Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• All positives from management: strong demand, loads and yields strong, cargo improving, costs are high but can cope, big profits coming but have to redeem preference shares  
• The near-term future is a golden runaway for Cathay Pacific. All the parameters are in the right place and we think this will persist until 1H-2024 at the very least 
• Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+21% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP). 

• We expect Meituan to report C3Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2%, 4% and 20% vs. consensus. Our C4Q23 estimates are 6%, 19%, and 30% …
• Douyin’s in-store GMV growth decelerated in September/October, per local media. We believe there are two main causes, (1) local life’s share of Douyin video views is around 10%~, which…
• Douyin’s next threat to Meituan is food delivery, but GMV is less than 1% of Meituan food delivery in 3Q, we estimate. At the current trajectory, we expect Douyin…

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Agung Podomoro Land
2. China Jinmao Holdings
3. Geely Auto
4. First Pacific Co
5. Reliance Industries

and more…

• EM Fund ownership in JD.com continues to fall. Average weights slip to 4-year low as managers close out in large numbers.
• Between February 2023 and October 2023, there were 56 closures versus 6 openings in JD.com, led by managers at the growth end of the spectrum.
• Despite this, JD.com is still the 16th most widely held stock globally, with combined AUM among the funds in this analysis of $1.27bn.

• New Horizon reported a strong 1H2023 results. Company has upgraded its ’23 sales guidance.
• The company will continue to deliver strong sales growth despite recent anti-corruption movement in China.
• We believe that the evidence presented by the recent short-selling report is not sound. We believe the impact is over. 

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• Kuaishou reported revenue/non-GAAP operating profit/GAAP net income 1.13%/35.0%/52.2% vs. our estimation.
• The bottom-line beats were primarily due to reduced S&M costs related to effective user retention strategies and the operation of the newly constructed data centre in Ulanqab…
• We maintain our BUY rating and raised TP to HK$78 for a positive outlook in the e-commerce business and viral playlets, stimulating advertising growth…

The Asia Trade Book for November 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.