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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Utilities: Electricite De France Sa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • République Française/​​EDF: Squeeze-Out

République Française/​​EDF: Squeeze-Out

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 6 July, the French Prime Minister said that France would have 100% of EDF. I recommended BUY at €8.98 in the wake of a very willing big-pocketed buyer.
  • The French state now holds 92.71% of voting rights in EDF, and intends to initiate the squeeze-out within three months from closing (up to 22 March).
  • Although the shares are still liquid, gross spread is 0-2 bps, and therefore there is no trade worth considering, in my view, just selling into the sustained purchase order/await squeeze-out.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Takeda Pharmaceutical, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, Medlab Clinical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition
  • Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) – The Business, the Outlook and the Challenges
  • Medlab Clinical – NanaBis development centre stage in 2023

Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda announced Monday that it has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED (China) for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.
  • Takeda will pay HUTCHMED $400m upfront and up to $730m in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales.
  • Fruquintinib was approved in China in 2018, is a highly selective, oral VEGFR1/2/3 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor and offers potential new treatment option for patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) – The Business, the Outlook and the Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Zadaxin has been the biggest performance driver of SciClone, but it would face the risk of losing market share and increased pricing pressures after generic drugs were included in VBP.
  • SciClone is primarily a pharmaceutical development/sales company, rather than a research-based innovative drug company.The increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products has made the capital “reconsider” and be more rational.
  • SciClone is a good stock for short-term trade, especially by taking advantage of the positive momentum after it reaches licensing deals/launches new products, but we’re concerned about its long-term prospects.

Medlab Clinical – NanaBis development centre stage in 2023

By Edison Investment Research

As Medlab Clinical moves into 2023, the expected commencement of a Phase III trial for NanaBis (the company’s cannabinoid based analgesic therapy) in cancer-induced bone pain will be the focus for investors. Management made considerable progress towards Phase III in 2022, by switching to a purely synthetic cannabinoid formulation and gathering encouraging real-world data on NanaBis use. We believe these actions should maximise the potential for NanaBis in both a regulatory and a commercial setting. We note that successful progression of the company’s programmes will be contingent on Medlab’s ability to raise capital, given the short cash runway (funded into March 2023) and recent setback with the Nasdaq listing plans. We update our estimates to reflect the financing risk and macro uncertainty, resulting in our valuation decreasing to A$183.5m or A$80.4/share, from A$236.1m or A$103.5/share.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Warrego Energy, Pidilite Industries, Natural Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March
  • The Commodity Report #87

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

By Arun George

  • Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.
  • Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
  • A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

By Brian Freitas


The Commodity Report #87

By The Commodity Report

  • Sentiment is very important when it comes to trading any financial asset. In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs seems to be still a bit too optimistic for me.
  • This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie, the head of commodities at the investment bank, said at a presentation in London on Monday.
  • But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Universal Entertainment, Naspers Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business
  • Universal Entertainment of Japan: IPO for Its Manila Casino Draws Closer
  • Naspers: Looming Concerns

Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • New York-based hedge fund ValueAct has told Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)’s shareholders to support them in their bid to spin off the 7-Eleven US convenience store business.
  • Spinning off the only growth driver of the business does not seem like an idea that Seven & I or its shareholders are likely to entertain.
  • We fear that ValueAct could be looking for reasons to call-off its investor-activism-campaign and perhaps is trying to squeeze out every last bit of gains as it exits its positions.

Universal Entertainment of Japan: IPO for Its Manila Casino Draws Closer

By Howard J Klein

  • The long, tortured legal mess between Universal and its ousted founder over control of its lucrative Manila integrated casino resort now has a clear path to its spin off IPO.
  • The Okada Manila resort is among the sector leaders in the burgeoning Philippines gaming market now ramping rapidly toward full GGR recovery.
  • At UE’s current price of 2,347jpy, the stock bears a built in premium of a Spac IPO now appearing to be pointed to debut this year.

Naspers: Looming Concerns

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Naspers’ South African ventures exhibit solid growth, but an inflection point awaits, according to the company.
  • The company’s exposure to China’s reopening is a roll of the dice, says Naspers.
  • Naspers’ (OTCPK:NPSNY) stock has climbed by more than 20% in the past month, subsequently luring investors’ attention.

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Daily Brief Financials: Sabana Industrial REIT, KB Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT – Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix
  • Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT – Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, after the close, 5.4% owner of Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) announced it had offered to buy another 10.0% in a Partial Offer at a recent high price.
  • The Price of the Tender Offer at S$0.465/share matches a recent (and 7-year) high and a 0.88x multiple against June 2022 NAV of S$0.53/share.
  • It’s a small deal (US$35mm) for a small REIT (US$350mm) but there’s an activist and an engaged not-quite sponsor, and this would make a third large unitholder in the mix.

Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.
  • They include Align Partners Capital Management, KCGI, Flashlight Capital Partners, Truston, and LIFE Asset Management.
  • Share prices of 15 companies that the corporate activist firms have invested in Korea are up on average 9.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 7.1% in the same period.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Internet Weekly (23Jan2023): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Internet Weekly (23Jan2023): Tencent, Meituan, NetEase, Activision Blizzard
  • Universal Entertainment of Japan: IPO for Its Manila Casino Draws Closer
  • Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition
  • Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) – The Business, the Outlook and the Challenges
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dutch & Japan China Restrictions End-January, Realtek Results Show Pain in PCs
  • Medlab Clinical – NanaBis development centre stage in 2023
  • Naspers: Looming Concerns

China Internet Weekly (23Jan2023): Tencent, Meituan, NetEase, Activision Blizzard

By Ming Lu

  • The authorities approved three of Tencent’s games in January 2023 after five in December 2022.
  • Tencent closed its XR business and terminated a property rental contract.
  • NetEase refused to extend service for Activision Blizzard for additional six months.

Universal Entertainment of Japan: IPO for Its Manila Casino Draws Closer

By Howard J Klein

  • The long, tortured legal mess between Universal and its ousted founder over control of its lucrative Manila integrated casino resort now has a clear path to its spin off IPO.
  • The Okada Manila resort is among the sector leaders in the burgeoning Philippines gaming market now ramping rapidly toward full GGR recovery.
  • At UE’s current price of 2,347jpy, the stock bears a built in premium of a Spac IPO now appearing to be pointed to debut this year.

Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda announced Monday that it has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED (China) for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.
  • Takeda will pay HUTCHMED $400m upfront and up to $730m in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales.
  • Fruquintinib was approved in China in 2018, is a highly selective, oral VEGFR1/2/3 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor and offers potential new treatment option for patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) – The Business, the Outlook and the Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Zadaxin has been the biggest performance driver of SciClone, but it would face the risk of losing market share and increased pricing pressures after generic drugs were included in VBP.
  • SciClone is primarily a pharmaceutical development/sales company, rather than a research-based innovative drug company.The increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products has made the capital “reconsider” and be more rational.
  • SciClone is a good stock for short-term trade, especially by taking advantage of the positive momentum after it reaches licensing deals/launches new products, but we’re concerned about its long-term prospects.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dutch & Japan China Restrictions End-January, Realtek Results Show Pain in PCs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • New China semiconductor restrictions could be announced by the Netherlands and Japan by end-January.
  • Realtek 4Q22 results — Signals weakness for companies serving the PC market, and could get worse in 1Q23E.
  • Western Digital & Kioxia could merge NAND flash units to create a rival to Samsung.

Medlab Clinical – NanaBis development centre stage in 2023

By Edison Investment Research

As Medlab Clinical moves into 2023, the expected commencement of a Phase III trial for NanaBis (the company’s cannabinoid based analgesic therapy) in cancer-induced bone pain will be the focus for investors. Management made considerable progress towards Phase III in 2022, by switching to a purely synthetic cannabinoid formulation and gathering encouraging real-world data on NanaBis use. We believe these actions should maximise the potential for NanaBis in both a regulatory and a commercial setting. We note that successful progression of the company’s programmes will be contingent on Medlab’s ability to raise capital, given the short cash runway (funded into March 2023) and recent setback with the Nasdaq listing plans. We update our estimates to reflect the financing risk and macro uncertainty, resulting in our valuation decreasing to A$183.5m or A$80.4/share, from A$236.1m or A$103.5/share.


