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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Anycolor, Japan Post Bank, Samco Inc, Trial Holdings, MonotaRO Co Ltd, Rakuten, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – Funding Possibly Re-Secured, Deal Possibly In Play,
  • Anycolor (5032 JP) Shows Its Colours – Great Quarter Guys! and TOPIX-Bound
  • Japan Post Bank (7182) – The Flow Calendar
  • Samco (6387) | Specialist in Silicon Carbide Equipment for Power Chips
  • Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case
  • MonotaRo: Hasn’t Been This Cheap For Quite a Long Time
  • Japan’s E-Commerce Wars: Rakuten Fighting Hard as Amazon Japan Becomes No. 2 Retailer
  • The Effect of the TSE Requesting an Improvement Plan from a Company with a P/B Below 1x Is….

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Possibly Re-Secured, Deal Possibly In Play,

By Travis Lundy

  • Bloomberg has an article today after the close saying Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s board will meet tomorrow to discuss the JIP bid, and the Special Committee will give its recommendations. 
  • The article suggests the Board may proceed with a vote. If they do, an announced bid could come as early as the afternoon.
  • The world is quite volatile now, and funding is probably more precious today than yesterday. But a bid is too. All in all, I see no reason for a position. 

Anycolor (5032 JP) Shows Its Colours – Great Quarter Guys! and TOPIX-Bound

By Travis Lundy

  • Anycolor (5032 JP) reported Q3 results today. 9mo Revenue is now above the lower end of original forecasts for the full-year. 9mo OP is 25% higher than the original mid-range.
  • The net profit forecast is now up 51% from the original mid-range, and up 128% on the year. The stock has cratered. Badly. 
  • It is now 19x April 2023 earnings for 90% revenue growth and 150% Net Profit growth and 40% OPM in the last quarter. Go figure.

Japan Post Bank (7182) – The Flow Calendar

By Travis Lundy

  • The near-term Supply/Demand Balance is helped or hurt – depending on how well the deal has been placed to retail, by overseas bank turmoil. 
  • Quality of placement to retail is tough to know from outside. We have near-term offsets with both index demand and dividend looming.
  • The biggest near-term differentiator in possible supply/demand outcomes is, of course, in the hands of the TSE Index team. And we just don’t know.

Samco (6387) | Specialist in Silicon Carbide Equipment for Power Chips

By Mark Chadwick

  • Samco is a beneficiary of rising power semiconductor investment for electric vehicles
  • The company is focused on SPE equipment for the growing silicon carbide power chip market
  • New investment from the likes of Mitsubishi Electric should drive structural growth for SiC equipment

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
  • In Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.

MonotaRo: Hasn’t Been This Cheap For Quite a Long Time

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After surging past 20.0x consensus FY+2 EV/OP multiple in 2012-2013, MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)’s consensus FY+2 EV/OP has fallen below 20.0x on one very rare occasion.
  • We see no major change in the fundamentals of MonotaRo aside from a temporary hike in Opex through concurrently running old and new distribution centres for the past 3 quarters.
  • Currently trading at 22.5x consensus FY+2 OP, we think this is a good opportunity to benefit from the company’s depressed valuation.

Japan’s E-Commerce Wars: Rakuten Fighting Hard as Amazon Japan Becomes No. 2 Retailer

By Michael Causton

  • The big online malls continue to grow at higher rates than many branded e-commerce stores, meaning consecutive annual gains in market share. 
  • Amazon’s lead now seems to be widening while Rakuten is also pulling ahead of Z Holdings, which continues to struggle with poor integration of assets, and we see little upside.
  • Amazon is now Japan’s 2nd biggest retailer but, despite its problems in Mobile, Rakuten is proving a relentless competitor in e-commerce and we remain bullish on its e-commerce prospects.

The Effect of the TSE Requesting an Improvement Plan from a Company with a P/B Below 1x Is….

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE will require companies with P/Bs below 1x to disclose improvement plans, urging them to shift to management that reflects an awareness of their cost of capital and stock price.
  • The good thing about this TSE request is that “cost of capital” will be widely recognized by companies. Companies can no longer easily reject shareholder proposals regarding cost of capital.
  • It should also be an opportunity for management to evaluate its own corporate value and compare it to market value and consider whether it should remain listed or go private.

