projects
Cultural differences in approach to technology between Americans and Chinese discussed

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech and SPE to Continue Higher with Nasdaq100 Back in a Bull Mkt

By Andrew Jackson

Positive US-China talks and the de-escalation of tariffs signal a major softening by both sides.
Expect momentum favourites to continue climbing as risk-on greenlights CTA factor buying.
US Pharma rebounded with Trump executive order seen as toothless and vague.

#145 India Insight: PVR Inox Posts Wider Q4 Loss, IndusInd Faces Audit Scrutiny, China+1 Stocks Dip

Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN) reports wider Q4 loss due to weak film releases, urban spending slowdown, and decline in audience turnout.
Indusind Bank (IIB IN) faces scrutiny over derivative accounting discrepancy, with auditors questioning if it should be classified as fraud.
Shares of China+1 stocks, including Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) , Welspun, and SRF Ltd (SRF IN) , dip after US-China trade deal reduces tariff uncertainty.

US Banks – Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

By Daniel Tabbush

In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher ‘loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&I through private credit.
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion – toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April

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May 13

Daily Brief Event-Driven: CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends
Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters
Renesas Electronics Block – Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great
[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals
Nissin Corp (9066 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY8,100 Is Arguably Light
PointsBet (PBH AU)/Betr (BBT AU): Mutual Due Diligence Proposed
Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends

By Sanghyun Park

Quick screen shows ₩1T+ names under 0.4x PBR — mostly retail, financials, and holdcos. Locals are keeping an eye on these with the election theme in play.
This isn’t just hopeful chatter — both parties are seriously leaning into value-up policies. With dividend tax reform and solid sector catalysts, locals see real potential in the post-election trade.
Long regional banks, hedge with KB and Shinhan. In retail, long domestic names, short China-dependent ones. For holdcos, long Hanwha and Doosan, short CJ and Kolon.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise up to JPY137bn (US$940m) by selling 73.9m shares of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) to international investors.
The indicative price range is JPY 1,812-1,848/share, a discount of 1-2.95% to Monday’s close. The placement is 4.1% of shares outstanding and is 4.7 days of ADV.
We do not expect any passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares. The earliest passive buying will take place in August and September.

Renesas Electronics Block – Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).
DENSO last sold some of its stake nearly a year ago and hence, this deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

By Travis Lundy

The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn’t mean it’s enough.
The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders.
For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal.

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY8,100 Is Arguably Light

By Arun George

Nissin Corp (9066 JP) has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY8,100 per share, a 27.6% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. However, it is light compared to precedent transaction multiples.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. A counterbid cannot be ruled out.

PointsBet (PBH AU)/Betr (BBT AU): Mutual Due Diligence Proposed

By David Blennerhassett

In Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable, I surmised, on balance, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) would afford Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) due diligence. That is now confirmed.
PointsBet initial focus will be on Betr’s scrip as it comprises 43% of the funding mix.
Separately, Mixi Inc (2121 JP)‘s Scheme Booklet was dispatched on the 8th May, with a shareholder vote on the 12th June. Mixi has matching rights under its SID.

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.
MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.
Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.

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May 13

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done
Asia File : Risk Reward Asymmetrical
The Beat Ideas: KDDL- Precision Engineering with Luxury Retail
Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation
Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead
Sula Vineyards Q4FY25: What Is Hidden?
Green Dot’s $2 Billion Opportunity: Why PE Giants and Strategics Are Circling This Embedded Finance Pioneer?
Shareholder Returns of Japanese Trading Companies Invested By Buffett Vs Top Korean Trading/Holdcos
Apple Faces Crosswinds: $900M Tariff Hit, Legal Storms, and AI Lag – What’s Next?
Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT)

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.

Asia File : Risk Reward Asymmetrical

By Punit Khanna

Trades below Cash and liquidation value and has a profitable operating business
Operations have been consistently profitable and free cash flow generating
Industry is not growing but getting consolidated. Market is pricing in a business to become zero

The Beat Ideas: KDDL- Precision Engineering with Luxury Retail

KDDL’s precision engineering division, Eigen, is expanding its manufacturing capacity with a new facility and further upgrades planned, aiming to capture high-growth sectors like aerospace, automotive, and medical devices.
This expansion enhances KDDL’s competitive edge in precision engineering, a high-margin segment, and aligns with the company’s goal of making Eigen a significant revenue contributor, targeting 40-50% of manufacturing revenue.
The focus on precision engineering and premium retail through Ethos positions KDDL for sustained growth, balancing stable manufacturing revenue with high-margin luxury retail.

