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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan and Korea Action Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan and Korea Action Levels

Japan and Korea Action Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan and Korea are meeting rally objective action points. NKY 28,500 touted as the level to short. Korea meeting the 337/338 upper wedge range target to lock in some gains.
  • Japan has formed previous tops below 29,000. Korea will need to backfill and likely retest the top of the rising wedge given the impulsive nature of the rise. 
  • These topping patterns show conviction to form bigger cycle peaks into late April ahead of a more negative phase in May. Factor in final SPX push to 4,200-20.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Fosun International and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Guangzhou R&F Properties, China Datang Corp Renewable Power

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Guangzhou R&F Properties, China Datang Corp Renewable Power

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Crypto: The New Frontier and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The New Frontier

The New Frontier

By Etherbridge

  • The true emerging market of our time is the digital economy.
  • As technology advances, we witness rapid online business growth and an increasing reliance on digital solutions.
  • This burgeoning sector knows no borders, with its educated, innovative citizens distributed worldwide.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest
  • Smartkarma Webinar | Outlook on Chinese Banks
  • US Banks – Large Vs Small
  • China TMT Update(Apr.17) –  9995HK/9926HK/BGNE.US: ADC Gets Heated up with Another Biotech License
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 4/17

Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump’s into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes
  • JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products
  • NUGGET. Elon Musk’s aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan’s Advantest(6857)

Smartkarma Webinar | Outlook on Chinese Banks

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Stanley Tsai, CFA as he will be sharing with us his insights on the performance and outlook of banks in China. Join us, as Stanley tackles topics like possible triggers for a banking crisis in China, to how the evolving regulatory environment will going to change investors’ risks / rewards, in the next live session. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 10 May 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Stanley Tsai, CFA has over 20 years of experience as a financial sector specialist across equities and fixed income. He is currently an advisor to a private investment fund and a non-executive director of a US VC fund. He is also a member of the Value Investing Committee and Media Committee at the CFA Institute of Hong Kong.

US Banks – Large Vs Small

By Daniel Tabbush

  • JPM and Citigroup results may imply radical divergence amongst US banks
  • Deposit flows into big banks, out of small banks, may be just one feature 
  • Commitment risk, loan contraction, and net interest income can surprise

China TMT Update(Apr.17) –  9995HK/9926HK/BGNE.US: ADC Gets Heated up with Another Biotech License

By Shawn Yang

  • 9995HK: ADC gets heated up with another biotech license in biotech deal (-)
  • 9926HK：Akeso’s JV with SinoBio signed exclusive distribution of PD-1 drug with SE Asia and Oceania distributor
  • BGNE.US: Merck KGaA’s BTK inhibitor drug hit with FDA hold due to liver injury…Impact to BGNE nil

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 4/17

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • With the upcoming first quarter earnings season taking center stage the next 3 weeks, there is yet again a well overdue reprieve from the back and forth focus on hiking, pausing, and cutting next steps of the Federal Reserve.
  • The focus now goes back to company earnings and forward guidance and whether slowdowns picked up on ISM, PMI, and regional Fed surveys are now making its way through earnings reports.
  • While still early, the first 22 S&P 500 Index companies reveal a 20% drop in earnings QoQ.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2)
  • Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (17 Apr) – Newcrest, Essential, Healius, Lian Beng, Golden Energy, Arcland
  • Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review
  • Rights Arbitrage
  • Weekly Deals Digest (16 Apr) – Lian Beng, Arcland, Essential, Genesis, Newcrest, Rakuten Bank, ZJLD
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2)

By Travis Lundy

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) lowered its listing price vs what were already lowered expectations from a year prior. Then Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) lowered its IPO range. 
  • SBI Sumishin dilly-dallied around IPO price for three days then went nuts, rising 40% as of Friday morning. Rakuten Bank’s IPO looks dirt cheap now. 
  • But it is worthwhile comparing it on a spectrum of OTHER Japanese banks and neobanks. 

Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) and restaurant franchise subsidiary Arcland Service (3085 JP), which it launched in 1993 and IPOed in 2007, announced they had agreed to merge. 
  • Arcland SHD runs 18 restaurant brands, of which Katsuya is most well-known, with a total of 750 or so restaurants managed globally. It has grown consistently.
  • The merger ratio is at an all-time high for Arcland SHD. This should be a done deal but I might expect some complaints. I think Arclands is probably overpaying. 

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Apr) – Newcrest, Essential, Healius, Lian Beng, Golden Energy, Arcland

By Arun George

Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • We should aim for price movement patterns with relatively low market exposure. One of them is the post-effective upward price movement of deletions.
  • The relative price performance for one week after the implementation compared to KOSPI 200 was consistently positive, ranging from 2.41% to 6.82%.
  • Given the recent price movement of four deletion candidates, there is again a high possibility that the price distortion caused by MSCI flow will revert after the effective date.