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Daily Brief ECM: Harita Nickel IPO – The Positives – Earnings Staged a Recovery in Recent Periods and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Harita Nickel IPO – The Positives – Earnings Staged a Recovery in Recent Periods
  • Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case
  • Pre-IPO Shanghai Duoning Biotechnology – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns
  • W.W. Grainger Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Rockwell Automation Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Logix & Other Innovations
  • Advance Auto Parts Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Tata Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Harita Nickel IPO – The Positives – Earnings Staged a Recovery in Recent Periods

By Clarence Chu

  • PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO.
  • PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel, HN) is a vertically integrated pure-play nickel company operating on Obi Island, Indonesia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
  • In Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.

Pre-IPO Shanghai Duoning Biotechnology – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The logic of Duoning’s business layout is that self-produced upstream products reduce the cost and increase customer stickiness, then lock in the purchase of future customers from the source.
  • Although lagging behind imported enterprises in product performance, the upstream production cost control is one of the driving forces for the localization of pharmaceutical supply chain. Duoning has growth potential.
  • A slow-down or reversal of trend related to life sciences industry growth could have an adverse effect on Duoning’s business. Overseas sanctions and policy risks are also the concerns. 

W.W. Grainger Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on W.W.
  • Grainger, Inc., a global distributor of MRO materials and other related products and services.
  • The company delivered an all-around beat for the final quarter of 2022 with a sales growth was 13.2% or 17.2% on a daily constant currency basis and solid growth in both segments.

Rockwell Automation Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Logix & Other Innovations

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Rockwell Automation, a major provider of digital transformation and industrial automation solutions across the globe.
  • Rockwell Automation produced an all-around beat in its last result as organic sales and earnings both exceeded market expectations and increased year over year.
  • In a very dynamic supply chain environment, organic sales were 10% higher than they had been the previous year.

Advance Auto Parts Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Advance Auto Parts, a leading provider of automotive aftermarket parts in the U.S.
  • Advance Auto Parts had a difficult year in 2022 though it did manage to improve its top-line results in the fourth quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • Mid-single-digit comp sales growth in DIY multichannel dominated the fourth quarter.

Tata Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Bank of America, Citigroup and JM Financial.  
  • Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers. 
  • It has deep domain expertise in the automotive industry and serves clients in adjacent industries, such as aerospace, transportation and construction heavy machinery (TCHM), according to the company. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Lippo Karawaci

Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Lippo Karawaci

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ESG: IndusInd Bank- RBI’s Decision May Not Be a Red Flag and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • IndusInd Bank- RBI’s Decision May Not Be a Red Flag
  • The Effect of the TSE Requesting an Improvement Plan from a Company with a P/B Below 1x Is….

IndusInd Bank- RBI’s Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

By Nitin Mangal

  • Indusind Bank (IIB IN) ‘s shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.
  • The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD & CEO to two years baffled the market. 
  • Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.

The Effect of the TSE Requesting an Improvement Plan from a Company with a P/B Below 1x Is….

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE will require companies with P/Bs below 1x to disclose improvement plans, urging them to shift to management that reflects an awareness of their cost of capital and stock price.
  • The good thing about this TSE request is that “cost of capital” will be widely recognized by companies. Companies can no longer easily reject shareholder proposals regarding cost of capital.
  • It should also be an opportunity for management to evaluate its own corporate value and compare it to market value and consider whether it should remain listed or go private.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.
  • 291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.  

