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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 23
0

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Polycab India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank: Seasonality Impacts Q1 Growth, But All Is Well
  • 2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

HDFC Bank: Seasonality Impacts Q1 Growth, But All Is Well

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) reported weak QoQ growth in deposits and advances. This is however temporary due to seasonality. The growth trajectory for rest of the year remains intact. 
  • HDFCB continues to invest aggressively into expanding its geographical presence to drive growth. Benign credit cost enables investments without impacting the ROA.
  • HDFC Ltd (“HDFC”) has been also merged into HDFCB effective Jul 1. The merged entity is carrying sufficient liquidity at 120%+ LCR to meet the additional CRR and SLR needs.

2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.
  • The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.
  • At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a “SELL” rating. Polycab’s current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 21st): Gigabyte Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 21st): Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Delta Elec, Walsin Lihwa

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 21st): Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Delta Elec, Walsin Lihwa

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 21st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Delta Elec, Walsin Lihwa.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans
  • TSMC: 2023 Guidance Reduction Excuse To Take Profit? Guidance Also Affirmed Long-Term Bullishness
  • [Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$50) Preview]: Monetization Is On-Track Amid Competitive Pressure
  • Itau Unibanco Holding S.A.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Product Portfolio
  • HDFC Bank: Seasonality Impacts Q1 Growth, But All Is Well
  • 2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.21) – New Growth Points by NDRC, License-In Model Isn’t Outdated, Intco
  • Discover Financial Services: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • America Movil ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans

By Scott Foster

  • As expected, Rohm has decided to invest ¥300 billion in the JIP-led buyout of Toshiba: ¥100 billion in voting equity shares and ¥200 billion in non-voting preferred shares. 
  • This would make Toshiba an equity-method affiliate of Rohm, facilitating synergetic cooperation in power semiconductors. The investment is large, but Rohm would still have a sound balance sheet.
  • Rohm also plans to buy Solar Frontier’s Kunitomi factory to meet SiC power device capacity requirements through 2030. Investors can now focus on profit growth, which should resume next year.

TSMC: 2023 Guidance Reduction Excuse To Take Profit? Guidance Also Affirmed Long-Term Bullishness

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC reduced 2023 revenue guidance when it reported results during the week. A weaker than expected economy in China and general economic weakness was blamed.
  • However, the company’s results beat Street expectations and management maintained its long-term gross margin guidance of 53%+, which implies the company maintaining a structurally higher margin.
  • Shares fell after results on a profit taking excuse — We however note that latest guidance also reaffirmed multi-year strength ahead. Structural Long.

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$50) Preview]: Monetization Is On-Track Amid Competitive Pressure

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Kuaishou to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net income that are in-line and 27% vs consensus, respectively.
  • We slightly cut our revenue forecast for live streaming but increased our revenue forecast for online ads. Kuaishou’s margin beat is mainly due to efficient cost control, especially in overseas.
  • Kuaishou still has several minor positive catalysts, but WeChat Video Accounts is the major short thesis in the long run. We raise EPS forecasts, but maintain SELL.

Itau Unibanco Holding S.A.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on one of the largest private sector banks in Brazil, Itau Unibanco.
  • The loan portfolio showcased growth despite signs of a slowdown, with the SMEs loan portfolio registering an increase of 9.2% for Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Product Portfolio

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Monolithic Power Systems, one of the largest semiconductor-based equipment companies.
  • Revenue from communications also increased due to a slight increase in revenue from the 5G infrastructure.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

HDFC Bank: Seasonality Impacts Q1 Growth, But All Is Well

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) reported weak QoQ growth in deposits and advances. This is however temporary due to seasonality. The growth trajectory for rest of the year remains intact. 
  • HDFCB continues to invest aggressively into expanding its geographical presence to drive growth. Benign credit cost enables investments without impacting the ROA.
  • HDFC Ltd (“HDFC”) has been also merged into HDFCB effective Jul 1. The merged entity is carrying sufficient liquidity at 120%+ LCR to meet the additional CRR and SLR needs.

