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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Douzone Bizon, Taekwang Industrial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: December 2022
  • A Win for Truston Asset Mgmt: Corporate Activism Worked on Taekwang Industrial

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: December 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in the past two months.
  • In addition to these share buybacks, there has also been more recent news flow regarding the share purchases of Samsung Electronics by numerous senior directors.
  • In the past month, some of the larger market cap companies including KT&G, Douzone Bizon, and Hyundai Elevator that have been buying back shares have been outperforming KOSPI. 

A Win for Truston Asset Mgmt: Corporate Activism Worked on Taekwang Industrial

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight provides the details of how a local asset management company called Truston Asset Mgmt has been able to win a corporate activism battle against Taekwang Industrial.
  • Taekwang Industrial has repeatedly been boggled down by numerous corporate governance related issues for more than a couple of decades.
  • The overall result should be a modest positive sentiment on Taekwang Industrial’s shares in the near term which still trades at dirt cheap P/B multiple of 0.2x.

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Daily Brief China: Acotec Scientific Holdings, Yashili International Holdings, China Communications Construction, Meituan, DPC Dash, Weilong Delicious Global, Baidu, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Acotec/Boston Scientific: Even Higher Proration
  • Yashili (1230 HK): Monthly Update Suggests that Pre-Condition Satisfaction in the Final Leg
  • CSI REITs Index: An Investable Benchmark Launches Today
  • Meituan Food Delivery 4Q Updates
  • DPC Dash IPO: Valuation
  • Weilong Delicious IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • Baidu: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position & Key Drivers
  • Alibaba Health Information Technology (241.HK) FY23H1 – Concerns Behind the Performance Turnaround
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

Acotec/Boston Scientific: Even Higher Proration

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 12 December, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) announced a Partial Offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US)
  • The Offer Price of $20/share is for up to 65% of shares out. Irrevocables total up to 60.14% of shares out, sufficient to clear the minimum tendering condition.
  • My initial read was that the proration was simply 65%. That was wrong. It is higher. Plus there are some interesting quirks to avoid breaching the public float post-Offer.

Yashili (1230 HK): Monthly Update Suggests that Pre-Condition Satisfaction in the Final Leg

By Arun George

  • Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)‘s latest monthly update suggests that the remaining pre-condition, the 25% Yashili acquisition, is entering the final stages towards being satisfied. 
  • The wording “in the course of processing the relevant application” suggests that the government authorities will grant the new registration certificate, which should be received shortly.
  • The gross spread is 6.2%. The downside is low as both Danone SA (BN FP) and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) can waive conditions to satisfy the pre-condition.

CSI REITs Index: An Investable Benchmark Launches Today

By Brian Freitas

  • The China Securities Index (CSI) will launch the CSI REITs Index today. The index currently has 14 constituents, and the REITs will be capped at 15% of the index weight.
  • We expect another 6 REITs to be added to the index at the March rebalance. And then at least another 3 more in June.
  • The launch of the index should result in ETFs and other passive investment products being floated which should further enhance market liquidity and bring long-term benefits to the market.

Meituan Food Delivery 4Q Updates

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Meituan food delivery order growth slowed down in Oct and Nov due to covid restrictions.
  • Meituan Instashopping continued to grow fast in terms of its daily orders.
  • TikTok food delivery service so far hasn’t posed big threats to Meituan. 

DPC Dash IPO: Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) is the exclusive master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau with around 546 stores as of 9M2022.
  • With Domino’s trailing Pizza Hut in the Chinese market, we think DPC Dash doesn’t deserve to trade on par with other leading Domino’s Master Franchisees around the world.
  • Therefore, we see an opportunity to make money on the short side, once the IPO is completed.

Weilong Delicious IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Weilong Delicious Global (9985 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$10.56 per share, slightly above the bottom of the IPO price range of HK$10.4-11.4 per share.
  • The company’s HK offering was oversubscribed by 10.53x while the international offering was oversubscribed by 2.6x.
  • Even at the above price, Weilong’s IPO is still at a significant premium to domestic as well as international peers.

