Smartkarma Daily Briefs

SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) Index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We expect four changes for the HSIII index in March 2025.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side; Strong Outperformance

Just over halfway through the review period for the June rebalance of the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX), there could be 10 constituent changes.
The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.03-3.6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.8-4.3 days of ADV.
The list of forecast adds and deletes has been fairly stable over the last month. The forecast adds have run up at a blistering pace and outperformed the forecast deletes.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

Cirrus Logic recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
The company announced revenues of $555.7 million, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range due to stronger-than-anticipated demand in the smartphone sector.
However, this quarter represented a 10% decline in sales year-over-year, attributed largely to a decrease in smartphone volumes and adjustments in the fiscal calendar.

Samsung Electronics – Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

By Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)’s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.
Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Feb-2025): Can Trump’s tariffs benefit India’s tech?

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASML CEO suggests Trump’s tariffs could give US tech industry an advantage, potentially benefiting India’s tech sector as well.
Tongfu begins trial assembly of HBM2, signaling potential growth in India’s tech industry in response to changing tariff policies.
India lowers tariffs in response to Trump’s tariff policy, indicating a willingness to adapt and potentially increase trade opportunities.

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Feb 11

Daily Brief Industrials: T’Way Air, Hanwha Aerospace, Ajax Engineering Limited, Kelly Partners Group Holdings, Azek, Blue Bird Corp, Nichiban Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air
Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won
Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network
Boldstart Ventures’ Shomik Ghosh on Kelly Partners’ $KPG.AX unique accounting firm roll-up strategy
AZEK’s Railing Revolution: How It’s Trying To Take Over The Billion-Dollar Wood Market!
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024
Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

ACT’s team for T’way Air’s small shareholders plans to push for a public tender offer once they reach the 3% stake threshold.
Sono may shift its stance on a public tender offer. With a 3% stake gap, Sono must appease retail shareholders before the AGM, especially after the rights offering backlash.
FSC probe shows info leaks from brokers and law firms still trigger volume volatility before tender offers. Monitor T’way Air’s trading volume closely until February’s end.

Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace announced that it plans to purchase a 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean.
This 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean is currently worth about 1.3 trillion won (US$0.9 billion). After this purchase, Hanwha Aerospace’s stake in Hanwha Ocean will increase from 23.14% to 30.44%.
There could be a further positive momentum on Hanwha Aerospace in the near-term due to its positive earnings report in 4Q24 combined with acquisition of additional stake in Hanwha Ocean.

Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network

By Akshat Shah

Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) is looking to raise about US$145m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance and the IPO valuations.

Boldstart Ventures’ Shomik Ghosh on Kelly Partners’ $KPG.AX unique accounting firm roll-up strategy

By Yet Another Value Podcast

Discussion about historical stocks, including Shopify, and the importance of thorough due diligence
Introduction to Kelly Partners Group, an Australian accounting rollup founded by Brett Kelly
Analysis of the market opportunity and potential alpha in investing in Kelly Partners Group

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AZEK’s Railing Revolution: How It’s Trying To Take Over The Billion-Dollar Wood Market!

By Baptista Research

The AZEK Company reported solid financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with notable achievements in their Residential segment.
The company’s net sales increased by 22% year-over-year to $272 million, driven significantly by growth in the Deck, Rail & Accessories and Exteriors product categories.
The Residential segment also saw a 24% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 23.7%.

Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Blue Bird is a leading school bus manufacturer in North America, with all buses produced at its headquarters in Fort Valley, Georgia
The company went through bankruptcy in 2006 and was acquired by Cerberus, before going public in 2015
Blue Bird sources engines from Cummins, Ford, and ROUSH CleanTech, and has a strategic partnership with Cummins for developing electric school buses

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue increased 5.3% YoY to JPY37.4bn, driven by healthcare growth and price revisions in the Tape business.
Operating profit rose 37.4% YoY to JPY2.4bn, with improved profitability from high-margin products and price adjustments.
Overseas revenue grew 43.5% YoY to JPY1.7bn, aided by strong sales in Asia and Europe and a weaker yen.