Naspers: Looming Concerns

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Naspers’ South African ventures exhibit solid growth, but an inflection point awaits, according to the company.
  • The company’s exposure to China’s reopening is a roll of the dice, says Naspers.
  • Naspers’ (OTCPK:NPSNY) stock has climbed by more than 20% in the past month, subsequently luring investors’ attention.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business
  • Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT – Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix
  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Fires Another Salvo at the Board
  • Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios
  • Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE
  • République Française/​​EDF: Squeeze-Out
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • New York-based hedge fund ValueAct has told Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)’s shareholders to support them in their bid to spin off the 7-Eleven US convenience store business.
  • Spinning off the only growth driver of the business does not seem like an idea that Seven & I or its shareholders are likely to entertain.
  • We fear that ValueAct could be looking for reasons to call-off its investor-activism-campaign and perhaps is trying to squeeze out every last bit of gains as it exits its positions.

Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT – Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, after the close, 5.4% owner of Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) announced it had offered to buy another 10.0% in a Partial Offer at a recent high price.
  • The Price of the Tender Offer at S$0.465/share matches a recent (and 7-year) high and a 0.88x multiple against June 2022 NAV of S$0.53/share.
  • It’s a small deal (US$35mm) for a small REIT (US$350mm) but there’s an activist and an engaged not-quite sponsor, and this would make a third large unitholder in the mix.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): YFO Fires Another Salvo at the Board

By Arun George

  • Due to the inability of getting a fair hearing from Toyo Construction (1890 JP)’s Board, YFO’s strategy now is to replace some of the Board at the June AGM.  
  • YFO’s latest press release also catalogues the Board’s shockingly poor corporate governance in relation to its tender offer at JPY1,000. Crucially, a special committee is yet to be formed. 
  • There is no timeline update on the tender which was set to start in late January. YFO continues to maintain that it will not withdraw its proposal.

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

By Arun George

  • Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.
  • Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
  • A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.

Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.
  • They include Align Partners Capital Management, KCGI, Flashlight Capital Partners, Truston, and LIFE Asset Management.
  • Share prices of 15 companies that the corporate activist firms have invested in Korea are up on average 9.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 7.1% in the same period.

République Française/​​EDF: Squeeze-Out

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 6 July, the French Prime Minister said that France would have 100% of EDF. I recommended BUY at €8.98 in the wake of a very willing big-pocketed buyer.
  • The French state now holds 92.71% of voting rights in EDF, and intends to initiate the squeeze-out within three months from closing (up to 22 March).
  • Although the shares are still liquid, gross spread is 0-2 bps, and therefore there is no trade worth considering, in my view, just selling into the sustained purchase order/await squeeze-out.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE – Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE – Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper

Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE – Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.2% but all Action in Tech as SOX +5.5%; Barclay Sector upgrade spurs Semis; Fed Hikes in the rear view for now; Watch Copper – supply risks+China demand
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.65; Where US goes, Japan will follow: All about Tech; Kishida speech: Nuclear Power, Defense, Child support in focus; Wage hikes gather steam.
  • DAILY NUGGET. Davos  on board with the coming of the Metaverse. We highlight this and think there are near term challenges.

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Daily Brief Crypto: FTT Returns From the Dead and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTT Returns From the Dead

FTT Returns From the Dead

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: BTC gained another 10% this week despite news that Genesis had filed for bankruptcy, with a reported $5bn in liabilities.
  • Market Liquidity: Trade volume on the largest Asia-based exchanges fell to multi-year lows amid a tough regulatory environment in the region. 
  • Derivatives: BTC open interest has dropped 25% as a short squeeze hits derivatives traders.

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Daily Brief Macro: The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Semen Indonesia Solid and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Semen Indonesia Solid, Kalbe for Longer, and CPALL’s Ticking
  • China’s Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?
  • The Commodity Report #87

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Semen Indonesia Solid, Kalbe for Longer, and CPALL’s Ticking

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. 
  • The Past week saw insights on Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB), as well as an initial view on Pertamina Geothermal’s IPO.
  • In addition, there was commentary South East Asia’s Food Delivery business plus Olam Group (OLG SP)‘s plans to unlock value through an IPO of Olam Agri, and a lot more. 

China’s Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country’s preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
  • The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators’ long-term China investment thesis.
  • It’s still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.

The Commodity Report #87

By The Commodity Report

  • Sentiment is very important when it comes to trading any financial asset. In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs seems to be still a bit too optimistic for me.
  • This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie, the head of commodities at the investment bank, said at a presentation in London on Monday.
  • But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said. 

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