Smartkarma Daily Briefs

ChatGPT is a mind boggling advancement in AI-human communication. I recommend EVERY reader of this insight to try out this service.
This insight on ChatGPT has three parts: First, I discuss the basics of ChatGPT and valuations. Second, I provide 13 examples of questions or requests that I made to ChatGPT.
Third, I discuss some key investment opportunities that could capitalize on all the “buzz” surrounding ChatGPT at this moment.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).
We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.
•Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn
HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher
StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO
Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?
Fengxiang (9977 HK): Delisting Resolution Fails, MGO Closes 1 February
JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent – Decent Conviction to Not Be Long
S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions
KOSPI 200 Rebalance: JB Financial In & Meritz F&M Insurance Out

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn

LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO, after pricing at the top-end of the IPO price range.
The stock was listed on 27th Jan 22. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher

By Brian Freitas

Foreign shareholding in HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped over the December quarter resulting in higher foreign room.
The merger is expected to complete in Q2/Q3 when we expect there will be large buying from MSCI trackers.
The merger (and the timing of implementation) will have implications for changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the forthcoming rebalances.

StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO

7-11 play CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor versus cash & carry subsidiary Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB).
Preceding my comments on CPALL/MAKRO are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?

Hanwha Aerospace is still narrowly across the borderline. It is especially painful that the share price was corrected by more than 4% today.
But suppose the cutoff MC is set at less than ₩2.7T, and Aerospace succeeds in recovering slightly. In that case, it will likely manage to come within the borderline.
Given that the preemptive flow must not have been significant and the profit forecast has been upwards until recently, a price shooting may appear at the time of the announcement.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Delisting Resolution Fails, MGO Closes 1 February

By Arun George

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)‘s delisting resolution was overwhelmingly voted against by independent H Shareholders. The results were not helped by the poor turnout.
PAG’s MGO at HK$1.5132 per H Share is not conditional on the approval of the delisting resolution. The MGO remains open with a final closing date of 1 February.
PAG currently holds 85.44% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for a 10 February payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.6% and 28.9%, respectively.

JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent – Decent Conviction to Not Be Long

The Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) Greenmail Tender Offer to take Murakami-san out of his position is nearing its close.
Investors should make a decision imminently about where they believe the stock should trade in Price/NAV terms after the buyback is complete, once management is “stabilised.”
My earlier piece written on the day of the announcement needs a few corrections. Those are below.

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.
Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could be added and Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) could be deleted from the SENSEX Index. There could be multiple changes for BSE 100, 200, and 500.
Below is a look at our estimated rankings for potential ADDs/DELs, their recent price performance vs peers, and potential trading opportunities.

KOSPI 200 Rebalance: JB Financial In & Meritz F&M Insurance Out

On 18 January, the KRX announced rebalance to KOSPI 200 index. The new addition to KOSPI 200 is JB Financial Group and the deletion is Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance.
We expect JB Financial to continue to outperform the market in the first half of this year.
However, we do not expect the sharp appreciation of JB Financial versus the other leading Korean banking stocks post JB Financial’s inclusion in KOSPI 200 on 30 January.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Financials: HDFC Bank, Jafco Co Ltd, Bitcoin, Lippo Karawaci, Jb Financial Group, Howard Hughes Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher
JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent – Decent Conviction to Not Be Long
Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)
Lippo Karawaci – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
KOSPI 200 Rebalance: JB Financial In & Meritz F&M Insurance Out
HHC: Starting the Year Reinvesting

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher

By Brian Freitas

Foreign shareholding in HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped over the December quarter resulting in higher foreign room.
The merger is expected to complete in Q2/Q3 when we expect there will be large buying from MSCI trackers.
The merger (and the timing of implementation) will have implications for changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the forthcoming rebalances.

JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent – Decent Conviction to Not Be Long

The Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) Greenmail Tender Offer to take Murakami-san out of his position is nearing its close.
Investors should make a decision imminently about where they believe the stock should trade in Price/NAV terms after the buyback is complete, once management is “stabilised.”
My earlier piece written on the day of the announcement needs a few corrections. Those are below.

Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).
We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.
•Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.

Lippo Karawaci – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

On 11 January 2023, Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) launched a cash tender offer for the USD 405 mn LPKRIJ 8.125% 25 and USD 417 mn LPKRIJ 6.75% 26. The early tender consideration for the 2025 and 2026 notes is USD 870 and USD 770 per USD 1,000 principal, respectively. The company will fund the tender offer with an IDR 6.0 tn (c. USD 380 mn) seven-year amortising secured credit facility by two local banks. The total tender amount will be up to the size of the credit facility (which is secured over land and some buildings).

We recommend to tender the USD LPKRIJ 2025 and 2026 notes. The amount of secured debt will increase significantly if the transaction is completed, and will likely account for the majority of LPKR’s total debt. The offering prices are somewhat in line with market prices. Hence, it is better to tender the notes, as the bonds may have lower recovery values.