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Feb 11

Daily Brief Health Care: Hanx Biopharmaceuticals, Paragon 28 Inc, M3 Inc, CEL-SCI , Cybin and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High
SSI Weekly Newsletter: Mergers, Strategic Reviews, Liquidations, and Investment Updates
M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak
CVM: Fiscal Year 2024 Results
Cybin, Inc. – Why CYB003 Deserves More Attention

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb.
There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There’re concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&D failure risks.
After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Mergers, Strategic Reviews, Liquidations, and Investment Updates

By Dalius Tauraitis

Paragon 28 is being acquired by Zimmer Biomet for $13/share plus a non-transferable CVR, with potential payout.
Allakos is undergoing a strategic review, trading at net cash, with potential value in NOLs and reverse merger.
Copper Property CTL Trust is liquidating, marketing 121 retail properties leased to JC Penney, with 30%+ NAV upside.

M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak

M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 earnings today. Both revenue and OP grew YoY as well as beat consensus estimates. Most of revenue growth came from the ELAN acquisition.
Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while there has been a slight improvement in Overseas earnings during the quarter.
Though the overall declining trend in m3’s earnings has eased, we expect the earnings growth to remain weak. ELAN’s margins have continued to deteriorate.

CVM: Fiscal Year 2024 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

CEL-SCI is developing two platforms: Multikine and LEAPS.
Multikine has completed a Phase 3 trial for head and neck cancer while LEAPS is conducting preclinical studies for RA, Pandemic Flu and breast cancer.
In June 2021, CEL-SCI reported selected data from its IT-MATTERS trial demonstrating a benefit in the low PD-L1, non-chemotherapy population.

Cybin, Inc. – Why CYB003 Deserves More Attention

By Water Tower Research

GH Research’s (NASDAQ: GHRS) release earlier this week of the top-line read of the Phase 2b trial of its lead fast onset and short-acting 5-MeO-DMT monotherapy candidate GH-001 in treating treatment-resistant depression (TRD) elicited an unequivocally positive reaction from investors.
GHRS’ share price surged 70% on the day of the release and opportunistically opened up a pathway to the commencement of a public offering at $15/share (41.5% above the GHRS level immediately prior to the GH-001 Phase 2b results release).
GH-001 met its end points in its short eight-day double-blind placebo-controlled study with an eight-day 15.2 placebo-adjusted reduction in MADRS from the baseline and a remission rate of 57.5%.

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Feb 11

Daily Brief Financials: Get Nice Financial Group Ltd, China Life Insurance Company, Paragon REIT, Gold, Ethereum, Globe Life , Urbanet Corp, Clip Money and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March
A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025): AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Done Deal with Vote on 7 March
Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer
[Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining
Ethereum Deep Dive: L2 Scaling, Competition, and TradFi Integration
Globe Life Inc (GL) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024
Urbanet Corp (3242 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
Clip Money, Inc – Raising Estimates Due to Faster Growth and the New Green Dot Partnership

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
The (then) HK$1.116/share implied scrip price & divvy compared to a book value of HK1.736/share. and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share. At the 22nd January EGM, GNH shareholders backed the Offer.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 7th March, with new GNH shares trading on the 7th April. The IFA (Veda Capital) botched its peer analysis.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025): AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK

AH Premia are lower over the last two weeks spanning the CNY holiday. HK stocks up. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average.
The past two weeks saw Consumer and Financial AH premia drop. Utilities, energy, and Industrials widened slightly on average. Narrow premia AH dropped more than wide premia.
AH Premia on average at a new five year low. Some may be foreigners returning to HK. Some may be just drift. Many wide spreads still exist.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Done Deal with Vote on 7 March

Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)’s IFA opines that Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH)’s offer (4 GNH shares per GNF share + HK$0.50 dividend) is fair and reasonable.
The GNF vote required approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote is low risk.
The spread remains high as GNH is not shortable. At the last close, for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 10.2%/89.3%.

