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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Sun Kwang, Golden Energy & Resources, Sembcorp Marine, CK Hutchison Holdings, PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Equifax Inc, Carr’s Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen
  • CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?
  • WIKA: Decent 1H18
  • Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NICE I&S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant’s transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE’s GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
  • As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.

Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair

By Arun George


Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore’s ST index (“STI”) between now and the September 2023 index review.
  • In my previous insight (link), I mentioned Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could miss out on being added to the STI in March 2023 and that happened to be true.
  • However, based on the current data, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could finally be added to the STI in September 2023.

CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?

By BOS Research

  • In-depth presentation of retail digitalization raises expectation of retail spin-off. Asset disposals and increased DPS potential 2H catalysts
  • Limited impact from trade tensions; oil tailwind
  • Following 2 years of single-digit earnings growth, growth is likely to accelerate to double digit as headwinds from strong euro/GBP and weak oil prices eases and global economy continues to rebound.

WIKA: Decent 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Net profit up 19% YoY on strong revenue growth. New order flow remains decent.
  • Maintain IDR 2,300 TP, valuations look attractive
  • With a diversified portfolio of private construction and public infrastructure projects, WIKA offers broad exposure to Indonesia’s infrastructure investment growth

Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the multinational consumer credit reporting player, Equifax.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses performed exceptionally well, with constant currency revenue growth of 12% and constant organic currency revenue growth of 10%.
  • Equifax further announced the acquisition of the Food Industry Credit Bureau.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • C.H.
  • Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Freight demand has deteriorated, negatively impacting the top-line but the contractual truckload AGP per shipment increased, which resulted in some nominal growth in their AGP per truckload shipment.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on C.H.
  • Robinson Worldwide, a well-known provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Routing guide depth of tender, a proxy for their entire market, fell from 1.3 in the third quarter to 1.2 in the fourth quarter.

Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax is one of the largest consumer credit reporting companies in the U.S.
  • It has strong financial fundamentals which are helping it thrive in the turbulent business environment that includes an unprecedented decline in the mortgage market.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses has been performing well and is fueled by Workforce Solutions’ remarkable performance.

Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.


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Daily Brief ESG: Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Fujitec’s board composition was above average of Japanese companies in form. This was an opportunity to see an example of a board that is formally structured but not actually functioning.
  • Bringing manager’s buddy on as an “independent director” is not likely to contribute to sustainable growth in corporate value.
  • If domestic institutional investors, including passive funds, vote according to the will of the company, it will lead to stagnation of the substance of corporate governance in Japanese companies.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Sun Kwang, Golden Energy & Resources, Sembcorp Marine, CK Hutchison Holdings, PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Equifax Inc, Carr’s Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen
  • CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?
  • WIKA: Decent 1H18
  • Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NICE I&S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant’s transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE’s GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
  • As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.

Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair

By Arun George


Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore’s ST index (“STI”) between now and the September 2023 index review.
  • In my previous insight (link), I mentioned Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could miss out on being added to the STI in March 2023 and that happened to be true.
  • However, based on the current data, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could finally be added to the STI in September 2023.

CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?

By BOS Research

  • In-depth presentation of retail digitalization raises expectation of retail spin-off. Asset disposals and increased DPS potential 2H catalysts
  • Limited impact from trade tensions; oil tailwind
  • Following 2 years of single-digit earnings growth, growth is likely to accelerate to double digit as headwinds from strong euro/GBP and weak oil prices eases and global economy continues to rebound.

WIKA: Decent 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Net profit up 19% YoY on strong revenue growth. New order flow remains decent.
  • Maintain IDR 2,300 TP, valuations look attractive
  • With a diversified portfolio of private construction and public infrastructure projects, WIKA offers broad exposure to Indonesia’s infrastructure investment growth

Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the multinational consumer credit reporting player, Equifax.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses performed exceptionally well, with constant currency revenue growth of 12% and constant organic currency revenue growth of 10%.
  • Equifax further announced the acquisition of the Food Industry Credit Bureau.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • C.H.
  • Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Freight demand has deteriorated, negatively impacting the top-line but the contractual truckload AGP per shipment increased, which resulted in some nominal growth in their AGP per truckload shipment.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on C.H.
  • Robinson Worldwide, a well-known provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Routing guide depth of tender, a proxy for their entire market, fell from 1.3 in the third quarter to 1.2 in the fourth quarter.

Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax is one of the largest consumer credit reporting companies in the U.S.
  • It has strong financial fundamentals which are helping it thrive in the turbulent business environment that includes an unprecedented decline in the mortgage market.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses has been performing well and is fueled by Workforce Solutions’ remarkable performance.

Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.


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Daily Brief Credit: Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth, Overall SSS Growth Still Negative
  • Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile
  • Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration
  • Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Hologic Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Yankuang Energy Group, Yanlord Land
  • Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth, Overall SSS Growth Still Negative

By BOS Research

  • Parkson Retail Group Ltd (Parkson) is a department store operator with 19 years of operating history in China.
  • With an extensive network of 50 stores in 36 cities in China under the “Parkson” brand, the Group is one of the largest store operators.
  • It targets the middle- and mid-upper-end of the Chinese retail market, with most of its revenues derived from concessionaire sales (90% of total revenues), while direct sales account for the rest.

Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile

By BOS Research

  • Yuzhou Properties Company Limited (Yuzhou) is a property developer that focuses on residential housing in West Strait Economic Zone and Yangtze River Delta.
  • The company has moved its headquarters to Shanghai from Xiamen.
  • The company has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 2009. As of 31 Mar 2017, market capitalization of Yuzhou stands at HKD12.4b (USD1.6b).

Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1993, PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (Alam Sutera) is a small Indonesian property developer, focused on the development and management of large-scale townships of residential and commercial property.
  • As of FY16, the company held total land bank of 1,898 hectares in gross area.
  • Key source of earnings remain property development sales, with recurring income limited and derived from leases in its shopping malls.

Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Shui On Land’s FY 2022 results were acceptable, supported by reasonable contracted sales, along with a strong revenue recovery in H2 (following a poor H1, when revenue recognition was impacted by pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai). Going forward, we believe contracted sales could decrease meaningfully in FY 2023, owing to the thin sales pipeline and reduced land bank size. That said, revenue recognition might continue to rise on the back of past robust sales.

Negatively, the company’s financial profile weakened slightly, with net debt rising more than expected. Still, we believe that Shui On’s liquidity profile remains manageable and expect the company to repay the USD 500 mn SHUION 5.75 23 (due November) using cash on hand.


Hologic Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Hologic, Inc. is a well-known medical technology giant focused on women’s health.
  • In Diagnostics, they maintained top positions in key product categories for women’s health, like STIs and cervical cancer.
  • Their Women’s Health molecular diagnostics and cytology basis enable sustainable growth, foster beneficial connections with leading labs and key opinion leaders, and open the door for further innovative products.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Yankuang Energy Group, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax is one of the largest consumer credit reporting companies in the U.S.
  • It has strong financial fundamentals which are helping it thrive in the turbulent business environment that includes an unprecedented decline in the mortgage market.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses has been performing well and is fueled by Workforce Solutions’ remarkable performance.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • C.H.
  • Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Freight demand has deteriorated, negatively impacting the top-line but the contractual truckload AGP per shipment increased, which resulted in some nominal growth in their AGP per truckload shipment.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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Daily Brief Health Care: Estia Health, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, Hologic Inc, Wuxi Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Estia Health: Bain’s Non-Binding Proposal
  • Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India and US Momentum to Improve Margin and Drive Growth
  • Hologic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Post-Pandemic Impact & Key Drivers
  • Hologic Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) 2022 Results – Key Takeaways and the Outlook

Estia Health: Bain’s Non-Binding Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aged care provider Estia Health (EHE AU) has appointed UBS to advise on Bain Capital’s $3.00/share non-binding proposal.
  • The indicative  Offer arrives a little over two months after Kerry Stokes-backed Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) off-loaded its 10% stake at ~ $2.00/share.
  • Separately, Regal Fund announced it has taken a 7% stake.

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India and US Momentum to Improve Margin and Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) reported total revenue of INR43.6B, up by 20% YoY and 6% QoQ, in Q3FY23. Key markets, India and the U.S. continued to deliver robust performance.
  • U.S. business is on track to register QoQ growth in near-term, with the launches of new products. Zydus plans to launch 2–3 transdermal products in U.S. in FY24.
  • For its India business, the company aims to outperform the industry growth sustainably in the medium to long term. Lipaglyn is expected to be among top 25 products of India.

Hologic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Post-Pandemic Impact & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Hologic, Inc., a renowned medical technology giant focused on women’s health.
  • However, Breast Health lost 5.2%, indicating that its recovery from supply chain headwinds caused by chips is in progress.
  • Their Women’s Health molecular diagnostics and cytology basis enable sustainable growth, foster beneficial connections with leading labs and key opinion leaders, and open the door for further innovative products.

Hologic Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Hologic, Inc. is a well-known medical technology giant focused on women’s health.
  • In Diagnostics, they maintained top positions in key product categories for women’s health, like STIs and cervical cancer.
  • Their Women’s Health molecular diagnostics and cytology basis enable sustainable growth, foster beneficial connections with leading labs and key opinion leaders, and open the door for further innovative products.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) 2022 Results – Key Takeaways and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi Bio’s performance growth is obviously decreasing. Based on customer structure/development trend, overseas biotech is the main growth point,which means WuXi Bio would be more vulnerable to the external financing environment.
  • WuXi Bio expands manufacturing capacity aggressively through new construction/acquisitions. An important assumption is WuXi Bio can continue receiving overseas orders, otherwise its CDMO production capacity would be considered excessive.
  • Due to IRA,whether US market would reflect a slowdown in growth of healthcare spending, thereby depressing the potential return on drug R&D? This is a fatal blow to China CXO.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)
  • MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
  • Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week complemented November 2022’s  bullish LT confirmation with a bullish MT confirmation, re-instating the MT uptrend after a period of correction in Feb/Mar.
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has likely entered the 2nd leg of a material MT uptrend. Q2 2023 target towards 451.95 (+25%).

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

By Joe Jasper

  • In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
  • The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
  • The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling
  • SM Entertainment: Tender Offer Allocation Ratios Announced
  • Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses
  • Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair
  • Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk
  • AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In
  • Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed
  • Estia Health: Bain’s Non-Binding Proposal

Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling

By Brian Freitas


SM Entertainment: Tender Offer Allocation Ratios Announced

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Investment & Securities announced the final competition rate for the tender offer of SM Entertainment by Kakao Group (8,333,641 shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share).
  • The competition ratio of the tender offer was 2.2655436 to 1. Accordingly, the allocation ratio was set at 44.1395170%. 
  • At the current price of 95,100 won, SM Entertainment’s shares are undervalued by about 25% to 45% over the next 6-12 months, in our view. 

Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NICE I&S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant’s transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE’s GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
  • As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
  • There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
  • Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.

Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
  • The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
  • Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.

Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair

By Arun George


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk

By Arun George

  • Origin Energy (ORG AU) has entered into a binding proposal with Brookfield/EIG. The offer terms are changed to A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share. The offer is worth A$8.912 excluding dividends.
  • Since the announcement of the first indicative offer on 10 November 2022, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$8.97 per share vs A$9.00 for the previous offer.
  • ACCC approval will be the key overhang and is expected to take around six months. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In

By Arun George

  • Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) noted that the pre-condition for Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) privatisation offer at HK$1.85 per share has been satisfied (which was expected). 
  • The gross spread has widened to 16.4% due to concerns that the recent solid FY22 results, lack of dividends and the skinny premium would nudge minorities to vote NO.
  • It remains unclear if the dissatisfied retail minorities have enough votes to block the scheme. The downside remains low as the shares are trading 5% below the undisturbed price. 

Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed

By David Blennerhassett

  • In the wake of the Aussie government’s gas price intervention, the Brookfield/MidOcean consortium reduced its Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU) to ~A$8.90/share, down from A$9.00/share, on the 22 Feb. 
  • At the time, Origin appeared supportive.  Origin and Brookfield/MidOcean have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed.
  • Some subtle – and more favourable to all investors – changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark.

Estia Health: Bain’s Non-Binding Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aged care provider Estia Health (EHE AU) has appointed UBS to advise on Bain Capital’s $3.00/share non-binding proposal.
  • The indicative  Offer arrives a little over two months after Kerry Stokes-backed Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) off-loaded its 10% stake at ~ $2.00/share.
  • Separately, Regal Fund announced it has taken a 7% stake.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |More Bank Relief as SPX Gains 0.2%; NUGGET: Softbank- Just Can’t Catch a Break and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |More Bank Relief as SPX Gains 0.2%; NUGGET: Softbank- Just Can’t Catch a Break
  • HK Equity: 1) Strong Capital Inflow, 2) Pro-Growth Policy, 3) Better Macro Outlook to Drive Rerating
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 3/27
  • China TMT Update (Mar. 28)- XPEV / LKNCY/BABA : Jack Ma Appears in Hangzhou
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 24, 2023

Good Morning Japan |More Bank Relief as SPX Gains 0.2%; NUGGET: Softbank- Just Can’t Catch a Break

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX carve out gains on relief Bank rally; Energy leads on Oil supply distruptions; Tech lags on profit taking; Crypto in spotlight as US cracks down on Binance/CEO CZ
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futs -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.6;  Diplomatic Row btw Japan-China brewing on arrest of Japanese national for spying; SMFG expands in Vietnam; Bullish Toray MTP
  • NUGGET. Softbank just cannot catch a break. Son-san ARM IPO to be wildly successful. $70bn IPO Valuation seem a tall ask. Can Son-san pull this one off ?

HK Equity: 1) Strong Capital Inflow, 2) Pro-Growth Policy, 3) Better Macro Outlook to Drive Rerating

By Jacob Cheng

  • While most HK equities are still trading at attractive valuation, it does not mean they can re-rate and many of them can remain value traps
  • However with the banking crisis, asset owners are moving their capital to Asia.  Hong Kong gov is doing everything to attract family office business
  • This, along with improving macro outlook, can drive re-rating.  BUY SHKP 16 HK and NWD 17 HK

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 3/27

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&P 500 index performance.
  • As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.
  • Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&P 500 index performance.

China TMT Update (Mar. 28)- XPEV / LKNCY/BABA : Jack Ma Appears in Hangzhou

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA: Jack Ma appears in Hangzhou on heels of State Council’s China Development Forum (+)
  • XPEV: Xpeng P7i’s lead time extends to 8 weeks on its APP
  • LKNCY / BABA: Starbucks and Amap collaborate on “Drive-Thru” service(//+)

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 24, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 1.7%).
  • Advanced Transportation Solutions (70.3% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 5.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (22.1% of the index) was up 0.5% and Energy Technology was up 0.7%.
  • Top 10 Performers: PSIX, BRDS, PTRA, NGPHF, TGEN, GVP, VIHD, ENG, NIO, EFOI

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Daily Brief Macro: Money Watch: How Do We Track Deposit Flights? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Money Watch: How Do We Track Deposit Flights?
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo Profitability, Indosat’s Back, and Singapore Banks
  • Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

Money Watch: How Do We Track Deposit Flights?

By Andreas Steno

  • The EU banking sector is more resilient to deposit flights (for now), but we have started to see weaknesses in the banking system
  • We are now on the second consecutive week of >100 bn. MMF inflows
  • Fights for funding and banking turmoil might have been in the pipeline for some time now

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo Profitability, Indosat’s Back, and Singapore Banks

By Angus Mackintosh


Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

By The Commodity Report

  • Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank’s head of commodities said.
  • “Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back … We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher.”
  • Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

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Daily Brief ECM: DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up
  • Patanjali Foods Early FPO Look – Lifting the Overhang with a Well Flagged Deal. Re-Listing Went Well
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure
  • UBTech Robotics Pre-IPO – Definitely Needs the Capital Raise
  • Hologic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Post-Pandemic Impact & Key Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m, after pricing its IPO at the bottom-end. 
  • The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 604 stores across 17 cities, as of Feb 2023.
  • In this note, we talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.

Patanjali Foods Early FPO Look – Lifting the Overhang with a Well Flagged Deal. Re-Listing Went Well

By Clarence Chu

  • The promoters of Patanjali Foods (PATANJAL IN) are looking to increase the firm’s public shareholding to the minimum required 25% imposed by SEBI.
  • We had discussed about this in their effective re-listing FPO last year, and the deal has been well covered by media sources as well, thus it is very well flagged.
  • While it would be a large one to digest, representing at least 62.1 days of the firm’s three month ADV, the deal will lift the remaining overhang on the stock.

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure

By Sumeet Singh

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) (SSNB) raised around US$370m in its second listing attempt.
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
  • In this note, we talk about the recent updates and trading dynamics.

UBTech Robotics Pre-IPO – Definitely Needs the Capital Raise

By Ethan Aw

  • UBTech Robotics (1683374D HK) is looking to raise about US$700m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • UBTech Robotics is engaged in artificial intelligence (AI)-empowered robotics in China, dedicated to the innovation of humanoid robots and development and sales of smart service robotic solutions. 
  • UBTech Robotics’ sales have primarily been driven by its enterprise-level segments throughout the track record period. However, the firm is still heavily loss-making. 

Hologic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Post-Pandemic Impact & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Hologic, Inc., a renowned medical technology giant focused on women’s health.
  • However, Breast Health lost 5.2%, indicating that its recovery from supply chain headwinds caused by chips is in progress.
  • Their Women’s Health molecular diagnostics and cytology basis enable sustainable growth, foster beneficial connections with leading labs and key opinion leaders, and open the door for further innovative products.

Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the multinational consumer credit reporting player, Equifax.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses performed exceptionally well, with constant currency revenue growth of 12% and constant organic currency revenue growth of 10%.
  • Equifax further announced the acquisition of the Food Industry Credit Bureau.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on C.H.
  • Robinson Worldwide, a well-known provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Routing guide depth of tender, a proxy for their entire market, fell from 1.3 in the third quarter to 1.2 in the fourth quarter.

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