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers.

Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead

Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2025 results on Friday which fell below consensus estimates. However, earnings were in line with the company’s guidance.
Labour markets have begun to cool off with concerns over potential impact of trade wars and economic uncertainty, and the company expects top line to decline in FY03/2026E.
Though the company’s monetisation efforts have paid off, we expect Recruit’s earnings to remain under pressure and think there’s opportunity to gain on the Short side.

Sula Vineyards Q4FY25: What Is Hidden?

By Nitin Mangal

In a surprising turn of events, the management of Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) has cancelled earnings call for Q4FY25 citing Indo-Pak conflict after posting bad quarterly numbers.
Receivable cycle has further elongated to all time high since the company became public.
Revenue growth yet remains muted post company became public in 2022.

Green Dot’s $2 Billion Opportunity: Why PE Giants and Strategics Are Circling This Embedded Finance Pioneer?

Green Dot Corporation’s latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 illustrate both positive momentum and areas requiring focus.
The company reported an impressive 24% increase in adjusted revenue and a 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA, outperforming internal expectations.
Growth was observed across all three operating segments, indicating a cohesive and forward-moving strategy.

Shareholder Returns of Japanese Trading Companies Invested By Buffett Vs Top Korean Trading/Holdcos

“In the next 50 years… we won’t give a thought to selling those [Japanese trading companies]…. Japan’s record has been extraordinary.” (Warren Buffett)
In this insight, we provide detailed comparisons of the five major Japanese trading companies and five major Korean holdcos/trading companies.
Japanese trading companies have higher points for market cap, ROE, DPS increase, and shares cancellation. Korean holdcos have higher points for dividend yield, deb/equity ratio, ROIC, and valuations.

Apple Faces Crosswinds: $900M Tariff Hit, Legal Storms, and AI Lag – What’s Next?

Apple reported strong financial results for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025, achieving revenue of $95.4 billion, which represents a 5% increase compared to the previous year.
This growth was at the high end of the company’s guidance range, and the diluted earnings per share stood at $1.65, marking an 8% year-over-year increase and setting a record for the March quarter.
The company’s Services segment achieved an all-time revenue high, with a 12% growth year-on-year, indicating robust performance across Apple’s diverse service offerings.

Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT)

By Michael Fritzell

Taiwan’s Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT — US$1.7 billion) is the world’s largest bicycle manufacturer.
It’s based in the Taiwanese city of Taichung, which has become somewhat of the center of the global bicycle industry.
From there, it controls nine factories around the world, selling about 6 million bicycles a year via many thousands of distributors in 50 countries.

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May 13

Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: Hypothetically and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings…
Oil: How Low Will It Go?
Gold for the 21st Century Episode 7 | Michael DiRienzo, President & CEO, The Silver Institute
US Rates – Deal or no deal?
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand
Egypt, May 12th 2025,
Japanese Economy – April 20, 2025
Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG
Global FX: Historic trade deals and take-aways for currencies

Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings…

Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuries
International investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. Treasuries
Potential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Oil: How Low Will It Go?

By Alastair Newton

Riyadh is rapidly reducing cuts to oil output, perceived as an attempt to push out high-cost producers like US shale.
The success of this strategy is uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of tariff-related economic factors.
This situation mirrors the uncertainty faced during the 2014-16 period, despite changes in crude oil prices.

Gold for the 21st Century Episode 7 | Michael DiRienzo, President & CEO, The Silver Institute

By SmarterMarkets™

Smarter Markets podcast discusses outlook for silver in energy transition and investor portfolios with Michael Duranzo, President and CEO at the Silver Institute
Recent conversation at India Silver Conference focused on silver’s underperformance compared to gold, supply deficit, and opportunities for investment in silver market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates – Deal or no deal?

Fed’s focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meeting
Market optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reduction
Forecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertainty

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output

WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.
The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.

Egypt, May 12th 2025,

By Denis Collot

Let’s not join the crowd of those happy to bash on experts, specialists, economists of all kind.
It is true though for example that 3 years ago, after Putin launched its special military operation in Ukraine and the following harsh sanctions, most predicted that Russia’s economy would shrink by 10 to 15 % and the currency to collapse.
It did go down by ..1.5 % in the first year and then recovered nicely showing growth for the past two years above 4 % ; the currency initially weakened and then recovered stronger.

