Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK) (HITSEC) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong’s Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
• The rumour doing the rounds is that Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH) (HSC) may take private its 73.4%-held Hong Kong-listed investment banking unit.
• HITSEC’s share performance since 1Q18 has been tragic. Financials have been dire since 2H20.  But expect a punchy premium if HTS does seek to take HITSEC private. 

• Edelweiss reported a strong Q1FY24 earnings led by its asset management and ARC businesses. In particular, the asset management business is scaling up well for Edelweiss.
• In the ARC business, Edelweiss saw strong recoveries during Q1FY24. Also, gradually, Edelweiss is scaling up the retail ARC business.
• The credit business continues to see reduction in the wholesale loan book AUM. Asset quality remains stabilized and the co-lending model is helping Edelweiss to grow well.

• HKEX (388 HK) announced strong results, defying some worsening trends in volume, new listings, with quarterly profit growth rising from 11% to 28% to 34% YoY from 4Q22 to 2Q23
• Cost controls have been key to 31% 1H23 profit growth, with 0% growth depreciation, amortization, financing costs, and taxation, which can continue to support profit delta
• Revenue growth of 18-19% YoY in each of the past 2 quarters is partly driven by new revenue streams, which can offset some weaknesses in traditional metrics

• Q1 tends to be a seasonally weak quarter for the exhibition business (BEC) and as a result, the revenues declined on a QoQ basis.
• However, in YoY terms, BEC revenues grew 75%+ and exceeded pre-COVID levels, i.e. the revenues are up 7% vs that in Q1FY20.
• The IT Parks business saw marginal improvement of 1% QoQ growth suggesting that the occupancy level is steady. Occupancy is 97% in Tower 4 and 82% in Tower 3.

• Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep value plays RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) and CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK) on the buy list
• RHB Bank is our top pick for its second from top post-provision profitability, for its high CET1 ratio not inhibiting its ROE, and for its undemanding PE and PBV valuations
• CIMB remains our deep value pick with its solid CET1 ratio and premium pre-provision returns, despite its weaker credit quality; its modest valuations include a very attractive PEG ratio

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) continues to generate stable underlying earnings, fully covering DPS and providing an attractive 6.5% yield. Total return is benefiting from a stabilisation of property yields. Average rental values have continued to increase and, combined with asset management opportunities and a strong balance sheet, this provides strong ongoing support for the company’s enhanced income strategy.

Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) post-pandemic recovery in new lettings paused in H123, as occupiers adopted a cautious ‘wait and see’ approach, although rents increased and the strong ‘return to the office’ supports RGL’s expectation that leasing will accelerate. With DPS lowered to match reduced income prospects, the shares have fallen sharply, maintaining a sector-high dividend yield. Including asset sales focused on low-income properties, our forecasts show the rebased dividend to be fully covered and gearing reduced.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Agung Podomoro Land