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Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, Soundwill Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not taking place the way “the right pattern” would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.
  • Last time was a “second IPO” and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float. 
  • Pricing is Monday. It hasn’t moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

By Arun George

  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
  • While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 7th): Swire Pacific and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 7th): Swire Pacific, Aac Technologies, Swire


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 7th): Swire Pacific, Aac Technologies, Swire

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 7th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Swire Pacific (19 HK), Aac Technologies (2018 HK), Swire Properties (1972 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), HSBC (5 HK), Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric (3898 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Transition to Regional Stock Exchange Means Continued Unhappy History for Shareholders and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Transition to Regional Stock Exchange Means Continued Unhappy History for Shareholders


Transition to Regional Stock Exchange Means Continued Unhappy History for Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies that cannot meet listing criteria have challenges with their tradable stock market capitalization in Prime markets, both in Standard markets, and tradable share ratios in Growth markets.
  • As a result of the market restructuring, the role of regional securities exchanges became a “receptacle” for ensuring trading of shares of companies that cannot meet the TSE listing criteria.
  • For a company that considers the purpose of a stock listing to be to improve the company’s credibility and name recognition, going private or an MBO isn’t on their mind.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

By Joe Jasper

  • We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int’l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
  • We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
  • The S&P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Coforge’s $1.56 Billion Bet: A Game-Changer or a Risky Move? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Coforge’s $1.56 Billion Bet: A Game-Changer or a Risky Move?
  • M&A For Korea Zinc: Seoul Central District Court Makes Important Rulings
  • Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP): IA Partners’ JPY4,065 Tender Offer
  • Acelyrin and Alumis Merger Faces Activist Challenges Amid Tang’s Higher Offer and Market Skepticism


Coforge’s $1.56 Billion Bet: A Game-Changer or a Risky Move?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Coforge (COFORGE IN)‘s $1.56 billion deal with Sabre positions it as a major player in travel technology, but concerns over Sabre’s financial stability create potential risks for long-term execution.
  • Acquisitions of Rythmos and TMLabs align with Coforge’s strategy to enhance cloud, data, and enterprise IT capabilities, strengthening its market position in airline and ServiceNow implementation services.
  • While analysts recognize strong revenue visibility, Sabre’s $5.1 billion debt and negative net worth raise cash flow concerns, leading to a divided outlook on Coforge’s future profitability and risk exposure.

M&A For Korea Zinc: Seoul Central District Court Makes Important Rulings

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 March, the Seoul Central District Court ruled that it is reasonable for Korea Zinc to maintain the concentrated voting system, which should favor Chairman Choi and his allies.
  • On the other hand, the court also ruled that Korea Zinc was wrong to restrict Young Poong’s voting rights which should be favorable to MBK/Young Poong alliance. 
  • The fact that the court has allowed concentrated voting system would mean the M&A of Korea Zinc will continue. 

Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP): IA Partners’ JPY4,065 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) has recommended a tender offer from IA Partners at JPY4,065 per share, a 62.3% premium to the last close.
  • Despite being below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range, the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and represents an all-time high. 
  • Given that the offer is reasonable, the required minority acceptance rate is attainable. The offer is from 10 March to 21 April, with payment on 28 April. 

Acelyrin and Alumis Merger Faces Activist Challenges Amid Tang’s Higher Offer and Market Skepticism

By Special Situation Investments

  • Acelyrin agreed to an all-stock merger with Alumis, valued at $2.2/share, requiring shareholder approval with 24% support.
  • Tang’s $3/share cash offer was rejected; activists hold 11% stake, acquired near $2/share, with unclear agendas.
  • ALMS merger has 62% support; Ayurmaya Capital holds 22% of ALMS, 9% of SLRN, and supports the merger.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): #115 India Insight: HPCL-Tata Launch ‘Genuine DEF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • #115 India Insight: HPCL-Tata Launch ‘Genuine DEF, India’s Exports Rise, Oyo Rushes IPO Amid Debt
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 07/03/2025


#115 India Insight: HPCL-Tata Launch ‘Genuine DEF, India’s Exports Rise, Oyo Rushes IPO Amid Debt

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN) and Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) launch ‘Genuine DEF’ to reduce emissions, improve vehicle performance, and ensure compliance with environmental norms nationwide.
  • India’s engineering goods exports to the US grow steadily, driven by strong demand for machinery, auto components, and industrial equipment.
  • Oyo accelerates IPO plans as founder Ritesh Agarwal faces a looming debt repayment deadline, pushing for a much-needed stock market debut.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 07/03/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously.
  • Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025.
  • The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province.

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Daily Brief ECM: Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook
  • TXR Robotics: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure
  • Chery Auto Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
  • To understand JPB’s trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
  • JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.

TXR Robotics: IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • The IPO price of TXR Robotics has been finalized at 13,500 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • The demand ratio among institutional investors was 862.6 to 1. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests an implied price of 19,673 won per share, which is 46% higher than the IPO price (13,500 won).

CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure

By IPO Boutique

  • One of the most anticipated IPOs of 2025 has officially filed its S-1 — CoreWeave (CRWV US) . 
  • Their revenue was $16 million, $229 million, and $1.9 billion for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 1,346% and 737%, respectively.
  • According to sources, the debut on CoreWeave Inc. is tentatively scheduled for the last week of March.

Chery Auto Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (CACTZ CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Huatai and GF Securities.
  • Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
  • According to F&S, it was the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, and the 11th largest globally, in terms of global sales volume of passenger vehicles in 9M24.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Health and Happiness (H&H), Geely Automobile
  • In the US, the January trade deficit surged to a record high of USD 131.4 bn (USD 128.8 bn e / USD 98.1 bn p).
  • Imports soared 10% to a record USD 401.2 bn (amid front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs), while exports rose 1.2% to USD 269.8 bn. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Technically Speaking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (March 6)
  • The Quickest Way to Lose a Few Million Dollars
  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Negative Reaction Is Overdone; Performance Reversal Is Imminent
  • It’s M&M Vs. The Rest – Passenger Car Market Update
  • Central Pattana: Thailand’s Largest Retail Property Developer to Ride on Domestic & Tourist Recovery
  • Texas Roadhouse: Operational Enhancements, Off-Premise Growth & Other Major Drivers
  • Insulet Corporation: Leveraging Direct-to-Consumer Channels To Boost Product Awareness & Usage!
  • Floor & Decor Holdings: Will Its Diverse Product Availability & Pricing Strategies Amplify Growth?
  • Pharmarise HDS (2796 JP) – Navigating Industry Restructuring…
  • Copart Inc.: Geographic & Market Expansion of Purple Wave Boost Its Competitive Position!


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (March 6)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong continues its secular bull market and has now reached its first significant resistance in the 24k to 25k.  Growth factor investing is leading in long-only investing.
  • Mainland buyers continue buying Hong Kong stocks at a historic rate with buying focused in the tech sector and specifically in AI-related companies.
  • Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) has broken its double-top formation and is at a new high.  Vtech Holdings (303 HK) broke out to a new high with improving momentum.

The Quickest Way to Lose a Few Million Dollars

By Money of Mine

  • BHP stock affected by fat finger incident causing rapid drop in share price
  • Ex dividend date for BHP, investors may miss out on dividend payment if purchased on or after ex dividend date
  • Order for 750,000 BHP shares at higher price causes market disruption, shows impact of large trades on stock price fluctuations.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Negative Reaction Is Overdone; Performance Reversal Is Imminent

By Tina Banerjee

  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) now expects FY25 underlying net profit to be at the lower end of A$410–430M guidance range due to lower services revenue and higher cloud-related investment.
  • Despite 5% growth in H1FY25, Cochlear reiterated that “solid market growth rates to drive cochlear implant unit growth of around 10% in FY25.”
  • Cochlear is expected to release next-generation cochlear implant in mid-2025. The introduction of the new off-the-ear Nucleus Kanso 3 sound processor is expected to contribute to services revenue from FY26.

It’s M&M Vs. The Rest – Passenger Car Market Update

By Sreemant Dudhoria


Central Pattana: Thailand’s Largest Retail Property Developer to Ride on Domestic & Tourist Recovery

By Jacob Cheng

  • Central Pattana is Thailand’s largest retail property developer that operates its own ecosystem across retail, office, residential and hotel
  • We think Central Pattana has maintained sound and solid capital management strategies to drive shareholders returns, including increasing dividend payout, de-leveraging as well as M&As
  • The macro outlook for Thailand is mixed, but we think post-covid tourism is undergoing recovery and this will support CPN’s key operating businesses

Texas Roadhouse: Operational Enhancements, Off-Premise Growth & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Roadhouse, Inc. reported robust financial and operational metrics for the fiscal year 2024, marking it as another successful year for the company.
  • The restaurant chain achieved a revenue milestone, nearing $5.4 billion, driven by positive traffic growth across its brands.
  • The average unit volume exceeded $8 million for the first time in the company’s history, thanks to double-digit growth in restaurant margin dollars, income from operations, and earnings per share for a consecutive year.

Insulet Corporation: Leveraging Direct-to-Consumer Channels To Boost Product Awareness & Usage!

By Baptista Research

  • Insulet Corporation concluded a robust fiscal year 2024 with notable achievements in both the fourth quarter and the full year.
  • The company achieved a milestone by surpassing $2 billion in revenue, marking its ninth consecutive year with at least 20% constant currency revenue growth.
  • Key drivers of this growth include the strong performance and adoption of the Omnipod 5 insulin delivery system, both in the U.S. and expanding international markets.

Floor & Decor Holdings: Will Its Diverse Product Availability & Pricing Strategies Amplify Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Floor & Decor Holdings has presented its fourth quarter and full-year results for fiscal 2024.
  • The results include positive developments as well as several challenges facing the company.
  • Key highlights of the performance include solid sales growth, market share expansion, and effective cost management strategies amid a contracting flooring industry.

Pharmarise HDS (2796 JP) – Navigating Industry Restructuring…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Japan’s elderly population is projected to continue to grow through 2040, and Pharmarise HDS will benefit from the corresponding increase in the number of prescriptions.
  • However, there are expected to be revisions to national health insurance (NHI) drug prices , one measure to restrain medical spending, and revisions to dispensing fees, which are made once every two years.
  • Among the industry, the company is keen on preparing to counter downward pressure on prices by focusing on capturing technical fees, including community support system premiums and family pharmacist guidance fees. 

Copart Inc.: Geographic & Market Expansion of Purple Wave Boost Its Competitive Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Copart, Inc. reported its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, demonstrating strong operational and financial performance.
  • The company showed robust growth in both its domestic and international segments, driven by strategic initiatives and the expansion of its service offerings.
  • Copart’s extensive network allows it to effectively manage and capitalize on fluctuations in total loss frequency, a measure that hit an all-time high in the U.S. during the fourth quarter.

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Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Political Blunderbuss and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HEW: Political Blunderbuss
  • CX Daily: How BYD Lowered the Bar for Buying a Smart Car in China
  • [ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook
  • Record Revenue For Vietnam From Rubber Exports In 2024


HEW: Political Blunderbuss

By Phil Rush

  • Shot from Trump’s blunderbuss is hitting sentiment and risk appetite yet the hard data remain resilient. Europe waking up on defence punched markets more in hope than reality, but hawkish inflation and ECB news helped create room to close our bullish call.
  • Next week’s US inflation data are the scheduled global highlight, along with the Bank of Canada likely pausing its cutting cycle. We also await UK GDP data confirming resilience inconsistent with the dovish panic at February’s BoE meeting.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

CX Daily: How BYD Lowered the Bar for Buying a Smart Car in China

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: How BYD lowered the bar for buying a smart car in China
  • Two Sessions /Two Sessions: Beijing to curb private company shakedowns
  • AICs /China expands AIC equity investment pilot, letting more banks and insurers join

[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Aramco’s 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.

Record Revenue For Vietnam From Rubber Exports In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Vietnam rakes in US$3.4 billion from rubber exports in 2024  
  • Impressive surge in exports to Malaysia and Europe  
  • Chinese tire firm undertakes third phase of expansion in Vietnam

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