Rights Arbitrage

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The rights issue is fully underwritten and should bolster the balance sheet. This is akin to a placing by market volume. There are arbitrage opportunities (although not limitless borrowing available).
  • The arbitrage is a long position on a synthetic put. Rights will trade up to 17:30 on 3 May.
  • The new shares coming is a giant block compared to the existing shares outstanding. There may be a wave of selling from 4 May, and the shares should drop then.

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Apr) – Lian Beng, Arcland, Essential, Genesis, Newcrest, Rakuten Bank, ZJLD

By Arun George

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).
  • Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
  • Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief ECM: TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology – The Eventual Revenue Scale and Profit Margins Could Be Limited

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Lalatech’s largest segment by revenue — Chinese intra-city on-demand freight — features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries
  • At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech’s company’s dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year
  • Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces ‘hidden’ competition from several larger groups

Pre-IPO Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology – The Eventual Revenue Scale and Profit Margins Could Be Limited

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Either vaccines or therapeutic biologics, Luzhu’s clinical progress has no advantages. There have been quite a few competing products on the market or candidates with faster development progress than Luzhu.
  • Luzhu applies the low price strategy to open the market. We’re not sure if it works or not, since it still depends on R&D efficiency, product quality and commercialization capabilities.
  • We tend to be conservative about the Company’s prospects because its eventual revenue scale and profit margins are likely to be very limited based on our analysis.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Technology Hopeful of 2H23E DRAM Recovery
  • Baycurrent Consulting: Strong Earnings Beat with an Overly Conservative Guidance
  • Riding the Re-SPAC Wave

Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • After a poor FY22, 1H23 will stay challenging for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK). However, we expect pick-up in business momentum going forward, and export is a major growth driver.
  • Gross margin rebounded HoH and YoY in 2H22, and Lonking maintained good operating cost control. Recovery of equity market suggests potential big positive swing in investment income. 
  • Including investment portfolio, 92% of the current market capitalisation is net cash, providing solid downside buffer. Its 6.5x PER, 9.2% yield and 0.52x P/B are very attractive valuations.

Memory Monitor: Nanya Technology Hopeful of 2H23E DRAM Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Technology’s recent results showed a margin and ASP decline that appears to have performed better than the industry average. 
  • However, Nanya Technology may have traded off better pricing and margins for a continuation of high inventory levels. Nanya shares have underperformed Micron since our Mar 30th piece.
  • Nanya said it expects a marginal recovery for the DRAM market in the second half of 2023E. SK Hynix will be a next major data point, to report April 26th.

Baycurrent Consulting: Strong Earnings Beat with an Overly Conservative Guidance

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Baycurrent reported fourth quarter and full-year FY02/2023 results on Friday. 4Q revenues increased 32.1% YoY to ¥21.2bn (vs consensus ¥20.7bn) and OP increased 60.8% to ¥9.6bn (vs consensus ¥8.3bn).
  • Full-Year revenue and OP increased 32% and 39% YoY respectively to ¥76.1bn and ¥29.9bn, beating own guidance by 7% and 15% respectively.
  • The company’s FY02/2023E guidance is too conservative as there has been no signs of an earnings slowdown as DX consulting and high-value add projects would drive next phase of growth.

Riding the Re-SPAC Wave

By subSPAC

  • In the ever-changing landscape of SPACs, a new trend has emerged that has got investors talking: Re-SPACs.
  • Last week, electric vehicle startup Arrival announced its intention to Re-SPAC with Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. V, signifying a growing interest among De-SPAC companies in exploring alternative capital-raising strategies.
  • Traditionally, SPACs have been a popular vehicle for ushering businesses into the public markets.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Macro: The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight
  • How to Position for the Coming Growth Slowdown
  • Sustainability Meets Innovation: ESG Derivatives Become Mainstream
  • US Corporate Outlook: Credit and Labour Hoarding Profit Risks Lurk in the Background

The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight

By Cam Hui

  • The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.
  • The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.
  • Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.

How to Position for the Coming Growth Slowdown

By Cam Hui

  • The IMF warned about a growing risk of recession in the advanced economies: “A hard landing — particularly for advanced economies — has become a much larger risk.”
  • The risk of a substantial economic slowdown is rising based on our review of macro, fundamental, and real-time market factors.
  • Investors should position themselves by holding a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds to protect themselves from possible future asset price volatility.

