All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 28
0

Daily Brief India: Nsdl, AAC Technologies Holdings, Tata Motors Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
  • The deal will be run by ISec, Axis Capital, HSBC, IDBI, Motilal and SBI Caps.
  • It IS the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.

Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Tata Motors Limited (TML) has reported stronger Q1/23-24 results than expected, thanks to Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) impressive performance. Specifically, this business delivered much higher sales volumes, revenue, profits and FCF. In addition, better selling prices and lower raw material costs drove exceptional improvement in profitability. The financial risk profile continued to strengthen, with lower net debt and higher earnings. Liquidity remains sound.

We expect the company to continue performing well for the rest of the year. JLR’s performance in the prior year was constrained by the semiconductor supply shortage, which continues to ease. JLR also demonstrated that demand for its products is still strong. The order book remains high, providing visibility on demand. In addition, we anticipate that JLR’s re-organisation with three separate brands will enhance brand image. We see Range Rover moving up to the luxury segment from the premium segment, with an increase in selling prices and higher margins. We believe that the financial risk profile of the group and JLR will continue improving.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Australia: Pacific Current, Pureprofile Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal’s NBIO
  • Pureprofile Ltd – Delivers on EBITDA Margin Guidance of 11% for FY23

GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal’s NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday (26 July), asset manager Pacific Current (PAC AU)  announced a cash/scrip NBIO from Regal Partners (RPL AU).
  • Under Regal’s proposal, Pacific Current shareholders would receive an implied $10.77/share. Pacific Current considers the current share price doesn’t reflect the underlying value of its portfolio and business.
  • Now GQG Partners (GQG AU) has announced it intends to submit its own NBIO. No price was mentioned.

Pureprofile Ltd – Delivers on EBITDA Margin Guidance of 11% for FY23

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights business underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • The company has an established position delivering insights to clients across 89 countries and has captured through its panel fully declared, deep consumer profiles, first-party data, and insights.
  • Pureprofile has delivered a 14% increase in Q4 revenue to $11.1m from its core Data & Insights and SaaS platform businesses. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • [Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$51) TP Change]: Competitive Landscape Intensifying… Cut TP to $51

[Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$51) TP Change]: Competitive Landscape Intensifying… Cut TP to $51

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Shopee’s competitive landscape deteriorated in 2Q23, due to increased pressure from TikTok/Lazada in ASEAN, Coupang in Taiwan, and Shein in Brazil. Temu is a large swing factor.
  • Shopee has been pushing live streaming and its full-management (or consignment) mode. In our view, these will drag down its profit margins and may not be effective in gaining share.
  • We estimate 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income are 2.5% and (24%) vs cons. We have revised down Shopee’s growth expectations for the next 3 years.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Multi Bintang Indonesia, AKR Corporindo, AAC Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Multi Bintang Q2 2023: Steady Recovery 6.5-7% Yield and 85% ROCEs on Track
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – A Steely Operator
  • Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics

Multi Bintang Q2 2023: Steady Recovery 6.5-7% Yield and 85% ROCEs on Track

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) delivered a steady Q2 2023 with revenues up 16.6% YoY and profits up 32% YoY, aided by revenue growth on alcoholic beverages of 20% YoY. 
  • EBITDA margins expanded to 50% in Q2 2023 from 45% in Q1 2023 but remained flat YoY. We expect margins to continue expanding in subsequent quarters as revenues grow seasonally.
  • Trading at 15.8x/13x FY23e/24e PE, with a 6.3%/7.7% dividend yield, we believe this is an excellent play on tourism recovery in Indonesia. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – A Steely Operator

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp up of sakes at JIIPE.
  • JIIPE will become a more important contributor for AKR Corporindo, as it builds a critical mass of EV-battery-related tenants plus it benefits from increasing demand from smelters for chemicals
  • AKR Corporindo remains a core industrial holding in Indonesia, through both its petroleum and chemicals business plus its industrial estate, which is a multi-year growth story. Valuations remain attractive. 

Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief China: XPeng , Shanghai United Imaging Health, Sino-Ocean Group, AAC Technologies Holdings, Lianlian DigiTech and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [XPeng(XPEV US, BUY, TP US$24.3)TP Change]: Potential of Tech Licensing and EV Sales Lifts Valuation
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​500 Dec 22: Massive Baskets, US$2.5bn One-Way
  • Morning Views Asia: Sands China, Sino-Ocean Service, SK Hynix, O-Net Technologies (Group)
  • Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

[XPeng(XPEV US, BUY, TP US$24.3)TP Change]: Potential of Tech Licensing and EV Sales Lifts Valuation

By Shawn Yang

  • VW’s long-term software dilemma caused delays of new EV model launch. Thus, leveraging established software capability of Xpeng could help VW catch up and shorten its R&D cycle.
  • We see two benefits for Xpeng: 1) a new revenue stream from tech licensing and potential reduction of supply chain costs; 2) VW’s endorsement  could help Xpeng’s overseas expansion.
  • We think the potential of Xpeng’s high-margin tech licensing being opened to more VW models and other OEMs. Our TP implies 2.5x 2024PS

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​500 Dec 22: Massive Baskets, US$2.5bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
  • I currently expect 13 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. 

Morning Views Asia: Sands China, Sino-Ocean Service, SK Hynix, O-Net Technologies (Group)

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.  
  • In LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, FCF burn with a weak balance sheet.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Nomura Real Estate Master Fund,, Genda Inc, Mizuho Financial Group, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Takeda Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) Tender – Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong
  • Nomura Real Estate To Buy Nomura RE Master Fund Units
  • Genda IPO Trading – Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO
  • Mizuho – Tax Rate Normalization, Yield Curve Control Relief, Can Mean Profit Surge
  • Solving Gender Gap in Higher Education Is Key, as Political Leadership Can’t Be Count On
  • Takeda: Earnings Beat Driven by Key Drugs and Dengue Vaccine Seeing Positive Momentum

Toshiba (6502) Tender – Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

By Travis Lundy

  • It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba’s Board supported it.
  • There’s been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That’s now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. 
  • But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. 

Nomura Real Estate To Buy Nomura RE Master Fund Units

By Travis Lundy

Genda IPO Trading – Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO

By Clarence Chu

  • Genda Inc (9166 JP) raised around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
  • Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
  • In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Mizuho – Tax Rate Normalization, Yield Curve Control Relief, Can Mean Profit Surge

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Mizuho’s current tax expenses can see normalization that restores profitability by June quarter
  • Yield curve control relief coming at a time of tax normalization, can be significant to profit
  • Credit costs have moved higher, but the magnitude may wane, given NPL distribution

Solving Gender Gap in Higher Education Is Key, as Political Leadership Can’t Be Count On

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Unless 10% male/female of lawmakers, is changed, the quota system cannot be expected to be introduced. It’s not easy to replace male incumbents who have vested interests with female candidates.
  • Gender wage gap relies on the low number of female managers, but there’s no sense of acceleration in the government’s goal of achieving 30% of female managers by 2030.
  • The gender gap in higher education is affecting female managers and the gender wage gap. It’s important to solve this fundamental problem by providing equal higher educational opportunities through scholarships.

Takeda: Earnings Beat Driven by Key Drugs and Dengue Vaccine Seeing Positive Momentum

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 1QFY03/2024 results today. Revenue increased 8.9% YoY to ¥1,058.6bn (vs consensus ¥989.8bn) while OP increased 12.0% YoY to ¥168.6bn (vs consensus ¥123.5bn).
  • The topline growth was driven by growth & launch products which accounted for 40% of total revenues, and increased 16.2% YoY during the quarter at constant exchange rates.
  • Takeda is expecting 7-8 key regulatory decisions during the current fiscal year and we expect dengue vaccine and other new launches to help offset revenue loss from upcoming patent expiry.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief ECM: Genda IPO Trading – Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Genda IPO Trading – Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO
  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

Genda IPO Trading – Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO

By Clarence Chu

  • Genda Inc (9166 JP) raised around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
  • Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
  • In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
  • The deal will be run by ISec, Axis Capital, HSBC, IDBI, Motilal and SBI Caps.
  • It IS the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.  
  • In LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, FCF burn with a weak balance sheet.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief ESG: Solving Gender Gap in Higher Education Is Key and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Solving Gender Gap in Higher Education Is Key, as Political Leadership Can’t Be Count On

Solving Gender Gap in Higher Education Is Key, as Political Leadership Can’t Be Count On

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Unless 10% male/female of lawmakers, is changed, the quota system cannot be expected to be introduced. It’s not easy to replace male incumbents who have vested interests with female candidates.
  • Gender wage gap relies on the low number of female managers, but there’s no sense of acceleration in the government’s goal of achieving 30% of female managers by 2030.
  • The gender gap in higher education is affecting female managers and the gender wage gap. It’s important to solve this fundamental problem by providing equal higher educational opportunities through scholarships.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Credit: Elon Musk’s Latest X-Ceptionally Bad Idea and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Elon Musk’s Latest X-Ceptionally Bad Idea
  • Morning Views Asia: Sands China, Sino-Ocean Service, SK Hynix, O-Net Technologies (Group)
  • Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

Elon Musk’s Latest X-Ceptionally Bad Idea

By Vicki Bryan

  • Elon Musk has killed Twitter’s last and greatest value by renaming it X. As in, fill in whatever the heck it is now. 
  • Twitter’s strong, globally recognized brand worth had been worth much as $20 billion—its last and only valuable asset.
  • Incredibly, it gets worse. Hundreds of other companies already own rights to the X name and logo—including META and Microsoft. 

Morning Views Asia: Sands China, Sino-Ocean Service, SK Hynix, O-Net Technologies (Group)

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Asia HY Trade Book – July 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Tata Motors Limited (TML) has reported stronger Q1/23-24 results than expected, thanks to Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) impressive performance. Specifically, this business delivered much higher sales volumes, revenue, profits and FCF. In addition, better selling prices and lower raw material costs drove exceptional improvement in profitability. The financial risk profile continued to strengthen, with lower net debt and higher earnings. Liquidity remains sound.

We expect the company to continue performing well for the rest of the year. JLR’s performance in the prior year was constrained by the semiconductor supply shortage, which continues to ease. JLR also demonstrated that demand for its products is still strong. The order book remains high, providing visibility on demand. In addition, we anticipate that JLR’s re-organisation with three separate brands will enhance brand image. We see Range Rover moving up to the luxury segment from the premium segment, with an increase in selling prices and higher margins. We believe that the financial risk profile of the group and JLR will continue improving.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks
  • Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel
  • China Lithium Futures Bounce Back From Debut Bloodbath

Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks

By Smartkarma Research

  • In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Hemindra Hazari
  • He will be sharing with us more about Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks.
  • From current opportunities, to what we can expect next in the space, join us as we get the full picture from Hemindra. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 2 August 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Hemindra Hazari is a Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) registered research analyst with over 25 years experience in the Indian capital markets with a specialization in banking and economy research and has managerial experience of establishing profitable equities business, leading and mentoring analysts. He has worked with prominent foreign and domestic capital market firms such as UBS, Societe Generale, HSBC, ASK Raymond James and Karvy Stock Broking and is a regular guest on business media channels and is respected for his non-consensus view on stocks and the market.

Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SOX 1.9% bid as Generative AI drives bid for semis/tech hardware; Booming US Economy as GDP prints 2.4% driving yields higher; But USD weaker vs Yen on BOJ.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futures -1% vs Cash; USDJPY 139. 5; Really all about the BOJ as the Nikkei broke news  on potential YCC tweak; Earnings deluge: -ve Shin-etsu; Fujitsu.
  • NUGGET. Tokyo Steel has more advantages than meets the eye. No need for the massive capex in the crucial process that Nippon Steel or JFE needs to put out. Bullish.

China Lithium Futures Bounce Back From Debut Bloodbath

By Caixin Global

  • China’s lithium futures clawed back some lost ground Tuesday after two straight days of declines in a brutal debut for the contracts, with the most-traded contract holding above the key psychological threshold of 200,000 yuan per ton ($28,010).
  • The lithium carbonate contract for January delivery on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded 6.9% from Monday to close at 225,900 yuan per ton, data from the bourse showed.
  • Futures for February to July delivery rose between 7.2% and 8.5% on Tuesday, closing between 191,350 yuan and 213,800 yuan per ton.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free