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer

By David Blennerhassett

Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24’s S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.

[Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Long gold has been a winning strategy over the last two calendar years. Gold futures has clocked a 125% increase since start of 2019 until now.
Gold has seen its strongest rally yet over the last two years, breaking through previous all-time highs with minimal retracement.
GLD ETF has delivered a 7.4% price returns over the last month and an 8% upside YTD in 2025 so far.

Ethereum Deep Dive: L2 Scaling, Competition, and TradFi Integration

By Christopher Rosa

Ethereum leads in tokenization, but Solana and Sui are gaining traction with high-speed trading and alternative L1 adoption. Institutional multi-chain strategies may drive further competition.
Ethereum’s L2s enhance scalability, but fee revenue is diversifying as Alt-L1s grow. Base shows how L2s can leverage Ethereum’s security while competing ecosystems challenge its dominance.
TradFi is embracing blockchain, with stablecoins and tokenization set to expand. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund on Ethereum highlights its role as the preferred settlement layer for institutional finance.

Globe Life Inc (GL) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Globe Life Inc. faced a share price decline and negative report from Fuzzy Panda in April 2024 due to concerns about bad agents and a kickback scheme
Despite SEC inquiry and potential cyber-attack, Globe Life showed strong performance in third quarter
Company facing challenges such as whistleblower lawsuit dismissal and extortion by hackers, but outlook remains positive with stock trading at a discount to long-term levels

Urbanet Corp (3242 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update

By Shared Research

In 1H FY06/25, sales were JPY8.0bn (-30.3% YoY) and operating profit was JPY101mn (-87.9% YoY), with a recurring loss of JPY232mn.
Real Estate business sales were JPY7.8bn (-30.7% YoY) and segment profit was JPY865mn (-37.6% YoY) in 1H FY06/25.
Total assets at end-Q2 FY06/25 were JPY57.2bn, liabilities increased to JPY42.4bn, and net assets were JPY14.8bn.

Clip Money, Inc – Raising Estimates Due to Faster Growth and the New Green Dot Partnership

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes, NCR ATMs located in retail outlets and a second half roll out at Green Dot locations.

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Feb 11

Daily Brief Consumer: A2 Milk Co Ltd, Hyundai Motor India , Li Ning, Guming Holdings, Mixue Group, Fosun Tourism, Borosil Renewables, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Columbia Sportswear Co, Taste Gourmet and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea
Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March
The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion
The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred
Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!
Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): FY25 Earnings Preview, 5.5x PE, 2x EV-EBITDA and 10% Dividend Yield

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.

Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.
The security is expected to be added at the global index’s March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry’s fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.
The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh

Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March.
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by <10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.

The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Borosil Renewables (BRSL IN) is India’s largest solar glass manufacturer having c apacity of 1000TPD in India and 350TPD in Germany.
With the rising demand and government anti-dumping duty support company is increasing 50% capacity in India to 1500TPD in the upcoming 18 Months.
Company also raised INR 700Crs of funds via preferential, 100Crs via equity from promoter and 600Crs via warrants from HNIs and family offices for capex and loan repayment.

The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred

By Aki Matsumoto

Investors want to see if management can be entrusted with strategies to increase certainty of achieving plans, to build foundations for growth to expand corporate value, and to manage company.
The problem is that the disclosed contents of the mid-term management plan do not include necessary information, or the goals themselves are not what investors are looking for.
Before disclosing medium-term management plans, companies should estimate how much return on capital can be achieved by the plan and how much the corporate value and stock price will be.

Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!

