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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 15th): Gigabyte Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 15th): Gigabyte Tech, Novatek, Faraday Tech, Quanta Computer

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 15th): Gigabyte Tech, Novatek, Faraday Tech, Quanta Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 15th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Gigabyte Tech, Novatek, Faraday Tech, Quanta Computer, Giant Manufactur, Nanya Tech.

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Dec 17
0

Most Read: Bharat Heavy Electricals, DISCO Corp, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Posco DX, Abacus Storage King, Vietnam Dairy Products JSC, Hankook & Company, Vinda International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal
  • MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes
  • The Psychology of Money: A Book Review
  • MBK Partners Raises Tender Offer Price of Hankook and Co to 24,000 Won
  • Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Recruit, Infroneer, Glosel
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

By Brian Freitas

  • There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
  • There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
  • There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

By Brian Freitas

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer

By Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU) in December but there are float and capping changes.
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) is the biggest sell and is due to a drop in float, a reversal of the excessively high float assigned at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% and will result in a one-way trade of A$26m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
  • The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN). 

The Psychology of Money: A Book Review

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, I review a fantastic book written by Morgan Housel called The Psychology of Money (published in 2020). 
  • “The most important part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to the plan.” 
  • Three parts of the book were particularly outstanding including letter to author’s son, the story of Rick Guerin, and how mice helped the Russians to defeat the mighty German army. 

MBK Partners Raises Tender Offer Price of Hankook and Co to 24,000 Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After market close on 15 December, MBK Partners raised the tender offer price of Hankook & Company by 20% to 24,000 won, which is now 51.4% higher than current price. 
  • With Cho Yang-Rae’s recent acquisition of shares, Cho Hyun-beom, Cho Yang-rae, and related parties now own about 45.6% of Hankook & Co, up from 42.9% previously. 
  • MBK Partners has requested an official investigation by the FSS, claiming that Cho Yang-rae and HY have violated the Capital Markets Act by recently purchasing shares of Hankook & Co.

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Recruit, Infroneer, Glosel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Japanese equities made minor gains as US Fed indicated potential rate cuts in 2024. BOJ next week, but no changes anticipated
  • Major Movers: Outsourcing leaps on MBO; Advantest +15% as Semicon Japan gets underway; Ibiden beneficiary of improved tech sentiment
  • Activist Watch: New positions for Murakami in Glosel; Nippon Active Value watching Fuji Media more closely; fresh interest in Goodspeed, the car dealer

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief United States: NFT and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The Year Ahead For Gaming 2024 (Executive Summary)

The Year Ahead For Gaming 2024 (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • Blockchain gaming peaks industry interest with unprecedented content quality. With the combined market cap of almost 200 leading projects being less than DOGE, there is ample room for future growth.
  • In 2023, 133 deals closed, securing $1.1B in funding, marking a 66% drop from 2022. Anticipating a reversal in the next ~6 months due to increased attention and capital.
  • High Web3 project costs drive competition for <1M gaming-inclined wallets. A battle for player liquidity will favor projects with versatile user bases, efficiently funneling between games for market dominance.

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief India: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King’s Ransom

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King’s Ransom

By Mohshin Aziz

  • InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) (Indigo) has turnaround and is on path to achieve record profits in FY2024 on strong demand, stable FX and lower jet fuel prices 
  • However, engine problems will hurt capacity deployment in 4QFY24 and FY2025, and the engine manufacturer has been very vague and unreliable in presenting its remedial plans 
  • Share price near all-time high and valuations (PE, EV/EBITDAR) are expensive compared to global LCCs. TP of INR2,513 (14% DOWNSIDE) pegged to 15x FY2025 PE (top-end LCC cycle)  

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief China: Vinda International, Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , KE Holdings , Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal, NRDL Negotiation Result, Haoyuan
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
  • [KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24.5) TP Change]: Policy Stimulus Drive up near Term Sales
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal, NRDL Negotiation Result, Haoyuan

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 2023 NRDL negotiation results were released. We’re seeing the rules of NRDL renewal negotiations tilt toward innovative drugs, leading to lower price reduction, but there has been no fundamental change.
  • The record-breaking US$8.4 billion deal involving BMS and Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) (SystImmune) is not without risk, though. We still recommend to remain rational.
  • The issue facing Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress (688131 CH) is higher revenue but lower margins. Valuation will likely experience further declines due to lock-up expiry and share reduction.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
  • The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
  • There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24.5) TP Change]: Policy Stimulus Drive up near Term Sales