Baidu: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Chinese internet behemoth, Baidu.
  • The company’s operating loss and margin year over year and quarter over quarter for AI Cloud improved.
  • Their new AI businesses, like AI Cloud and Intelligent Driving, are in line with China’s national ambitions and digital innovation.

Alibaba Health Information Technology (241.HK) FY23H1 – Concerns Behind the Performance Turnaround

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Alibaba Health turned loss into profit in FY23H1, it was mainly benefited from the obvious effect of expenses control,which isn’t a long-term solution to achieve the goal of profit. 
  • Alibaba Health has a more difficult problem. The logic of relying on multiple entrances to obtain customers to drive online drug sales has failed to bring higher revenue growth.
  • In other to keep sustainable growth, it’s important for Alibaba Health to further improve user conversion rate. It is also urgent to actively expand new business growth points.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Paytm, Adani Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • PayTM (One 97 Communications) Announces a BUYBACK – Overhang Vs Feelings Vs Buyback Vs Index
  • Adani Enterprise US$2.4bn Raising Early Look – Lots to Think About: Controversies, Debt, Grand Plans

PayTM (One 97 Communications) Announces a BUYBACK – Overhang Vs Feelings Vs Buyback Vs Index

By Travis Lundy

  • PayTM, which IPOed 13 months ago at Rs2150/share and now trades 75% lower “intimated” the possibility of a buyback on the 8th, and shares jumped 7.2% on the 9th. 
  • The Board approved the INR 8.5bn buyback at max price INR 810/share late last night. The shares fell slightly today. Now we move to a postal ballot.
  • The buy-back rules crate interesting parameters and these buy-back terms provide interesting opportunities. 

Adani Enterprise US$2.4bn Raising Early Look – Lots to Think About: Controversies, Debt, Grand Plans

By Sumeet Singh

  • Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)  is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is now awaiting shareholder approval.
  • It is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s listed entities’ stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.
  • However, the stock is expensive and has had some issues in the past. In this note, we take an early look at the possible placement and its impact.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Shizuoka Financial Group, Terumo Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Pot Shots and Warning Shots
  • Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why
  • Shizuoka – Indigestion
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): H1FY23 Results Reflect Continued Recovery from the Pandemic

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Pot Shots and Warning Shots

By Arun George

  • YFO’s press release alleges the Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board will not recommend the tender as YFO is not a suitable owner rather than the JPY,1000 price being too low.
  • The Board responded that YFO violated the NDA by disclosing the reasons for the Board’s disapproval. This damages the understanding between the parties, an essential precondition to recommending the offer.
  • The start of the tender has been pushed back to late January 2023. YFO is committed and will not withdraw the offer for any reason that shareholders may consider unreasonable. 

Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies are presumably allocating cash to shareholder returns rather than investing in growth. Lack of investment in growth may lead to slower profit growth, which leads to lower valuations.
  • There is concern that management may be hesitant to take risks. Since no shareholder hates shareholder returns, they may be easily diverted to share repurchases that don’t require risk-taking decision.
  • Although the expected share repurchase will limit the risk of sharp decline in the stock prices, modest growth investments are likely to prevent the expansion of multiples.

Shizuoka – Indigestion

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Credit costs in September quarter are showing steep delta YoY and QoQ
  • Accelerated credit growth in past six months may mean there is more to come
  • Funding cost surge is keeping net interest income growth near zero despite swelling loans

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): H1FY23 Results Reflect Continued Recovery from the Pandemic

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) recorded double-digit revenue growth in H1FY23, with record-high Q2 revenue exceeding ¥200 billion. All three businesses of Terumo reported growth during H1FY23.
  • Cardiac and vascular segment remained the key growth driver and grew 21%, driven by a 24% y/y growth in overseas revenue amid the recovery and growth of medical demand.
  • Inflation and normalization of sales and marketing activities impacted the profitability of the company. To improve profitability Terumo has taken further price increase in second half.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Line Parent’s VC Firm Leads $2.3m Funding for Korean ETF Startup and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Line Parent’s VC Firm Leads $2.3m Funding for Korean ETF Startup

Line Parent’s VC Firm Leads $2.3m Funding for Korean ETF Startup

By Tech in Asia

  • Akros Technologies, a South Korea-based fintech firm, has raised US$2.3 million in a strategic funding round.
  • The fundraise was led by ZVC – the investment arm of Line Corporation parent Z Holdings.
  • Founded last year, Akros Technologies manages its own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) powered by machine learning models. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index?

Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We observed an interesting January effect for HSI in recent years. The Index posted the best monthly return in a year in four out of six Januarys since 2017.
  • At an average return of 3.9%, January is also the second best month for HSI. If not the super-strong Nov in 2022, January will rank as the best.
  • Conducive factors for a good January in 2023 include encouraging message from Central Economic Work Conference, moderation in US rate hike, rebound in Rmb and more relaxations in COVID measures.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Soft(Er) CPI; Fed Pause Sealed; Equities Rip..then the FADE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Soft(Er) CPI; Fed Pause Sealed; Equities Rip..then the FADE
  • China Plans to Broaden Scope of REITs for Bolstering Property Sector

Good Morning Japan | Soft(Er) CPI; Fed Pause Sealed; Equities Rip..then the FADE

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS:  Soft CPI Print – Fed Pause in sight, Equities rip; Swap markets now at 25bp hikes;  Record UAL-Boeing deal for planes;  Co-founder of FTX, SBF arrested (finally)
  • JAPAN:  NKY Futs flat % vs Cash; USDJPY 135 handle; Govt to introduce Carbon Trading;  FOR >AGAINST in latest Nuke Power Poll;  Apple deeply invested in Japan
  • DAILY NUGGET: APPLE and Japan supply chain – an already deep relationship set to expand further.

China Plans to Broaden Scope of REITs for Bolstering Property Sector

By Caixin Global

  • China plans to broaden the scope of real estate investment trusts, which raise funds to invest in property assets
  • The government will consider expanding an REIT pilot program to include market-oriented long-term rental and commercial real estate sectors
  • As of the end of November, 24 infrastructure REITs were approved and 22 sold shares, raising more than 75 billion yuan ($10.8 billion), official data showed.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lumen Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lumen Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

Lumen Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies is a big player in the facilities-based technology and communications domain.
  • The customer experience offered by them continues to improve, driven by the company’s very high NPS as well as customer e-scores for both the upper end of the company’s customer base and Quantum Fiber.
  • Apart from that, Lumen Technologies has been expanding its premier residential as well as Quantum Fiber aggressively in over 30 cities and metro areas.

Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak
  • Sula Vineyards IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • TEMC IPO Preview
  • KFin Technologies Pre-IPO – Large Domestic Player Continues to Get Larger
  • Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

By Sumeet Singh

  • Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
  • Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sula Vineyards IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Sula Vineyards (1332009D IN) has currently come up with its IPO. The ~INR 9.6 bn IPO comprises offer for sale and has a price band of INR 340-357 per share.
  • The company is a market leader with a market share crossing 50% in a relatively nascent INR 13.45 bn domestic 100% grape wine market.
  • Key forensic takeaways that one should consider is high litigation liabilities, emphasis on related party transactions, irrational dividends and absurd trend of line items.

TEMC IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • TEMC is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in January 2023. TEMC is a materials company that produces specialty gases for the semiconductor and display production processes.
  • The IPO price range is from 32,000 won to 38,000 won and the expected market cap is expected to be from 361 billion won to 429 billion won. 
  • The company’s sales increased at a 57.4% CAGR from 2019 to 2021. Its sales exploded higher by 254% YoY to reach 238 billion won in 1Q-3Q 2022.

KFin Technologies Pre-IPO – Large Domestic Player Continues to Get Larger

By Clarence Chu

  • KFin Technologies (1804170D IN) is looking to raise around US$300m in its India IPO.
  • KFin Technology (KFin) is a technology driven financial services platform providing comprehensive services and solutions to the capital markets ecosystem.
  • Under its offering, it primarily serves asset managers and corporate issuers domestically, while providing investor solutions for mutual funds and private retirement schemes in other regions.

Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: 2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • 2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run
  • Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022
  • Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0
  • Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep
  • Gujarat Ambuja Exports
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact
  • Oracle: Key Considerations For Long-Term Investors From Yet Another Strong Quarter
  • Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers
  • Lumen Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion Of Quantum Fiber & Other Drivers
  • GlaxoSmithKline ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • As the year draws to a close, we took time to assess the effectiveness of our high-conviction calls made during the past two years.
  • With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) has more room to run this year.
  • However, it’s probably the right time to take profits from our 2021 high-conviction trade, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) as the US gas-stations profitability maxed-out in the last quarter.

Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review all the 16 Korean pair trade ideas in 2022.
  • A few of the best performing pair trade ideas this year included long LG Chem/short LGES, long Doosan Corp/short Doosan Enerbility, and long KIH/short MFG.
  • Going forward in 2023, as the market continues to show higher volatility, there could be continued strong interest in pair trade ideas in Korea. 

Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0

By Mark Chadwick

  • Omron is a structural growth stock that has fallen by 39% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
  • We believe that Omron is a major beneficiary of continued investment in automation and the shift to Industry 4.0
  • We analyse Omron’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and reinvestment – and see 35% upside

Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • 4Q22 retail sales was negatively affected by the covid restrictions
  • Sales growth is expected to recover in 1Q23 with China’s nationwide loosening policy.
  • Long term growth is intact with continued upgrades of brands, products and channels

Gujarat Ambuja Exports

By Gauri Anand

  • Company holds pole position in corn starch processing in India with ~ 25% market share; but accounts for a significant share of industry’s profit pool. 
  • Further expanded capacity by 40% (1200tpd) just last week and another 25% expansion is planned for Q4FY24E, the 60%+ capacity expansion will drive volume led growth forward.
  • Cost pressures (commodity, energy) to abate in FY24E. Formidable player, capital efficient business, cost leadership, net cash stature, low valuations(<10x PER, <1x EV/Sales), favors investment.

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Boston Scientific angles for majority stake with US$523 million for Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669HK), which is the largest acquisition of a Chinese medical device company by a MNC since 2014.
  • Completion of the Partial Offer would further strengthen Boston Scientific’s presence in China and create the potential for commercialization of Acotec products globally. It’s a win-win deal for both sides.
  • Companies listed in HKEX don’t have to seek valuation within HKEX system. If they can find “new anchor points”, they’ll have higher valuation.Chapter 18A companies’ future stock prices would diverge.

Oracle: Key Considerations For Long-Term Investors From Yet Another Strong Quarter

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Oracle continues to outperform its peers and the broader equity market after reporting yet another strong quarter.
  • The cloud application segment continues to deliver, the infrastructure side of the business deserves more attention, according to analysts and market commentators.
  • The early signs were plain to see a couple of years back, says analyst.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Intuitive Surgical, one of the largest players in robotic surgery offerings across the globe.
  • Korean growth remained steady, while Japanese procedure growth quickened compared to Q2.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Intuitive Surgical with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Lumen Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion Of Quantum Fiber & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Lumen Technologies, one of the major facilities-based technology and communications companies in the world.
  • During the quarter, 31,000 Quantum Fiber customers were added.
  • Apart from that, Lumen Technologies has been expanding its premier residential as well as Quantum Fiber aggressively in over 30 cities and metro areas.

GlaxoSmithKline ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world.
  • The company is making a significant performance in both operating performance and R&D productivity.
  • GSK continued disciplined cost control by prioritizing investments in the growth for supporting launches in Vaccines and Specialty Medicines, namely Shingrix.

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