By Baptista Research

Columbia Sportswear Company’s fourth quarter and full-year financial performance for 2024 presented a mixed picture rooted in market dynamics and strategic initiatives.
On the earnings call, the company leadership, including CEO Tim Boyle, highlighted achievements in inventory management, cost savings, and international market growth, while acknowledging challenges faced in North American market conditions.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): FY25 Earnings Preview, 5.5x PE, 2x EV-EBITDA and 10% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

We present our outlook for Taste Gourmet’s (8371 HK) FY25 earnings, which will be announced in mid-June. We estimate revenue growth of 21% and net profit growth of 13%.
The mainboard listing catalyst is still in play with the company at the query stage with the SFC Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play.
Based on our earnings preview, the stock trades at 5.5x FY25PE, 2x EV-EBITDA, with 35% of the market cap in cash and a 10% dividend yield.

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Feb 11

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Brother Industries, Bestechnic Shanghai , Orica Ltd, T’Way Air, A2 Milk Co Ltd, Samsung SDS, Hyundai Motor India , Hanwha Aerospace and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together
Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC
Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month
Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air
S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

In the past month we have seen Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
We’ve also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided “in spring” with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC

The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread – still wide – is narrowing.

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks.
If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air

ACT’s team for T’way Air’s small shareholders plans to push for a public tender offer once they reach the 3% stake threshold.
Sono may shift its stance on a public tender offer. With a 3% stake gap, Sono must appease retail shareholders before the AGM, especially after the rights offering backlash.
FSC probe shows info leaks from brokers and law firms still trigger volume volatility before tender offers. Monitor T’way Air’s trading volume closely until February’s end.

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend

SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace announced that it plans to purchase a 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean.
This 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean is currently worth about 1.3 trillion won (US$0.9 billion). After this purchase, Hanwha Aerospace’s stake in Hanwha Ocean will increase from 23.14% to 30.44%.
There could be a further positive momentum on Hanwha Aerospace in the near-term due to its positive earnings report in 4Q24 combined with acquisition of additional stake in Hanwha Ocean.

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Feb 10

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 7th): Naver and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 7th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, Hd Hyundai Electric, Hyundai Motor
Gold Is Extremely OVERBOUGHT—Don’t Buy Now, Pullback on the Horizon!
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Kasikornbank, PTT, Bangkok Bank
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Alchip Technologies, Yageo, Wistron, Asmedia Technology
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 7th): Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision Industry, TSMC

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 7th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, Hd Hyundai Electric, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Feb 7th which has an aggregated holding worth USD481.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics, Hd Hyundai Electric, Hyundai Motor, SK Hynix.

Gold Is Extremely OVERBOUGHT—Don’t Buy Now, Pullback on the Horizon!

By Nico Rosti

In a previous insight we predicted that Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was about to rally. Since then, Gold has been rising for 6 consecutive weeks.
Our tactical quantitative models indicate that Gold (GOLD COMDTY) is OVERBOUGHT from a WEEKLY perspective, i.e. we expect a pullback that will last 1 or more weeks.
In this insight we will discuss both how much it can still rise and where to buy if there is a pullback, i.e. the support levels.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Kasikornbank, PTT, Bangkok Bank

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Feb 7th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Kasikornbank, PTT, Bangkok Bank, Bangkok Expressway and Metro, Carabao, Delta Electronics, CP ALL, Minor International, Gulf Energy Development.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Alchip Technologies, Yageo, Wistron, Asmedia Technology

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 7th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Alchip Technologies, Yageo, Wistron, Asmedia Technology, Fortune Electric, Htc, Elite Advanced Laser, Lite-On Technology.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 7th): Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision Industry, TSMC

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 7th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,047.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,496mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision Industry, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, Wistron.

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Feb 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slide as Jobs Report and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slide as Jobs Report, Inflation Fears Weigh
[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slide as Jobs Report, Inflation Fears Weigh

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks fell on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 400 points, due to concerns over tariffs and inflation.
Key inflation data is due out next week, including January’s consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale inflation figures, which may impact investor sentiment.
Major companies, including McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Unilever, will report earnings next week, providing insight into the health of the consumer sector.

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

By Eric Wen

Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV’s now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.

