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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 14
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Light & Wonder , Seven & I Holdings, Anta Sports Products, Naspers, LIFULL and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Change: Light & Wonder (LNW) To Replace UMG
  • Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Strong 3Q23 Update
  • Naspers: Discount to Prosus Market Value Reaches Narrowest Level Since Prosus Listing
  • Quick Look – Lifull (2120 JP)

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Change: Light & Wonder (LNW) To Replace UMG

By Brian Freitas

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
  • The company’s shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
  • If overseas investors who supported ValueAct’s proposals begin to exit, Seven & I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.

Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Strong 3Q23 Update

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) announced a set of strong 3Q23 operating data yesterday after market close.
  • Both Anta and Fila brands performed well in a challenging macro environment in China in 3Q23, with 3Q22 being a high base. 
  • Another bright spot is that other brands outside of Anta and Fila grew 45-50% yoy in 3Q23, with Descente up 40-45% yoy and Kolon up 65-70% yoy.

Naspers: Discount to Prosus Market Value Reaches Narrowest Level Since Prosus Listing

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • In yesterday’s trading session, Naspers and Prosus followed the market lower leading up to and after the US CPI print (headline worse than expected, core inline). 
  • Naspers and Prosus closed 1.4% and 1.9% lower, reducing Naspers’ discount to Prosus’ market value to its narrowest level since Prosus listed. The discount closed at 10.4% (currently 10.9%).
  • Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 2.2% during the last 3 trading days. 

Quick Look – Lifull (2120 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Company Profile: LIFULL runs the LIFULL Home’s real estate website.
  • Compared to its main rival, whose strategy is focused mainly on the quantity of listings, LIFULL’s aim is to achieve greater quality, as measured by the percentage of inquiries that lead to sales for professional real estate clients.
  • While others primarily charge a fixed fee for listings, LIFULL charges a combination of fixed fees and incentive fees based on the number of inquiries received for a listing. 

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Oct 14
0

Most Read: Shinko Electric Industries, Fast Retailing, Astra International, Eoflow , Nws Holdings, HDFC Bank, EcoPro Materials, Light & Wonder , Seven & I Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Waiting for a Package
  • Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week
  • What EOflow Insiders Are Saying on the Current Situation & An Objective Interpretation of It
  • NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade
  • Major Revisions of the Corporate Governance Report Guidelines in Korea: To Reduce “Korea Discount”
  • Ecopro Materials: Reduces IPO Price Range
  • S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Change: Light & Wonder (LNW) To Replace UMG
  • Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Shinko Electric (6967) – Waiting for a Package

By Travis Lundy

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) has been on the block. 2nd Round Bids were apparently due last month, but with “Economic Security” considerations, one wonders if that stretches a bit.
  • The stock is now at the low end of its range vs Ibiden, and the timing is right for a deal which could give it a pop. 
  • A “split price” takeover seems reasonable as a structure. I expect upside. Still. 

Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

By Travis Lundy

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.
  • At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.
  • If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there’d be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. 

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on Astra International (ASII IJ) and the largest sell flows on POSCO Holdings (005490 KS). 

What EOflow Insiders Are Saying on the Current Situation & An Objective Interpretation of It

By Sanghyun Park

  • They said that EOflow has made a strategic decision not to raise any objections to the court’s injunction to temporarily suspend the sale and marketing activities of EOPATCH.
  • They stated their commitment to making efforts to actively prove that they are not subject to KRX’s substantive delisting examination. Hence, they aim to resume trading from November 1st.
  • They subtly hinted at a degree of caution, suggesting that the final agreement with Medtronic might undergo slight modifications to align with the outcome of this preliminary injunction.

NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains

By David Blennerhassett

  • Accelerating the Offer timetable for NWS (659 HK) such that it closes before the dividend ex-date appeared stingy. But why pay dividends to shareholders that won’t hold the shares anymore?
  • Those concerns have been put to rest with the despatch of NWS’ Composite Doc and New World (17 HK)‘s Circular, guaranteeing all shareholders the dividend, no matter the Offer outcome.
  • The key risk now is NWD’s independent shareholder vote. On balance, this should get up.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) will be added to the index while there will be selling in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).

Major Revisions of the Corporate Governance Report Guidelines in Korea: To Reduce “Korea Discount”

By Douglas Kim

  • On 12 October, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced major Revisions of the Corporate Governance Report Guidelines, including improvement of dividend procedures and revisions of governance principles.
  • The major revisions of the Corporate Governance Report Guidelines in Korea should be catalysts for reducing “Korea Discount.”
  • These new Corporate Governance Report will recommend the KOSPI listed companies with assets of more than 500 billion won to comply with the new guidelines effective 2024.

Ecopro Materials: Reduces IPO Price Range

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials reduced the upper end of the IPO price range from 46,000 won to 44,000 won.
  • The bankers reduced the IPO discount, EV/EBITDA valuation multiple, and outstanding shares. 
  • We maintain our Bearish view of the Ecopro Materials IPO. Our base case valuation of 37,436 won per share is towards to lower end of the IPO price range. 

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Change: Light & Wonder (LNW) To Replace UMG

By Brian Freitas

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
  • The company’s shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
  • If overseas investors who supported ValueAct’s proposals begin to exit, Seven & I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Eoflow , Koentec Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • What EOflow Insiders Are Saying on the Current Situation & An Objective Interpretation of It
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec

What EOflow Insiders Are Saying on the Current Situation & An Objective Interpretation of It

By Sanghyun Park

  • They said that EOflow has made a strategic decision not to raise any objections to the court’s injunction to temporarily suspend the sale and marketing activities of EOPATCH.
  • They stated their commitment to making efforts to actively prove that they are not subject to KRX’s substantive delisting examination. Hence, they aim to resume trading from November 1st.
  • They subtly hinted at a degree of caution, suggesting that the final agreement with Medtronic might undergo slight modifications to align with the outcome of this preliminary injunction.

Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec

By Douglas Kim

  • We are starting a new series called “Asian Dividend Gems.” We plan to write about outstanding companies in Asia with high dividend yields (5% to 20%).
  • The first company in this series is Koentec. From 2018 to 2022, its dividend yield averaged 5.2% and its dividend payout averaged 80.8%. The current dividend yield is 7%.
  • Koentec is a leading Korean company that provides industrial waste incineration, steam production (utility), and waste landfill services. 

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief Australia: Canacol Energy, Ansell Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023
  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Worst Not Over Yet; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Persists; Bleak FY24 Guidance

Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.90 per share: Additional acreage should increase the size of the prize – Pulsar has signed a lease with a private mineral rights holder to expand the area of the company’s Topaz helium project.
  • The additional mineral rights are within a 6.2 mile radius of the Topaz discovery and cover a total of 2,840 gross acres (1,049 net acres).
  • OMV (OMV AG): 3Q23 update – 3Q23 production was 364 mboe/d.

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Worst Not Over Yet; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Persists; Bleak FY24 Guidance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) reported 11% YoY decline in revenue to $1,655M in FY23. Healthcare business experienced significant customer destocking through FY23, leading to 21% YoY decline in segment revenue.
  • Ansell has outlined an investment program to improve productivity and accelerate digitalization for total cost of $70–85 million. The program calls for production as well as job cut.
  • Strong headwinds in the glove sector are expected to continue as the global oversupply situation persists. Ansell expects FY24 adjusted EPS to be $0.92–1.12 (down 3–20% YoY).

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023
  • Medco Energi – Event Flash – Tender Offer And Potential Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Shui On Land
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. Yuexiu Property
  4. China Hongqiao
  5. Longfor Properties

and more…

Medco Energi – Event Flash – Tender Offer And Potential Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s tender offers are positive for existing bondholders in our view, as the early tender considerations are 2-3 pts above the last traded prices before the announcement. Conversely, we doubt the repurchases will provide significant interest savings for the company. Still, we view the proposed new notes issuance as credit positive for Medco, as it will lengthen the debt maturity profile and enable the company to finance a Middle East acquisition using long-term funding.

We recommend that holders of the MEDCIJ 6.75 25 tender before the early tender deadline, but are neutral on the tender offer for the remaining notes. We see fair value for the proposed 2029 notes at 9.2-9.7%. 

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief United States: Light & Wonder , Canacol Energy, Riley Exploration Permian and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Change: Light & Wonder (LNW) To Replace UMG
  • Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023
  • Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. – Expect 2H23 Free Cash Flow Growth

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Change: Light & Wonder (LNW) To Replace UMG

By Brian Freitas

Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.90 per share: Additional acreage should increase the size of the prize – Pulsar has signed a lease with a private mineral rights holder to expand the area of the company’s Topaz helium project.
  • The additional mineral rights are within a 6.2 mile radius of the Topaz discovery and cover a total of 2,840 gross acres (1,049 net acres).
  • OMV (OMV AG): 3Q23 update – 3Q23 production was 364 mboe/d.

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. – Expect 2H23 Free Cash Flow Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • We are updating our 3Q23 estimates to reflect actual reference prices of $82.26/bbl for oil and $2.66/MMBtu for natural gas.

  • Our FY23 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $257 million, based on average oil and gas reference prices of $79.29/bbl and $2.69/MMBtu.

  • Riley’s 2Q23 production averaged 21.2 MBOE/d (71% oil), representing 109% Y/Y and 62% Q/Q gains. 

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief China: Nws Holdings, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Anta Sports Products and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains
  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Strong 3Q23 Update

NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains

By David Blennerhassett

  • Accelerating the Offer timetable for NWS (659 HK) such that it closes before the dividend ex-date appeared stingy. But why pay dividends to shareholders that won’t hold the shares anymore?
  • Those concerns have been put to rest with the despatch of NWS’ Composite Doc and New World (17 HK)‘s Circular, guaranteeing all shareholders the dividend, no matter the Offer outcome.
  • The key risk now is NWD’s independent shareholder vote. On balance, this should get up.

Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Shui On Land
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. Yuexiu Property
  4. China Hongqiao
  5. Longfor Properties

and more…

Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Strong 3Q23 Update

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) announced a set of strong 3Q23 operating data yesterday after market close.
  • Both Anta and Fila brands performed well in a challenging macro environment in China in 3Q23, with 3Q22 being a high base. 
  • Another bright spot is that other brands outside of Anta and Fila grew 45-50% yoy in 3Q23, with Descente up 40-45% yoy and Kolon up 65-70% yoy.

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief Japan: Seven & I Holdings, Suruga Bank Ltd, LIFULL, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation
  • Suruga Bank – Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ
  • Quick Look – Lifull (2120 JP)
  • Whether or Not to Promote Diversity in the Company Depends on Management Leadership

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
  • The company’s shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
  • If overseas investors who supported ValueAct’s proposals begin to exit, Seven & I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.

Suruga Bank – Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
  • ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
  • Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization

Quick Look – Lifull (2120 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Company Profile: LIFULL runs the LIFULL Home’s real estate website.
  • Compared to its main rival, whose strategy is focused mainly on the quantity of listings, LIFULL’s aim is to achieve greater quality, as measured by the percentage of inquiries that lead to sales for professional real estate clients.
  • While others primarily charge a fixed fee for listings, LIFULL charges a combination of fixed fees and incentive fees based on the number of inquiries received for a listing. 

Whether or Not to Promote Diversity in the Company Depends on Management Leadership

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Given that embedding diversity within company is essential for the company’s growth and resilience, it’ll be up to management leadership to decide whether this should be promoted as management strategy.
  • Companies with more women in the workforce tend to have higher stock prices. It can be assumed that the company is hiring talented, skilled, and necessary personnel regardless of gender.
  • Analysis shows that companies with a higher percentage of female board members contribute more to value creation. Companies that promote board diversity are also keen on diversity throughout the company.

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief India: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd, Bandhan Bank Ltd, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023
  • SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector – Initiating Coverage.
  • Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?
  • Vedanta Resources: $3 Bn Bonds Maturity Is Just the Tip; the Iceberg Is Nearly $11 Bn.

Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Shui On Land
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. Yuexiu Property
  4. China Hongqiao
  5. Longfor Properties

and more…

SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector – Initiating Coverage.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • SBI Life leads the Private Life Insurers in India in terms of market share, thanks to exclusive access to Banca channel of the largest bank in the country.
  • SBI Life has been one of the best-performing life insurers in terms of growth as well as margin expansion among peers in recent years, which we expect to continue. 
  • SBIL is our primary pick in the Indian Life Insurance space with an upside of ~24% and its relatively cheaper valuations offers a margin of safety to cover near-term risks.

Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We visit the ‘City of Joy,’ Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.
  • Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. 
  • We have been positive on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround & transformation of its habits.

Vedanta Resources: $3 Bn Bonds Maturity Is Just the Tip; the Iceberg Is Nearly $11 Bn.

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Market concern on company’s redemption of Bonds of $ 3 bn in 2024 
  • Liquidity gap for company is much larger estimated at nearly $11 bn
  • Company needs to raise long term funds and/or divest assets to raise the required amount

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Oct 13
0

Daily Brief ESG: Eletrobras – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Eletrobras – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Eletrobras – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Eletrobras’ ESG as “Strong”, in line with the Environmental pillar, while its Social and Governance scores are “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

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