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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles
  • China Stimulus: Big Loan Growth Numbers, Good for FMG?
  • Yamazaki Baking (2212) | Price Hikes to Test Consumer Appetite
  • HRTech Sector Series: Changing HR Landscape Post-Covid Create Opportunities
  • Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN): Demerger to Create a Differentiated and Niche Pharmaceutical Business
  • WDFC: Spraying on a Sell Rating, Initiating
  • SCGP : Time to Repack for Brighter 2H22 Outlook
  • Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • According to Reuters, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s supermarket chain Freshippo is seeking to raise around $400-500m from a fresh funding round which values the loss making company at $6.0bn.
  • The fact that Alibaba is willing to dilute ownership at a significant discount to its expected valuation is an additional sign that Alibaba could be running into some financial difficulties.
  • Having slashed spending budgets of its smaller investments and more down rounds expected in ventures that are considered too big to fail, we anticipate a challenging time ahead.   

China Stimulus: Big Loan Growth Numbers, Good for FMG?

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) has corrected due to the iron ore price dropping. China’s massive stimulus could provide an impetus to demand in 6-8 months and revive pricing.
  • Substantial correction of steel margins is halted. Iron ore the inventory at the mills and ports has now stabilized. We believe this provides support to pricing at these levels.
  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) yields at the spot have dropped to 12% FCF and 9% dividend yields, but we believe there is an upside to this.

Yamazaki Baking (2212) | Price Hikes to Test Consumer Appetite

By Mark Chadwick

  • Strong Q1 results have pushed up the share price offering a good entry point for Shorts
  • We think that full year guidance remains a risk given input costs and ability to push through higher prices
  • Given the risks, persistently low margins and returns to equity, we remain bearish

HRTech Sector Series: Changing HR Landscape Post-Covid Create Opportunities

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • The global HRTech market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2022-2028E to US$35.68bn driven by increased investment in product and technology development.
  • We have chosen four companies that will have an exciting year ahead (either bullish or bearish) and have discussed their business models, key drivers, fundamentals and their valuation.
  • We have chosen two stocks from the US (Ceridian and Automatic Data Processing) and two from Japan (Recruit and Visional) with a market capitalisation of >$1bn and ADTV>$1m.

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN): Demerger to Create a Differentiated and Niche Pharmaceutical Business

By Tina Banerjee

  • Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) obtained shareholders nod for demerging its pharma business and consolidated under Piramal Pharma Limited (PPL). Later, PPL will be listed on India stock exchange.
  • PPL has a differentiated pharmaceutical business model, with three business verticals. CDMO, the largest revenue contributor, has track record of consistent above-market growth due to its niche and complex capabilities.  
  • Listed as a separate entity, PPL will see multiple expansion and command premium valuation over other Indian generic drug makers, due to its niche and limited competition portfolio.

WDFC: Spraying on a Sell Rating, Initiating

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of WD-40 Company (WDFC) with a Sell Rating and $88 target.
  • We believe WDFC is prone to an earnings decline stemming from higher input costs and the Company’s first in first out accounting practice.
  • People are no longer staying indoors. The squeaking door is not bothering anyone like it used to. WDFC benefited from people staying home during pandemic. Now inventory is rising

SCGP : Time to Repack for Brighter 2H22 Outlook

By Pi Research

  • We retain our BUY rating with a TP of Bt66 derived from 33xPE’22E which is close to its 3-years trailing mean. We recommend investors to increase position in SCGP ahead 
  • Modest recovery in 2Q22, post 1Q22 bottom : We estimate 2Q22 core profit at Bt1.9bn (-8%YoY, +12%QoQ) based on assuming gross margin of 17.4% (-3.1ppts YoY, +0.3ppts QoQ). 
  • Likewise, we forecast the company to register revenue at Bt38.1bn (+28%YoY, +4%QoQ). The YoY rise is attributed to healthier demand volume and M&Ps contribution, upon the resumption of economic activities 

Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
  • Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.
  • Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti .

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room
  • StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor
  • Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades
  • Bridgetown Holdings Considering a Potential Merger with Circles.Life
  • MergerTalk: Healthcare Realty/ HealthCare Trust – Short-Term Risk-Arb Opportunity

HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign selling has continued on HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and foreign room on the proforma merged entity is 17.23%.
  • Higher than 15% foreign room will require passive MSCI trackers to buy 209m shares (US$4.05bn) of HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) at the time of merger implementation.
  • If foreign selling continues and foreign room on the merged entity exceeds 20%, there will be buying from passive FTSE trackers as well.

StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

By David Blennerhassett

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
  • Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
  • Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
  • In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2022.