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Feb 10

Daily Brief ECM: Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case
ECM Weekly (10th Feb 2025) – Haitian, Guming, LG CNS, Dr Agarwal, Ola, Brainbees, Kaynes, Whirlpool
Pre-IPO Guming Holdings – Thoughts on Valuation
Softcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
In Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on mid-tier revenue growth, bottom-tier margins, low offshore mix, rising unbilled receivables/contract assets and a large post-IPO share overhang.

ECM Weekly (10th Feb 2025) – Haitian, Guming, LG CNS, Dr Agarwal, Ola, Brainbees, Kaynes, Whirlpool

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, neither of the two listings performed last week, while more are lining up to list across the region.
On the placements front, given the ongoing earnings season there weren’t any deals. We did look at lockups and other possible upcoming deals.

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings – Thoughts on Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

If based on the market value of HK$20.246 billion to HK$23.185 billion in this IPO, a single store market value is about HK$2-2.4 million, higher than that of Baicha Baidao.
Our forecast of 2024 net profit is RMB1.4 billion. Based on IPO price range of HK$8.68-9.94 per share, P/E is about 13.5-15.5x. There is still some upside room for valuation.
Investors may need more “safety margins” on valuation due to the pressure of performance growth after IPO.The higher the IPO price, the greater the risk of future valuation downward revisions.

Softcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Softcare (SOFT HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, CITIC and GF Securities.
SC is principally engaged in the development, manufacturing and sales of baby and feminine hygiene products, focusing on the fast-growing emerging markets, including Africa, Latin America and Central Asia.
As of September 30, 2024, SC had 18 sales branches in 12 countries, and an extensive sales network across over 2,500 wholesalers, distributors, supermarkets, and other retailers in total.

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Feb 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 7&I (3382) – In Limbo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together
Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163) – Oops! NTT Docomo May Not Be There As a Buyer
Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month
EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) – Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension
Merger Arb Mondays (10 Feb) – Shibaura, Makino, Fuji Soft, Tecnos, Tohto Suisan, Proto, Pentamaster
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s Scheme Buyback Vote On The 4th March
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 27 – 31): Implied Vol Very Reactive to Spot
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

In the past month we have seen Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
We’ve also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided “in spring” with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163) – Oops! NTT Docomo May Not Be There As a Buyer

On Friday, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) fell 12.5% in the last 90 minutes of trading. This was not due to their Q3 earnings release (out 30 January).
It seemed due to investor disappointment in the content of the NTT earnings call. As discussed in the forked insight, there had been speculation NTT would buy SBI Sumishin.
Investors had thought NTT would pay more than 28x earnings and a ¥600bn premium to book to buy the business. At 23.7x Mar25e EPS and 4.1x book, it’s still expensive.

Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks.
If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) – Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

By Gaudenz Schneider

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s meeting with US President Trump shines the spotlight on potential US tariffs on Japanese cars. Toyota Motor’s (7203 JP) high implied volatility expresses elevated risk.
Risk analysis suggests a range of option strategies. Implementation is challenging due to low liquidity in the Japanese market.
Option liquidity is higher in the US traded Toyota Motor Corp Spon ADR (TM US) which is the preferred route of implementation.

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Feb) – Shibaura, Makino, Fuji Soft, Tecnos, Tohto Suisan, Proto, Pentamaster

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Smart Share Global (EM US), ESR Group (1821 HK), Get Nice Financial.
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Proto Corp (4298 JP).

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s Scheme Buyback Vote On The 4th March

By David Blennerhassett

On the 10th December 2024, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a chunky 95% premium to undisturbed.
Assuming the Scheme gets up, Fosun International (656 HK) and concert parties would hold 100% in Fosun Tourism.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 4th March, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair and reasonable”.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 27 – 31): Implied Vol Very Reactive to Spot

By John Ley

Nikkei down 2.66% on Monday with Implied vol very reactive to the move jumping almost 3 points.
USD/JPY dropped 2.35% for the week, Nikkei fared better only losing 1.96%.
Open interest in the Nikkei dominated by Puts with 2 outstanding for every 1 Call.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs