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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 02
0

Daily Brief ECM: Skymark IPO – Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Skymark IPO – Valuation
  • Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks
  • Analog Devices Inc: New SPoE PESE & PD Solutions & Other Drivers
  • Gap Inc: Gap Store On Amazon & Other Developments
  • Ross Stores: Store Additions & Other Drivers

Skymark IPO – Valuation

By Mio Kato

  • Skymark is a little difficult to value given wide dispersions in peer multiples and earnings recovery trajectories. 
  • However, on balance we believe the issue looks to be on the cheap side. 
  • In addition, there are several quirks to the balance sheet, not all of which are negative.

Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The large physician network is actually the cornerstone for MedSci Healthcare (MHH HK)’s precision omni-channel marketing solutions and RWS solutions, and also the key to support the overall investment logic.
  • In fierce competition, how to retain physician network for a long time, convert them into business value continuously and achieve the high growth trend expected by the market is challenging.
  • In terms of valuation, MedSci’s valuation could be higher than Medlive due to its stronger physician platform solutions business and medical professional network, but could be lower than HUAYIWANG. 

Analog Devices Inc: New SPoE PESE & PD Solutions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Analog Devices delivered another all-around beat in the recent quarterly result.
  • In Communications, Analog Devices expanded its 5G radio systems leadership with its transceiver portfolio, winning some additional share at key suppliers.
  • We provide the stock of Analog Devices with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Gap Inc: Gap Store On Amazon & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Gap delivered a strong set of results in the quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company has taken steps to maximize profitability and cash flow while rebalancing and lowering inventory to drive short-term and long-term improvements across its entire business.
  • However, the company is proving strength in lifestyle segments, which are growing at an accelerated rate in the current market.

Ross Stores: Store Additions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ross Stores’ results were well above market expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings as it increased storewide values.
  • On the other hand, given their third-quarter sales growth and enhanced holiday assortments, they face their easiest sales and earnings comparisons in the fourth quarter.
  • We maintain our ‘Hold’ rating on Ross Stores with a revised target price.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Medco Energi

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !)
  • Covid Lockdowns Set to Snap China’s Car Sales Winning Streak
  • China’s Property Support Seen as Helping State-Owned, Quality Private Developers

Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !)

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: Stocks consolidated ahead of Jobs; UST yeild down, USD weaker; Fed’s favorite inflation indicator slows; China showing COVID-19 flexibility; TESLA delivers 1st Semi Truck
  • JAPAN: World Cup: Samurai Blues slay another European giant defeating Spain.  This is the news in Japan today; Foreigners are now buyers in Japan; KDDI hooks up with Starlink

Covid Lockdowns Set to Snap China’s Car Sales Winning Streak

By Caixin Global

  • Factory sales to distributors of passenger cars in China, the world’s largest automobile market, are on track to decline in November
  • Retail sales of passenger cars also fell during the first twenty days of November, dropping 4% year-on-year to 859,000 units, according to the association
  • Last month, factory sales of passenger cars rose 11% year-on-year, extending a deceleration from June when growth hit 42.3% due to easing of Covid outbreaks and government tax benefits

China’s Property Support Seen as Helping State-Owned, Quality Private Developers

By Caixin Global

  • China’s latest helping hand to the property market is expected to benefit state-owned and quality private developers.
  • Allowing developers to raise money on the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets could help firms get their hands on fresh cash and acquire assets from their peers that have defaulted
  • The new measures, announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in a Monday Q&A, allow such share sales for purposes including debt repayments and acquisitions

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto.com and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto.com, Independent Reserve in Top 5 for Strong AML; Binance Places 42nd
  • The Long and Short of Aave

Crypto.com, Independent Reserve in Top 5 for Strong AML; Binance Places 42nd

By Tech in Asia

  • Familiar names in Singapore landed in the top five of a list featuring crypto exchanges with strong anti-money laundering (AML) systems.

  • Blockchain.com and Independent Reserve, which are both licensed to operate in Singapore, ranked first and third place respectively. Crypto.com, which has in-principle approval, placed fifth.

  • Binance, the largest crypto exchange in the world, in the 42nd  spot.

The Long and Short of Aave

By Kaiko

  • Lending and borrowing in DeFi follows the same basic principles as it does in traditional finance: I supply some asset as collateral and I am able to borrow a certain amount of some other asset.
  • However, this being DeFi, there are some important differences from TradFi.
  • The most important is that the protocol has no way of knowing how trustworthy I am, and thus will require any loan to be overcollateralized.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Itochu Keeps Buying Fuji Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Itochu Keeps Buying Fuji Oil, Takeover Offer Could Be Possible With Shares Near The Cyclical Bottom
  • Hang Seng Indexes: Rebalances Today; Recent Trading Data
  • Carbon Revolution: SPACed & Smacked
  • Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

Itochu Keeps Buying Fuji Oil, Takeover Offer Could Be Possible With Shares Near The Cyclical Bottom

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has restarted accumulating Fuji Oil Holdings (2607 JP) shares, with an acquisition of 3.5m shares during the last-quarter to take its ownership percentage in Fuji-Oil to 44%.
  • With both earnings and valuations at a cyclical bottom, Itochu could be encouraged to accumulate more Fuji Oil shares in the short term, resulting in Fuji Oil outperforming its peers.
  • We think even a takeover offer could be possible while the share price is hovering near the cyclical bottom.

Hang Seng Indexes: Rebalances Today; Recent Trading Data

By Brian Freitas

  • The December rebalance of the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX and HSTECH INDEX takes place at the close today. One-way flow is estimated at HK$8.4bn.
  • There are 3 adds for the HSI INDEX and 4 adds/ 4 deletes for the HSCEI INDEX. There are float changes for a few stocks as well as capping changes. 
  • There is excess volume on most adds/deletes post announcement and short interest has also picked up significantly.

Carbon Revolution: SPACed & Smacked

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following a one-month suspension, carbon-fibre wheel maker Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU) announced it will merge (and delist from the ASX) with Twin Ridge Capital, a US-listed SPAC.
  • CBR said it also requires upward of A$30mn in bridging finance to fund near-term costs (through to June 2023). The share price promptly tanked 50% upon the resumption of trading. 
  • It’s an intriguing situation with an implied notional share price of A$1.49/share under the merger, versus the current price of A$0.15. So I dig a little deeper.

Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Software provider Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) has announced an indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, from PE outfit SQN Investors at A$0.80/share, a 17.6% premium to last close.
  • Due diligence has not yet been afforded. SQN currently holds a 13.6% stake.
  • BTH also highlighted it has had preliminary discussions with other interested parties. Expect BTH’s board not to engage with SQN at this price. 

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Macro: China Reopening May Cool Global Inflation: Morgan Stanley Report and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Reopening May Cool Global Inflation: Morgan Stanley Report
  • NPS Could Raise Investments in Korean Stocks in December 2022
  • Let’s Not Be Stupid Macro Investors

China Reopening May Cool Global Inflation: Morgan Stanley Report

By Tech in Asia

  • China’s reopening – which could happen as soon as next Spring – is likely to ease global inflation, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

  • With the country removing strict Covid-19 restrictions, Asia is likely to see a rise in economic performance.

  • The continent is projected to see a growth in gross domestic product from 3.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 4.6% in the second half of the year.

NPS Could Raise Investments in Korean Stocks in December 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • At the end of September 2022, Korean stocks accounted for 13.6% of total assets of the NPS whose target for domestic stock exposure is 15.9% by end of this year. 
  • In recent months, NPS has been net increasing purchases of companies including Naver, Celltrion, POSCO Chemical, Samsung Life Insurance, and Krafton. 
  • Although the allowable range for SAA by NPS is ±3%p, there is some leeway for NPS to add to the domestic equities given that they were much lower than target. 

Let’s Not Be Stupid Macro Investors

By The Macro Compass

  • As my mentor always said: Alf, rule #1 as an investor is not to be stupid. And trust me, it’s not an easy rule to respect.
  • As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless: recency bias, being in love with a macro narrative even when invalidated by price action, mis-sizing positions and so on.
  • But over time I learnt the hard way that as a macro investor respecting 3 main principles is in most cases enough to avoid stupid mistakes.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: 3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug
  • Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe
  • Liquidity Risk Short Candidates: Luminar Tech, Asana, Appian, Oak Street Health
  • Snowflake FY3Q23 Earnings: Stabilizing Growth in FY2024
  • Zoom Video Communications: Product Updates & Other Developments
  • Dell Technologies: Major Drivers
  • Foot Locker Inc: Extended Partnership With Puma & Other Drivers
  • Agilent Technologies: Key Drivers
  • Macy’s Inc: Digital Marketplace & Other Drivers
  • Applied Materials: Key Drivers

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mandi, OTC alopecia drug of 3SBio Inc (1530 HK), reported revenue growth of 42% y/y in 1H22 and gained 70bps market share over the last six months.
  • With the resurgence of COVID-19 in China interrupting the regular operations of outpatient services at medical institutions, 3SBio’s performance is expected to be affected in near-term.
  • 3SBio is preparing to launch its new drug nalfuraphine hydrochloride orally disintegrating tablets for liver and kidney disease pruritus in China.

Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe

By Caixin Global

  • The operator of Chinese recruitment app Boss Zhipin reported drops in third-quarter revenue and profit after restarting new user registrations following a nearly one-year suspension as part of a national security probe. 
  • During the three months through September, Nasdaq-listed Kanzhun Ltd.logged a net profit of 211.7 million yuan ($29.8 million), representing a year-on-year drop of 26%
  • The firm generated about 99% of its revenue, or 1.16 billion yuan, from sales of recruitment services to corporate clients — a 2.7% year-on-year decrease.

Liquidity Risk Short Candidates: Luminar Tech, Asana, Appian, Oak Street Health

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • Liquidity shorts can be great short candidates.  The key characteristic is that the company may not be viable, economically, given their cash flows and cash requirements. 
  • Liquidity shorts have built-in catalysts, have moderate to higher betas,  and can have strong down moves if a crisis develops.  They can go bankrupt, pushing the stock price near zero.
  • Today we are flagging Luminar Tech, Asana, Appian, Oak Street Health

Snowflake FY3Q23 Earnings: Stabilizing Growth in FY2024

By Aaron Gabin

  • Snowflake guided below consensus for 4Q2023 revenue growth on a mix of macro conservatism and a quirky point that more vacation travel will reduce the amount of workloads run.
  • Margins continue to beat to the upside and management is guiding FY2024 FCF marginst to 23%, just 2pts below the LT guidance.
  • Very conservative management team also guided for a stabilization in revenue growth for FY2024 at 47%, a bit below consensus, but better than feared given the earnings reports recently.

Zoom Video Communications: Product Updates & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Zoom Video Communications delivered a decent quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • From a product perspective, the company had robust growth in Zoom Phone, along with contributions from Zoom Rooms and other products.
  • Zoom Video Communications has recently announced a wide range of updates in different business units like Zoom IQ for sales, Zoom Events, Zoom Spaces, Zoom Contact Centre, and Zoom One.

Dell Technologies: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • After announcing a weak outlook in the last quarter and causing its stock price to plummet, Dell has shown a decent recovery.
  • Its stock price has continued to recover after the company delivered an all-around beat in a challenging demand environment.
  • Overall, we remain neutral on Dell and give it a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Foot Locker Inc: Extended Partnership With Puma & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Despite operating in a turbulent market, including inflationary pressure on the consumer around the world, Foot Locker generated better-than-expected results and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations on all fronts.
  • Due to strong brand consistency across the board and successful back-to-school marketing initiatives, Kids Foot Locker had mid-single-digit growth.
  • Additionally, Foot Locker extended its partnership with Puma to connect with next-generation consumers through exclusive basketball and other high-end partnerships.

Agilent Technologies: Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Agilent performed well in the fourth quarter and its revenues as well as earnings were vastly exceeding its forecasts as well as market expectations.
  • Revenue for the Agilent CrossLab Group in the fourth quarter was $381 million.
  • With each of their three business areas expanding by double digits for the year, Agilent have shown a broad-based strength.

Macy’s Inc: Digital Marketplace & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Macy’s delivered a strong set of results surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • Besides, they created permanent Toys “R” Us shop-in-shops within every Macy’s site, offering a unique experience not offered nationally anywhere else.
  • Macy’s also has a flexible pricing plan to change discounts and markdowns if demand materializes slowly.

Applied Materials: Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Applied Materials delivered a strong quarterly performance and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • Demand remains very high in cutting-edge foundry/logic, with customers vying for leadership and driving significant technological inflections that decide their respective competitive positions.
  • AMAT should have a strong resilience because of their substantial backlog, expanding service business, and strong customer demand for their leading technologies that support significant technological inflection points.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Skymark Airlines and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Skymark IPO – Valuation

Skymark IPO – Valuation

By Mio Kato

  • Skymark is a little difficult to value given wide dispersions in peer multiples and earnings recovery trajectories. 
  • However, on balance we believe the issue looks to be on the cheap side. 
  • In addition, there are several quirks to the balance sheet, not all of which are negative.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kanzhun, Tencent, Asana, Snowflake Inc, Zoom Video Communications Inc, FrankieOne, Dell Technologies Inc, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd, Applied Materials, Analog Devices and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe
  • Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas
  • Liquidity Risk Short Candidates: Luminar Tech, Asana, Appian, Oak Street Health
  • Snowflake FY3Q23 Earnings: Stabilizing Growth in FY2024
  • Zoom Video Communications: Product Updates & Other Developments
  • HuffPost Investor, Binance Join US$15.5M Series A+ Round of Fraud Detection Startup FrankieOne
  • Dell Technologies: Major Drivers
  • Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal
  • Applied Materials: Key Drivers
  • Analog Devices Inc: New SPoE PESE & PD Solutions & Other Drivers

Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe

By Caixin Global

  • The operator of Chinese recruitment app Boss Zhipin reported drops in third-quarter revenue and profit after restarting new user registrations following a nearly one-year suspension as part of a national security probe. 
  • During the three months through September, Nasdaq-listed Kanzhun Ltd.logged a net profit of 211.7 million yuan ($29.8 million), representing a year-on-year drop of 26%
  • The firm generated about 99% of its revenue, or 1.16 billion yuan, from sales of recruitment services to corporate clients — a 2.7% year-on-year decrease.

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.
  • Wednesday’s Volume fell 10% with new price highs.
  • The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

Liquidity Risk Short Candidates: Luminar Tech, Asana, Appian, Oak Street Health

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • Liquidity shorts can be great short candidates.  The key characteristic is that the company may not be viable, economically, given their cash flows and cash requirements. 
  • Liquidity shorts have built-in catalysts, have moderate to higher betas,  and can have strong down moves if a crisis develops.  They can go bankrupt, pushing the stock price near zero.
  • Today we are flagging Luminar Tech, Asana, Appian, Oak Street Health

Snowflake FY3Q23 Earnings: Stabilizing Growth in FY2024

By Aaron Gabin

  • Snowflake guided below consensus for 4Q2023 revenue growth on a mix of macro conservatism and a quirky point that more vacation travel will reduce the amount of workloads run.
  • Margins continue to beat to the upside and management is guiding FY2024 FCF marginst to 23%, just 2pts below the LT guidance.
  • Very conservative management team also guided for a stabilization in revenue growth for FY2024 at 47%, a bit below consensus, but better than feared given the earnings reports recently.

Zoom Video Communications: Product Updates & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Zoom Video Communications delivered a decent quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • From a product perspective, the company had robust growth in Zoom Phone, along with contributions from Zoom Rooms and other products.
  • Zoom Video Communications has recently announced a wide range of updates in different business units like Zoom IQ for sales, Zoom Events, Zoom Spaces, Zoom Contact Centre, and Zoom One.

HuffPost Investor, Binance Join US$15.5M Series A+ Round of Fraud Detection Startup FrankieOne

By e27

  • FrankieOne, a global platform connecting customers to multiple identity verification and fraud detection vendors via one API, has added US$15.5 million to its Series A+ round.

  • The new tranche will allow FrankieOne to expand its business across Asia Pacific and North America.

  • Founded in 2019 by Simon Costello and Aaron Chipper, FrankieOne is an identity and fraud detection engine helping companies onboard and protect their customers.

Dell Technologies: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • After announcing a weak outlook in the last quarter and causing its stock price to plummet, Dell has shown a decent recovery.
  • Its stock price has continued to recover after the company delivered an all-around beat in a challenging demand environment.
  • Overall, we remain neutral on Dell and give it a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Software provider Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) has announced an indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, from PE outfit SQN Investors at A$0.80/share, a 17.6% premium to last close.
  • Due diligence has not yet been afforded. SQN currently holds a 13.6% stake.
  • BTH also highlighted it has had preliminary discussions with other interested parties. Expect BTH’s board not to engage with SQN at this price. 

Applied Materials: Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Applied Materials delivered a strong quarterly performance and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • Demand remains very high in cutting-edge foundry/logic, with customers vying for leadership and driving significant technological inflections that decide their respective competitive positions.
  • AMAT should have a strong resilience because of their substantial backlog, expanding service business, and strong customer demand for their leading technologies that support significant technological inflection points.

Analog Devices Inc: New SPoE PESE & PD Solutions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Analog Devices delivered another all-around beat in the recent quarterly result.
  • In Communications, Analog Devices expanded its 5G radio systems leadership with its transceiver portfolio, winning some additional share at key suppliers.
  • We provide the stock of Analog Devices with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Medco Energi

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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