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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 21st): SK Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 21st): SK Hynix, Hd Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hyundai Motor
  • The KOSPI 200’s Rally: Profit Targets, Where to BUY
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Airports of Thailand, Delta Electronics, Bangkok Bank
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 21st): TSMC, Wistron, Ase Industrial, Phoenix Silicon International
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Winbond Electronics, Unimicron Technology, Elite Material


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 21st): SK Hynix, Hd Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hyundai Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Feb 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD508.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD389mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hd Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hyundai Motor.

The KOSPI 200’s Rally: Profit Targets, Where to BUY

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) had been in a downtrend since June 2024 and only recently started to rally again for periods longer than 1 week.
  • We don’t know if the index is back to Bull Market mode, but if it is the rallies will followed by brief pullbacks, and these are opportunities to buy.
  • At the moment the KOSPI 200 is overbought, we are not saying it cannot go a bit higher but the upside should be somehow limited.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Airports of Thailand, Delta Electronics, Bangkok Bank

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Feb 21st.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, Delta Electronics, Bangkok Bank, Thai Union.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 21st): TSMC, Wistron, Ase Industrial, Phoenix Silicon International

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,040.8bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD650mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Wistron, Ase Industrial, Phoenix Silicon International, Quanta Computer, Accton Technology, Alchip Technologies, Delta Electronics, Pharmaessentia.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 21st): Winbond Electronics, Unimicron Technology, Elite Material

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 21st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, Unimicron Technology, Elite Material, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Mediatek.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa
  • [Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 8/52]: Is JD’s Entry to Catering Real or Just Posturing?
  • DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors


Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa

By Mark Chadwick

  • Furukawa’s stock surged after announcing shareholder-friendly measures, including asset sales, a buyback, and a dividend hike; activist City Index takes some profits.
  • The Japanese market faced a volatile week, ultimately closing lower, with the Nikkei declining by 1% – a mix of strong macro data, tariffs, and yen moves
  • Daifuku surged 25% on strong earnings, cost savings, and a robust FY25 order outlook, reinforcing confidence in long-term growth.

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

By Eric Wen

  • A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese link is here. English here by Qwen;
  • XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;
  • CATL’s JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 8/52]: Is JD’s Entry to Catering Real or Just Posturing?

By Ying Pan

  • After JD.com announced it would insure catering riders with social security, Meituan followed suit. Then JD clarified its intension was only to insure a newly established rider force from scratch; 
  • Trump announced American First Investment Policy. Frankly we don’t see anything new. It will affect sentiment, maybe;
  • SASAC calls for SOE’s to adopt AI. This is a real positive to Alibaba.

DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

By David Mudd


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Daily Brief Credit: Moody’s Corporation: The Hidden Power of Credit Ratings That Fuels Its Billion-Dollar Business! and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Moody’s Corporation: The Hidden Power of Credit Ratings That Fuels Its Billion-Dollar Business!
  • Morning Views Asia: Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk, New World Development


Moody’s Corporation: The Hidden Power of Credit Ratings That Fuels Its Billion-Dollar Business!

By Baptista Research

  • Moody’s Corporation reported highly commendable financial results for the fourth quarter and the full-year 2024, highlighting robust revenue growth and profitability across its major business segments.
  • Moody’s achieved total revenue growth of 20% for the year, surpassing $7 billion, significantly driven by the Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) and Moody’s Analytics (MA) divisions.
  • The company managed to expand its adjusted operating margin by over 400 basis points, translating into a 26% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS).

Morning Views Asia: Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk, New World Development

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Weekly Deals Digest (23 Feb) – JXAM and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Feb) – JXAM, Canvest, CNBM, Tam Jai, Proto, Domain, Mayne, SG Fleet
  • MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing
  • Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations
  • MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – The IPO Is Attractively Priced
  • ECM Weekly (24th Feb 2025) – JX Advance, Mixue, Hexaware, Geekplus, Trualt, Goodman, Xtalpi, Hyundai


Weekly Deals Digest (23 Feb) – JXAM, Canvest, CNBM, Tam Jai, Proto, Domain, Mayne, SG Fleet

By Arun George


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK)‘s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. 
  • We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. 
  • MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.

Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK)  is offering 17.1 million shares at a price of HK$202.50 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$3.45 Bn.
  • The company demonstrated stellar growth in store count, revenue, and profits, focusing on the mass-market freshly made beverage segment despite a sector slow down in 2024.
  • Mixue’s pace of store expansion may slow down going forward, however its ultra-low prices (RMB4-10) and scale provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable performance.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
  • In MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – The IPO Is Attractively Priced

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and Baicha Baidao Industrial. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.
  • 2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively. 
  • Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.

ECM Weekly (24th Feb 2025) – JX Advance, Mixue, Hexaware, Geekplus, Trualt, Goodman, Xtalpi, Hyundai

By Sumeet Singh


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Daily Brief Macro: Asian Equities: Asia’s Robust Dividend Yielders and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Equities: Asia’s Robust Dividend Yielders
  • White Smoke From the Market’s Conclave?
  • Could A Cyclical Rebound Give the Bulls A Second Wind?
  • Gold Market Stress Shifts Focus to the Current International Monetary System Structure
  • Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): The Thrill Is Gone, And So Has The Dividend
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Good Set of Results, Capex Acceleration of >50%


Asian Equities: Asia’s Robust Dividend Yielders

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • In today’s uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.
  • In addition to considering today’s dividend yields, we think it’s also imperative to take into account companies’ future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.
  • Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.

White Smoke From the Market’s Conclave?

By Cam Hui

  • A sector rotation analysis reveals a market lacking in leadership, divided between a scenario of a rolling rotation from growth to value or a corrective pullback.
  • The market faces several cross-asset headwinds from weakening liquidity, a threat of a replay of the yen carry trade unwind and renewed threats to growth from a trade war.
  • Our base case scenario calls for a minor correction in the S&P 500.

Could A Cyclical Rebound Give the Bulls A Second Wind?

By Cam Hui

  • The backdrop of synchronized monetary easing by central banks around the world should lead to a global cyclical rebound under normal circumstances.
  • However, market internals in the U.S. and Asia are not supportive of the cyclical rebound scenario.
  • The market isn’t discounting the very real threat of a trade war, which threatens to derail the current cyclical equity bull.

Gold Market Stress Shifts Focus to the Current International Monetary System Structure

By Said Desaque

  • Demand for physical gold in London to be transferred to the US has surged due to fears of tariffs being imposed on gold imports by the Trump administration.
  • Gold prices have been robust over the past year when measured in other major reserve currencies and Special Drawing Rights, thereby raising questions about the tightness of global monetary conditions.
  • Falling US gold reserves will make it more difficult for official institutions to depress prices, thereby raising the influence of other factors in the determination of future price trends.   

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): The Thrill Is Gone, And So Has The Dividend

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) announced disappointing results, with revenues/profits down 16%/53% YoY, disappointing consensus slightly by 4-5%. 
  • Capex accelerated to 3.5-3.8 bn USD annually, vs the initial 3.2-3.5 USD. The company reduced its decarbonization capex to 400-500 mn USD from the initial >700 mn USD. 
  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  dividend payout ratio has reverted to its base level of 65%, yielding a modest 5.3% based on H1FY25’s 50-cent distribution.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Good Set of Results, Capex Acceleration of >50%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  delivered robust 2024 results, showcasing an 11% EBITDA increase to $3.4 billion and significantly expanded margins to 52%, exceeding many industry peers.
  • Antofagasta’s 2025 capital expenditure is projected to increase to $3.9 billion (from $2.4 billion in 2024), supporting production growth to 900,000 tons (vs current 660k tons) by 2029-30. 
  • Antofagasta’s valuation, at 27.2x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, appears elevated. Southern Copper (SCCO US), offering superior return on capital employed (ROCE), presents a more attractive investment profile.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Solidifying Its Appeal
  • Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP): $1 Special Dividend–Xie Xie, Let’s Make It Regular!
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)
  • Airbnb Inc.: A $250 Million Bet To Make It the Amazon of Travel?
  • China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi
  • Applied Materials (AMAT): Is It The Ultimate Winner in Gate-All-Around Transistor Innovations?
  • Hyatt Hotels Corporation: The Luxury Hotel Boom That’s Powering Its Revenue Growth!
  • Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Netease in Feb
  • Japan Hotel REIT: Interest Rate Hike Will Hurt Tourism, with More Hikes to Come.  We Turn Bearish


Warren Buffett and the Japanese Trading Houses I

By Travis Lundy

  • The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Letter for 2024 was released this weekend. Much was made in Japanese twitter-space of the comments he made on the Japanese trading houses. 
  • He said Berkshire Hathaway’s admiration of these companies “has consistently grown” and Berkshire likes their capital deployment, managements, and their attitude in respect to investors. They also pay themselves reasonably.
  • He mentioned Berkshire will increase their stakes somewhat in the trading houses “over time.” That comment deserves some exploration, as does the comment about yen funding.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Solidifying Its Appeal

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) booked a strong finish to the year, beating its upwardly revised guidance, despite some decline in margins due to increased investment, partly due to competitive pressures.
  • The company continues to expand its total addressable market through its Saver initiatives, whilst successfully increasing monetization through its high-value products, and improving retention and engagement through Grab Unlimited.
  • Financial services and advertising are becoming increasingly important drivers for growth and profitability. Expect some seasonal slowdown in 1Q2025 but the outlook remains positive and valuations are attractive. 

Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP): $1 Special Dividend–Xie Xie, Let’s Make It Regular!

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)  announced a special dividend of S$1.00 per share for 2024, alongside its regular S$0.40 dividend.
  • Investors have long pushed for higher payouts and special dividends, given the company’s strong cash reserves and free cash flow.
  • Based on our analysis of its financials, Haw Par could sustainably raise its regular dividend to S$1.00 per share without tapping into reserves.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month’s travel and tourism statistics
  • Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing & margins (eventually)
  • Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted

Airbnb Inc.: A $250 Million Bet To Make It the Amazon of Travel?

By Baptista Research

  • Airbnb’s latest earnings report sent its stock surging 12.6% as investors reacted to stronger-than expected financial performance and ambitious growth plans.
  • Despite missing out on much of the recent travel boom, the company is now positioning itself as the “Amazon of travel” by expanding beyond its traditional short-term rental business.
  • CEO Brian Chesky emphasized this strategic pivot, revealing plans to invest up to $250 million in new businesses set to launch in May.

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
  • SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
  • Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% – 99% in 2024.

Applied Materials (AMAT): Is It The Ultimate Winner in Gate-All-Around Transistor Innovations?

By Baptista Research

  • In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Applied Materials demonstrated strong performance, achieving record revenue levels that surpassed previous highs.
  • The company announced that advanced semiconductors are a significant driver of this growth, supported by trends in technology such as artificial intelligence (AI), which are reshaping the global economy.
  • AI, identified as a major transformative technology, has supported approximately a 20% year-over-year growth in global semiconductor sales in 2024, with projections suggesting this market could exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation: The Luxury Hotel Boom That’s Powering Its Revenue Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Hyatt faced a mixed financial landscape in its recent earnings report, revealing both strategic advancements and some challenges.
  • On the positive side, Hyatt announced a significant acquisition of Playa Hotels & Resorts for approximately $2.6 billion.
  • This move is expected to enhance Hyatt’s position in the luxury all-inclusive sector, particularly in Mexico and the Caribbean, by incorporating Playa’s assets into Hyatt’s distribution channels such as ALG Vacations and Unlimited Vacation Club.

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Netease in Feb

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the February batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Of the companies that we are monitoring, Netease, Zengame got one approval each.

Japan Hotel REIT: Interest Rate Hike Will Hurt Tourism, with More Hikes to Come.  We Turn Bearish

By Jacob Cheng

  • In April 2024, we published a few notes on Japan REITs on the back of interest rate cut cycle and weaker Asian currencies
  • Today, the macro environment has shifted, Japan has started a rate hike cycle. 
  • Japan Hotel REITs will suffer due to negative impact on tourism and higher cap rate assumptions

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: 7&I (3382) – Bain Gets York Holdings with a Surprising Price and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) – Bain Gets York Holdings with a Surprising Price, And We Approach Deal Deadlines
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Feb 2025); Another HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Still Bid
  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Feb) – Seven & I, Proto, Tam Jai, Pentamaster, Vesync, Canvest, Domain
  • Seven & I Restructures but Discontent Rises Among Franchisees and Customers
  • SG Fleet (SGF AU): 8th April Scheme Vote
  • Weekly Update (SNDK, LBTYA, MRP, HHH, GTX)
  • Sandisk Spin-off Overview
  • Strategic Shifts and Financial Updates: CURN, SGRP, SAGE, WOW, and EMBRAC-B:ST Developments


7&I (3382) – Bain Gets York Holdings with a Surprising Price, And We Approach Deal Deadlines

By Travis Lundy

  • Over the weekend, the Nikkei and Jiji reported the 7&i Board met Saturday and decided Bain would have preferred negotiating rights to buy York Holdings. They bid “over ¥700bn.”
  • That’s a trifle lower than the ¥1.2trn Reuters reported (on Christmas Day) Bain bid but details aren’t known. Proper structuring would get the vast majority to 7&i in post-tax cash.
  • For 7&i to decide by the AGM (which could be contentious), they need time to debate. Bids are likely needed in 3wks. In the meantime, “Trump Risk” lurks.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.
  • Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.
  • Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Feb 2025); Another HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Still Bid

By Travis Lundy

  • This past week saw SOUTHBOUND Connect clear HK$800bn of gross value traded, and net value was near recent highs at +HK$51bn. Consumer and finance names continue to be the rage.
  • Notable is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$800bn traded and SOUTHBOUND only bought HK$51bn, HK$375bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.
  • That is twice the “excess” traded seen for the past year. Tencent (700 HK) saw US$14bn traded but net buying was US$121mm. 


Seven & I Restructures but Discontent Rises Among Franchisees and Customers

By Michael Causton

  • York HD is due to take over operation of all group business except Seven Eleven at the end of February and press reports suggest Bain’s bid has been accepted.
  • All of which is fine but this leaves Seven Eleven Japan which is struggling against rivals. Even franchise owners are becoming more critical.
  • A recent survey by Nikkei also suggested that consumers are increasingly favouring Lawson and Familymart and 30% visited Seven Eleven stores less frequently in 2024. This is a big problem.

SG Fleet (SGF AU): 8th April Scheme Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 25 November 2024, SG Fleet (SGF AU) (SGF), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, announced a A$3.50/share non-binding/indicative proposal from Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
  • On the 4th December, both parties entered into a SID on the same terms. SGF’s largest shareholder, Super Group (SUPER SP) (53.58%), was supportive. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th April. Expected implementation on the 30th April. The IE (Grant Thornton) says fair & reasonable.

Weekly Update (SNDK, LBTYA, MRP, HHH, GTX)

By Richard Howe

  • I want to use my introduction to provide some comments on Howard Hughes (HHH).

  • Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management has disclosed a new offer related to Howard Hughes.

  • The proposal is that Pershing Square Capital Management purchases 10 million newly issued shares at $90 each, totaling $900 million, which would increase Pershing Square’s stake from 37.6% to 48%.


Sandisk Spin-off Overview

By Richard Howe

  • On February 24, 2025, Western Digital (WDC) will spin-off 80.1% of its stake in Sandisk (SNDK).
  • Sandisk is trading in the when issued market at $48.26. At that share price, SNDK is trading at an EV/ annualized revenue of 1.0x and a price to annualized earnings of 9.9x.
  • This price looks relatively attractive given Sandisk’s NAND flash memory partner, Xioxia, is trading at 1.3x TTM revenue.

Strategic Shifts and Financial Updates: CURN, SGRP, SAGE, WOW, and EMBRAC-B:ST Developments

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Currency Exchange International (CURN) exits Canadian operations, incurring discontinuation costs, but expects $5-$6m profit tailwind by 2026.
  • SPAR Group (SGRP) faces a third financing delay, suggesting Highwire Capital’s potential funding issues or hesitance.
  • Embracer Group’s (EMBRAC-B:ST) valuation update post-Asmodee spin-off indicates potential 20%-80% upside if market recognizes Asmodee stake.

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Daily Brief Australia: Sg Fleet, Iron Ore, Bell Financial, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SG Fleet (SGF AU): 8th April Scheme Vote
  • Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): The Thrill Is Gone, And So Has The Dividend
  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – Diversification continues to drive growth
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Record Performance in 2024; Robust Forecast for 2025


SG Fleet (SGF AU): 8th April Scheme Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 25 November 2024, SG Fleet (SGF AU) (SGF), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, announced a A$3.50/share non-binding/indicative proposal from Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
  • On the 4th December, both parties entered into a SID on the same terms. SGF’s largest shareholder, Super Group (SUPER SP) (53.58%), was supportive. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th April. Expected implementation on the 30th April. The IE (Grant Thornton) says fair & reasonable.

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): The Thrill Is Gone, And So Has The Dividend

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) announced disappointing results, with revenues/profits down 16%/53% YoY, disappointing consensus slightly by 4-5%. 
  • Capex accelerated to 3.5-3.8 bn USD annually, vs the initial 3.2-3.5 USD. The company reduced its decarbonization capex to 400-500 mn USD from the initial >700 mn USD. 
  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  dividend payout ratio has reverted to its base level of 65%, yielding a modest 5.3% based on H1FY25’s 50-cent distribution.

Bell Financial Group Ltd – Diversification continues to drive growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) following the release of its FY24 audited results which demonstrated H2 CY24 acceleration in NPAT relative to H1 in the key recurring revenue businesses of Technology & Platforms (+18% vs. +2%) and Products & Services (+9% vs. +3%) as scale benefits continue.
  • The Retail & Institutional business benefited from improved ECM activity and equity volumes, with H1 FY24 NPAT growth ~290% and H2 FY24 +6% off a strong base.
  • Products & Services delivered 10% NPAT growth in CY24, with H2 growth accelerating to 16% following 3% growth in H1 as scale benefits kicked in.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Record Performance in 2024; Robust Forecast for 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) reported 2024 revenue of A$783M, up 56% YoY, beating full year revised guidance of A$745–776M, driven by Illuccix. 2024 R&D expenditure was in-line with guidance.
  • Telix provides 2025 revenue guidance of A$1.18–1.23B ($770–800M), up 51–57% YoY. The company expects 2025 R&D expenses to increase 20–25% YoY to A$234–243M.
  • 2025 will be a pivotal year for Telix, with three new products launches planned for this year in the U.S. (Zircaix, Pixclara, and Gozellix) and the European/UK rollout of Illuccix.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Siam Commercial Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) – Creating Wealth Inside and Out


Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) – Creating Wealth Inside and Out

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Siam Commercial Bank stands out from its peers for its focus on its new-generation businesses, which have started to bear fruit, whilst the bank provides a solid base.  
  • The bank’s key focus is improving efficiency and asset quality, with the meaningful deployment of AI across the group, while targeting stable growth in its core banking business.
  • Siam Commercial Bank also expects growing contributions from its 2nd generation businesses including Cardd X and Auto X. Valuations are attractive given the bank’s relatively high ROE and future prospects.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings , Haw Par Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Solidifying Its Appeal
  • Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP): $1 Special Dividend–Xie Xie, Let’s Make It Regular!


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Solidifying Its Appeal

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) booked a strong finish to the year, beating its upwardly revised guidance, despite some decline in margins due to increased investment, partly due to competitive pressures.
  • The company continues to expand its total addressable market through its Saver initiatives, whilst successfully increasing monetization through its high-value products, and improving retention and engagement through Grab Unlimited.
  • Financial services and advertising are becoming increasingly important drivers for growth and profitability. Expect some seasonal slowdown in 1Q2025 but the outlook remains positive and valuations are attractive. 

Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP): $1 Special Dividend–Xie Xie, Let’s Make It Regular!

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)  announced a special dividend of S$1.00 per share for 2024, alongside its regular S$0.40 dividend.
  • Investors have long pushed for higher payouts and special dividends, given the company’s strong cash reserves and free cash flow.
  • Based on our analysis of its financials, Haw Par could sustainably raise its regular dividend to S$1.00 per share without tapping into reserves.

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