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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: Varun Beverages Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI India November SAIR: Potential Changes with Big Flow & Impact
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation on Derivative Linkage & Impact
  • SEBI Indicts, Kotak Mahindra Promotes

MSCI India November SAIR: Potential Changes with Big Flow & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 9 potential adds and 2 potential deletes for the MSCI India Index at the November SAIR. There are a few stocks close to the cutoffs.
  • Inclusion in the index will require passive trackers to buy 7-14 days of ADV on the stocks. That increases to 18-55 days of delivery volume.
  • There appears to be significant pre-positioning on a lot of the potential adds and the shareholding pattern as of end September should provide a better picture.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation on Derivative Linkage & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • AIPL has commenced a market consultation on amending the index universe to only include stocks that are a part of the Futures & Options (F&O) segment of the market.
  • This is likely driven by a bunch of Adani-group companies that are at the cusp of index inclusion and are not a part of the F&O market.
  • Post implementation of the change, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) is a likely inclusion to the index in December, though that depends on Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN) being deleted.

SEBI Indicts, Kotak Mahindra Promotes

By Hemindra Hazari

  • SEBI, capital market regulator penalises senior executives of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company for serious offenses in June 2022
  • The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) stays the penalties but a stay is not an exoneration, final order scheduled on November 10, 2022 
  • Instead of disciplining senior executives, Kotak Mahindra publicly promotes concerned executives demonstrating contempt for the regulator. 

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Most Read: HMM Co., Ltd., Softbank Group, Shinsei Bank, Toyota Motor, Softbank Corp, Varun Beverages Ltd, Link Administration, Tata Motors Ltd, Kakao Pay, Betagro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea
  • TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)
  • TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – BIG Names with BIG Flows
  • TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, FTSE, HSI, TW Div+, China 50, KOSDAQ150, TOPIX FFW, PEXA
  • MSCI India November SAIR: Potential Changes with Big Flow & Impact
  • Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) – Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation on Derivative Linkage & Impact
  • ECM Weekly (9th Oct 2022) – CALB, Socionext, Betagro, Country Style, I-Tail, Lionheart, Kakao Pay
  • Betagro Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Margins Historically Weaker than Peers, but Playing Catch Up

Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Chairman Kim of the FSC mentioned potential rule changes in disclosing the names of short sellers at the state audit last Thursday.
  • The first is to reveal the identity of short sellers who traded through a swap contract with a broker, which is currently exempt from the short-selling disclosure obligation.
  • The second is to disclose the identity of investors caught in illegal short-selling activities, mostly naked short-selling and wall-crossing.

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

By Travis Lundy

  • As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
  • In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
  • Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals – might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – BIG Names with BIG Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The TSE announced its first large FFW rebalance under new rules and Market Segmentation. ~1,000 names see FFW drop 5% or more. 100+ rise 5+%. Reverse funding trades are significant.
  • Top BUY flow: Toyota, Olympus, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokio Marine, JP Holdings with an average of 4.0 days’ ADV to buy. Softbank/9984, MitCorp, Hitachi, Suzuki, Marubeni average 4.8 days to SELL.
  • 493 names start their phased weight reduction out of TOPIX because they do not meet the hurdle for minimum trading value. And… Shinsei is the most impressive SELL name.

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
  • Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, FTSE, HSI, TW Div+, China 50, KOSDAQ150, TOPIX FFW, PEXA

By Brian Freitas

  • We expect a few adds to the HSCI in December followed by a lot more change in March. We could finally reach 80 HSI INDEX constituents in December.
  • There will be a handful of adds to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices in December. But there will be many changes to the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index in December.
  • There were large inflows to the Yuanta/PShares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT), Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)

MSCI India November SAIR: Potential Changes with Big Flow & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 9 potential adds and 2 potential deletes for the MSCI India Index at the November SAIR. There are a few stocks close to the cutoffs.
  • Inclusion in the index will require passive trackers to buy 7-14 days of ADV on the stocks. That increases to 18-55 days of delivery volume.
  • There appears to be significant pre-positioning on a lot of the potential adds and the shareholding pattern as of end September should provide a better picture.