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Daily Brief Consumer: Anycolor, Trial Holdings, Greentree Hospitality, Rakuten, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, 4imprint, China Resources Beer Holdings, Advance Auto Parts, Pointerra Ltd, Colgate Palmolive Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Anycolor (5032 JP) Shows Its Colours – Great Quarter Guys! and TOPIX-Bound
  • Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case
  • Greentree Hospitality
  • Japan’s E-Commerce Wars: Rakuten Fighting Hard as Amazon Japan Becomes No. 2 Retailer
  • The Effect of the TSE Requesting an Improvement Plan from a Company with a P/B Below 1x Is….
  • 4imprint Group – Brand investment turbocharges growth
  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days
  • Advance Auto Parts Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Pointerra Ltd – Forecasts Adjusted Following H1 FY23 Result
  • Colgate-Palmolive: Well-Positioned For The Future, But I Wouldn’t Hold My Breath

Anycolor (5032 JP) Shows Its Colours – Great Quarter Guys! and TOPIX-Bound

By Travis Lundy

  • Anycolor (5032 JP) reported Q3 results today. 9mo Revenue is now above the lower end of original forecasts for the full-year. 9mo OP is 25% higher than the original mid-range.
  • The net profit forecast is now up 51% from the original mid-range, and up 128% on the year. The stock has cratered. Badly. 
  • It is now 19x April 2023 earnings for 90% revenue growth and 150% Net Profit growth and 40% OPM in the last quarter. Go figure.

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
  • In Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.

Greentree Hospitality

By Turtles all the way down

  • Greentree Hospitality (GHG) is a Chinese hotel franchiser and operator that trades at a large discount to other US traded peers and had some rumours floating around in 2022 that it would be taken private by its controlling shareholder who owns 88.7% economic interest in the shares.
  • The controlling shareholder also indicated that the reason for its late Q1 2021 report was that they had hired capital market consultants to explore a take-private offer.
  • It does have some hair on it, but let’s first focus on the positives

Japan’s E-Commerce Wars: Rakuten Fighting Hard as Amazon Japan Becomes No. 2 Retailer

By Michael Causton

  • The big online malls continue to grow at higher rates than many branded e-commerce stores, meaning consecutive annual gains in market share. 
  • Amazon’s lead now seems to be widening while Rakuten is also pulling ahead of Z Holdings, which continues to struggle with poor integration of assets, and we see little upside.
  • Amazon is now Japan’s 2nd biggest retailer but, despite its problems in Mobile, Rakuten is proving a relentless competitor in e-commerce and we remain bullish on its e-commerce prospects.

The Effect of the TSE Requesting an Improvement Plan from a Company with a P/B Below 1x Is….

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE will require companies with P/Bs below 1x to disclose improvement plans, urging them to shift to management that reflects an awareness of their cost of capital and stock price.
  • The good thing about this TSE request is that “cost of capital” will be widely recognized by companies. Companies can no longer easily reject shareholder proposals regarding cost of capital.
  • It should also be an opportunity for management to evaluate its own corporate value and compare it to market value and consider whether it should remain listed or go private.

4imprint Group – Brand investment turbocharges growth

By Edison Investment Research

4imprint’s FY22 results are impressive, with 45% organic revenue growth and an uplift in operating margin to 9.0% (FY21: 3.9%) despite some gross margin pressure from inflation. Much of this is due to the step-change in marketing efficiency via investment in the 4imprint brand, which has delivered large numbers of new customers and higher order counts. The group is inherently highly cash generative, and we already assumed that a special dividend was likely. This is now confirmed, at twice the level we anticipated, at $2/share. The pace of growth will likely moderate this year and there will need to be some investment to cater for the larger volumes, but momentum remains good, and our forecasts are edged ahead.


China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.
  • 291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.  

Advance Auto Parts Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Advance Auto Parts, a leading provider of automotive aftermarket parts in the U.S.
  • Advance Auto Parts had a difficult year in 2022 though it did manage to improve its top-line results in the fourth quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • Mid-single-digit comp sales growth in DIY multichannel dominated the fourth quarter.

Pointerra Ltd – Forecasts Adjusted Following H1 FY23 Result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using, and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
  • The company has taken a highly manual, slow, and cost-prohibitive process and turned it into a fast, efficient workflow solution for 3D data, enabling digital asset management from any device in any location.
  • The Pointerra3D suite of solutions spans target sectors including survey and mapping; architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC); utilities; transport; resources; and defence and intelligence.