KOSPI 200 Rebalance: JB Financial In & Meritz F&M Insurance Out

On 18 January, the KRX announced rebalance to KOSPI 200 index. The new addition to KOSPI 200 is JB Financial Group and the deletion is Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance.
We expect JB Financial to continue to outperform the market in the first half of this year.
However, we do not expect the sharp appreciation of JB Financial versus the other leading Korean banking stocks post JB Financial’s inclusion in KOSPI 200 on 30 January.

HHC: Starting the Year Reinvesting

By Hamed Khorsand

The tender offer of a month ago has helped reduce the selling pressure on the shares of HHC and is bringing attention to the underlying asset value of the business
HHC’s MPCs have attracted more people causing the MPCs to reach optimal levels to sustain cash flow generation.
HHC’s ability to grow cash flow to reinvest into its MPCs should lead to greater earnings growth over the long-term.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Consumer: LG Energy Solution, Anycolor, CP ALL PCL, Shandong Fengxiang, Brilliance China Automotive, The Keepers Holdings, Calbee Inc, Rakuten Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn
Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering – Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name
StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO
Fengxiang (9977 HK): Delisting Resolution Fails, MGO Closes 1 February
Brilliance China: Special Dividend Amount Disappoints, but More Could Be on the Way
Keepers: Thoughts on the Move Up, More to Come Easy Double from Here
Calbee’s FY24 OP Is Bound to Exceed ¥30.0bn
Seiyu Plans ¥100 Billion Investment

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn

LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO, after pricing at the top-end of the IPO price range.
The stock was listed on 27th Jan 22. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note

Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering – Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name

In late December, I wrote 2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!. Shares closed at ¥6,470 that day. Then went to ¥5,500.
They have since rebounded some, and now 3 pre-IPO VC investors have announced an overseas offering. This was NOT unexpected. They need more shares to get their TSE Prime listing.
The Offering is 3.27mm shares which is 5-6 days of volume. This lifts the TSE Prime inclusion amount, eventually, but the story is still about growth and model.

StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO

7-11 play CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor versus cash & carry subsidiary Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB).
Preceding my comments on CPALL/MAKRO are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Delisting Resolution Fails, MGO Closes 1 February

By Arun George

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)‘s delisting resolution was overwhelmingly voted against by independent H Shareholders. The results were not helped by the poor turnout.
PAG’s MGO at HK$1.5132 per H Share is not conditional on the approval of the delisting resolution. The MGO remains open with a final closing date of 1 February.
PAG currently holds 85.44% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for a 10 February payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.6% and 28.9%, respectively.

Brilliance China: Special Dividend Amount Disappoints, but More Could Be on the Way

By Victoria Li

HK$0.96 per share special dividend announced last Friday disappointed the market.
The dividend implies only 20% of the cash on the balance sheet paid out in dividends
We think there could be 1-2 more special dividends in 2023E given lack of obvious uses for the cash balance

Keepers: Thoughts on the Move Up, More to Come Easy Double from Here

By Sameer Taneja

The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) recent move of +24% (3 months) was catalyzed by the dividend payout ratio (to 50%) increase and a solid Q4 2022 on the cards.
Post the move, the stock trades at 8.4x/6.6x FY22/23e. The dividend yield for FY23e/FY24e is 6.0%/7.6% ( based on a 50% payout). 8% of the market cap is net cash.
We expect the next catalyst to be when the company reports its earnings ( probably the second week of April 2023).

Calbee’s FY24 OP Is Bound to Exceed ¥30.0bn

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan’s largest snacks maker, Calbee Inc (2229 JP) has raised prices by 10-20% for almost 75% of its product range.
Meanwhile, main inputs such as potatoes and palm oil have seen extensive price drops in the past few months.
With margin pressures alleviating from both angles (revenue & cost), we think Calbee’s FY24 OP is bound to exceed ¥30.0bn.

Seiyu Plans ¥100 Billion Investment

By Michael Causton

Rakuten only has a 15% stake in Seiyu, alongside majority shareholder, KKR, but the pivot by Seiyu post-acquisition shows the potential for Rakuten in this sector.
Building on the 5 year plan that it set out in 2021, Seiyu last month announced a ¥100 billion in investment over the next 5 years.
Funds will be used to increase integration with Rakuten’s online supermarket, with the aim to become the biggest GMS retailer.

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Jan 19

Most Read: LG Energy Solution, Anycolor, Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Metaverse ETF, HDFC Bank, Alibaba (ADR), CP ALL PCL, Hanwha Aerospace, Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!
LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn
Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering – Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name
ETF Arbitrage in Korea: Names Suitable for Pair Trades
HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher
Aequitas HK IPOs Sponsor + GC Performance (2019-2022)
Anycolor Placement – First Placement Since Listing but Should Do Fine
StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO
Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?
Tencent/Netease: January Game Approval Shows Tencent Playing Catching Up

2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!