2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.
  • The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.
  • At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a “SELL” rating. Polycab’s current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.21) – New Growth Points by NDRC, License-In Model Isn’t Outdated, Intco

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • NDRC issued “Guiding Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment“. The newly proposed adjustments deserve investors’ attention, because they are the areas where investors could receive excess returns in China healthcare.
  • Obtaining assets from external sources remains paramount for MNCs. License-in mode isn’t outdated. As long as companies can make money, the ways to acquire assets can be diversified.
  • Intco’s performance/stock price has bottomed out, and would gradually resume growth/rebound afterwards. Its market value would return to RMB20-30 billion. Intco would achieve a distress reversal, with attractive investment value.

Discover Financial Services: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Discover Financial Services, a prominent consumer finance company.
  • Net interest income grew significantly, supported by an expanding net interest margin driven by higher prime rates.
  • Additionally, the company introduced Discover Financial Health Improvement Fund to improve the financial well-being of low- and middle-income individuals, communities, and small enterprises.

America Movil ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Latin American telecom major, America Movil.
  • Growth in prepaid and postpaid subscriptions remained steady, contributing to an 8.3% expansion in the postpaid base and a 5.3% increase in the prepaid base.
  • Despite a 4.6% year-on-year decrease in Q2 revenue due to the Mexican peso’s appreciation against other currencies, the company still posted MXN 203 billion in revenue, with service revenues declining by 4.2%.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Macro: The Weekly Market Monitor (29) – The Moment of Truth? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Weekly Market Monitor (29) – The Moment of Truth?
  • Block Deals Pre-Disclosure Rule Changes in Korea Likely to Be Implemented Around October 2023
  • Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

The Weekly Market Monitor (29) – The Moment of Truth?

By Jeroen Blokland

  • While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. 
  • Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. 
  • The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index further into ‘Frenzy’ territory.

Block Deals Pre-Disclosure Rule Changes in Korea Likely to Be Implemented Around October 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • As a result of the likely implementation of the changes to the block deal pre-disclosure rules in Korea, numerous block deal sales are likely in the next 2-3 months.
  • Block deal sales worth 50 billion won or more totaled 5.2 trillion won in 2022. As of 17 July 2023, it was 1.1 trillion won.
  • We provide shareholding structures of the top 20 stocks in KOSDAQ and a few companies in this list could announce block deal sales in 2H 2023. 

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.
  • As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.
  • And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief ECM: TRYT IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • TRYT IPO: Trading Debut
  • ECM Weekly (23rd July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Rakuten, Mobovi, Samhi, Indigo, Federal Bank, Invincible

TRYT IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

ECM Weekly (23rd July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Rakuten, Mobovi, Samhi, Indigo, Federal Bank, Invincible

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, the coming week will see Tryt Inc (9164 JP) and Genda Inc (9166 JP) listing, along with Fadu (440110 KS) bookbuild.
  • For placements, Japan and India placements continue to flow, while there are no signs of any major Hong Kong activity.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/Way, HMM
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

By Travis Lundy

  • The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was completed about four weeks ago, and in something of a surprise, only 3.7% of 26.98% minority holdings tendered.
  • The stock traded above terms every day during the Tender Offer Period. People accumulated in order to pursue their appraisal rights later. That is big. 
  • This week, SBI Shinsei announced the schedule of dates relating to the squeezeout EGM. The record date was early. The reverse stock split announced is as expected, possibly game-able.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/Way, HMM

By David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs

By Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Rakuten Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (23rd July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Rakuten, Mobovi, Samhi, Indigo, Federal Bank, Invincible

ECM Weekly (23rd July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Rakuten, Mobovi, Samhi, Indigo, Federal Bank, Invincible

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, the coming week will see Tryt Inc (9164 JP) and Genda Inc (9166 JP) listing, along with Fadu (440110 KS) bookbuild.
  • For placements, Japan and India placements continue to flow, while there are no signs of any major Hong Kong activity.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Tryt Inc, ROHM Co Ltd, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Polycab India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TRYT IPO: Trading Debut
  • Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/Way, HMM
  • 2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

TRYT IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans

By Scott Foster

  • As expected, Rohm has decided to invest ¥300 billion in the JIP-led buyout of Toshiba: ¥100 billion in voting equity shares and ¥200 billion in non-voting preferred shares. 
  • This would make Toshiba an equity-method affiliate of Rohm, facilitating synergetic cooperation in power semiconductors. The investment is large, but Rohm would still have a sound balance sheet.
  • Rohm also plans to buy Solar Frontier’s Kunitomi factory to meet SiC power device capacity requirements through 2030. Investors can now focus on profit growth, which should resume next year.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/Way, HMM

By David Blennerhassett

2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.
  • The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.
  • At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a “SELL” rating. Polycab’s current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Kuaishou Technology, Wistron Corp, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc, America Movil SAB de CV and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC: 2023 Guidance Reduction Excuse To Take Profit? Guidance Also Affirmed Long-Term Bullishness
  • [Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$50) Preview]: Monetization Is On-Track Amid Competitive Pressure
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus
  • Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Product Portfolio
  • America Movil ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

TSMC: 2023 Guidance Reduction Excuse To Take Profit? Guidance Also Affirmed Long-Term Bullishness

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC reduced 2023 revenue guidance when it reported results during the week. A weaker than expected economy in China and general economic weakness was blamed.
  • However, the company’s results beat Street expectations and management maintained its long-term gross margin guidance of 53%+, which implies the company maintaining a structurally higher margin.
  • Shares fell after results on a profit taking excuse — We however note that latest guidance also reaffirmed multi-year strength ahead. Structural Long.

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$50) Preview]: Monetization Is On-Track Amid Competitive Pressure

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Kuaishou to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net income that are in-line and 27% vs consensus, respectively.
  • We slightly cut our revenue forecast for live streaming but increased our revenue forecast for online ads. Kuaishou’s margin beat is mainly due to efficient cost control, especially in overseas.
  • Kuaishou still has several minor positive catalysts, but WeChat Video Accounts is the major short thesis in the long run. We raise EPS forecasts, but maintain SELL.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs

By Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Product Portfolio

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Monolithic Power Systems, one of the largest semiconductor-based equipment companies.
  • Revenue from communications also increased due to a slight increase in revenue from the 5G infrastructure.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

America Movil ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Latin American telecom major, America Movil.
  • Growth in prepaid and postpaid subscriptions remained steady, contributing to an 8.3% expansion in the postpaid base and a 5.3% increase in the prepaid base.
  • Despite a 4.6% year-on-year decrease in Q2 revenue due to the Mexican peso’s appreciation against other currencies, the company still posted MXN 203 billion in revenue, with service revenues declining by 4.2%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Tryt Inc, ROHM Co Ltd, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Polycab India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TRYT IPO: Trading Debut
  • Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/Way, HMM
  • 2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

TRYT IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

Rohm (6963): Investment in Toshiba Rounds Out Long-Term Plans

By Scott Foster

  • As expected, Rohm has decided to invest ¥300 billion in the JIP-led buyout of Toshiba: ¥100 billion in voting equity shares and ¥200 billion in non-voting preferred shares. 
  • This would make Toshiba an equity-method affiliate of Rohm, facilitating synergetic cooperation in power semiconductors. The investment is large, but Rohm would still have a sound balance sheet.
  • Rohm also plans to buy Solar Frontier’s Kunitomi factory to meet SiC power device capacity requirements through 2030. Investors can now focus on profit growth, which should resume next year.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/Way, HMM

By David Blennerhassett

2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.
  • The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.
  • At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a “SELL” rating. Polycab’s current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free