Colgate-Palmolive: Well-Positioned For The Future, But I Wouldn’t Hold My Breath

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Colgate’s management seems to be making the right moves in pet food, but performance would need to improve in other segments as well.
  • Upside appears limited in the short-run and I will be looking for more evidence that management could deliver higher gross margins, I am cautiously optimistic that Colgate will deliver better results in 2023.
  • Performance of Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) in recent years could hardly be described as success.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook
  • Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan’s Defense Stocks
  • IVF: Secular Growth for Decades to Come.
  • Investors’ Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial
  • Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook
  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40
  • China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok – PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 10, 2023
  • January Mattress Imports Bump Higher Versus December; Sourcing from Vietnam Rebounds

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

By William Keating

  • H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn’t look any better.
  • We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
  • Micron’s upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. 

Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan’s Defense Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Credit Suisse Rattles Markets; Spurs Equity sell off in flight to Safety trade;   UST 2Yr Yld back below 4%;  Crude Extend losses amid Banks sector worries;
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.6% vs Cash;  USDJPY 133.4.  NKY Futs surprisingly weak given JP untouched by turmoil; Govt considers Cash transfers to poor households; Inbound recovery Continues
  • NUGGET.  As Japan Hosts “Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) JAPAN”  trade show this week,  it will highlight opportunities for local defense contractors overseas.

IVF: Secular Growth for Decades to Come.

By Michael Fritzell

  • The IVF industry is booming, driven by couples having children later in life as well as infertility problems.
  • There should be plenty of opportunities for IVF clinic operators, including for Jinxin Fertility which may benefit if the Chinese government introduces subsidies for IVF procedures. But the acquisitive nature of many IVF-related companies has caused their returns on equity and earnings per share growth to be weak.
  • One stock that trades at a low multiple with fat profit margins is Organon, though be aware of its ongoing patent cliffs, which may be the reason it was spun off in the first place.

Investors’ Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

By Douglas Kim

  • Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
  • Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. 
  • Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the “too big to fail banks” and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.

Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

By William Keating

  • Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined ~4% sequentially in Q4 2022. We anticipate a further 10% sequential decline in area shipments in Q1 2023
  • For 2023, we expect wafer shipments to decline by around 5% YoY with weakness in H1 offset by strength in demand in H2.
  • Despite the decline in area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long Term Agreements and customer prepayments. 

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%

China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok – PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD: PDD reveals ambitious goal in Temu offline conference (+)
  • BABA/JD/VIPS/3690.HK: 5% YoY rebound in January/February retail data, but slower than expected (-/-/-/+)
  • TikTok:TikTok is ready to launch search ads, minior impact to Google

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 10, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 10.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 4.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 8.1%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 4.7%).
  • Advanced Transportation Solutions (67.9% of the index) drove the index underperformance, falling 12.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (23.6% of the index) was down 3.4% and Energy Technology was down 10.3%.
  • Top 10 Performers: WWR, ABML, EFOI, LPEN, AMYZF, FCSMD, REE, PPSI, JEV.V, TPIC

January Mattress Imports Bump Higher Versus December; Sourcing from Vietnam Rebounds

By Water Tower Research

  • This note addresses the January 2023 mattress import data posted on the Department of Commerce, US International Trade Commission DataWeb at https://dataweb.usitc.gov.
  • We track imports for three specific Harmonized Tariff System 10-digit codes (HTS-10) that define adult mattresses.
  • HTS import unit and customs value data are normally posted ~70 days after the month-end of the month being reported.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Futu Holdings (FUTU US) Company Update]: Difference Assets Shield FUTU from the Fate of SVB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • [Futu Holdings (FUTU US) Company Update]: Difference Assets Shield FUTU from the Fate of SVB
  • Samco (6387) | Specialist in Silicon Carbide Equipment for Power Chips
  • Supermax Corp (SUCB MK): Gloves ASP Decline and Rising Input Costs Lead to Gloomy Business Outlook
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Comba Telecom: Global Wireless Network Innovator and Developer
  • Greentree Hospitality
  • Hon Hai Results: Managed Q4 COVID Issues Well, Reiterates Margin Expansion & EV Targets; Stay Long
  • MonotaRo: Hasn’t Been This Cheap For Quite a Long Time
  • TLT: Higher Rates For Longer Appears Less Likely Following The SVB Collapse
  • What HSBC’s SVB U.K. Deal Could Mean For Investors
  • Japan’s E-Commerce Wars: Rakuten Fighting Hard as Amazon Japan Becomes No. 2 Retailer

[Futu Holdings (FUTU US) Company Update]: Difference Assets Shield FUTU from the Fate of SVB

By Shawn Yang

  • SVB Financial’s (SVBF) liquidity risk sparked by high interest rate is unlikely to happen on Futu, as the two have different asset structures and business models. 
  • Futu is benefits under the rising interest rate environment, as its interest income generated from clients’ idle cash goes up, 
  • With also help from the floating rate of margin financing and mortgage lending business. We maintain BUY rating and the TP at US$51.

Samco (6387) | Specialist in Silicon Carbide Equipment for Power Chips

By Mark Chadwick

  • Samco is a beneficiary of rising power semiconductor investment for electric vehicles
  • The company is focused on SPE equipment for the growing silicon carbide power chip market
  • New investment from the likes of Mitsubishi Electric should drive structural growth for SiC equipment

Supermax Corp (SUCB MK): Gloves ASP Decline and Rising Input Costs Lead to Gloomy Business Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • Supermax Corp (SUCB MK) reported first-ever quarterly loss in Q2FY23 due to continued fall in rubber gloves ASP, rising input cost, and weakening of the USD against the local currency.
  • The challenging operating environment for glove will persist into 2023. Amid continued weak global demand for gloves, declining ASP, and rising input cost, Supermax will take time to regain profitability.   
  • Global demand for rubber gloves is not expected to recover soon. In the foreseeable future, the market will remain weak, competition continue to be intense, and profitability adversely impacted.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Comba Telecom: Global Wireless Network Innovator and Developer

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Comba Telecom’s Executive Director and Group CFO, Ken Chang Fei Fu.

In the upcoming webinar, Mr Chang will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Osbert Tang. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 28 March 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About Comba Telecom

Established in 1997 and listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2003 and the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange in 2013, Comba Telecom is a global leading wireless solutions provider with its own R&D facilities, manufacturing base, and sales and service teams. The Company offers a comprehensive suite of products and services including base station antennas and subsystems, wireless access, wireless enhancement, and wireless transmission to its global customers. Headquartered in Hong Kong, with manufacturing bases and R&D centres in China, Comba Telecom provides wireless communication solutions and information application services to customers in more than 100 countries and regions around the world.


Greentree Hospitality

By Turtles all the way down

  • Greentree Hospitality (GHG) is a Chinese hotel franchiser and operator that trades at a large discount to other US traded peers and had some rumours floating around in 2022 that it would be taken private by its controlling shareholder who owns 88.7% economic interest in the shares.
  • The controlling shareholder also indicated that the reason for its late Q1 2021 report was that they had hired capital market consultants to explore a take-private offer.
  • It does have some hair on it, but let’s first focus on the positives

Hon Hai Results: Managed Q4 COVID Issues Well, Reiterates Margin Expansion & EV Targets; Stay Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai results slightly beat on revenue and slightly missed on EPS, but overall the result was decent since China COVID margin impact was well managed.
  • The company has reiterated its 2025 target for gross margin to rise to 10% and over NT$1 trillion of revenue by 2025 from its new Electric Vehicle platform business. 
  • While 2023E revenue was guided to be flat YoY, this was already roughly expected. We maintain our structural Long view on the shares.

MonotaRo: Hasn’t Been This Cheap For Quite a Long Time

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After surging past 20.0x consensus FY+2 EV/OP multiple in 2012-2013, MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)’s consensus FY+2 EV/OP has fallen below 20.0x on one very rare occasion.
  • We see no major change in the fundamentals of MonotaRo aside from a temporary hike in Opex through concurrently running old and new distribution centres for the past 3 quarters.
  • Currently trading at 22.5x consensus FY+2 OP, we think this is a good opportunity to benefit from the company’s depressed valuation.

TLT: Higher Rates For Longer Appears Less Likely Following The SVB Collapse

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Market participants are re-repricing risk, says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
  • Policymakers are in a tough spot where they need to combat inflation while also providing liquidity for the banking sector.
  • iShares are once again in the spotlight as market participants are Re-re pricing risk.