Sustainability Meets Innovation: ESG Derivatives Become Mainstream

By Albert Maass

  • ESG derivatives (SLDs) are emerging as a key financial instrument in sustainable finance, as they incentivize companies to improve their ESG practices and help investors achieve their sustainability goals.
  • As the market is rapidly growing and evolving, market participants and regulators are facing challenges related to data standardization, transparency, and greenwashing.
  • To ensure transparency and effective risk management, market participants must collaborate and adopt data standards and frameworks to support the successful growth and impact of SLDs.

US Corporate Outlook: Credit and Labour Hoarding Profit Risks Lurk in the Background

By Said Desaque

  • US non-financial corporations’ debt exposure has risen since the global financial crisis. Tighter bank lending standards will raise borrowing costs, while a higher federal funds rate raises debt servicing costs. 
  • The 2023 Q1 US corporate earnings reporting season should confirm the arrival of a corporate profits recession, while another contraction is expected in Q2.
  • Labour hoarding and falling profits make the current environment similar to the onset of the 2001 recession: corporations were eventually forced to reduce headcount to stabilise earnings and stock prices.

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Apr 17
0

Most Read: Rakuten Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tencent, Arcland Sakamoto, Newcrest Mining, Samsung SDI, Lotte Shopping Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Global Liquidity Warning – Don’t Fight the Feds
  • Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2)
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, S&P/ASX, KOSDAQ150, TAMSCI, Kotak Mahindra Bank
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen
  • Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (17 Apr) – Newcrest, Essential, Healius, Lian Beng, Golden Energy, Arcland
  • Price/Flow Impact on Four Constituent Changes in KODEX Top 5 Plus ETF Rebalancing in June
  • Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review
  • ECM Weekly (16th Apr 2023) – Rakuten Bank, Harita Nickel, Merdeka Battery, ZJLD, Adicon, Supcon
  • Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

Major Global Liquidity Warning – Don’t Fight the Feds

By Michael J. Howell

  • A major bull market in Global Liquidity has started. Be prepared the cycle is rising and looks set to expand towards a new top sometime around 2026.
  • A sharp uptick in the pace of liquidity injections into World financial markets occurred around October of last year in the wake of the British gilt crisis
  • China’s PBoC also began a major easing policy coinciding with the end of COVID-lockdowns. China matters hugely to the World economy because of her whopping size.

Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Let’s Go! (Part 2)

By Travis Lundy

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) lowered its listing price vs what were already lowered expectations from a year prior. Then Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) lowered its IPO range. 
  • SBI Sumishin dilly-dallied around IPO price for three days then went nuts, rising 40% as of Friday morning. Rakuten Bank’s IPO looks dirt cheap now. 
  • But it is worthwhile comparing it on a spectrum of OTHER Japanese banks and neobanks. 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, S&P/ASX, KOSDAQ150, TAMSCI, Kotak Mahindra Bank

By Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prosus (PRX NA) moved 96mn shares of Tencent (700 HK) into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. 
  • Ecopro (086520 KS) is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. 
  • Japan’s Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that “increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth.”

Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) and restaurant franchise subsidiary Arcland Service (3085 JP), which it launched in 1993 and IPOed in 2007, announced they had agreed to merge. 
  • Arcland SHD runs 18 restaurant brands, of which Katsuya is most well-known, with a total of 750 or so restaurants managed globally. It has grown consistently.
  • The merger ratio is at an all-time high for Arcland SHD. This should be a done deal but I might expect some complaints. I think Arclands is probably overpaying. 

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Apr) – Newcrest, Essential, Healius, Lian Beng, Golden Energy, Arcland

By Arun George

Price/Flow Impact on Four Constituent Changes in KODEX Top 5 Plus ETF Rebalancing in June

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung SDI and LG Chem are expected to be newly included in the index, while Hana Financial and KT&G Corporation are predicted to be excluded.
  • The correlation between the price movement and the flow direction on the rebalancing trading day of constituent changes from the past reviews was quite high.
  • We can set the price impact expectation for the upcoming review even more aggressively, given that the size of the flow x DTV is more significant than in previous cases.

Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • We should aim for price movement patterns with relatively low market exposure. One of them is the post-effective upward price movement of deletions.
  • The relative price performance for one week after the implementation compared to KOSPI 200 was consistently positive, ranging from 2.41% to 6.82%.
  • Given the recent price movement of four deletion candidates, there is again a high possibility that the price distortion caused by MSCI flow will revert after the effective date.

ECM Weekly (16th Apr 2023) – Rakuten Bank, Harita Nickel, Merdeka Battery, ZJLD, Adicon, Supcon

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • Momentum appears to be picking up on the IPO front with a few successful listing helping sentiment
  • On the placement front, GDR flow appears to have resumed.

Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump’s into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes
  • JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products
  • NUGGET. Elon Musk’s aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan’s Advantest(6857)

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Apr 16
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Yageo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn, Realtek Semi, Compal Elec, Cathay Financial, Chailease.

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