Bridgetown Holdings Considering a Potential Merger with Circles.Life

By Douglas Kim

  • Bridgetown Holdings, a SPAC backed by Peter Thiel and Richard Li, is considering a potential merger with Singapore’s virtual telco Circles.Life (merger valuation could range US$1.5 billion to US$2.5 billion). 
  • All in all, the valuation range of the proposed M&A merger of Bridgetown Holdings and Circles.Life needs to be reduced substantially, in order to generate more interest in this deal. 
  • Otherwise, there is likely to be weak demand for this merger deal. In addition, the market environment for SPAC related M&A deals have deteriorated significantly in the past 6-12 months.

MergerTalk: Healthcare Realty/ HealthCare Trust – Short-Term Risk-Arb Opportunity

By Robert Sassoon

  • The Healthcare Realty Trust (HR US) / Healthcare Trust Of America (HTA US) transaction is heading towards climax with the critical HR and HTA shareholder votes set for July 15 
  • The odds are that activist investor and HR shareholder will not succeed in derailing the deal which it opposes from closing on July 20 
  • Notwithstanding the significant spread compression seen in recent weeks, there remains an attractive short-term opportunity for the arbs  

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Bear Market Plays – Crypto Exchange Tokens and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bear Market Plays – Crypto Exchange Tokens

Bear Market Plays – Crypto Exchange Tokens

By Rose Choy

  • We use a simple framework to analyse 3 exchange tokens’ value and we find FTT and LEO tokens are decent bear market plays.
  • For crypto exchanges, buying the token is the only way for non-VC investors to gain exposure to the growth. Private valuations could differ greatly from the publicly traded valuations. 
  • While exchange tokens are the easiest to understand and most equity-like in the traditional finance sense, we can also further apply the framework to tokens on other protocols.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Sungeel Hitech, WCP and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Sungeel HiTech IPO – The Highest Ever Bookbuilding Demand Ratio for a Korean IPO
  • WCP IPO – The Negatives – Patent, Going Concern, Customer Concentration

Sungeel HiTech IPO – The Highest Ever Bookbuilding Demand Ratio for a Korean IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Sungeel Hitech announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 50,000 won, higher than the high end of IPO price of 47,500 won.
  • The demand ratio for Sungeel Hitech IPO was 2,269.7 to 1 which broke all time records in terms of highest ever demand ratio for a Korean IPO.
  • Our base case valuation is implied price per won of 70,992 won per share, which represents 42% higher than the IPO price of 50,000 won.

WCP IPO – The Negatives – Patent, Going Concern, Customer Concentration

By Sumeet Singh

  • WCP aims to raise around US$690m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO.
  • WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Jul 15
0

Most Read: Wan Hai Lines, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, United Tractors, HDFC Bank, Solus Advanced Materials, Astra International, Alibaba Group, FTX Token, Sungeel Hitech, Wolters Kluwer Nv and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance Preview: BIG Impact Changes
  • HFCAA, AHFCAA, China ADRs & FTSE Index Treatment: Speeding Up The Process & Implications
  • United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – Sure to Be Impactful
  • HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room
  • WISE Theme Indexes Rebalancing Today: Names in Basket Trade Setup
  • StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor
  • Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles
  • Bear Market Plays – Crypto Exchange Tokens
  • Sungeel HiTech IPO – The Highest Ever Bookbuilding Demand Ratio for a Korean IPO
  • Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance Preview: BIG Impact Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index is a funky one that weights stocks by dividend yield. Given dependency on dividends and stock prices, the potential adds/deletes can change often.
  • We currently see three changes to the index in December, with another stock very close to deletion zone. Given the difference in market cap and dividend yield, impacts are big.
  • There will be large flows on the current index names at the September rebalance due to capping.

HFCAA, AHFCAA, China ADRs & FTSE Index Treatment: Speeding Up The Process & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) could result in China ADRs being delisted in 2024. The Accelerated HFCAA, if passed, will bring that date ahead to 2023.
  • FTSE has announced its implementation plan to migrate the China ADRs in its indices to the local listings using an accelerated schedule.
  • Expect a lot more secondary listings/ dual primary listing in Hong Kong over the next few months. The increase free float market cap could keep a lid on prices.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback – Sure to Be Impactful

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a large share buyback. It’s a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say “up to 20%”). 
  • The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.
  • Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.

HDFC/​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Selling Leads to Higher Foreign Room

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign selling has continued on HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and foreign room on the proforma merged entity is 17.23%.
  • Higher than 15% foreign room will require passive MSCI trackers to buy 209m shares (US$4.05bn) of HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) at the time of merger implementation.
  • If foreign selling continues and foreign room on the merged entity exceeds 20%, there will be buying from passive FTSE trackers as well.

WISE Theme Indexes Rebalancing Today: Names in Basket Trade Setup

By Sanghyun Park

StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

By David Blennerhassett

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
  • Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • According to Reuters, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s supermarket chain Freshippo is seeking to raise around $400-500m from a fresh funding round which values the loss making company at $6.0bn.
  • The fact that Alibaba is willing to dilute ownership at a significant discount to its expected valuation is an additional sign that Alibaba could be running into some financial difficulties.
  • Having slashed spending budgets of its smaller investments and more down rounds expected in ventures that are considered too big to fail, we anticipate a challenging time ahead.   

Bear Market Plays – Crypto Exchange Tokens

By Rose Choy

  • We use a simple framework to analyse 3 exchange tokens’ value and we find FTT and LEO tokens are decent bear market plays.
  • For crypto exchanges, buying the token is the only way for non-VC investors to gain exposure to the growth. Private valuations could differ greatly from the publicly traded valuations. 
  • While exchange tokens are the easiest to understand and most equity-like in the traditional finance sense, we can also further apply the framework to tokens on other protocols.

Sungeel HiTech IPO – The Highest Ever Bookbuilding Demand Ratio for a Korean IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Sungeel Hitech announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 50,000 won, higher than the high end of IPO price of 47,500 won.
  • The demand ratio for Sungeel Hitech IPO was 2,269.7 to 1 which broke all time records in terms of highest ever demand ratio for a Korean IPO.
  • Our base case valuation is implied price per won of 70,992 won per share, which represents 42% higher than the IPO price of 50,000 won.

Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
  • Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
  • In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2022.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Thailand: SCG Packaging Public Company Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SCGP : Time to Repack for Brighter 2H22 Outlook

SCGP : Time to Repack for Brighter 2H22 Outlook

By Pi Research

  • We retain our BUY rating with a TP of Bt66 derived from 33xPE’22E which is close to its 3-years trailing mean. We recommend investors to increase position in SCGP ahead 
  • Modest recovery in 2Q22, post 1Q22 bottom : We estimate 2Q22 core profit at Bt1.9bn (-8%YoY, +12%QoQ) based on assuming gross margin of 17.4% (-3.1ppts YoY, +0.3ppts QoQ). 
  • Likewise, we forecast the company to register revenue at Bt38.1bn (+28%YoY, +4%QoQ). The YoY rise is attributed to healthier demand volume and M&Ps contribution, upon the resumption of economic activities 

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Deewin Tianxia, Vedanta Resources and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles
  • Deewin Tianxia IPO Trading – Weak Subscription Rates, Retail Portion Undersubscribed
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • According to Reuters, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s supermarket chain Freshippo is seeking to raise around $400-500m from a fresh funding round which values the loss making company at $6.0bn.
  • The fact that Alibaba is willing to dilute ownership at a significant discount to its expected valuation is an additional sign that Alibaba could be running into some financial difficulties.
  • Having slashed spending budgets of its smaller investments and more down rounds expected in ventures that are considered too big to fail, we anticipate a challenging time ahead.   

Deewin Tianxia IPO Trading – Weak Subscription Rates, Retail Portion Undersubscribed

By Clarence Chu

  • Deewin Tianxia (2418 HK) raised around US$123m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • DT’s subscription rates had been lackluster with weak coverage on the institutional tranche and the retail portion being undersubscribed.
  • Given its smaller size, in our view, the firm should come in at a discount to its peer average.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Circles.Life and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Bridgetown Holdings Considering a Potential Merger with Circles.Life

Bridgetown Holdings Considering a Potential Merger with Circles.Life

By Douglas Kim

  • Bridgetown Holdings, a SPAC backed by Peter Thiel and Richard Li, is considering a potential merger with Singapore’s virtual telco Circles.Life (merger valuation could range US$1.5 billion to US$2.5 billion). 
  • All in all, the valuation range of the proposed M&A merger of Bridgetown Holdings and Circles.Life needs to be reduced substantially, in order to generate more interest in this deal. 
  • Otherwise, there is likely to be weak demand for this merger deal. In addition, the market environment for SPAC related M&A deals have deteriorated significantly in the past 6-12 months.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Japan: Yamazaki Baking, Recruit Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Yamazaki Baking (2212) | Price Hikes to Test Consumer Appetite
  • HRTech Sector Series: Changing HR Landscape Post-Covid Create Opportunities

Yamazaki Baking (2212) | Price Hikes to Test Consumer Appetite

By Mark Chadwick

  • Strong Q1 results have pushed up the share price offering a good entry point for Shorts
  • We think that full year guidance remains a risk given input costs and ability to push through higher prices
  • Given the risks, persistently low margins and returns to equity, we remain bearish

HRTech Sector Series: Changing HR Landscape Post-Covid Create Opportunities

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • The global HRTech market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2022-2028E to US$35.68bn driven by increased investment in product and technology development.
  • We have chosen four companies that will have an exciting year ahead (either bullish or bearish) and have discussed their business models, key drivers, fundamentals and their valuation.
  • We have chosen two stocks from the US (Ceridian and Automatic Data Processing) and two from Japan (Recruit and Visional) with a market capitalisation of >$1bn and ADTV>$1m.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Astra International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

By David Blennerhassett

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
  • Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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