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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Korea Eliminates Foreign Investor Registration Requirement: Impact on the Korean Stock Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Eliminates Foreign Investor Registration Requirement: Impact on the Korean Stock Market
  • The Rise of Private Debt: Seizing Opportunities in a Dynamic Investment Landscape
  • CX Daily: U.S. Tensions Could Sap Chinese EV-Battery Makers’ Global Ambitions
  • Macro Regime Update June – Falling Inflation in the Limelight with Wobbly Liquidity

Korea Eliminates Foreign Investor Registration Requirement: Impact on the Korean Stock Market

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 June, FSC announced that effective 14 December 2023, it will no longer require foreigners to register in advance with the FSC before investing in listed stocks and bonds.
  • The elimination of the foreign investor registration requirement will help to  reduce the “Korea Discount” which clearly exists in the Korean stock market.
  • It is uncertain how much foreign capital that could flow into Korea from this change in this regulation. The bigger picture is the eventual inclusion in MSCI Developed status. 

The Rise of Private Debt: Seizing Opportunities in a Dynamic Investment Landscape

By Albert Maass

  • Private debt is a compelling alternative investment asset with higher yields, income stability, and portfolio diversification compared to traditional investments.
  • It has gained popularity due to low interest rates (at least until recently), the demand for income-based returns, and the diversification it offers to investor portfolios.
  • Private debt carries risks such as credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, and other risks. ESG integration is also becoming important in private debt investment decisions.

CX Daily: U.S. Tensions Could Sap Chinese EV-Battery Makers’ Global Ambitions

By Caixin Global


Macro Regime Update June – Falling Inflation in the Limelight with Wobbly Liquidity

By Andreas Steno

  • Falling inflation is back in the limelight due to a range of soft forward-looking indicators, while liquidity “wobbles along” and remains above levels seen during the autumn of 2022.
  • In USDs, it is now almost a certainty that liquidity will shrink after the debt deal has been signed.
  • EUR liquidity will shrink a lot faster than USD liquidity both from a nominal and a relative perspective.

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Daily Brief United States: iShares Russell 2000 ETF, Crude Oil, Hewlett Packard Co, Ball , Cons Tomoka Land Co Florida, Broadcom and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels
  • WTI and Gold Targets
  • Dell, HP, Qualcomm Signal AI-Driven PC Refresh Cycle, 2024E PC Growth, Accelerated Windows Upgrades
  • Ball Corporation: What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers
  • CTO Realty Growth: One Of The Few Investable REITs Out There
  • Broadcom: Proceed With Caution

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4165-4200.
  • Breadth remains weak within the S&P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.

WTI and Gold Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75 resistance. 
  • Our sell call in gold at 2,060 is pressing below 1,980 with a target of 1,900 where we start to probe for an intermediate cycle low.
  • We view this as a tactical pullback within a more bullish macro cycle. USD counter play.

Dell, HP, Qualcomm Signal AI-Driven PC Refresh Cycle, 2024E PC Growth, Accelerated Windows Upgrades

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • HP and Dell’s industry outlook after their results last week indicate a PC market stabilizing and set for growth in 2024E. Qualcomm provided AI comments at a recent conference.
  • Both HP and Dell managed to beat earnings expectations despite experiencing 20%+ YoY revenue declines. Neither stock’s price has made a significant move since results.
  • AI incorporated into Windows 11 and PC’s themselves could be a major reason for companies and consumers to buy new PC’s. PC’s are being designed to run AI capabilities locally.

Ball Corporation: What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amid tough year-over-year comparisons, largely driven by business divestments, Ball Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.
  • The company’s aluminum beverage, as well as aerosol shipments, were in line with the regional expectations of the management.
  • However, the sales of the quarter decreased because of the sale of the company’s Russian business, lower volumes, currency translation, and pass-through of lower aluminum prices.

CTO Realty Growth: One Of The Few Investable REITs Out There

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • CTO Realty Growth, Inc. possesses the necessary characteristics to outperform the market.
  • Diminishing credit spreads and more predictable inflation could result in tailwinds for best-in-class cyclical REITs such as CTO.
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITs”) situated in the United States have underperformed the S&P 500 (SP500) by approximately 10% during the past year, which should not be a surprise as factors such as rising credit

Broadcom: Proceed With Caution

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period.
  • Robust demand partially justifies the recent share price increase, but not all the way to a near double-digit revenue multiple.
  • Just three months ago, I analyzed Broadcom Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) strong business model through the lens of profitability, competitive advantages and capital allocation.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional, Adi Sarana Armada and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Synergies Continue to Manifest Themselves

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Synergies Continue to Manifest Themselves

By Angus Mackintosh

  • ASSA continues to demonstrate the ability to adapt to the changing environment in 1Q2023 with growth in its car fleet and improving profitability for logistics and the last mile. 
  • Anteraja has seen a slowdown in e-commerce revenues but is focusing more on building offline customers, whilst ASSA logistics is increasingly focused on mid-mile and cold-chain logistics. 
  • JBA Auction is seeing a strong recovery to pre-pandemic levels and maintains 40% market share, whilst Caroline is targeting 3,000-4,000 used car sales in 2023, whilst expanding its offline network.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Challenger Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP): Unconditional and Final Offer at S$0.60
  • Challenger Tech: Offer Bumped & Declared Final

Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP): Unconditional and Final Offer at S$0.60

By Arun George

  • Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP) has disclosed a final voluntary unconditional offer from Dymon Asia and the Loo Family at S$0.60 per share, a 7.1% premium to the previous S$0.56 offer. 
  • As predicted, the offer followed the recent SGX unconditional offer playbook – a lowball offer followed by declaring the offer final after a cursory bump.
  • The modest offer premium will still leave minorities aggrieved. Hitting the 90% compulsory threshold implies a minority acceptance rate of 31.3%. At the last close, the gross spread is 3.4%.

Challenger Tech: Offer Bumped & Declared Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • After consumer electronics retailer Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP) announced a voluntary unconditional cash offer of S$0.56/share on the 30 May, it has closed through terms every day. 
  • At a 3.1% and 4.3% to undisturbed and one-month VWAP, the Offer was low-balled. The Offeror (Dymon Asia and Challenger’s CEO Loo Leong Thye) have now bumped to S$0.60/share. 
  • The price has been declared final. It is still only a 9.1% premium to undisturbed. But it is a lifetime high. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, SK Innovation, KT Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • No Foreigner ID/Trade Report Obligation Starting Dec 14: Impact on Event Trading in Korea
  • Higher Private Market Valuation of SK On: Positive Impact on SK Innovation
  • KT CORPORATION: Fines, Favoritism, and ESG Risks

No Foreigner ID/Trade Report Obligation Starting Dec 14: Impact on Event Trading in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The abolition of the foreign investor registration system was approved in a Cabinet meeting. They will be promulgated on June 13th and implemented starting December 14th of this year.
  • This change is not just about reducing administrative tasks, as it also eliminates the reporting obligations of foreign investors, thereby reducing their position exposure risk.
  • This could improve event outcome and price prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on event trading when this measure takes effect in December.

Higher Private Market Valuation of SK On: Positive Impact on SK Innovation

By Douglas Kim

  • It has been reported that SK On received 1.2 trillion won investment from a consortium led by MBK Partners and SNB Capital, valuing SK On at about 25 trillion won.
  • Our SoTP valuation of SK Innovation suggests a target price of 274,738 won per share, which represents a 38% higher levels than current price.
  • SK Innovation’s 96.5% stake in SK On (24.1 trillion won in value) is 130% higher than SK Innovation’s current market cap.

KT CORPORATION: Fines, Favoritism, and ESG Risks

By Heejeong (Hollie) Park

  • Domestic telecom company faced significant fines for false advertising of 5G, the second-largest penalty ever imposed. 
  • Investigations into the telecom market, dominated by a long-term duopoly, are expanding. 
  • Within KT Group’s subcontracting process, allegations of favoritism and manipulation in project allocation are currently under investigation by the prosecution.

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Daily Brief India: HealthCare Global Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HCG: Emerging Centers Are Inching Closer to Maturity

HCG: Emerging Centers Are Inching Closer to Maturity

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HCG ended FY23 with decent profitability and is on track to see significant scale up over the next 12-18 months as its emerging centers become mature.
  • During the course of the next couple of years, HCG is also looking to enhance its presence through the inorganic route.
  • We project that HCG may do a PAT of INR 200cr by FY25. At the current market cap of INR 4450cr, HCG is attractively valued at 22x per FY25E PAT. 

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), China Resources Power, Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry, Kelun Biotech, Tencent, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Potential IPOs – The Final Part – Quick Look at Investees and Eventual Holdco
  • CR Power (836 HK): Upside From Clean Energy Spin-Off
  • Alibaba IPOs, Freshippo IPO: Conflict of Interest Arising from Competition with Tmall Supermarket
  • Beauty Farm Medical (BFM HK): Expectations Are Flying Too High; 1H23 Result Will Set the Path
  • Pre-IPO Kelun Biotech (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Tencent Investee Selldown – JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Yuexiu Property

Alibaba Potential IPOs – The Final Part – Quick Look at Investees and Eventual Holdco

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
  • Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
  • In this note, we will talk about some of the company’s investments and how the overall Holdco would look post restructuring.

CR Power (836 HK): Upside From Clean Energy Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Late March, SOE-backed power play China Resources Power Holdings Co Ltd. (836 HK) announced it intends to spin off its energy unit via an A-share listing. 
  • Shares gained 4.9% on the news – gains which were promptly given back over the ensuing fortnight.
  • Renewable energy profits have been the driving force behind CRP’s bottom line strength the last two years. But how best to assign a value to the remaining loss-making thermal ops? 

Alibaba IPOs, Freshippo IPO: Conflict of Interest Arising from Competition with Tmall Supermarket

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Freshippo (Hema) is set to be the first Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) company to have an IPO after the business split into six units.
  • Two key concerns for Freshippo’s IPO are its failure to secure outside funding in two attempts last year and the potential conflict of interest arising from competition with Tmall Supermarket.
  • While it is still premature to make a definitive assessment of Freshippo’s IPO prospects, we maintain a level of skepticism towards the company.