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) – Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG

By Arun George


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation on Derivative Linkage & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • AIPL has commenced a market consultation on amending the index universe to only include stocks that are a part of the Futures & Options (F&O) segment of the market.
  • This is likely driven by a bunch of Adani-group companies that are at the cusp of index inclusion and are not a part of the F&O market.
  • Post implementation of the change, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) is a likely inclusion to the index in December, though that depends on Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRRD IN) being deleted.

ECM Weekly (9th Oct 2022) – CALB, Socionext, Betagro, Country Style, I-Tail, Lionheart, Kakao Pay

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, HK IPOs continued to struggle with CALB (3931 HK) joining Leapmotor (9863 HK) and Onewo (2602 HK) with its tepid performance.
  • Given the mid-week HK holiday and the ongoing golden week, there weren’t any large placements this week.

Betagro Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Margins Historically Weaker than Peers, but Playing Catch Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Betagro (BTG TB) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Thailand IPO.  
  • Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. 
  • Betagro identified three Thailand-listed companies which we included in our peer comparison exercise to determine how it has fared against its direct peers. 

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SKC Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • SKC Co: Announces a Share Buyback of 5% of Outstanding Shares

SKC Co: Announces a Share Buyback of 5% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 October, SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS) announced that it will conduct a share buyback of 1.89 million shares, representing 5% of outstanding shares.
  • We continue to maintain a Negative view of SKC Co.
  • We remain concerned about lack of clear measures to protect existing minority shareholders if its major subsidiaries (such as Nexilis) complete IPOs in the next several years.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kakao Corp, KLA-Tencor Corp, Softbank Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Kakao Cheap or Not? Actions Louder than Words
  • KLA Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, FTSE, HSI, TW Div+, China 50, KOSDAQ150, TOPIX FFW, PEXA

Is Kakao Cheap or Not? Actions Louder than Words

By Ken S. Kim


KLA Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on KLA Corporation, a well-known provider of process control and yield management solutions to the semiconductors industry and other electronics businesses.
  • Strong customer demand across key product categories, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the effects of consumer demand are factors driving this performance.
  • Despite macroeconomic and supply chain headwinds, KLA continues to focus on addressing the most pressing process control concerns.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, FTSE, HSI, TW Div+, China 50, KOSDAQ150, TOPIX FFW, PEXA

By Brian Freitas

  • We expect a few adds to the HSCI in December followed by a lot more change in March. We could finally reach 80 HSI INDEX constituents in December.
  • There will be a handful of adds to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices in December. But there will be many changes to the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index in December.
  • There were large inflows to the Yuanta/PShares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT), Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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Daily Brief Industrials: HMM Co., Ltd., Keppel Corp, Hitachi Transport System and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Eagle Cement,Toa Oil, O2Micro, Hitachi Transport, Shidax

Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Chairman Kim of the FSC mentioned potential rule changes in disclosing the names of short sellers at the state audit last Thursday.
  • The first is to reveal the identity of short sellers who traded through a swap contract with a broker, which is currently exempt from the short-selling disclosure obligation.
  • The second is to disclose the identity of investors caught in illegal short-selling activities, mostly naked short-selling and wall-crossing.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

By David Blennerhassett

  • SBI Holdings (8473 JP)‘s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.
  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is expensive here – relative to historical values –  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.
  • Expect Keppel (KEP SP) to re-rate after the spinoff. The Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. 

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Eagle Cement,Toa Oil, O2Micro, Hitachi Transport, Shidax

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Industrials: HMM Co., Ltd., Keppel Corp, Hitachi Transport System and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Eagle Cement,Toa Oil, O2Micro, Hitachi Transport, Shidax

Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Chairman Kim of the FSC mentioned potential rule changes in disclosing the names of short sellers at the state audit last Thursday.
  • The first is to reveal the identity of short sellers who traded through a swap contract with a broker, which is currently exempt from the short-selling disclosure obligation.
  • The second is to disclose the identity of investors caught in illegal short-selling activities, mostly naked short-selling and wall-crossing.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

By David Blennerhassett

  • SBI Holdings (8473 JP)‘s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.
  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is expensive here – relative to historical values –  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.
  • Expect Keppel (KEP SP) to re-rate after the spinoff. The Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. 

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Eagle Cement,Toa Oil, O2Micro, Hitachi Transport, Shidax

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Financials: Shinsei Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – BIG Names with BIG Flows

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal – BIG Names with BIG Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The TSE announced its first large FFW rebalance under new rules and Market Segmentation. ~1,000 names see FFW drop 5% or more. 100+ rise 5+%. Reverse funding trades are significant.
  • Top BUY flow: Toyota, Olympus, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokio Marine, JP Holdings with an average of 4.0 days’ ADV to buy. Softbank/9984, MitCorp, Hitachi, Suzuki, Marubeni average 4.8 days to SELL.
  • 493 names start their phased weight reduction out of TOPIX because they do not meet the hurdle for minimum trading value. And… Shinsei is the most impressive SELL name.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Antengene and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook

Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model. Antengene (6996 HK) has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, Antengene won’t end up well.
  • Considering the pipeline quality/speed of clinical advancement/high cost of license-in/fierce competition/just APAC rights/limited cash balance, the biggest problem Antengene has to face is how to “survive this winter” .
  • Theoretically, Antengene is undervalued, so if willing to, investors could do short-term trade. However, due to the concerns, we are still bearish on Antengene’s outlook overall. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Motor, PT Metrodata Electronics, Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain, Betagro, Zhongsheng Group, Kakao Pay and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade
  • PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) – Driving Digitalisation in Indonesia
  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Flagship Brand Still Struggling
  • Betagro Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Margins Historically Weaker than Peers, but Playing Catch Up
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 7th Oct – Luk Fook, Zhongsheng Group, Kowloon Development
  • ECM Weekly (9th Oct 2022) – CALB, Socionext, Betagro, Country Style, I-Tail, Lionheart, Kakao Pay

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
  • Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.

PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) – Driving Digitalisation in Indonesia

By Angus Mackintosh

  • PT Metrodata Electronics booked a solid set of 1H2022 given that although revenues decline -11% its net profit grew +11.7% supported by its solutions and consulting business.
  • We expect a 2H2022 recovery given 2Q2022 was impacted by Lebaran and solutions & consulting continues to recover driven by banking, oil & gas, and telecoms sectors. 
  • This remains an interesting and unique play on the increasing digitalisation of the Indonesian corporate ecosystem. Valuations remain attractive on 9.5x FY2023E PER, with 2-year EPS CAGR of +over +25%.

Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Flagship Brand Still Struggling

By Ethan Aw

  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (1985552D HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (CSCRC) is a Chinese quick service restaurant (QSR) chain situated in China. It operates two brands, namely: CSC and Rice Space, which are all self-operated. 
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Betagro Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Margins Historically Weaker than Peers, but Playing Catch Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Betagro (BTG TB) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Thailand IPO.  
  • Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. 
  • Betagro identified three Thailand-listed companies which we included in our peer comparison exercise to determine how it has fared against its direct peers. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 7th Oct – Luk Fook, Zhongsheng Group, Kowloon Development

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and Kowloon Development (34 HK).

ECM Weekly (9th Oct 2022) – CALB, Socionext, Betagro, Country Style, I-Tail, Lionheart, Kakao Pay

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, HK IPOs continued to struggle with CALB (3931 HK) joining Leapmotor (9863 HK) and Onewo (2602 HK) with its tepid performance.
  • Given the mid-week HK holiday and the ongoing golden week, there weren’t any large placements this week.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Mercari and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Mercari, Softbank
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

Japan Weekly | Mercari, Softbank

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei rose 4.5% over the week as the yen weakened slightly to 145 yen versus the dollar
  • The buoyant mood may not last after U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday after a strong jobs report
  • The US commerce department announced restrictions to bar US companies from exporting critical SPE tools to China

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.
  • If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know “when to participate in this story” and “when to exit”.
  • Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.

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