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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service, Sunny Optical, Vedanta Resources, Wynn Macau Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service, Sunny Optical, Vedanta Resources, Wynn Macau Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Feb 10
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Daily Brief ESG: Quality Issues Are a Common Challenge for TSE Market Restructuring and Corporate Governance Reform and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Quality Issues Are a Common Challenge for TSE Market Restructuring and Corporate Governance Reform

Quality Issues Are a Common Challenge for TSE Market Restructuring and Corporate Governance Reform

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There seems to be consensus on the end of the transitional measures in 3 years. Even if this issue is finally settled, the issue of prime market quality will remain.
  • There’s no better solution to raise stock price than for companies to develop their own strategies and expand corporate value. TSE should promote metabolism and improve quality of the market.
  • If the quality of corporate governance is an issue, it is necessary to encourage change in boards that are dominated by male internal executive directors and lack diversity.

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Feb 10
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Daily Brief ECM: Hesai Group IPO Trading – Managed to Break the Drought and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hesai Group IPO Trading – Managed to Break the Drought
  • Discussing the Timing of the Samsung SDS Block Deal by Lee Seo-Hyun
  • Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuations
  • Oasis Corp IPO Preliminary Book Building Results
  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Hesai Group IPO Trading – Managed to Break the Drought

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) (HSAI) raised around US$190m in its US IPO.
  • HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.

Discussing the Timing of the Samsung SDS Block Deal by Lee Seo-Hyun

By Sanghyun Park

  • The term of Lee’s trust contract with Hana Bank is from February 2nd to April 28th, and the volume is 1.95% of SO, the total remaining quantity owned by Lee.
  • The price movement on the day the previous block deals by the Lee family were executed was substantial. Of particular note is that SDS showed the most significant price impact.
  • We should focus on the possibility that a block deal will come to the market much earlier, as SDS is in short-term overbought territory from a valuation perspective.

Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuations

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mankind Pharma is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
  • We have looked at the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Oasis Corp IPO Preliminary Book Building Results

By Douglas Kim

  • The local media mentioned that the preliminary book building results of the Oasis IPO were terrible. 
  • Therefore, the company is likely to either materially lower the IPO price range or postpone the IPO altogether.
  • Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is target price of 24,847 won per share, which is 18.5% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 

Dekon Food and Agriculture Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (DFAG CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Citibank.  
  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (DFAG) is a livestock and poultry breeding and farming enterprise in China, focusing on the breeding and farming of pigs and yellow-feathered broilers. 
  • As of 30th Sep 2022, its business footprint covered 39 cities across 12 provinces and autonomous regions in China. 

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Equity Losses Again on Rate Hike Refocus;Japan Earnings Deluge>500 Stocks on Tap and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Equity Losses Again on Rate Hike Refocus;Japan Earnings Deluge>500 Stocks on Tap

Good Morning Japan |Equity Losses Again on Rate Hike Refocus;Japan Earnings Deluge>500 Stocks on Tap

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Back to Macro US Equities Refocus on Rate rises; SPX breaches 4100 support; US 2Yr Yields hit 2.5% – need to watch this;  TESLA back as shares Px doubles!
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.62; New BOJ Governor nominees  by Feb 14; Apple/Google warned  by Japan FTC;  Earnings Festival: Positive TEL; Renesas; Nippon Steel
  • DAILY NUGGET. Chart of the Day: Tokyo Electron(8035) share price has underperformed vs US Peer AMAT. BTE Results could close the Gap

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. 
  • January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Macro: EA: Germany Pushes Jan-23 HICP Revision and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EA: Germany Pushes Jan-23 HICP Revision