What HSBC’s SVB U.K. Deal Could Mean For Investors

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • HSBC Holdings plc agrees to acquire SVB Financial Group’s UK-based business for merely £1.
  • HSBC stock’s current risks pertain to a newly evolved countercyclical environment and mainstream’s “flight to safety” instead of potential structural breaks within the firm.
  • In a drastic turn of events, HSBC Holdings plc (OTCPK:HBCYF) has snapped up SVB Financial Group’s (NASDAQ:SIVB) UK lending division.

Japan’s E-Commerce Wars: Rakuten Fighting Hard as Amazon Japan Becomes No. 2 Retailer

By Michael Causton

  • The big online malls continue to grow at higher rates than many branded e-commerce stores, meaning consecutive annual gains in market share. 
  • Amazon’s lead now seems to be widening while Rakuten is also pulling ahead of Z Holdings, which continues to struggle with poor integration of assets, and we see little upside.
  • Amazon is now Japan’s 2nd biggest retailer but, despite its problems in Mobile, Rakuten is proving a relentless competitor in e-commerce and we remain bullish on its e-commerce prospects.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Link REIT (823) – Anchors Aweigh! Fair Weather Sailing Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Link REIT (823) – Anchors Aweigh! Fair Weather Sailing Ahead
  • Toshiba (6502) – Funding Possibly Re-Secured, Deal Possibly In Play,
  • Anycolor (5032 JP) Shows Its Colours – Great Quarter Guys! and TOPIX-Bound
  • AAG Energy (2686 HK): Full-Year Results Lay Bare Xinjiang Xintai’s Low-Balled Offer
  • KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Lake Materials (281740) To Replace Kuk Il Paper (078130)
  • Japan Post Bank (7182) – The Flow Calendar
  • AAG Energy (2686 HK): Solid Results Amplify the Risk of the NO Vote
  • An Increasing Probability of LG Corp Preferred Shares Cancellation
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Narrowing the Gap
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March ‘23 Report

Link REIT (823) – Anchors Aweigh! Fair Weather Sailing Ahead

By Travis Lundy


Toshiba (6502) – Funding Possibly Re-Secured, Deal Possibly In Play,

By Travis Lundy

  • Bloomberg has an article today after the close saying Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s board will meet tomorrow to discuss the JIP bid, and the Special Committee will give its recommendations. 
  • The article suggests the Board may proceed with a vote. If they do, an announced bid could come as early as the afternoon.
  • The world is quite volatile now, and funding is probably more precious today than yesterday. But a bid is too. All in all, I see no reason for a position. 

Anycolor (5032 JP) Shows Its Colours – Great Quarter Guys! and TOPIX-Bound

By Travis Lundy

  • Anycolor (5032 JP) reported Q3 results today. 9mo Revenue is now above the lower end of original forecasts for the full-year. 9mo OP is 25% higher than the original mid-range.
  • The net profit forecast is now up 51% from the original mid-range, and up 128% on the year. The stock has cratered. Badly. 
  • It is now 19x April 2023 earnings for 90% revenue growth and 150% Net Profit growth and 40% OPM in the last quarter. Go figure.

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Full-Year Results Lay Bare Xinjiang Xintai’s Low-Balled Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17 February, AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) announced an Offer of HK$1.85/share (declared final) by way of a Scheme from major shareholder Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH).
  • At a 10.1% premium to undisturbed and just a 2.2% premium over the highest closing price of HK$1.81/share in the past year, the Consideration price was unreasonable. 
  • FY22 numbers are now out, which further illustrates the Offer price’s inadequacy. AAG’s trailing PER and EV/EBITDA are  3.6x and 1.4x. Net cash accounts for 41% of AAG’s market cap.

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Lake Materials (281740) To Replace Kuk Il Paper (078130)

By Brian Freitas

  • Following Kuk Il Paper Mfg (078130 KS)‘s designation as an Administrative Issue, the stock will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index and replaced with Lake Materials (281740 KS).
  • The timing of the index change is currently uncertain but will be implemented latest by the close of trading on 6 April.
  • Lake Materials (281740 KS) was up today and is nearing its highs. There could be another leg higher on the inclusion but we’d be wary of chasing the stock higher.