By Eric Wen

  • Beijing and Shanghai laid out long waited stimulus policies on property market, include 1) lower property down payments ratio;2) lower mortgage loan rate;
  • 3) lower recognition standard for ordinary home. The key is to encourage households to add leverage.
  • We treat the financial stimulus as one-off positive shock to the home transaction markets in the two cities,  especially benefiting 1Q24 sales for Beike due to…

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Japan: Benefit One Inc, Denso Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) – Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co
  • ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Mankind, Axis, Merdeka, DOMS, India Shelter, Inox

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) – Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

By Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co

By David Blennerhassett

ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Mankind, Axis, Merdeka, DOMS, India Shelter, Inox

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • A few large placements in India, along with Denso Corp (6902 JP) pricing, kept the market ticking this week.
  • In the IPO space, India saw a flurry of launches, as companies and banker try to cash-in on the market frenzy.

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Mankind, Axis, Merdeka, DOMS, India Shelter, Inox

ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Mankind, Axis, Merdeka, DOMS, India Shelter, Inox

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • A few large placements in India, along with Denso Corp (6902 JP) pricing, kept the market ticking this week.
  • In the IPO space, India saw a flurry of launches, as companies and banker try to cash-in on the market frenzy.

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co
  • Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) – Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Sigma Health, Vinda, Outsourcing, Allkem, Costa, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
  • The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
  • There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) – Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

By Arun George

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal, NRDL Negotiation Result, Haoyuan
  • [KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24.5) TP Change]: Policy Stimulus Drive up near Term Sales
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance
  • Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King’s Ransom
  • Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Prescription Drugs Took a Breather in Q3; Poised to Rebound

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal, NRDL Negotiation Result, Haoyuan

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 2023 NRDL negotiation results were released. We’re seeing the rules of NRDL renewal negotiations tilt toward innovative drugs, leading to lower price reduction, but there has been no fundamental change.
  • The record-breaking US$8.4 billion deal involving BMS and Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) (SystImmune) is not without risk, though. We still recommend to remain rational.
  • The issue facing Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress (688131 CH) is higher revenue but lower margins. Valuation will likely experience further declines due to lock-up expiry and share reduction.

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24.5) TP Change]: Policy Stimulus Drive up near Term Sales

By Eric Wen

  • Beijing and Shanghai laid out long waited stimulus policies on property market, include 1) lower property down payments ratio;2) lower mortgage loan rate;
  • 3) lower recognition standard for ordinary home. The key is to encourage households to add leverage.
  • We treat the financial stimulus as one-off positive shock to the home transaction markets in the two cities,  especially benefiting 1Q24 sales for Beike due to…

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.
  • AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.
  • According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King’s Ransom

By Mohshin Aziz

  • InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) (Indigo) has turnaround and is on path to achieve record profits in FY2024 on strong demand, stable FX and lower jet fuel prices 
  • However, engine problems will hurt capacity deployment in 4QFY24 and FY2025, and the engine manufacturer has been very vague and unreliable in presenting its remedial plans 
  • Share price near all-time high and valuations (PE, EV/EBITDAR) are expensive compared to global LCCs. TP of INR2,513 (14% DOWNSIDE) pegged to 15x FY2025 PE (top-end LCC cycle)  

Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Prescription Drugs Took a Breather in Q3; Poised to Rebound

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 3Q23, Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS) reported 15% YoY growth in revenue to KRW208B, driven by 7% YoY growth in prescription drugs, the slowest growth in the last three years.
  • Prescription drug revenue growth slowed due to the huge shortfall in revenue from the diabetes drug Trulicity caused by supply shortage. We expect slowdown in Trulicity revenue is temporary.  
  • Despite losing patent protection in February 2023 on ARB monotherapy, Kanarb drug family is showing no fatigue due to increasing preference for combination drugs in the market.  

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Crypto: The Year Ahead For Gaming 2024 (Executive Summary) and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Year Ahead For Gaming 2024 (Executive Summary)

The Year Ahead For Gaming 2024 (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • Blockchain gaming peaks industry interest with unprecedented content quality. With the combined market cap of almost 200 leading projects being less than DOGE, there is ample room for future growth.
  • In 2023, 133 deals closed, securing $1.1B in funding, marking a 66% drop from 2022. Anticipating a reversal in the next ~6 months due to increased attention and capital.
  • High Web3 project costs drive competition for <1M gaming-inclined wallets. A battle for player liquidity will favor projects with versatile user bases, efficiently funneling between games for market dominance.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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