EA: Germany Pushes Jan-23 HICP Revision

By Phil Rush

  • Germany’s postponed flash HICP release crashed to 9.2% y-o-y in Jan-23. Although that was 0.8pp below the consensus, it was within 2bps of our energy-depressed forecast.
  • Eurostat’s estimate was far below the mark. Updating for Germany’s outcome adds about 18bps to the EA. Country weight changes and revisions may yet vary that impact.
  • We see the news in the EA special aggregates primarily in energy, with services and industrial goods offsetting in the core. The ECB should not shift its goalpost on this.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR: Mostly In-Line; Couple of Surprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR: Mostly In-Line; Couple of Surprises
  • Adani Group – MSCI Will Treat Very Adani Funds as a Very Special Case
  • Toshiba – The Nikkei Finally Speaks
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part
  • Haw Par Corp Is Still Trading Cheap
  • CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable
  • Korea Spin-Offs: Details and KOSPI200 Index Impact
  • Renesas – Good Results, Great Cashflow, Another Buyback, But Drift.
  • Kingston Financial (1031 HK) Scheme: That Is a Pass
  • HYBE to Acquire a 39.8% Stake in SM Entertainment

MSCI Feb 2023 QCIR: Mostly In-Line; Couple of Surprises

By Brian Freitas

  • MSCI has announced the changes for the February QCIR. For Asia Pacific, there are 20 adds and 14 deletes for the MSCI Standard Index with the most changes in China.
  • There are no surprises on the adds or deletes. However, there are a couple of stocks that are surprises on not being added to or deleted from the index.
  • The largest impact will be on Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ) – though there will be pre-positioning on the stock.

Adani Group – MSCI Will Treat Very Adani Funds as a Very Special Case

By Travis Lundy

  • Shortly after the Hindenburg Report came out, MSCI said it was seeking feedback from clients. They got it, and last night announced they would conduct a special review. 
  • They concluded some holders heretofore in the float might not be float. They announce results tonight. That can only be bad news for Adani Group companies. 
  • We don’t know numbers yet, but passive inclusion was one reason why stocks skyrocketed. Few of the companies will be unaffected. Some could be heavily affected.

Toshiba – The Nikkei Finally Speaks

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei was out this morning with its belated take on JIP securing financing. 
  • The article was nevertheless rather negative in its tone causing Toshiba to drop as much as 3.6% before recovering most of those losses. 
  • We aren’t entirely sure it should have but Toshiba Tec does pique our interest.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)’s Board.
  • Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).
  • The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.

Haw Par Corp Is Still Trading Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last November I highlighted Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)‘s multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/UOB (UOB SP) ratio.
  • That trade has panned out well as the ratio steadily increased. But it remains below the 200 MDA.
  • A recovery in Tiger Balm sales is expected in Haw Par’s full-year results later this month.  UOB’s financials, and UOL (UOL SP)‘s, are also due out this month.

CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable

By Clarence Chu

  • CATL (A) (300750 CH) is looking to raise up to US$6bn in its upcoming Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC, China Securities, Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
  • The relatively large listing comes after the firm has been undertaking a series of capital raisings, since it’s A-share debut back in Jun 2018, to fund its expansion. 
  • In this note, we discuss GDR timelines, and the firm’s recent financial performance/valuations.

Korea Spin-Offs: Details and KOSPI200 Index Impact

By Brian Freitas

Renesas – Good Results, Great Cashflow, Another Buyback, But Drift.

By Travis Lundy

  • Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) today reported full-year 2022 earnings with revenues 0.032% higher than the high end of guidance, which was better than consensus. OP was not as good.
  • They have guided Q1 only, with revenues up 0.2-4.6%, and non-GAAP GPM -3.9% to 54.5%, and OPM -6.6% to 32.5%. But they also announced a Tender Offer Buyback. 
  • The buyback is smaller than I’d like, but the company has added cash despite last year’s tender offer and repaying bank borrowings. Lots to like here. 

Kingston Financial (1031 HK) Scheme: That Is a Pass

By Arun George

  • Kingston Financial (1031 HK)’s scheme resolution was approved at today’s scheme meeting – 99.89% of independent share votes cast FOR (0.09% of all independent shareholders AGAINST).
  • The scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 44 FOR and 13 AGAINST the scheme (56 FOR and 20 AGAINST on a look-through basis).  
  • The last trading is on 10 February. At the last close and for the 3 March payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.4% and 69.3%, respectively. 

HYBE to Acquire a 39.8% Stake in SM Entertainment

By Douglas Kim

  • On 10 February (prior to market open), Seoul Economic Daily reported that HYBE will conduct a tender offer of SM Entertainment shares taking over the controlling ownership of the company.
  • HYBE agreed to acquire a 14.8% stake from SM Entertainment’s founder Lee Soo-Man at 120,000 won per share, which represents a 21.8% premium to the closing price on 9 February.
  • HYBE is also conducting a tender offer to minority shareholders and it plans to acquire up to 25% additional shares at 120,000 won per share, representing 717 billion won.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Playmates Toys: Betting on Paramount’s New Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle (TMNT) Movie and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Playmates Toys: Betting on Paramount’s New Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle (TMNT) Movie
  • Tokyo Electron (8035) | MAGIC Drivers
  • Baidu (Bidu.US): AIGC to Bring More Potential and Empower Search Biz
  • NTT (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter but Solid Mobile/Data Performance
  • LVMH: Long-Term Winner
  • The 2023 Box Office Looks Promising
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Positive Vibes on Micro Growth and Reach
  • Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) – Catching the Updraft in 2023
  • PPIH – Consensus Is Discounting Personal Brands Potential
  • Nayuki (2150 HK) Rating Change: Broaden Addressable Market Is Priority No.1

Playmates Toys: Betting on Paramount’s New Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle (TMNT) Movie

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Playmates Toys (869 HK) has been listed since 2008 and makes TMNT toys. It has traded as high as 4 HKD/share on the back of successful TMNT movie launches
  • Paramount is set to launch a highly anticipated Seth Rogen-produced, TMNT movie in August 2023. In 2013/2014 the stock went up 8x on the last successful TMNT movie launch
  • Playmates Toys trades at negative enterprise value, hence giving a large margin of safety option to bet on the success of a TMNT revival

Tokyo Electron (8035) | MAGIC Drivers

By Mark Chadwick

  • TEL 3QF23 operating profit -26% YoY to Y115b, beating analyst estimates
  • Full year operating profit guidance revised up Y546->Y580b, ahead of Street estimates
  • MAGIC – Metaverse, Autonomous mobility, Greentech, IoT, Communication Services – to drive long-term semicon demand

Baidu (Bidu.US): AIGC to Bring More Potential and Empower Search Biz

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Baidu’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line would miss cons. by (1.6%)/(3.1%), mostly driven by the temporal disturbance of increasing COVID cases after reopening in Dec. 2022. 
  • However, we remain optimistic about 2023 outlook: 1) Baidu’s ads would be recovering quickly in 1H23 as macro improves, and 2) leading position in AIGC development gives Baidu more potential.
  • Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$170, implying 17.2X PE in 2023

NTT (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter but Solid Mobile/Data Performance

By Kirk Boodry

  • Segment results for DoCoMo and NTT Data were impressive as NTT plans to restructure both businesses start to bear fruit
  • DoCoMo is also leading MNOs in moving past the impact of regulatory driven price reductions with Q3 service revenue largely flat YoY supported by 5G upsell and subscriber wins
  • Rising utility costs have had a material impact on profitability for NTT East and West but management believes upside in other areas and cost discipline provides some offset

LVMH: Long-Term Winner

By Alexis Dwek

  • LVMH’s sales’ growth is supported by a rebound in China, resumption of Chinese outbound travel, resilient US demand and higher marketing investments in 2H22 which should bear fruit this year.
  • The Company holds leading market positions in each of its brands, as it benefits from substantial financial backing to invest and innovate.
  • The Company has a high-quality management with decades of experience!

The 2023 Box Office Looks Promising

By Michael Fritzell

  • The cinema industry has been suffering from COVID-19 restrictions, in particular social distancing measures that have kept cinema operating rates low.
  • Now that the release pipeline looks strong again, cinemas will be on a path to recovery. I doubt that the global box office will reach the 2019 level this year, but it will get closer to that number.
  • Cinema operators worth mentioning include North America’s Cinemark, Cineplex and Marcus Corporation, China’s IMAX China and Thailand’s Major Cineplex.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Positive Vibes on Micro Growth and Reach

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) did not disappoint with a strong set of FY2022 results, which came in around  4% above expectations, driven by strong micro and expanding NIMS.
  • The bank also saw improving credit costs and declining provisions, which helped to drive profits and returns close to pre-pandemic levels plus the bank continues its advance on digitalisation. 
  • Bank Rakyat will drive growth through MSME lending, which now makes up 82.5% of loans, with micro and ultra-micro having significant upsides. Valuations are attractive on 2.1x FY2023 PBV.

Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) – Catching the Updraft in 2023

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Blue Bird is an iconic brand in Indonesia, where consumers take a BlueBird not a taxi, much like taking a Gojek, and in taxi terms, it embodies trust and reliability. 
  • The company had a tough time through COVID but is now firmly on a recovery track, with revenue per taxi in 4Q2022 20% above pre-pandemic levels, with more to come.
  • Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is a beneficiary of the tech winter in that ride-hailing companies are spending less on promotions, easing competition. Valuations are attractive in recovery.

PPIH – Consensus Is Discounting Personal Brands Potential

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s 2QFY23 was a touch above consensus with revenue at ¥504.8bn (consensus: ¥497.6bn) and OP at ¥33.6bn (consensus: ¥30.3bn).
  • With consensus cautious about personal brands potential, earnings have beaten consensus in each of the past five quarters.
  • Having already proven the personal brands earnings potential, we think it is unwarranted for consensus to discount PPIH’s personal brands growth.

Nayuki (2150 HK) Rating Change: Broaden Addressable Market Is Priority No.1

By Shawn Yang

  • Nayuki bears the most resemblance to Starbucks in that it owns its stores and provides drink, food and space, yet its appealed audience is the narrowest; 
  • Shopping mall opening might hit an all-time low in 2023 and is saturated. Nayuki need to think new ways to broaden its targeted market;
  • We downgrade Nayuki to SELL and lower TP from HK$13.9 to HK3.1

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Lippo Karawaci and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Lippo Karawaci

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Lippo Karawaci

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief United States: New Ruipeng Pet Group, Nitro Software Ltd, A10 Networks, Fiserv Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • New Ruipeng Pet Group Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Largest Domestic Player, but Smallest Margins
  • Nitro Software: Potentia Still In The Mix As DD Granted
  • ATEN: The Inevitable Push Out
  • Fiserv: Market Sentiment Is Catching Up After Recent Earnings

New Ruipeng Pet Group Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Largest Domestic Player, but Smallest Margins

By Clarence Chu

  • New Ruipeng Pet Group (RPET US) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • New Ruipeng Pet Group (Ruipeng) is a pet services platform, primarily offering pet care services, supply chain services and local services, covering the entire lifecycle of pets. 
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Nitro Software: Potentia Still In The Mix As DD Granted

By David Blennerhassett

  • Adobe rival Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has granted Potentia Capital due diligence through to the 22 February on the possibility it sweetens its Offer to A$2.20-A$2.30/share. 
  • Alludo’s hands are tied to its A$2.15/share Offer price, which it has declared ‘best and final’ and will not be increased – even if a superior proposal emerges.
  • But Potentia pitching an Offer A$0.01/share above Alludo’s Offer won’t be sufficient for Alludo and other shareholders to tender. 

ATEN: The Inevitable Push Out

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN reported better than expected fourth quarter results, but it was the lack of quantitative revenue guidance that garnering all the attention
  • We had highlighted increased macro risks in our January update leading to 2023 becoming dependent on the second half of the year.
  • The first quarter is seasonally the slowest period of the year for ATEN, which could be the reason for management taking a conservative approach with 2023 guidance.

Fiserv: Market Sentiment Is Catching Up After Recent Earnings

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Fiserv’s latest quarterly results were largely expected, and yet the market seemed to be caught off guard.
  • Fiserv remains well-positioned to outperform most of its peers and the broader equity market in 2023, according to the company’s latest results.
  • Fiserv (NASDAQ:FISV) is often seen as a slow-growth business with a significant share of legacy services and challenged profitability

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