Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Context: On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%, double the anticipated 25 basis points.
The NIFTY 50 Index fluctuated initially but later stabilized at a 1.0% gain, while the NSE Nifty Bank Index rose 1.5%. At-the-money implied volatility changed little, while the skew rotated.
This Insight explains the RBI’s bold policy move, market reactions, and limitations of predictive models in navigating central bank decisions.

Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rallied after RBI cuts key policy rate by 50 bps to 5.50%(but RBI governor said there is limited policy space from here).
Inflation forecast was cut to 3.7%; GDP growth forecast retained at 6.5, but Trump’s trade tariffs and the prospect of a global economic slowdown are generating uncertainty.
The NIFTY was already moving up in the last 2 days and accelerated sharply on Friday. But our model signals that the index is not overbought, it can go higher.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

By Tina Banerjee

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported a 11% YoY increase in net profit to INR5B on an 8% YoY growth in revenue to INR28B in Q4FY25. Domestic business drove overall performance.
Revenue from domestic market increased 12% YoY to INR15.5B, led by outperformance in focus therapies, aided by strong new launch performance. Torrent continued to outperform IPM.
The company is expanding margins by 75–100bps historically. With improving traction in U.S., double-digit growth in Brazil, and continued strong performance in India, the trend is expected to continue.

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Jun 08

Daily Brief ECM: China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene’s Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing
Didi Global Q125 Results | Company Should Move to List Shares While Earnings & Conditions Favorable

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene’s Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Summit’s chances of being sold have decreased significantly. Since Summit does not have enough funds to promote multiple large-scale Phase III trials, the outlook of Summit/Akeso will become increasingly passive.
The public statements of Zhao Yan from Bloomage have raised doubts in the market about the prospects of collagen and Giant Biogene. Below, we shared some differentiated views on this.
The IPO pricing of Newtrend is HK$18.9-20.9/share. We think Newtrend is overvalued considering the “price war” and oversupply issue. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Anhui Jinhe Industrial (002597 CH).

Didi Global Q125 Results | Company Should Move to List Shares While Earnings & Conditions Favorable

By Daniel Hellberg

Didi reported solid top-line growth, improving core margins (and OpCF) in Q125
Drivers of Q125 top-line growth were broad-based, but note F/X impact on International
We believe Didi should move to re-list shares while earnings & conditions are supportive

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Jun 08

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition
Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)
Snowflake’s $250M “Crunchy” Bet: How Two Smart Acquisitions Are Fueling Its AI War With Databricks!
Procter & Gamble (P&G)’s 7
Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work
Arista Networks’ $1.5B AI Jackpot: How a “Has-Been” Became Wall Street’s Newest Favorite!
Viking Holdings Is Quietly Becoming the Hottest Cruise Stock — Why Smart Money Thinks It’s About to Soar!
Bristol Myers Just Dropped $11.1 Billion on BioNTech: Is This the Pivot That Transforms Its Oncology Pipeline?
ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition

By Douglas Kim

I recently visited Daiso near Seoul Station. Daiso is one of the few off-line stores that has been crushing the competition in Korea in the past several years.
Amid continued weak economy in Korea in the past several years, Daiso has thrived through its detailed execution of focus on low priced products with highest value to consumers.
Able C&C (078520 KS) is a prime example a company capitalizing on the strong demand for cosmetic products at Daiso.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)

By Patrick Liao

Intel Corp (INTC US) CEO Lip-Bu Tan was setting two guideline that “build the best products” and “satisfy customers.”
Going forward, no new product development project will be approved—nor will engineering resources be allocated—unless it can demonstrate a projected gross margin of at least 50%.
In the coming months, an internal tug-of-war is expected to unfold within the company—between engineers and senior executives

Snowflake’s $250M “Crunchy” Bet: How Two Smart Acquisitions Are Fueling Its AI War With Databricks!

Snowflake has taken a bold strategic leap in its battle for AI supremacy by acquiring Crunchy Data, a leading PostgreSQL-based database company, for approximately $250 million.
Coming shortly after Databricks’ $1 billion acquisition of Neon, this move signals an intensifying war for enterprise customers who want to build AI agents using their own data.
Crunchy Data’s roughly 100 employees are set to join Snowflake as the company integrates Crunchy into a new product offering called Snowflake Postgres.

Procter & Gamble (P&G)’s 7

Procter & Gamble, the global powerhouse behind brands like Tide, Pampers, and Gillette, has announced one of its most significant organizational shake-ups in recent years.
The company plans to cut 7,000 nonmanufacturing jobs globally—roughly 15% of its non-factory workforce—over the next two years.
This move is part of a broader noncore restructuring program estimated to cost between $1 billion and $1.6 billion before tax, with about 25% of that in noncash charges.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

By Tina Banerjee

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported a 11% YoY increase in net profit to INR5B on an 8% YoY growth in revenue to INR28B in Q4FY25. Domestic business drove overall performance.
Revenue from domestic market increased 12% YoY to INR15.5B, led by outperformance in focus therapies, aided by strong new launch performance. Torrent continued to outperform IPM.
The company is expanding margins by 75–100bps historically. With improving traction in U.S., double-digit growth in Brazil, and continued strong performance in India, the trend is expected to continue.

Arista Networks’ $1.5B AI Jackpot: How a “Has-Been” Became Wall Street’s Newest Favorite!

Once considered vulnerable to competitive pressures and margin erosion, Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) has staged a remarkable comeback that has turned heads on Wall Street.
After seeing its stock plunge nearly 50% earlier this year due to fears around tariffs and intensified white-box competition, Arista has bounced back with vengeance.
Now trading near $95, the stock has rallied on the back of a robust Q1 2025 print, confident full-year guidance, and its growing role in powering AI infrastructure for tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle.

Viking Holdings Is Quietly Becoming the Hottest Cruise Stock — Why Smart Money Thinks It’s About to Soar!

Viking recently reported its first-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a solid financial and operational performance.
The company experienced a 7.1% increase in net yields alongside a 14.9% capacity boost compared to the previous year.
Total revenue reached nearly $900 million, approximately three times higher than in 2019, reflecting strong demand for Viking’s offerings and the disciplined implementation of its growth strategy.

Bristol Myers Just Dropped $11.1 Billion on BioNTech: Is This the Pivot That Transforms Its Oncology Pipeline?

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) has made headlines with its recent $11.1 billion collaboration deal with German biotech BioNTech, a strategic move that underscores the company’s aggressive pivot toward growth in oncology.
The centerpiece of this deal is BNT327, a PD-L1/VEGF-A bispecific antibody, which BMS sees as a next-generation immuno-oncology asset capable of reshaping the cancer treatment landscape.
With an upfront payment of $1.5 billion and $2 billion guaranteed through 2028, the agreement also includes a potential $7.6 billion in milestone payments.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

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Jun 08

Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index, Taishin Financial Holding, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown
Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun25 Results: 100% Hit Rate; Positioned for High-Impact Sector-Neutral Trades
ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown

Context: On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%, double the anticipated 25 basis points.
The NIFTY 50 Index fluctuated initially but later stabilized at a 1.0% gain, while the NSE Nifty Bank Index rose 1.5%. At-the-money implied volatility changed little, while the skew rotated.
This Insight explains the RBI’s bold policy move, market reactions, and limitations of predictive models in navigating central bank decisions.

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun25 Results: 100% Hit Rate; Positioned for High-Impact Sector-Neutral Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 6th June 2025.
There will be one ADD/DEL for T50, two ADDs/DELs for T100, and five ADDs/DELs for TDIV.
All of these are exactly in line with our final expectations.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Jun 08

Most Read: BYD, Solar Industries India, Henderson Land Development, Pop Mart International Group L, Bluefocus Communication Group Co, Ltd., Keppel DC REIT, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Unimicron Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman
Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down
Japan Weekly | Geopolitics Rule as Semis Shine and Autos Stumble
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Elite Materials Added (But Bigger Sell Flows Elsewhere)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).

STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) will replace Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) in the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) at the close on 20 June.
The SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) will need to trade between 3-5 days of ADV in the add and delete.
The ETF trading could help Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) break out of its short-term downtrend and could add further pressure on Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman, Wisetech Global, Rio Tinto, Treasury Wine Estates, Gpt, National Australia Bank.

Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

During January-April 2025, exports at 452,866 tons, down 11% YoY
January-April 2025 exports value at US$872.78 mn, up 20.4% YoY
Vietnam Rubber Group reports net profit of US$45.4 mn in Q1 2025

Japan Weekly | Geopolitics Rule as Semis Shine and Autos Stumble

By Mark Chadwick

Japanese equities dipped as geopolitical tensions weighed on autos, though semiconductor stocks surged after Nvidia regained its crown as top global firm.
Japan’s Q1 capex jumped 6.4% amid pre-tariff investment, but weak household spending and falling real wages signaled persistent domestic demand fragility.
Toyota Industries fell 10% after unveiling a privatization plan priced below market expectations, raising investor governance concerns despite likely deal approval.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Elite Materials Added (But Bigger Sell Flows Elsewhere)

Elite Material (2383 TT) will be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in June and will replace Unimicron Technology (3037 TT).
ETF AUM has now crossed US$20bn and passive trackers will need to buy 1x ADV in Elite Material (2383 TT) and sell 1.2x ADV in Unimicron Technology (3037 TT).
Importantly, Elite Material (2383 TT)‘s stock price rally results in a lower dividend yield and the stock will be deleted from another ETF where the passive selling is much larger.

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Jun 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soul Patts/ Brickworks, Spartan Resources, PointsBet, ESR Group, Tam Jai

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown

Context: On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%, double the anticipated 25 basis points.
The NIFTY 50 Index fluctuated initially but later stabilized at a 1.0% gain, while the NSE Nifty Bank Index rose 1.5%. At-the-money implied volatility changed little, while the skew rotated.
This Insight explains the RBI’s bold policy move, market reactions, and limitations of predictive models in navigating central bank decisions.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

By David Blennerhassett

The value realisation of selling cross-holdings should not be contingent on selling your shares to someone else too cheaply but that is exactly what Toyota is proposing here.
OCBC is doing the right thing. Although a 17.8% bump in terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)‘s minorities is probably not enough to dislodge Palliser.
Cosette has lodged a termination notice, which Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) rejects. It’s anyone’s guess whether this saga concludes with a price cut; or Cosette walking.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soul Patts/ Brickworks, Spartan Resources, PointsBet, ESR Group, Tam Jai

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: the Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) / Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU)merger; and Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)‘s Exit Offer.
Key updates/news took place on: Spartan Resources (SPR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), ESR Group (1821 HK), and Tam Jai International (2217 HK).

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Jun 08

Daily Brief South Korea: Able C&C and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition

By Douglas Kim

I recently visited Daiso near Seoul Station. Daiso is one of the few off-line stores that has been crushing the competition in Korea in the past several years.
Amid continued weak economy in Korea in the past several years, Daiso has thrived through its detailed execution of focus on low priced products with highest value to consumers.
Able C&C (078520 KS) is a prime example a company capitalizing on the strong demand for cosmetic products at Daiso.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
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Jun 08

Daily Brief Health Care: Healius , Newtrend Technology, Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity ASX Jun25 Results: All Expected ADDs/DELs Correct, One Extra ADD/DEL, LONGs up 5% Vs SHORTs
China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene’s Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing
Bristol Myers Just Dropped $11.1 Billion on BioNTech: Is This the Pivot That Transforms Its Oncology Pipeline?
Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

Quiddity ASX Jun25 Results: All Expected ADDs/DELs Correct, One Extra ADD/DEL, LONGs up 5% Vs SHORTs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the June 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th June 2025.
There are 12 index changes collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, and ASX 200.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene’s Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Summit’s chances of being sold have decreased significantly. Since Summit does not have enough funds to promote multiple large-scale Phase III trials, the outlook of Summit/Akeso will become increasingly passive.
The public statements of Zhao Yan from Bloomage have raised doubts in the market about the prospects of collagen and Giant Biogene. Below, we shared some differentiated views on this.
The IPO pricing of Newtrend is HK$18.9-20.9/share. We think Newtrend is overvalued considering the “price war” and oversupply issue. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Anhui Jinhe Industrial (002597 CH).

Bristol Myers Just Dropped $11.1 Billion on BioNTech: Is This the Pivot That Transforms Its Oncology Pipeline?