Japanese Economy – April 20, 2025

In the third quarter of 2024, Japan’s economy grew by 0.90% (QoQ).
This growth was primarily driven by an increase in real private final consumption expenditure, which rose by approximately 3.58% QoQ.
Additionally, real government final consumption expenditure contributed to the growth, increasing by about 2.05% QoQ.

Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG

By Sameer Taneja

Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact.
Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton.

Global FX: Historic trade deals and take-aways for currencies

Initial bearish outlook on Asian effects due to President Trump’s tariff storm
Unexpected multi sigma moves in Asian currencies, sparking speculation of currency accord
Uncertainty surrounding flow types, behavior of Asian exporters, and Asian central banks, with key questions hanging over China’s influence on Asian FX appreciation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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May 13

Most Read: BYD, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Pop Mart International Group L, Cipla Ltd, Renesas Electronics, Nissin Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: BYD (1211 HK) Could Replace China Literature (772 HK); Huge Trade
CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)
CATL A/H Listing – High Quality, Large Size Make It Unavoidable but Needs a Discount
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks
Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters
CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK): Valuation Insights
Renesas Electronics Block – Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great
CATL: Key Highlights in 1Q 2025 and PHIP Updates on Hong Kong Listing
[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: BYD (1211 HK) Could Replace China Literature (772 HK); Huge Trade

The review period for the June rebalance of the HSTECH INDEX ended on 31 March, the changes will be announced on 16 May and implemented on 6 June.
Following the launch of the God’s Eye ADAS, BYD (1211 HK) could become eligible for index inclusion after meeting the Autonomous theme and Innovation screening.
The inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) in the index could result in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index in June.

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

The review period for the June rebalance of the HSCEI ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.
Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.

CATL A/H Listing – High Quality, Large Size Make It Unavoidable but Needs a Discount

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise up to JPY137bn (US$940m) by selling 73.9m shares of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) to international investors.
The indicative price range is JPY 1,812-1,848/share, a discount of 1-2.95% to Monday’s close. The placement is 4.1% of shares outstanding and is 4.7 days of ADV.
We do not expect any passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares. The earliest passive buying will take place in August and September.

CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has launched its H Share listing at a maximum price of HK$263. Pricing will be on 19 May, and the listing on 20 May.
I discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views, CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the low AH discount can be justified. We would participate in the listing.

Renesas Electronics Block – Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).
DENSO last sold some of its stake nearly a year ago and hence, this deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

CATL: Key Highlights in 1Q 2025 and PHIP Updates on Hong Kong Listing

CATL reported a 6.2% YoY increase in revenue in 1Q 2025. EV battery sales rose 14.0% YoY driven by healthy demand offset by lower ESS battery sales.
CATL provided discussions about ongoing tariff disputes. It mentioned that the overall impact and outcome remain uncertain. The U.S. market accounts for about 7% of CATL’s total EV battery business.
We maintain a Positive View of CATL. Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap.

[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

By Travis Lundy

The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn’t mean it’s enough.
The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders.
For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal.

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May 13

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Iron Ore, Barton Gold Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

PointsBet (PBH AU)/Betr (BBT AU): Mutual Due Diligence Proposed
Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG
Barton Gold — Firing on all cylinders

PointsBet (PBH AU)/Betr (BBT AU): Mutual Due Diligence Proposed

By David Blennerhassett

In Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable, I surmised, on balance, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) would afford Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) due diligence. That is now confirmed.
PointsBet initial focus will be on Betr’s scrip as it comprises 43% of the funding mix.
Separately, Mixi Inc (2121 JP)‘s Scheme Booklet was dispatched on the 8th May, with a shareholder vote on the 12th June. Mixi has matching rights under its SID.

Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG

By Sameer Taneja

Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact.
Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton.

Barton Gold — Firing on all cylinders

By Edison Investment Research

As promised, on 5 May, Barton announced the results of its optimised scoping study on its Tunkillia project in South Australia. Relative to its initial scoping study (July 2024), capex was down 8.0%, while unit oxide and sulphide processing costs were 24.4% and 18.0% lower, respectively, as more realistic ore hardnesses were considered for grinding purposes. The life of the operation has been extended from 7.7 to 10 years, with the result that the amount of payable gold produced has increased by 13.1%. In conjunction with a 42.9% increase in the gold price to A$5,000/oz (c US$3,333/oz), these changes (among others) resulted in an increase in pre-tax project NPV7.5 of 176.6% to A$1,416m and an 33.2 percentage point increase in the internal rate of return to 73.2% (A$781m and 48.3% at A$4,000/oz Au, respectively). Using the same inputs, our financial model generates an NPV7.5 within 6% of Barton’s, from which we estimate a post-tax project NPV7.5 of A$895.9m, or A$4.09/share.

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May 13

Daily Brief South Korea: Doosan Corp, ESR Kendall Square REIT, LG Corp, Celltrion Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends
ESR Kendall REIT’s 150 Billion Won Capital Raise and Continued Outperformance of Korean REITs
Shareholder Returns of Japanese Trading Companies Invested By Buffett Vs Top Korean Trading/Holdcos
Celltrion Inc (068270 KS): Sequentially Weak 1Q25 Result; Momentum to Accelerate in 2H

Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends

By Sanghyun Park

Quick screen shows ₩1T+ names under 0.4x PBR — mostly retail, financials, and holdcos. Locals are keeping an eye on these with the election theme in play.
This isn’t just hopeful chatter — both parties are seriously leaning into value-up policies. With dividend tax reform and solid sector catalysts, locals see real potential in the post-election trade.
Long regional banks, hedge with KB and Shinhan. In retail, long domestic names, short China-dependent ones. For holdcos, long Hanwha and Doosan, short CJ and Kolon.

ESR Kendall REIT’s 150 Billion Won Capital Raise and Continued Outperformance of Korean REITs

On 9 May, ESR Kendall Square REIT (365550 KS) announced that it plans to conduct a rights offering capital increase of approximately 150 billion won.
The Korean REIT sector started to bottom out in 2023, after big underperformance in the previous three years.
The interest rate gap on the company’s expected dividend yield (5.7%) is now nearly 3% higher than the 10 year South Korean government bond yield (2.7%) which is meaningful.

Shareholder Returns of Japanese Trading Companies Invested By Buffett Vs Top Korean Trading/Holdcos

“In the next 50 years… we won’t give a thought to selling those [Japanese trading companies]…. Japan’s record has been extraordinary.” (Warren Buffett)
In this insight, we provide detailed comparisons of the five major Japanese trading companies and five major Korean holdcos/trading companies.
Japanese trading companies have higher points for market cap, ROE, DPS increase, and shares cancellation. Korean holdcos have higher points for dividend yield, deb/equity ratio, ROIC, and valuations.

Celltrion Inc (068270 KS): Sequentially Weak 1Q25 Result; Momentum to Accelerate in 2H

By Tina Banerjee

Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) announced 1Q25 result, with revenue and operating profit decreasing 21% and 24%, QoQ, respectively. Net profit more than halved in 1Q25 compared with 4Q24.
Sequential improvement in gross profit margin is one key positive highlight of 1Q25 result. Higher contribution of new products aided gross profit margin. This trend is expected to continue.
Celltrion reaffirmed 2025 revenue guidance of KRW5T. Revenue is expected to be moderate in 1H25 and strong in the 2H25. Profitability improvement will be slower than expected earlier.

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May 13

Daily Brief United States: Etoro Group, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Green Dot Corp Class A, USD, Apple , Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Meta and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform
Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings…
Gold for the 21st Century Episode 7 | Michael DiRienzo, President & CEO, The Silver Institute
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand
Green Dot’s $2 Billion Opportunity: Why PE Giants and Strategics Are Circling This Embedded Finance Pioneer?
US Rates – Deal or no deal?
Apple Faces Crosswinds: $900M Tariff Hit, Legal Storms, and AI Lag – What’s Next?
Interactive Brokers: Margin Masters – [Business Breakdowns, EP.216]
META PLATFORMS, INC. – Equity Research Flash Note – April 4, 2025

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform

By IPO Boutique

An early channel check of this deal revealed that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued 1-on-1 conversions. The books close Monday at 4pm.
The company is targeting the “next generation” of investor with encouraging growth and has the metrics to show they are meaningfully headed in the right direction.
Our sources state that want to be involved with the name and we believe an explosive debut could be on tap for this IPO.

Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings…

Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuries
International investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. Treasuries
Potential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Gold for the 21st Century Episode 7 | Michael DiRienzo, President & CEO, The Silver Institute

By SmarterMarkets™

Smarter Markets podcast discusses outlook for silver in energy transition and investor portfolios with Michael Duranzo, President and CEO at the Silver Institute
Recent conversation at India Silver Conference focused on silver’s underperformance compared to gold, supply deficit, and opportunities for investment in silver market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output

WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.
The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand

For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.

Green Dot’s $2 Billion Opportunity: Why PE Giants and Strategics Are Circling This Embedded Finance Pioneer?

Green Dot Corporation’s latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 illustrate both positive momentum and areas requiring focus.
The company reported an impressive 24% increase in adjusted revenue and a 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA, outperforming internal expectations.
Growth was observed across all three operating segments, indicating a cohesive and forward-moving strategy.

US Rates – Deal or no deal?

Fed’s focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meeting
Market optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reduction
Forecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertainty

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Apple Faces Crosswinds: $900M Tariff Hit, Legal Storms, and AI Lag – What’s Next?

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Apple reported strong financial results for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025, achieving revenue of $95.4 billion, which represents a 5% increase compared to the previous year.
This growth was at the high end of the company’s guidance range, and the diluted earnings per share stood at $1.65, marking an 8% year-over-year increase and setting a record for the March quarter.
The company’s Services segment achieved an all-time revenue high, with a 12% growth year-on-year, indicating robust performance across Apple’s diverse service offerings.

Interactive Brokers: Margin Masters – [Business Breakdowns, EP.216]

By Business Breakdowns

Business Breakdowns is a podcast series that explores deep conversations with investors and operators about a single business, such as Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
Interactive Brokers was founded in 1978 by Thomas Peterffy, an immigrant from Hungary who revolutionized the digitization of financial markets through automated trading
IBKR’s business model includes revenue streams from trading commissions and net interest margin, offering low-cost access to global markets and sophisticated trading tools for traders and institutional investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

META PLATFORMS, INC. – Equity Research Flash Note – April 4, 2025

Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue range at around $205,590 million and for 2026 at around $258,431 million.
The company’s annual revenue reached $164,501 million in 2024 compared to $134,902 million in 2023, posting an increase by 21.94%.
META’s gross profit for FY 2024 was $134,340 million, increased by 23.31% compared to $108,943 million for the corresponding period of 2023.

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May 13

Daily Brief India: Paytm, KDDL Ltd, Bharat Electronics, Tata Steel Ltd, Sula Vineyards , Belrise Industries, Deep Industries, Hindalco Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
The Beat Ideas: KDDL- Precision Engineering with Luxury Retail
BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done
Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation
Sula Vineyards Q4FY25: What Is Hidden?
Belrise Industries Pre-IPO – Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks
Deep Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Strong Topline Growth Amid One-Time Clean-Up
Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. (Antfin) is looking to raise up to US$242m via selling a 4% stake in Paytm (PAYTM IN).
Antfin has been selling off its stake since it pared around 12% in its Nov’21 IPO. As of date of writing, it had a 9.85% stake remaining in the firm.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

The Beat Ideas: KDDL- Precision Engineering with Luxury Retail

KDDL’s precision engineering division, Eigen, is expanding its manufacturing capacity with a new facility and further upgrades planned, aiming to capture high-growth sectors like aerospace, automotive, and medical devices.
This expansion enhances KDDL’s competitive edge in precision engineering, a high-margin segment, and aligns with the company’s goal of making Eigen a significant revenue contributor, targeting 40-50% of manufacturing revenue.
The focus on precision engineering and premium retail through Ethos positions KDDL for sustained growth, balancing stable manufacturing revenue with high-margin luxury retail.

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers.

Sula Vineyards Q4FY25: What Is Hidden?

By Nitin Mangal

In a surprising turn of events, the management of Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) has cancelled earnings call for Q4FY25 citing Indo-Pak conflict after posting bad quarterly numbers.
Receivable cycle has further elongated to all time high since the company became public.
Revenue growth yet remains muted post company became public in 2022.

Belrise Industries Pre-IPO – Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks

Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO.
Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Deep Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Strong Topline Growth Amid One-Time Clean-Up

Deep Industries (DEEPI IN) reported 39.7% YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY25; EBITDA margins stood resilient at 36.1% despite a INR 251 crore exceptional loss due to asset clean-up.
New offshore contracts (INR 281 crore barge deal), and Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) PEC, and a growing INR 2,960 crore order book reinforce the company’s revenue visibility.
Despite one-off noise in Q4, Deep’s core operations are intact. FY26 guidance of 25–30% revenue growth looks achievable, backed by execution tailwinds.

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility