Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote

By David Blennerhassett

On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently.
The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain.

Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target

By Victor Galliano

Kyoto Financial has equity holdings relative to market cap of 135%, well above its larger cap Japanese peer banks, and amounting to a market value of over JPY1.1trillion
Management has stated that it is targeting JPY100bn+ of disposals in terms of market value by March 2029, but we believe that the market expected more
Sizeable disposals of equity holdings is Kyoto’s primary source of prospective shareholder value creation; aside from this, its fundamental attractions are limited and so we downgrade Kyoto to a neutral

Tata Capital Pre-IPO – The Positives – Will Ride High on the Brand Name

By Sumeet Singh

Tata Capital Limited is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.
Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) or AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to be the third addition, with sector balance acting as the limiting factor.
CRH (CRH US) recently regained eligibility following positive August earnings and could be a surprise addition if the tech sector is excluded.

Klarna Group (KLAR): Commerce Provider Seeks $14b IPO Valuation After Lengthy Delay

Klarna will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and is scheduled to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025 increased by $199 million, or 15% (17% on a like-for-like basis), compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024.
A “buy-now, pay-later” competitor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM US), has been trading extremely well since April.

The Philippines’ BPO-Driven Office Recovery: Resurgence and Resilience. LONG Ayala Land.

By Jacob Cheng

The Philippines is on a strong economic recovery, supported by supportive macroeconomic landscape and expansion of Business Processing Outsourcing (BPO)
The office market is also recovering strongly, supported by BPO demand. We think it is a structural fundamental improvement, not a simple cyclical recovery
We LONG Ayala Land. It is currently at 9.7x PE, versus 10-year average of 20.4x.

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Winklevoss Crypto-Platform Seeking $2.2b IPO Valuation

Gemini will offer 16.67 million shares at $17-$19 and is scheduled to debut on Friday, September 12th.
The underwriters have reserved up to 1,666,667 shares of Class A common stock, or 10% of the shares offered by this prospectus, for sale through a directed share program.
A $400 million growth equity round valued Gemini at $7.1 billion in November 2021. This funding round is significantly below that higher round.

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Sets Terms Seeking $4.1 Billion Valuation

Figure Solutions is offering 26.3 million shares at $18-$20 and will debut on Thursday, September 11th.
Duquesne Family Office LLC has indicated an interest in purchasing up to an aggregate of $50 million of shares as an anchor order.
Figure has grown quickly and profitably, with net income of $29 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, for the six months ended June 30, 2025.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
The US market was closed for Labour Day yesterday.
Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in August declined 18% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m to CNY 207 bn (albeit narrowing from -24% y-o-y in July), according to CRIC.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief ECM: [Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)
Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals
Hesai Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case
Tata Capital Pre-IPO – The Positives – Will Ride High on the Brand Name
Klarna Group (KLAR): Commerce Provider Seeks $14b IPO Valuation After Lengthy Delay
Legence Corp. (LGN): Blackstone Backed Engineering Firm Sets Terms for IPO Seeking $3.0b Valuation
Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) Placement: Innovative Pipeline Enlightens Growth Prospects
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB): Drive-Thru Chain Sets Terms for IPO, Seeking $2.0b Valuation
Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Sets Terms Seeking $4.1 Billion Valuation
Molbio Diagnostics Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)

By Travis Lundy

In December 2021, Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) announced a complex but lower-impact move to increase float share count in order to stay listed on TSE Prime.
Scheme: buyback from two holders plus CB issuance. Unfortunately, shares did not rise enough to convert the CBs so as of March 2025, the tradable share criteria was not met.
So now the two main holders are selling more shares and the company is diluting holders with new issuance to get float/tradable shares up with a US$280mm offering.

Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals

By Nicholas Tan

Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) is looking to raise around US$270m from a primary and secondary placement.
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 37.6 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 6.1% of the shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hesai Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

Hesai Group (HSAI US), a global leader in LiDAR solutions, is seeking to raise US$300 million through an H Share listing.
On 9 February 2023, Hesai listed on the Nasdaq, raising US$190 million at US$19.00 per ADS.
The investment case is based on a solid competitive positioning, high growth, emerging profitability, declining cash burn, and a reasonable valuation.

Tata Capital Pre-IPO – The Positives – Will Ride High on the Brand Name

By Sumeet Singh

Tata Capital Limited is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Klarna Group (KLAR): Commerce Provider Seeks $14b IPO Valuation After Lengthy Delay

Klarna will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and is scheduled to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025 increased by $199 million, or 15% (17% on a like-for-like basis), compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024.
A “buy-now, pay-later” competitor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM US), has been trading extremely well since April.

Legence Corp. (LGN): Blackstone Backed Engineering Firm Sets Terms for IPO Seeking $3.0b Valuation

Legence Corp set terms for its IPO and will offer 26 million shares at $25-$29 and is scheduled to debut on Friday, September 12th.
The company is private-equity backed by BlackStone and PE-backed deals have struggled, broadly speaking, in 2025.
From 2021 to 2024, their revenues grew at a CAGR of approximately 39% and as of June 30, 2025, they had $2.8 billion of backlog and awarded contracts.

Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) Placement: Innovative Pipeline Enlightens Growth Prospects

By Tina Banerjee

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is placing 120M shares at the price of HK$12.95 per share. The placing shares represents ~5% of the current total issued shares of the company.
The company intends to apply 90% of the net proceeds for the R&D-related expenditures. For context, Simcere has over 60 R&D pipelines of innovative drugs.
Considering strong growth prospect of Simcere, reasonable valuation, and upbeat investor sentiment toward Chinese pharmaceutical sector, we are bullish on the placement.

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB): Drive-Thru Chain Sets Terms for IPO, Seeking $2.0b Valuation

Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB US) is set to offer 14.7 million shares at $16-$18 equating to a valuation of up to $861 million at the high-end of the range.
Wellington Management has indicated an interest in purchasing up to $30.0 million in shares of Class A common stock in this offering.
Store revenue has increased by the mid 20% in the 1H 2025 and the expansion plan is aggressive. At first glance, we like the risk-reward of this deal.

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Sets Terms Seeking $4.1 Billion Valuation

Figure Solutions is offering 26.3 million shares at $18-$20 and will debut on Thursday, September 11th.
Duquesne Family Office LLC has indicated an interest in purchasing up to an aggregate of $50 million of shares as an anchor order.
Figure has grown quickly and profitably, with net income of $29 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, for the six months ended June 30, 2025.

Molbio Diagnostics Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

Molbio Diagnostics Limited (1788863D IN) is looking to raise about US$229m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and Motilal.
Molbio specializes in point-of-care molecular diagnostics. The company sells hardware devices such as the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) analyzers and consumable test kits tailored to detect specific diseases.
As of FY25, its revenue base remains primarily domestic, with ~80% of revenue from India and the rest from Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. The company manufactures its products in India.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
The US market was closed for Labour Day yesterday.
Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in August declined 18% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m to CNY 207 bn (albeit narrowing from -24% y-o-y in July), according to CRIC.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Vicom : Well Run Company with High ROE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Vicom : Well Run Company with High ROE
India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood
Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target
Xiaomi (1810 HK): In 2Q25, Not Just Cars, But Fast Home Appliance
Shimano (7309 JP) — Q2 Miss Resets Expectations; China Drag Masks EU Recovery
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Retail Therapy
Weak Steel Margins Undermine Fortescue’s Higher-Grade Iron Ore Push
The Philippines’ BPO-Driven Office Recovery: Resurgence and Resilience. LONG Ayala Land.
ISOTeam Ltd – Short-Term Miss, Long-Term Momentum
James Hardie Industries Plc – Stockland Firing On All Cylinders

Vicom : Well Run Company with High ROE

By Punit Khanna

Number 1 service provider in inspection and technical testing services in Singapore
Very high net profit margin of 20% and 20%+ ROE
Consistently makes free cash flow but earnings growth is limited

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All proceeds from the publication of this report will be donated to support people with disabilities in Singapore. If you find this report valuable, we invite you to support our campaign, “Raising Money for Persons with Disabilities in Singapore.” Every contribution directly benefits the Goh Chok Tong Enable Fund and qualifies for a 250% tax deduction for Singapore tax residents.

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India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood

By Pranav Bhavsar

The past month has witnessed a remarkable shift in India-China relations, with multiple high-profile developments signaling the most significant thaw in bilateral ties since 2020.
Despite the expansion in bilateral commerce, India continues to face a significant trade deficit, especially in pharmaceuticals, where dependence on Chinese imports remains high.
At present, the revived engagement seems to offer greater advantages to Chinese companies than to their Indian counterparts.

Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target

By Victor Galliano

Kyoto Financial has equity holdings relative to market cap of 135%, well above its larger cap Japanese peer banks, and amounting to a market value of over JPY1.1trillion
Management has stated that it is targeting JPY100bn+ of disposals in terms of market value by March 2029, but we believe that the market expected more
Sizeable disposals of equity holdings is Kyoto’s primary source of prospective shareholder value creation; aside from this, its fundamental attractions are limited and so we downgrade Kyoto to a neutral

Xiaomi (1810 HK): In 2Q25, Not Just Cars, But Fast Home Appliance

By Ming Lu

In 2Q25, total revenue grew strongly by 30% YoY and the operating margin continued to improve.
The market focuses on car deliveries, but IoT is the largest contributor to gross profits.
We believe the stock has an upside of 45% for the year end 2026. Buy.

Shimano (7309 JP) — Q2 Miss Resets Expectations; China Drag Masks EU Recovery

By Mark Chadwick

Q2 saw sales growth slow sharply (+8% yoy vs +16% in Q1) with OPM collapsing 600bps qoq; OP cut 34% sequentially.
China sales reset to long-term average, but FY25 outlook slashed to ¥58b (-42% vs prior) with limited disclosure on margin impact.
Stock down 25% post-results; buyback expansion (¥50b cap maintained) and long-only accumulation (First Eagle to 9.4%) provide near-term support.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Retail Therapy

By Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia’s leading retailer, Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), dominates the country’s major malls with 150 brands. It booked a solid 2Q2025 despite the seasonal impact from Lebaran.
The company’s growth was led by active wear and fashion, with luxury brands outperforming in 2Q2025, although the Inditex brands continued to dominate fashion, with digital business also rebounding.
MAPI’s expansion into Southeast Asia has slowed, as it focuses on Indonesia. Valuations attractive, with a forecast recovery in 2H2025, with recent troubles providing a buying opportunity.

Weak Steel Margins Undermine Fortescue’s Higher-Grade Iron Ore Push

By Umang Agrawal

FMG’s FY25 earnings slumped, with net profit hitting a five-year low as weak Chinese demand and global oversupply pressured prices.
Heavy reliance on iron ore and limited diversification keep Fortescue lagging peers Rio Tinto and BHP, amplifying downside risks ahead.
Fragile share price recovery faces technical headwinds, while narrowing steel mill margins undermine near-term prospects for premium ore demand.

The Philippines’ BPO-Driven Office Recovery: Resurgence and Resilience. LONG Ayala Land.

By Jacob Cheng

The Philippines is on a strong economic recovery, supported by supportive macroeconomic landscape and expansion of Business Processing Outsourcing (BPO)
The office market is also recovering strongly, supported by BPO demand. We think it is a structural fundamental improvement, not a simple cyclical recovery
We LONG Ayala Land. It is currently at 9.7x PE, versus 10-year average of 20.4x.

ISOTeam Ltd – Short-Term Miss, Long-Term Momentum

By SAC Capital

ISOTeam’s FY2025 results fell short of our expectations, with revenue declining 8.4% yoy to S$119.2m (11.7% below our forecast) and net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 21.2% yoy to S$5.1m (29.2% below forecast).
The weaker performance was primarily driven by delayed project commencements in Repairs & Redecoration (–42.9% yoy) and Coating & Painting (–14.4%) segments, partially offset by strong growth in Addition & Alteration (25.0% yoy) and Others (10.4% yoy) segments.
Gross margin improved modestly on better project mix and pricing, but earnings was further weighed down by lower other income and a higher effective tax rate.

James Hardie Industries Plc – Stockland Firing On All Cylinders

By FNArena

Stockland posted a strong FY25 result and guidance, highlighting growth potential in residential and commercial property, while addressing funding concerns.
-Stockland posts FY25 and FY26 guidance beats -Master-planned communities growth a highlight in residential -Data centre partnerships to drive commercial -Analysts praise a reduced dividend payout

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Signed, Sealed, Delivered as Yageo Secures FEFTA Approval
Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]
Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?
ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote
Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (July and August 2025)

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers

By Sanghyun Park

Korean equities are stalled; macro catalysts are absent. Street focus shifts from treasury share cancellations to next year’s mandatory tender offers, now seen as the top policy driver.
Pre-MTO trades focus on holding companies with wide NAV discounts or low controlling stakes, front-running policy-driven re-ratings before minority shareholders capture control premiums.
Focus on 32 Korean holding companies >KRW 500B; those with wide NAV discounts and lighter controlling stakes—SK’s holding companies, Samsung C&T, Hanwha, LG, LS—are prime re-rating plays.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Signed, Sealed, Delivered as Yageo Secures FEFTA Approval

By Arun George

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has finally secured FEFTA approval for its JPY7,130 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). The close of the tender offer has been extended to 18 September.
The Board has opposed the Yageo offer due to synergies, dis-synergies and cultural differences. However, on 29 August, the Board’s update suggested a possible pathway to recommend Yageo’s offer.
Despite Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s tendency to go against its declarations and increase its offer on several occasions, this time it is different. Minebea is likely to exit.

Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?

By Devi Subhakesan

The expiry of cornerstone investors’ lock-up today modestly increases Mixue Group (2097 HK)’s free float, which still remains below 10%.
Mixue’s 1H2025 results show limited overseas scale-up, with growth driven entirely by the domestic market, raising concerns over long-term growth prospects from new markets.
At 22x forward earnings, Mixue trades at a premium to HK-listed F&B peers, reflecting market optimism for above-consensus growth.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote

By David Blennerhassett

On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently.
The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (July and August 2025)

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in July and August 2025.
We provide a list of 29 companies in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in July and August 2025.
There were three companies with more than 1 trillion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in the past two months with at least 1% of outstanding shares.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Crypto: InfoFi Overview: Competition for the Best Attention Asset. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

InfoFi Overview: Competition for the Best Attention Asset.

InfoFi Overview: Competition for the Best Attention Asset.

By Animoca Brands Research

InfoFi’s recent success, driven by Kaito and its Yapper leaderboard, has significantly advanced the measurement of attention for crypto projects.
This innovation has created a more effective attention marketplace that connects crypto marketers with social media influencers.
The success of crypto projects depends heavily on their popularity in the capital market, both before token generation and after launch.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Australia: Fortescue Metals, James Hardie Industries Plc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weak Steel Margins Undermine Fortescue’s Higher-Grade Iron Ore Push
James Hardie Industries Plc – Stockland Firing On All Cylinders

Weak Steel Margins Undermine Fortescue’s Higher-Grade Iron Ore Push

By Umang Agrawal

FMG’s FY25 earnings slumped, with net profit hitting a five-year low as weak Chinese demand and global oversupply pressured prices.
Heavy reliance on iron ore and limited diversification keep Fortescue lagging peers Rio Tinto and BHP, amplifying downside risks ahead.
Fragile share price recovery faces technical headwinds, while narrowing steel mill margins undermine near-term prospects for premium ore demand.

James Hardie Industries Plc – Stockland Firing On All Cylinders

By FNArena

Stockland posted a strong FY25 result and guidance, highlighting growth potential in residential and commercial property, while addressing funding concerns.
-Stockland posts FY25 and FY26 guidance beats -Master-planned communities growth a highlight in residential -Data centre partnerships to drive commercial -Analysts praise a reduced dividend payout

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Macro: EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives
CX Daily: China’s Factory Exodus Is Turning Vietnam Into the World’s Assembler
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 September
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 1 September
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 1 September
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 1 September
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 1 September
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 1 September

EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives

By Phil Rush

Dovish hopes for EA disinflation continue to be disappointed by resilient outcomes. The rise to 2.1% in August amid sticky core pressures is opposite to the dovish narrative.
Euro appreciation’s disinflationary shock is being offset by domestic resilience, which was most surprising in Northern Europe. Our errors were relatively small and balanced.
Ongoing upside surprises have defied recent consensus expectations of a drift down to 1.8%. The ECB faces broad upside news that should reassure it against cutting again.

CX Daily: China’s Factory Exodus Is Turning Vietnam Into the World’s Assembler

By Caixin Global

Vietnam /Cover Story: China’s factory exodus is turning Vietnam into the world’s assembler
SCO /: China pledges billions for new bank to expand Eurasian bloc’s clout
Renewables /: Saudi power giant ACWA bets big on China’s renewable energy market

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 September

Global base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
Margins hold firm at time of year when fundamentals are typically weaker.
Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high base oils output.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 1 September

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus Singapore gasoil prices.
Firm base oil margins so far in Q3 2025 point to fundamentals that remain sufficiently balanced and that curb need for lower output levels.
Firm margins coincide with signs of relatively steady base oils output in early-Q3 2025 even after completion of most plant-maintenance work.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 1 September

Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious amid expectations of healthy availability of supply, concern about exposure to lower prices.
Cautious buying would coincide with likely seasonal pick-up in lube consumption in coming weeks.
Dynamic leaves blenders facing challenge of holding sufficient supplies to meet finished lube demand while maximising benefit of any further fall in base oils prices.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 1 September

US base oils prices stay relatively firm and in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices.
Steady base oils price-premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain high output.
Supply could get further boost if Atlantic hurricane season remains quiet, leaving market with untapped buffer stocks.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 1 September

India’s imported Group II heavy-grade base oils cargo price-premium to FOB prices in US and Asia holds firm and in relatively narrow range in recent weeks.
Price-spread stays in narrow range as CFR India cargo price tracks lower FOB Asia/US Gulf coast prices.
CFR India cargo price falls amid pick-up in availability of supplies, boosting buyers’ choice.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 1 September

US base oils demand could stay muted as buyers eye existing stocks to cover requirements.
US base oils/lube consumption fell in month of September from August in three of previous four years, before rising in month of October.
Repeat of that trend this year would leave buyers with shrinking window to work down existing stocks before slowdown in consumption gathers pace during final two months of 2025.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square , Kakaopay , Samsung Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers
Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]
Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (July and August 2025)

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers

By Sanghyun Park

Korean equities are stalled; macro catalysts are absent. Street focus shifts from treasury share cancellations to next year’s mandatory tender offers, now seen as the top policy driver.
Pre-MTO trades focus on holding companies with wide NAV discounts or low controlling stakes, front-running policy-driven re-ratings before minority shareholders capture control premiums.
Focus on 32 Korean holding companies >KRW 500B; those with wide NAV discounts and lighter controlling stakes—SK’s holding companies, Samsung C&T, Hanwha, LG, LS—are prime re-rating plays.

Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (July and August 2025)