Beauty Farm Medical (BFM HK): Expectations Are Flying Too High; 1H23 Result Will Set the Path

By Tina Banerjee

  • Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) reported decline in revenue and net profit in 2022, due to the implementation of nationwide pandemic prevention and control policies.
  • The company is seeing recovery in 2023. During January–May, customer traffic and average transaction value achieved double-digit growth YoY, while customer spending increased 20%+ YoY.
  • In 2023, revenue and EPS are expected to grow 34% and 106%, YoY, respectively. The preliminary business operation overview seems to fall short of the expectations.

Pre-IPO Kelun Biotech (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We don’t think A166 makes much sense on the commercialization level when faced with DS-8201. Unsatisfactory sales of Trodelvy also makes us start worrying about SKB264 after its market launch.
  • MNCs are scrambling to in-license ADC products, which actually reflected their “general anxiety”, leading to a “sentiment-driven valuation premium”. Would the final outcome of ADC be the same as PD-1?
  • We’re “confused” about the valuation of Kelun-Biotech if look deeper. The valuation in last round of financing before IPO wasn’t cheap, which makes us cautious considering the outlook and sentiment.

Tencent Investee Selldown – JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.
  • In our earlier note in 2022, Tencent Investee Selldown – The US$120bn Global Overhang, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.
  • With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. 

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Lifedrink , Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG), Sanken Electric, Rakuten, MARUKA FURUSATO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Lifedrink Company (2585 JP) Ascends to TSE Prime and TOPIX But An Offering Produces Overhang
  • MUFG – What if No Yield Curve Control Relief?
  • Sanken (6707)| Attractive for Activists and Growth Investors
  • Rakuten’s Seiyu Sell off Will Boost Netsuper Business
  • MARUKA FURUSATO Corporation (7128 JP) – 1Q Follow-Up

Lifedrink Company (2585 JP) Ascends to TSE Prime and TOPIX But An Offering Produces Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • On 1 June, Lifedrink (2585 JP), which listed in early 2022, announced it would move to TSE Prime in late June, leading to a TOPIX inclusion in late July. 
  • The offset to that was an announcement of an offering, whereby the PE Fund which brought the company to market would sell up to 3.87mm shares, effectively doubling float. 
  • The offering is larger than the TOPIX inclusion. The stock fell the next day, rebounded, then rebounded 11% Monday. Now it’s up more and hit a lifetime closing high.

MUFG – What if No Yield Curve Control Relief?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There may be no imminent yield curve control relief in Japan
  • MUFG market capitalization is up 2-3x and at a near decade peak level
  • Without YCC relief maybe the bank’s 60% rise in NPLs in the past 4 years is better noticed

Sanken (6707)| Attractive for Activists and Growth Investors

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sanken benefits from the structural growth in EVs, which should underpin revenue growth and margin accretion. 
  • DCF valuation suggests the stock is slightly undervalued. However, better-than-expected revenue trends could easily drive significant upside. 
  • Almost 30% of shares are held by activist investors – there is an attractive 57% upside to a SOTP valuation that could be realised over time.

Rakuten’s Seiyu Sell off Will Boost Netsuper Business

By Michael Causton

  • Rakuten sold its 20% stake in Seiyu to KKR at the end of May, divesting from direct ownership in physical supermarkets. 
  • This provides a much needed injection of cash for Rakuten’s digital projects and should also help the online platform build trust with other supermarket chains interested in joining its platform.
  • Both companies reaffirmed their commitment to build the largest online food retail platform within the next two years.

MARUKA FURUSATO Corporation (7128 JP) – 1Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In 1Q FY12/23, net sales rose 12.8%, and operating profit increased 20.3%; thus, MARUKA FURUSATO made good progress toward achieving 1H forecasts of 9.2% increase in net sales and 9.4% decline in operating profit.
  • As a large percentage of the company’s earnings comes from business orders, short-term earnings are unlikely to change much.
  • It appears, however, that the company is making greater than initially expected progress in reducing its order backlog as supply constraints, such as shortage of semiconductors, are eliminated.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels
  • WTI and Gold Targets

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4165-4200.
  • Breadth remains weak within the S&P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.

WTI and Gold Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75 resistance. 
  • Our sell call in gold at 2,060 is pressing below 1,980 with a target of 1,900 where we start to probe for an intermediate cycle low.
  • We view this as a tactical pullback within a more bullish macro cycle. USD counter play.

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Daily Brief ESG: KT CORPORATION: Fines and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • KT CORPORATION: Fines, Favoritism, and ESG Risks

KT CORPORATION: Fines, Favoritism, and ESG Risks

By Heejeong (Hollie) Park

  • Domestic telecom company faced significant fines for false advertising of 5G, the second-largest penalty ever imposed. 
  • Investigations into the telecom market, dominated by a long-term duopoly, are expanding. 
  • Within KT Group’s subcontracting process, allegations of favoritism and manipulation in project allocation are currently under investigation by the prosecution.

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