Japan Post Bank (7182) – The Flow Calendar

By Travis Lundy

  • The near-term Supply/Demand Balance is helped or hurt – depending on how well the deal has been placed to retail, by overseas bank turmoil. 
  • Quality of placement to retail is tough to know from outside. We have near-term offsets with both index demand and dividend looming.
  • The biggest near-term differentiator in possible supply/demand outcomes is, of course, in the hands of the TSE Index team. And we just don’t know.

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Solid Results Amplify the Risk of the NO Vote

By Arun George

  • Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) released solid FY22 results which magnify the scheme risk of Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)‘s pre-conditional privatisation offer of HK$1.85 per share.
  • The FY22 metrics show that the offer values AAG at a lower EV/1P Reserve and EV/Production vs the 2018 offer. It is unattractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples.
  • The solid FY22 results and lack of dividends amplify the risk that minorities vote NO. The downside is capped as the shares are trading below the undisturbed price.

An Increasing Probability of LG Corp Preferred Shares Cancellation

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss an increasing probability of the cancellation of LG Corp preferred shares.
  • We provide five major reasons as to why LG Corp should cancel its entire preferred shares and how this could have a positive impact on LG Corp’s share price. 
  • We believe a 5-10% buyback and cancellation of LG Corp’s preferred shares in the next 1-2 years is a higher probability.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Narrowing the Gap

By Brian Freitas

  • Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.28% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.95bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last two months but have underperformed the potential deletes. The gap has been narrowing recently.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March ‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).
  • Trade preferences long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
  • Trade preferences long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.

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Daily Brief Macro: The Philippines:  Asia Ex-Japan Fund Allocations Hit All-Time Low and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Philippines:  Asia Ex-Japan Fund Allocations Hit All-Time Low
  • 5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil
  • Introducing the US Inflation Monitor: Why the Fed Must Lift Rates Further
  • Mean Reversion
  • UK: Imagining Spurious Fiscal Space

The Philippines:  Asia Ex-Japan Fund Allocations Hit All-Time Low

By Steven Holden

  • Philippines ownership falls to record lows among active Asia Ex-Japan managers.
  • Only 58% of Asia Ex-Japan managers now have exposure, with most holding less than a 3% portfolio weight.
  • Shrinking benchmark weights and a dwindling active investor base means it is becoming ever easier to avoid Philippines exposure entirely.  

5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil

By Andreas Steno

  • On Friday, Silicon Valley Bank – the then 16th largest bank in the US – came to feel the ramifications of hazardous (if even existing) risk management 
  • The Fed has posed the option of a discount window for banks in distress to mitigate contagion risks. Banks with large holdings of HTM-portfolios may be better off than others
  • We find reasons to worry about the banks with a large exposure to Commercial Real Estate in these times of funding stress – due to contagious effects from the crisis.

Introducing the US Inflation Monitor: Why the Fed Must Lift Rates Further

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The 3-month annualized inflation rate increased for every inflation measure included in the US Inflation Monitor.
  • The closely watched Core Services ex Housing/Shelter CPI numbers have barely come down in recent months and remain above both Headline and Core CPI.
  • Based on the latest CPI report the Federal Reserve will have no other option than to continue hiking rates. But banking contagions risks may become the dominant policy driver soon.

Mean Reversion

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets.
  • Two bank failures in the US, and we go from No Landing to Crash Landing.
  • The three days move in 2-year yields was the most significant drop since 1987 and a $ 485 billion loss in banks’ market cap.

UK: Imagining Spurious Fiscal Space

By Phil Rush

  • The UK Budget cancelled energy price hikes, as expected. Investment and pension allowance reforms neutralise borrowing changes between 2024 and 2026.
  • Residual fiscal space beyond that is politically desirable to keep for a pre-election giveaway. However, it may not exist outside of the OBR’s imagination.
  • Sustained brisk potential growth creates excess supply in the OBR view of 1Q23. Without that, GDP and revenues will underperform, further prolonging high debt issuance.

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