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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 2nd): Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 2nd): Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile, Longfor, Tencent
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 2nd): China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning
  • Northbound Flows (Dec 2nd): Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Longi Green

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 2nd): Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile, Longfor, Tencent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 2nd.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight inflows into Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile and outflows from Longfor, Tencent.

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 2nd): China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 118.8% as of Dec 2nd.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 0.6ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, real estate, information technology and offset by consumer discretionary, materials.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium, China Minsheng, Guolian Securities, Shanghai Fudan, Red Star Macalline, Joinn Lab, Cosco Shipping Energy, Great Wall Mortor.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 25th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning.

Northbound Flows (Dec 2nd): Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Longi Green

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 2nd.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$3,984.1 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, industrials sectors, and offset by utilities, energy.
  • We highlight flows for Wuliangye, CATL, Shenzhen Mindray, Longi Green.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Tactical Buy Dips and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Tactical Buy Dips

SPX Tactical Buy Dips

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our SPX bull view to 4,100 was satisfied, (Layer out of weaker longs) and now shifting to a more tactical stance of buying the 3,950-support zone to retest 4,100.
  • The current rise shares a number of characteristics with the summer counter trend rally. Weak spots are noted in small caps, NDX and Japan.
  • DXY 103 is our turn zone for a low in yield and SPX peak and topping process in December head of a more bearish Q1

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, China Datang Corp Renewable Power, Shui On Land

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, China Datang Corp Renewable Power, Shui On Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive
  • Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip
  • The Innovation Portfolios – Week 2
  • China to End Zero COVID Policy? – Reexamine the Reopening Timeline and Potential Impact

Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: STRONG Jobs numbers- dent in Fed pivot narrative; BUT Nov Manuf PMI supportive w/Contraction; SPX -0.1%, intraday-Lower left upper right day; Big airplane UAL order for BA.
  • JAPAN: Focus: WCup. JP vs Croatia tonight;  USDJPY 134 handle; Energy security: Govt wants LNG reserves+New plants; Weak Nov retail numbers; Retailer Nojima blazing the trail with +6% wage hike

Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip

By Mark Chadwick

  • After leading the market higher in 2021, growth stocks have significantly underperformed over the past 12 months. 
  • Valuations may not yet have reached rock bottom levels and all these 3 stocks still trade at a premium to our universe of 14x PE
  • These 3 stocks all have strong long-terms structural drivers that make buying on the dip attractive for patient investors

The Innovation Portfolios – Week 2

By Pyari Menon

China to End Zero COVID Policy? – Reexamine the Reopening Timeline and Potential Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The latest press conference has many statements that appeared publicly for the first time or were rarely used before,which reflected the intention to pave the way for the tone change.
  • We don’t expect there would be an official announcement stating clearly “ending the Zero COVID policy”, but policy adjustments would be made accordingly. The reopening timeline could be brought forward.
  • The economic problem is not simply caused by the pandemic, which is just the last straw to topple the dominoes. We analyzed the impact of reopening and investment opportunities. 

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief ECM: NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today – Expect Weakness Then Strength and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today – Expect Weakness Then Strength
  • Recap of Our IPO Research in 2022
  • Daiei Kankyo (9336): TSE Prime IPO and Index Demand

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today – Expect Weakness Then Strength

By Travis Lundy

  • On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
  • The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It’s a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
  • Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.

Recap of Our IPO Research in 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2022, including the performance of our calls.
  • The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this year was 79% (15 calls right, 4 calls wrong), higher than our average accurate rate of 77% from 2017 to 2022.
  • In 2022, the 12 stocks (positive ratings) were up 50.1% on average from their IPO prices. The 7 stocks (negative ratings) were down 11.2% on average from their IPO prices. 

Daiei Kankyo (9336): TSE Prime IPO and Index Demand

By Travis Lundy

  • Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) – designer, builder, operator/maintainer of waste management/recycling, soil purification, waste-to-energy, and similar infrastructure – will IPO on the TSE Prime market on 14 December.  
  • The business is somewhat unexciting, but likely a non-growing, non-shrinking business which could roll up others. 
  • The TSE Prime listing will mean it will have a TOPIX Inclusion at the end of January.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive
  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: Now One Add for Korea
  • Taiwan Div+ Index Dec22 Rebal Trade – +7.1% Now; Amend and HODL
  • Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD – There’s a Trade Here
  • Weekly Deals Digest (04 Dec) – Chip Eng Seng, Bigtincan, Genex, ReadyTech, Warrego, Sunshine,Growatt
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 Dec) – Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Genex, Bigtincan, Pendal, Golden Energy

FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 26 inclusions and 5 deletions for the index resulting in a one-way turnover of 46.3% and a one-way trade of TWD 79.52bn (US$2.6bn). That is HUGE!
  • There at 14 stocks that have over 5 days of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 20 stocks with more that 5 days of ADV to sell.
  • Over the last 2 weeks and 4 weeks, short interest has decreased on most of the adds while increasing on all the deletes and most of the stocks with outflows.

FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: Now One Add for Korea

By Brian Freitas

Taiwan Div+ Index Dec22 Rebal Trade – +7.1% Now; Amend and HODL

By Travis Lundy

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD – There’s a Trade Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
  • This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
  • There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Dec) – Chip Eng Seng, Bigtincan, Genex, ReadyTech, Warrego, Sunshine,Growatt

By Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (05 Dec) – Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Genex, Bigtincan, Pendal, Golden Energy

By Arun George

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Hope Education (1765 HK): Have We Reached the Bottom? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Hope Education (1765 HK): Have We Reached the Bottom?
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 12/5
  • Shakey’s Pizza: Brace For Yourselves For An Epic Q4 2022
  • Kakao Bank – Only Major Internet Bank
  • KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK): 3Q22 Result- Continued Improvement in Operating Parameters
  • Closing Some Idea’s

Hope Education (1765 HK): Have We Reached the Bottom?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite the plunge in share price after FY22 result, we think Hope Education Group Co Ltd (1765 HK) has not yet reached its bottom given the challenging outlook faced.
  • We are concerned about stretched financial position with gearing surged 32.5pp in last year. Heavy capex and need to repay outstanding convertible bonds will strain its cash flow.  
  • Market earnings expectations are still overly optimistic. New schools looks to drag on near-term margins while surge in staffing, primarily teacher, costs is an added pressure.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 12/5

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • As investors we are faced with a deluge of noisy breaking news, business media talking heads, and what has felt like non-stop Fed speakers offering their differing views on the economy and the path of rate hikes going in 2023.
  • This week was no different. Fed Chair Jay Powell was front and center suggesting that interest rate hikes will likely be stepped down to 50bps in the upcoming December Fed meeting in a few weeks.
  • This was already discounted and expected by the market and effectively didn’t offer much of anything Wall St. didn’t already know.

Shakey’s Pizza: Brace For Yourselves For An Epic Q4 2022

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM)  is on the cusp of reporting a stellar Q4 2022. The stock trades at 16.2x FY22e/10.4x FY23e, with massive scope for upgrades from the street.
  • With the addition of brands like Potato Corner, Peri-Peri, and R&B Tea, the company has sustainably solidified its scope for mid-teens CAGR growth from 2023 onwards.
  • The company continues to lower its leverage, and net-debt equity was 0.75x in Q3 2022 as cash generation from its operations solidified the balance sheet. 

Kakao Bank – Only Major Internet Bank

By Daniel Tabbush

  • KKBank is one of the only major internet banks in Asia-Pacific
  • Operating metrics show increasing core income momentum and strong ALM
  • Credit metrics have not yet proven to be a concern, as we near end of rising rates

KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK): 3Q22 Result- Continued Improvement in Operating Parameters

By Tina Banerjee

  • KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK) is seeing a resurgence in elective medical procedures and recovery of the health tourism sector. In Q3, total revenue hit highest level in last two years.
  • Growth was mainly driven by the improving hospital activities evidenced by the increase in patient visits and bed occupancy rate. Bed occupancy has reached pre-pandemic level.  
  • KPJ Healthcare has opened new flagship quaternary level smart hospital, Damansara Specialist Hospital 2 in September. The new hospital will add value and accelerate further growth for the company.

Closing Some Idea’s

By Turtles all the way down

  • In this post I tracked my performance on stock mentioned in my blog, and I would like to officially close some ideas here.
  • I will start doing that from now on. Something I did privately but not on the blog publicly.
  • Either because they have worked out and upside is no more attractive, or because the facts have changed.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Macro: How the World Cup Almost Unraveled China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • How the World Cup Almost Unraveled China
  • “Second Time Lucky”, Or “Fooled Me Twice”?
  • Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns
  • India: Investment-Led Growth Crowded-In as Government’s Fiscal Deficit Is Contained
  • You Think The Labor Market Is Hot? Think Again

How the World Cup Almost Unraveled China

By Cam Hui

  • How should investors think about the current protests in China? 
  • How risk appetite reacts to events such as the unrest in China depends on how they are perceived.
  • We offer three templates to consider: A case of political instability; a case of financial or economic instability; and business as usual.

“Second Time Lucky”, Or “Fooled Me Twice”?

By Cam Hui

  • A previous “can’t miss” breadth thrust indicator of a new bull market just flashed a buy signal. Though the last signal in August failed badly.
  • Is the latest signal is a case of “second time lucky”, or “fooled me twice, shame on me”?
  • We believe that much like the August buy signal, unfavourable top-down macro conditions argue against a sustainable advance in stock prices and the start of a new bull market.

Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

By Said Desaque

  • Rising US inflation since 2021 H2 has not produced the same prolific P/E multiple compression witnessed in the 1970s,  based on the premise that higher inflation will not be protracted.
  • Since the end of the last recession, companies have resorted to price increases to preserve operating margins, thereby generating economy-wide inflation and some downward pressure on P/E multiples.
  • Sticky US inflation raises the spectre of equity returns being earnings-driven, while only those companies enjoying positive real earnings growth will be considered for higher valuations.

India: Investment-Led Growth Crowded-In as Government’s Fiscal Deficit Is Contained

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • After 9.7%YoY growth in 1HFY23, we expect real GDP growth of 7.5% for the full FY23, led by investment spending, which is being crowded-in as the fiscal deficit stays contained. 
  • Nominal GDP grew 16.2%YoY in 2QFY23, bolstering government revenue and corporate earnings. The fiscal deficit in Apr-Oct’22 was 45.6% of the FY23 target, having already exceeded budget targets in Apr-Oct’19&’18.
  • With Brent crude prices falling below US$85/bbl, CPI inflation is likely to be below 6% YoY in Jan-Mar’23. We expect 7.3% real GDP growth in FY24 despite the OECD recession. 

You Think The Labor Market Is Hot? Think Again

By The Macro Compass

  • Especially at turning points, looking beyond the main headlines in macro data can make the difference in understanding where do we really stand in the macro cycle.
  • The last US payroll report was tagged as very strong – but if you look deeper you realize the current state of the US labor market is far from ‘‘hot’’.
  • Job creation is clearly trending down, alternative real-time and forward-looking labor market indicators point to a sharp deterioration ahead and statistical inconsistencies are artificially boosting non-farm payrolls to the point the US government reached out to ask if I could help them look into it.

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Dec 05
0

Most Read: Toshiba Corp, TA Chen Stainless Pipe, Monadelphous, Far Eastern New Century, Nomura Research Institute, SK REITs, King’s Town Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index Rebalance: Far Eastern New Century IN; AUO OUT
  • Toshiba Privatisation In Trouble
  • FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
  • FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Dec 22: Confirmed Index Changes and Revised Capping Flow Expectations
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA
  • NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today – Expect Weakness Then Strength
  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: Now One Add for Korea
  • Taiwan Div+ Index Dec22 Rebal Trade – +7.1% Now; Amend and HODL
  • Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD – There’s a Trade Here

FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index Rebalance: Far Eastern New Century IN; AUO OUT

By Brian Freitas

Toshiba Privatisation In Trouble

By Travis Lundy

  • After a few successive rounds of Management and Board Proposals were shot down, last March Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) embarked on a process to generate a privatisation proposal.
  • The result has ended up with one, maybe two privatisation proposals in the offing. The “leading” candidate’s proposal will not fly as proposed. The other is MIA for the moment.
  • That leaves a complicated situation. Activists+active holders are stuck with Toshiba and vice versa. They want change, and out, and financiers do too. Change happens. The question is how.

FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 26 inclusions and 5 deletions for the index resulting in a one-way turnover of 46.3% and a one-way trade of TWD 79.52bn (US$2.6bn). That is HUGE!
  • There at 14 stocks that have over 5 days of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 20 stocks with more that 5 days of ADV to sell.
  • Over the last 2 weeks and 4 weeks, short interest has decreased on most of the adds while increasing on all the deletes and most of the stocks with outflows.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year

By Brian Freitas

FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Dec 22: Confirmed Index Changes and Revised Capping Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index for the December 2022 index review were confirmed after market close on Friday 2nd December 2022. 
  • There will be 26 ADDs and 5 DELs which are mostly in line with Quiddity’s expectations.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our revised expectations for capping flows taking into account the confirmed index changes for the December 2022 review

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA

By Brian Freitas

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today – Expect Weakness Then Strength

By Travis Lundy

  • On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
  • The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It’s a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
  • Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.

FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: Now One Add for Korea

By Brian Freitas

Taiwan Div+ Index Dec22 Rebal Trade – +7.1% Now; Amend and HODL

By Travis Lundy

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD – There’s a Trade Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
  • This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
  • There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: TA Chen Stainless Pipe, Origin Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 Dec) – Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Genex, Bigtincan, Pendal, Golden Energy

FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebalance: On Expected Lines; But the Flow Is Massive

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 26 inclusions and 5 deletions for the index resulting in a one-way turnover of 46.3% and a one-way trade of TWD 79.52bn (US$2.6bn). That is HUGE!
  • There at 14 stocks that have over 5 days of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 20 stocks with more that 5 days of ADV to sell.
  • Over the last 2 weeks and 4 weeks, short interest has decreased on most of the adds while increasing on all the deletes and most of the stocks with outflows.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 Dec) – Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Genex, Bigtincan, Pendal, Golden Energy

By Arun George

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