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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Bilibili, Pylon Technologies Co Ltd, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Meihua Holdings Group Co A, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, Giant Biogene Holding, Central China Real Estate and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Clarifying the Bilibili (9626 HK) Rule on Southbound Eligibility
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance
  • Hisense (921 HK/000921 CH) Nonsense
  • SSE180 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/FTSE Eligibility
  • Tencent Seeks Majority Stake in Overseas Game Companies as Game Revenue Slows Down Further
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Removed from UVL, but the Crisis Is Not Over
  • Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growing Faster but so Have Marketing Spends
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Sunac China Holdings

Clarifying the Bilibili (9626 HK) Rule on Southbound Eligibility

By Travis Lundy

  • Bilibili Inc (BILI US) listed in the US in April 2018. It eventually listed in Hong Kong under the ticker Bilibili (9626 HK) in March 2021 as a Secondary Listing. 
  • Bilibili (9626 HK)  announced 16 March 2022 it intended to pursue a HK Primary Listing.  Application was announced on 2 May 2022, Circular a month later. Results announced 29 September.
  • As of 3 October, it is a Dual Primary Listing, making it eventually eligible for Southbound Trading. But there as confusion as to when. Hint:  It’s March 2023.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.

Hisense (921 HK/000921 CH) Nonsense

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 21 October 2016, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) announced it would invest  RMB1.7bn of “idle” funds into wealth management products, or ~HK$1.43/share.
  • Between 16 September 2022 and 8 October, Hisense announced it has invested HK$1.13bn of idle funds in wealth management products.
  • Hisense reckons the investment is “beneficial for enhancing efficiency of use of idle self-owned funds“. But if truly idle, they should be returned to shareholders.

SSE180 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/FTSE Eligibility

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we expect there will be 18 changes to the SSE180 Index in December. The first-order impact on the stocks is not large.
  • Stocks that are not currently in Buy/Sell Stock Connect will be added to the list. That makes them eligible for inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE indices in February/March.
  • We see 6 of the potential/close adds being added to the MSCI China Index in February and 8 of the potential/close adds being added to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap in March.

Tencent Seeks Majority Stake in Overseas Game Companies as Game Revenue Slows Down Further

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported last week that Tencent has changed its M&A strategy to obtain majority stakes in overseas gaming companies as opposed to buying minority stakes previously.
  • Tencent’s online game revenue declined YoY for two-consecutive quarters primarily due to decline in domestic game revenue that was impacted by absence of new game titles and minority protection rules.
  • Our analysis on Tencent’s game downloads and ranks reveal that both domestic and international game revenues would decline further in 3Q2022E.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Removed from UVL, but the Crisis Is Not Over

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has been removed from the “Unverified List”, but the crisis is not over. CXO’s valuation center could gradually volatile to the downside,during which there would be temporary rebounds.
  • Biotechnology of US and China has entered a higher level of game. As domestic CXO is deeply embedded in global supply chain, we won’t take any chances on WuXi Biologics.
  • We may face a long high-interest-rate environment after the Fed hikes,but the booming of US pharmaceutical IPOs is the underlying logic of CXO. We provided suggestions on CXO trading strategy.

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growing Faster but so Have Marketing Spends

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
  • We had looked at the company’s past performance in  our previous notes. In this note, we’ll talk about its PHIP updates.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Hitachi Ltd, Jiangsu Expressway (H) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Downside Risk in Recession
  • Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): A Simple yet Attractive Yield Play

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Downside Risk in Recession

By Scott Foster

  • Diversified across sectors and regions, Hitachi Ltd. is a proxy for the global economy going into recession.
  • Restructuring nearly complete, but little margin expansion so far. DX revenues growing rapidly, but more profit supporter than driver. 
  • Weak 1Q and worsening economic situation casts doubt on FY Mar-23 guidance.

Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): A Simple yet Attractive Yield Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With share price of Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) now back to the 2013-2014 level, the stock is very attractive on secured yield of 8.6% based on its dividend record. 
  • Fundamentally, we expect sequential recovery in earnings in 2H22. Its diversification into clean energy will provide a quality earnings stream. Longer-term, new projects will add to earnings. 
  • It has a healthy gearing level and the Rmb denominated borrowings means it will benefit from lower interest rate and lack of exposure to Rmb depreciation.  

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hitachi Ltd, Jiangsu Expressway (H) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Downside Risk in Recession
  • Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): A Simple yet Attractive Yield Play

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Downside Risk in Recession

By Scott Foster

  • Diversified across sectors and regions, Hitachi Ltd. is a proxy for the global economy going into recession.
  • Restructuring nearly complete, but little margin expansion so far. DX revenues growing rapidly, but more profit supporter than driver. 
  • Weak 1Q and worsening economic situation casts doubt on FY Mar-23 guidance.

Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): A Simple yet Attractive Yield Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With share price of Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) now back to the 2013-2014 level, the stock is very attractive on secured yield of 8.6% based on its dividend record. 
  • Fundamentally, we expect sequential recovery in earnings in 2H22. Its diversification into clean energy will provide a quality earnings stream. Longer-term, new projects will add to earnings. 
  • It has a healthy gearing level and the Rmb denominated borrowings means it will benefit from lower interest rate and lack of exposure to Rmb depreciation.  

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, Link Administration, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)
  • Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) – Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

By Travis Lundy

  • As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
  • In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
  • Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals – might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) – Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG

By Arun George


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • AMD and Samsung preliminary numbers disappoint, PC demand weakness cited.
  • U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.
  • TSMC results coming out this week, expecting all-time high revenue.

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Daily Brief Financials: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, S&P 500, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Country Garden Holdings Co, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line
  • SEBI Indicts, Kotak Mahindra Promotes
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR
  • REIT Watch – Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday’s NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.
  • SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.
  • Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.

SEBI Indicts, Kotak Mahindra Promotes

By Hemindra Hazari

  • SEBI, capital market regulator penalises senior executives of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company for serious offenses in June 2022
  • The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) stays the penalties but a stay is not an exoneration, final order scheduled on November 10, 2022 
  • Instead of disciplining senior executives, Kotak Mahindra publicly promotes concerned executives demonstrating contempt for the regulator. 

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


REIT Watch – Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine

By Geoff Howie

  • REIT Watch – Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine Retail sales in Singapore went up by 13 per cent year on year (yoy) in August, marking its fifth consecutive month of double-digit yoy growth.
  • CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust reported 15.9 per cent yoy growth in retail tenant sales and 12.5 per cent yoy growth in shopper traffic for H1 2022.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Antengene, Dingdang Health Technology Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Antengene (6996 HK): First Drug Launched in Crowded Market of China Fails to Allure Investors
  • Dingdang Health Technology (9886HK)-Business Model Face Test; Hard to Run the Ecosystem Successfully

Antengene (6996 HK): First Drug Launched in Crowded Market of China Fails to Allure Investors

By Tina Banerjee

  • On May 13, Antengene (6996 HK) launched first drug, Xpovio in China as fourth-line treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Xpovio has also been launched in South Korea, Australia, and Singapore.
  • Xpovio reported revenue of RMB54 million in H1 2022. Antengene has guided for 2022 revenue of RMB180–200 million from Xpovio.
  • Late-Line MM therapy market is small and dominated by blockbuster drugs and low-cost generic versions of erstwhile blockbuster drugs, indicating muted growth potential for Xpovio in its current approval status.

Dingdang Health Technology (9886HK)-Business Model Face Test; Hard to Run the Ecosystem Successfully

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Dingdang has formed a system integrating front-end consultation, self-built pharmacies and back-end distribution. The “heavy asset model” leads to large liabilities, negative equity balance, cash flow pressure and poor profitability.
  • Dingdang lacks core competitiveness in introducing customer flow or rapidly expanding user base. Together with fierce competition, the gap between the Company and JD Health/Alibaba Health will become bigger.
  • It’s difficult to achieve high profits based on the business model when break-even is barely achieved. Dingdang has it hard to successfully run through its ecosystem.We’re bearish on the outlook.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Varun Beverages Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, Lifestyle International Holdings, System1 and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI India November SAIR: Potential Changes with Big Flow & Impact
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation on Derivative Linkage & Impact
  • Merger Arb Mondays (10 Oct) – Lifestyle, Yashili, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, DTAC/True, Nearmap, PTB
  • Advertisement Apocalypse

MSCI India November SAIR: Potential Changes with Big Flow & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 9 potential adds and 2 potential deletes for the MSCI India Index at the November SAIR. There are a few stocks close to the cutoffs.
  • Inclusion in the index will require passive trackers to buy 7-14 days of ADV on the stocks. That increases to 18-55 days of delivery volume.
  • There appears to be significant pre-positioning on a lot of the potential adds and the shareholding pattern as of end September should provide a better picture.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation on Derivative Linkage & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • AIPL has commenced a market consultation on amending the index universe to only include stocks that are a part of the Futures & Options (F&O) segment of the market.
  • This is likely driven by a bunch of Adani-group companies that are at the cusp of index inclusion and are not a part of the F&O market.
  • Post implementation of the change, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) is a likely inclusion to the index in December, though that depends on Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN) being deleted.


Advertisement Apocalypse

By subSPAC

  • Direct to Consumer and E-commerce brands benefited massively from the demand during the pandemic but have struggled in recent months due to the recent slump in demand.
  • Furthermore, Privacy focused changes instituted by both Apple and Google have led to poor conversion rates and soaring customer acquisition costs whiles also lowering conversion rates.
  • System1, which went public through a SPAC, aims to solve all these issues by matching high-intent customers with advertisers at scales, effectively sidestepping the recent changes.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): Alchip and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): Alchip, Yageo, ASE Technology, Advantech

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): Alchip, Yageo, ASE Technology, Advantech

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 7th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Alchip, Yageo, ASE Technology, Advantech.

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Daily Brief ESG: SEBI Indicts and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • SEBI Indicts, Kotak Mahindra Promotes

SEBI Indicts, Kotak Mahindra Promotes

By Hemindra Hazari

  • SEBI, capital market regulator penalises senior executives of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company for serious offenses in June 2022
  • The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) stays the penalties but a stay is not an exoneration, final order scheduled on November 10, 2022 
  • Instead of disciplining senior executives, Kotak Mahindra publicly promotes concerned executives demonstrating contempt for the regulator. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China SCE and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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