“VTuber” (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn

LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO, after pricing at the top-end of the IPO price range.
The stock was listed on 27th Jan 22. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note

Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering – Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name

In late December, I wrote 2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!. Shares closed at ¥6,470 that day. Then went to ¥5,500.
They have since rebounded some, and now 3 pre-IPO VC investors have announced an overseas offering. This was NOT unexpected. They need more shares to get their TSE Prime listing.
The Offering is 3.27mm shares which is 5-6 days of volume. This lifts the TSE Prime inclusion amount, eventually, but the story is still about growth and model.

ETF Arbitrage in Korea: Names Suitable for Pair Trades

As for the one using the creation/redemption mechanism, the tracking error (market value – NAV) is still too tight to call this an arbitrage opening.
Then, at this point, we need to pay attention to ETF arbitrage from a pair trade perspective. There are a total of 3 pairs we can consider for this.
The mean reversion cycle is still not short. However, the diversion range is not extensive, so we can aim for a relatively stable setup in a market with increased volatility.

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher

By Brian Freitas

Foreign shareholding in HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped over the December quarter resulting in higher foreign room.
The merger is expected to complete in Q2/Q3 when we expect there will be large buying from MSCI trackers.
The merger (and the timing of implementation) will have implications for changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the forthcoming rebalances.

Aequitas HK IPOs Sponsor + GC Performance (2019-2022)

By Ethan Aw

In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for HK IPOs from 2019-2022.
The following dataset includes all HK IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 173 deals.
The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.

Anycolor Placement – First Placement Since Listing but Should Do Fine

By Ethan Aw

Some shareholders of Anycolor (5032 JP) are looking to raise US$151.5m via an International Only Follow-on offering.
The deal is a relatively small one to digest in terms of ADV, representing only 4 days of three-month ADV. Although, it is still 10% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO

7-11 play CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor versus cash & carry subsidiary Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB).
Preceding my comments on CPALL/MAKRO are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?

Hanwha Aerospace is still narrowly across the borderline. It is especially painful that the share price was corrected by more than 4% today.
But suppose the cutoff MC is set at less than ₩2.7T, and Aerospace succeeds in recovering slightly. In that case, it will likely manage to come within the borderline.
Given that the preemptive flow must not have been significant and the profit forecast has been upwards until recently, a price shooting may appear at the time of the announcement.

Tencent/Netease: January Game Approval Shows Tencent Playing Catching Up

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China just announced game approval for January batch. The number of games approved is slightly higher than the previous three months.
Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game each. Overall Tencent is still behind its peers since the approval resumed.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Australia: Nickel Industries Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Nickel Industries Placement – Deepening Ties, Rising Short Interest Likely to Support Deal Price

Nickel Industries Placement – Deepening Ties, Rising Short Interest Likely to Support Deal Price

By Clarence Chu

Nickel Industries Ltd (NIC AU) is looking to raise US$185m with the majority of proceeds used to acquire 10% interests in nickel producing assets within the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park.
The Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park is part of its ongoing collaboration with Tsinghan Group, a private Chinese nickel and stainless steel producer.
In this note, we will talk about the firm’s track record and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Indonesia: Lippo Karawaci and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Lippo Karawaci – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

Lippo Karawaci – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jan 19

Daily Brief South Korea: LG Energy Solution, Hanwha Aerospace, Jb Financial Group, Naver Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn
Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?
KOSPI 200 Rebalance: JB Financial In & Meritz F&M Insurance Out
NAVER Corp: Back to the Lows

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn

LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO, after pricing at the top-end of the IPO price range.
The stock was listed on 27th Jan 22. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note

Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?

Hanwha Aerospace is still narrowly across the borderline. It is especially painful that the share price was corrected by more than 4% today.
But suppose the cutoff MC is set at less than ₩2.7T, and Aerospace succeeds in recovering slightly. In that case, it will likely manage to come within the borderline.
Given that the preemptive flow must not have been significant and the profit forecast has been upwards until recently, a price shooting may appear at the time of the announcement.

KOSPI 200 Rebalance: JB Financial In & Meritz F&M Insurance Out

On 18 January, the KRX announced rebalance to KOSPI 200 index. The new addition to KOSPI 200 is JB Financial Group and the deletion is Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance.
We expect JB Financial to continue to outperform the market in the first half of this year.
However, we do not expect the sharp appreciation of JB Financial versus the other leading Korean banking stocks post JB Financial’s inclusion in KOSPI 200 on 30 January.

NAVER Corp: Back to the Lows

By Steven Holden

Big declines in NAVER Corp holdings among active Asia Ex-Japan investors in 2022
Allocation drop part of broader rotation out of South Korea, but NAVER Corp the most aggressively sold.
Current exposure close to the lowest on record, but past trends suggests this could represent a turning point.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Thailand: CP ALL PCL and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO

StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO