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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Technopro Holdings, Soft99 Corp, Recruit Holdings, Tokyu Construction, Nippon Denko, Daiwabo Holdings, Chiba Kogyo Bank, Nhk Spring and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
  • [Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
  • TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870
  • Recruit Holdings: 1Q Earnings Is No Surprise but More Downside Ahead
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done
  • Tokyu Construction (1720 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Nippon Denko (5563 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
  • Daiwabo Holdings (3107 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

By Travis Lundy

  • This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
  • PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
  • This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

By Travis Lundy

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
  • The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
  • This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870

By Arun George

  • Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) announced a tender offer from Blackstone at JPY4,870, a 43.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,389 but at a slight discount to the last close.
  • While below the last close, Blackstone’s offer was a result of an auction process and was the highest binding offer. The offer also represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
  • Surprisingly, Blackstone has not disclosed irrevocables. The Board has a neutral opinion. Nevertheless, a fair auction process suggests there will be limited opposition to the offer. 

Recruit Holdings: 1Q Earnings Is No Surprise but More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 1Q results on Tuesday after market. As expected, topline declined 2.5% YoY falling below consensus. Productivity enhancements supported EBITDA growth.
  • With gradual cooling of labour markets, the HR Tech segment’s top line growth has declined and Recruit does not expect the segment to see strong growth in FY03/2026E.
  • Recruit’s share price dropped 4.4% during today’s trade and with further weakening of job markets, we think there is further opportunity to gain on the Short side.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done

By Arun George

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) has recommended an MBO from Mr. Hideaki Tanaka (CEO) at JPY2,465, a 52.2% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light as it implies a P/B of 0.93x and is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • Barring the emergence of an activist, a benign shareholder register and the irrevocables suggest that this is a done deal.

Tokyu Construction (1720 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY71.9bn, a 30.2% YoY increase, with operating profit at JPY2.2bn, reversing a prior loss.
  • Parent-only revenue was JPY68.9bn, with gross profit at JPY6.8bn, driven by completed construction revenue and margins.
  • Parent orders totaled JPY112.6bn, with Building Construction orders up 392.8% YoY, Civil Engineering orders down 27.7% YoY.

Nippon Denko (5563 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported 1H FY12/25 revenue of JPY38.1bn (+4.4% YoY) and net income of JPY468mn (-12.4% YoY).
  • A share buyback program was announced, with a maximum of 20.00mn shares and a JPY4.0bn acquisition cost cap.
  • The revised FY12/25 forecast anticipates revenue of JPY78.2bn (flat YoY) and net income of JPY1.6bn (-49.1% YoY).

Daiwabo Holdings (3107 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY290.6bn (+27.5% YoY), with IT Infrastructure Distribution at JPY286.7bn (+26.8% YoY) and Industrial Machinery at JPY3.9bn (+116.5% YoY).
  • Operating profit was JPY9.9bn (+131.1% YoY), with IT Infrastructure Distribution at JPY9.5bn (+117.8% YoY) and Industrial Machinery at JPY379mn.
  • Gross profit margin increased 1.1pp to 7.6%, while SG&A ratio fell 0.4pp to 4.2%, improving operating profit margin to 3.4%.

Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated ordinary income reached JPY15.8bn (+13.3% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY3.9bn (+36.2% YoY).
  • Loan balance increased to JPY2.43tn (+2.2% YoY), with deposits at JPY3.08tn (+0.2% YoY).
  • Capital adequacy ratio improved to 9.30% non-consolidated, reflecting higher capital and reduced risk-weighted assets.

Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 3.2% YoY, while operating profit and recurring profit declined by 9.2% and 37.4% YoY, respectively.
  • Automotive Seating and Automotive Suspension Spring segments posted lower revenue, while DDS and Precision Springs & Components segments recorded growth.
  • Global HDD production declined YoY, but demand for high-capacity HDDs for data centers increased, boosting HDD suspensions.

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Daily Brief China: Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, JD.com , Innovation Global Industries, Our United Corporation, Guming Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
  • Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview, Game Up by 16%
  • Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings
  • Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities
  • Google Is Our Biggest Rival, Kuaishou’s AI Video Chief Says
  • JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal
  • Innovation Global Industries Holdings Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Our United Corporation – The Business and the Concerns Behind
  • Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money


Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

By Brian Freitas

  • The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
  • Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
  • The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview, Game Up by 16%

By Ming Lu

  • We believe game revenue will continue to recover in 2Q25, riding on the policy easing.
  • We also believe the operating margin will improve slightly due to the usage of AI.
  • We expect the stock has an upside of 23% for year end 2025.

Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Tencent (700 HK) is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.
  • Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.
  • Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.
  • Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.
  • Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.

Google Is Our Biggest Rival, Kuaishou’s AI Video Chief Says

By Caixin Global

  • An executive at Kuaishou Technology has identified Google as the No. 1 rival to its artificial intelligence (AI) video generator Kling AI, as the short-video specialist tries to capitalize on growing public interest in the tools.
  • “Google is a very strong competitor to Kling AI in areas ranging from technology to AI infrastructure and talent, with co-founder Sergey Brin personally overseeing the research and development of its video generation models,” Wan Pengfei, head of Kuaishou’s visual generation and interaction center, said in an interview with Caixin on the sidelines of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai from Saturday to Monday.
  • Riding the AI video wave sparked by OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora in early 2024, Kuaishou in June that year launched Kling AI, which can create short videos from written prompts and images.

JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal

By Caixin Global

  • JD.com is making its boldest push yet into the European market. On Thursday, the Chinese e commerce giant announced plans to acquire all outstanding shares in Germany’s CeconomyAG, the parent company of electronics retailers MediaMarkt and Saturn, in a cash offer valuing the deal at about 2.2 billion euros ($2.5 billion).
  • Through its wholly owned subsidiary Jingdong Holding Germany GmbH, JD.com is offering 4.60 euros per share, a 43% premium to Ceconomy’s three month volume weighted average price and 23% above its July 23 close, before news of the potential takeover emerged.
  • Shares rose to 4.41 euros Thursday, up 1.26%. Upon completion, Ceconomy would be privatized and delisted.

Innovation Global Industries Holdings Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Innovation Global Industries (IGI HK) is looking to raise at least US$100mn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai Financial and CICC.
  • Innovation Group Industries Holdings is an upstream aluminium production company that primarily focuses on aluminium smelting and alumina refining.
  • Historically, the sale of electrolytic aluminum has been the main revenue driver for IGI, accounting for 95.5%, 90.5% and 85% of IGI’s revenue in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Pre-IPO Our United Corporation – The Business and the Concerns Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • OUR United’s business model is “high-end equipment sales + solution services”. The training system for domestically produced equipment is not yet fully mature, which limits large-scale promotion in hospitals.
  • OUR United’s products haven’t been widely recognized.Hospitals generally hold a cautious attitude towards domestic equipment, especially when it comes to complex cases, relying more on technological maturity of imported equipment. 
  • After the final round of financing, the valuation of OUR United was RMB5.135 billion, which is expensive due to the slow revenue growth and the uncertainties in commercialization outlook.

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
  • After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Daily Brief ECM: Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang
  • JSW Cement IPO: Reasonably Priced; Growth Momentum Not Concrete Enough To Sustain Valuation
  • Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Innovation Global Industries Holdings Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) Six Month Summary: A Volatile Debut with High-Stakes Catalysts Ahead
  • Pre-IPO Our United Corporation – The Business and the Concerns Behind


Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang

By Akshat Shah

  • Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. is looking to raise up to US$612m via a cleanup of its remaining ~2% stake in Eternal (ETERNAL IN) .
  • Antfin has been selling off parts of its ~14% stake in the firm since the IPO. The company last sold a 2% stake to raise upto US$400m in Aug 2024.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

JSW Cement IPO: Reasonably Priced; Growth Momentum Not Concrete Enough To Sustain Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • JSW Cement has filed for IPO to raise up to ₹36B. The company plans to sell 244.9M shares at between ₹139 and ₹147 per share.
  • JSW Cement is one of the mid-tier cement manufacturing companies with operations across southern, western, and eastern regions of India. It has an installed grinding capacity of 20.6 MMTPA.
  • The IPO offer price range appears to be a more reasonable for the company considering the fact that it lags behind on many fronts when compared to its peers.

Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Avendus, Axis, Citi, Kotak, MS and Intensive Fiscal Services.
  • Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
  • LSL’s largest market is India, and it was the largest seller of prescription eyeglasses in terms of volumes sold in India in FY25, according to the Redseer Report.

Innovation Global Industries Holdings Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Innovation Global Industries (IGI HK) is looking to raise at least US$100mn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai Financial and CICC.
  • Innovation Group Industries Holdings is an upstream aluminium production company that primarily focuses on aluminium smelting and alumina refining.
  • Historically, the sale of electrolytic aluminum has been the main revenue driver for IGI, accounting for 95.5%, 90.5% and 85% of IGI’s revenue in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) Six Month Summary: A Volatile Debut with High-Stakes Catalysts Ahead

By IPO Boutique

  • The company priced 8.75 million shares at $16.00, upsized from its original filing, and opened at $16.12—a 0.8% premium at first trade.
  • Amid broad biotech sector volatility and light volume, MAZE dropped to a low of $6.71 in April but has since rebounded closer to the IPO price. 
  • For Maze, the next chapter will be shaped by clinical data with readouts expected later this year and in the first quarter of 2026. 

Pre-IPO Our United Corporation – The Business and the Concerns Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • OUR United’s business model is “high-end equipment sales + solution services”. The training system for domestically produced equipment is not yet fully mature, which limits large-scale promotion in hospitals.
  • OUR United’s products haven’t been widely recognized.Hospitals generally hold a cautious attitude towards domestic equipment, especially when it comes to complex cases, relying more on technological maturity of imported equipment. 
  • After the final round of financing, the valuation of OUR United was RMB5.135 billion, which is expensive due to the slow revenue growth and the uncertainties in commercialization outlook.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview, Game Up by 16%
  • Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea
  • How Microsoft Research Balances Exploration and Impact Globally with Doug Burger
  • American Electric Power (AEP): Regulatory & Legislative Developments As Significant Drivers For Future Performance!
  • Recruit Holdings: 1Q Earnings Is No Surprise but More Downside Ahead
  • Meta’s Record Revenues, Soaring Stock & Utopian AI: Will Zuckerberg’s $31 Billion AI Bet Pay Off?
  • Microsoft’s Cloud Tsunami: $46.7B Quarter
  • Qualcomm’s Personal AI Revolution—Prepping For A World Beyond Screens?
  • Google Is Our Biggest Rival, Kuaishou’s AI Video Chief Says
  • The Kopran Merger: From APIs to Diagnostics, A Blueprint for Healthcare Integration


Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview, Game Up by 16%

By Ming Lu

  • We believe game revenue will continue to recover in 2Q25, riding on the policy easing.
  • We also believe the operating margin will improve slightly due to the usage of AI.
  • We expect the stock has an upside of 23% for year end 2025.

Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 August, the Korean government confirmed visa-free entry of group tourists from China to South Korea.
  • The new policy will allow the group tourists from China to visit South Korea on a visa-free basis from 29 September 2025 to end of June 2026.
  • We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.

How Microsoft Research Balances Exploration and Impact Globally with Doug Burger

By Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

  • Expansion of Microsoft Research to Singapore as a regional research and development frontier
  • Focus on AI research in Singapore, including foundational AI, embodied AI, and AI in health
  • Importance of tapping into local talent and culture for AI development

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


American Electric Power (AEP): Regulatory & Legislative Developments As Significant Drivers For Future Performance!

By Baptista Research

  • American Electric Power’s (AEP) second quarter of 2025 showcased several pivotal developments and a strong financial performance, indicative of both strategic progress and growth potential.
  • This summary encapsulates the earnings call highlights, offering a balanced view of the company’s current state and future prospects.
  • First, AEP reported a record-breaking second quarter with operating earnings of $1.43 per share, a notable increase from the previous year’s $1.25 per share.

Recruit Holdings: 1Q Earnings Is No Surprise but More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 1Q results on Tuesday after market. As expected, topline declined 2.5% YoY falling below consensus. Productivity enhancements supported EBITDA growth.
  • With gradual cooling of labour markets, the HR Tech segment’s top line growth has declined and Recruit does not expect the segment to see strong growth in FY03/2026E.
  • Recruit’s share price dropped 4.4% during today’s trade and with further weakening of job markets, we think there is further opportunity to gain on the Short side.

Meta’s Record Revenues, Soaring Stock & Utopian AI: Will Zuckerberg’s $31 Billion AI Bet Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Meta Platforms delivered a standout performance in the second quarter of 2025, with shares surging 12% to $779.70, just shy of its all-time high.
  • The company significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, reporting earnings per share of $7.14 versus the expected $5.88 and revenue of $47.5 billion, up 22% year-over-year.
  • This strong financial showing was driven by growth in daily users, ad impressions, and price-per-ad across Meta’s platforms.

Microsoft’s Cloud Tsunami: $46.7B Quarter

By Baptista Research

  • Microsoft reported a strong finish to fiscal year 2025, delivering financial results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and underscored its continued momentum in cloud and AI-driven services.
  • For the fiscal fourth quarter, Microsoft posted adjusted earnings of $3.65 per share on revenue of $76.4 billion, handily beating the consensus estimates of $3.37 per share on $73.9 billion in revenue.
  • This marked a notable improvement over the prior year’s fourth-quarter figures of $2.95 per share on $64.7 billion in revenue.

Qualcomm’s Personal AI Revolution—Prepping For A World Beyond Screens?

By Baptista Research

  • Qualcomm recently reported its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results, delivering revenues of $10.4 billion and a nonGAAP EPS of $2.77, which were near the high end of guidance.
  • The company’s chipset business, QCT, recorded revenues of $9 billion, reflecting ongoing growth across automotive, IoT, and handset segments.
  • Notably, automotive and IoT revenues increased by 21% and 24% year-over-year, respectively, driven by Qualcomm’s strategy to diversify and expand its product offerings beyond mobile handsets.

Google Is Our Biggest Rival, Kuaishou’s AI Video Chief Says

By Caixin Global

  • An executive at Kuaishou Technology has identified Google as the No. 1 rival to its artificial intelligence (AI) video generator Kling AI, as the short-video specialist tries to capitalize on growing public interest in the tools.
  • “Google is a very strong competitor to Kling AI in areas ranging from technology to AI infrastructure and talent, with co-founder Sergey Brin personally overseeing the research and development of its video generation models,” Wan Pengfei, head of Kuaishou’s visual generation and interaction center, said in an interview with Caixin on the sidelines of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai from Saturday to Monday.
  • Riding the AI video wave sparked by OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora in early 2024, Kuaishou in June that year launched Kling AI, which can create short videos from written prompts and images.

The Kopran Merger: From APIs to Diagnostics, A Blueprint for Healthcare Integration

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kopran Limited has approved the merger of its diagnostics arm, Kopran Laboratories, aiming to become a fully integrated pharmaceutical and healthcare solutions provider. 
  • The merger diversifies Kopran’s revenue mix, enhances EBITDA margins with high-value consumables, and unlocks synergies across pharma and diagnostics distribution channels. 
  • Kopran transitions from a mid-scale exporter to a multi-vertical healthcare platform, with stronger earnings visibility, improved capital efficiency, and potential for valuation re-rating.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] ¥4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
  • [Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
  • A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks
  • Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal
  • Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$1.72
  • TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870
  • Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done
  • BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success
  • Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money


[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

By Travis Lundy

  • This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
  • PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
  • This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

By Travis Lundy

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
  • The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
  • This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

By Sanghyun Park

  • With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
  • If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
  • This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
  • TPG is offering A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The transaction requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards.
  • As discussed in Infomedia (IFM AU): Now A Three-Way Hunt, Infomedia fielded various indicative Offers (including TA Associates/Viburnum, Battery Ventures, and Solera) in 2022, none of which went the distance.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$1.72

By Arun George

  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with TPG Inc (TPG US) at A$1.72, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price of A$1.32 (5 August).
  • The scheme is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, given a reasonable offer and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids. 
  • At the last close and for an end-of-November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/7.5%.

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870

By Arun George

  • Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) announced a tender offer from Blackstone at JPY4,870, a 43.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,389 but at a slight discount to the last close.
  • While below the last close, Blackstone’s offer was a result of an auction process and was the highest binding offer. The offer also represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
  • Surprisingly, Blackstone has not disclosed irrevocables. The Board has a neutral opinion. Nevertheless, a fair auction process suggests there will be limited opposition to the offer. 

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.
  • Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.
  • Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done

By Arun George

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) has recommended an MBO from Mr. Hideaki Tanaka (CEO) at JPY2,465, a 52.2% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light as it implies a P/B of 0.93x and is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • Barring the emergence of an activist, a benign shareholder register and the irrevocables suggest that this is a done deal.

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
  • Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
  • Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
  • After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy
  • Front-end UST yields rose yesterday, following a soft auction of 3Y notes, as well as an unexpected increase in the prices component of the ISM services survey.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST increased 5 bps to 3.73%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.21%. Equities retreated, amid the weak ISM services data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities


Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Recent legislations in major economies have propelled the mainstream adoption of stablecoin. While offshore use of stablecoin has been centered around crypto trading and informal economies, we believe the regulated stablecoins present two key opportunities: “open-source digital wallets” for payments and “open clearing houses” for settlements.
  • Digital wallet payment solutions built around stablecoin have a much lower bar than building a web2 digital wallet company, in both technology and commercial terms.
  • In developed economies dominated by credit cards, stablecoins could drive a new wave of digital wallet adoption, potentially capturing significant market share.

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Daily Brief Macro: Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement, Rates Go Nowhere, Apple M&A?, Earnings Updates
  • EA: Resilient Retail Rebound
  • Separate Dividend Tax Plan in Korea: Devil Is In the Details
  • 80% Of Our 2025 Calls Are Working
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Monthly GDP and PEMEX
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Jul)
  • CX Daily: Cost-Cutting Freezes Over 35s Out of China’s Job Market
  • Actinver Research – Consumer Post 2Q25 Update


Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement, Rates Go Nowhere, Apple M&A?, Earnings Updates

By The Synopsis

  • New newsletter format called “The Briefing” provides quick market synopsis and company information, also available in podcast form on speedwellmemos.com
  • Recent market events include S&P 500 reaching all-time high before job report and new tariffs cause market to drop, Fed considering rate cut in response to softening economy
  • President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell for not lowering rates, Powell cautious on rate cuts to avoid inflation, history of rate mistakes highlighted

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


EA: Resilient Retail Rebound

By Phil Rush

  • Consumers need to drive activity growth as tariffs and Euro strength harm export competitiveness. Reassuringly, retail sales returned to their trend after a trimmed fall.
  • Growth was broad across countries and categories, taking the annual pace 0.5pp above consensus expectations. Non-food retail is critical and the strongest of them all.
  • Surveys are gloomier, especially about the future, but rarely right. Resilient real wage and employment growth can sustain brisk retail trends, preserving economic expansion.

Separate Dividend Tax Plan in Korea: Devil Is In the Details

By Douglas Kim

  • A closer look at MOSF’s Tax Reform Plan for dividends suggests that it may not have a material impact on most listed companies unless the National Assembly drastically improves it.
  • According to MOSF, it currently estimates that approximately 350 of the 2,500 listed companies, or 14%, could meet these requirements (two main dividend tax reduction requirements). 
  • We provide a list of 70 companies in the Korean stock market with 40% or higher dividend payouts (excluding companies with smaller market caps). 

80% Of Our 2025 Calls Are Working

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Only one of our non-consensus macro calls are not working and eight of eleven markets are moving our directions. 
  • Our latest business cycle indicator assessment points to a better second half. 
  • 2025 Investment Strategy maintained. We are overweight equities and underweight government bonds.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Monthly GDP and PEMEX

By Actinver

  • The economy remained stagnant in May due to an unexpected contraction in some services.
  • In the second half of the year, we continue to expect a heterogeneous performance across industries, which will result in low economic growth in 2025.
  • Monthly GDP showed a 0.01% month-over-month (MoM) increase, falling short of INEGI’s preliminary estimate (0.3% MoM), the market consensus (0.20% MoM), and our own estimate (0.3% MoM).

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Jul)

By Actinver

  • We expect inflation for the second half of July to stand at 0.11% bw, due to a lack of price increases in agricultural products.
  • On an annual basis, headline inflation would be 3.53%. Typically, inflation for this period is around 0.18% bw.
  • Our lower estimate is explained by an expected stagnation in agricultural prices (-0.02% bw). 

CX Daily: Cost-Cutting Freezes Over 35s Out of China’s Job Market

By Caixin Global

  • Jobs /In Depth: Cost-cutting freezes over-35s out of China’s job market
  • Obituary /: Cho-yun Hsu, influential historian of ancient China, dies at 95
  • Services /Chart of the Day: China’s first-half services trade hits 10-year high

Actinver Research – Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

By Actinver

  • Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
  • As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
  • Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Horizon Robotics, Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, Shibaura Electronics, AEM, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, HKBN Ltd, Softbank Group, Intel Corp, KPIT Technologies, Hochiki Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
  • Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus
  • AEM Holdings: Another CEO, Another Kitchen Sink?
  • S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open
  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)
  • Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
  • KPIT Tech (“KPIT”): Decent Q1FY26 Despite Tough Macro
  • Hochiki Corp (6745 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
  • Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
  • Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

By Sanghyun Park

  • From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
  • Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
  • Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus

By Arun George

  • Reuters reports that the Ministry of Finance of Japan reclassified Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) to Type 3 (core designated company).
  • Reportedly, Yageo’s application was made with a view to Shibaura’s businesses falling under the core category. A blocked deal would set back Prime Minister Ishiba’s goal to improve China relations. 
  • The change to Shibaura’s designation to core helps explain the elongated approval process, as the Ministry of Finance and Yageo need time to agree on acceptable undertakings. 

AEM Holdings: Another CEO, Another Kitchen Sink?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO, Samer Kabbani, would take over with immediate effect.
  • The previous CEO, Amy Leong, had only been in the job for about a year. The rapid change of CEO does not instill confidence going into 2Q25 results next week.
  • New CEO’s frequently kitchen sink upon their appointment, will Samer continue this trend?

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

By Dimitris Ioannidis


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 1st August, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced China Mobile (941 HK) had satisfied all pre-cons. The Offer Doc is now out.
  • The First Close is the 3rd September with payment potentially on or around the 12th September – if the Offer turns unconditional on the First Close.
  • There is no IFA opinion in this Doc. That will be present in the Response Doc, which is expected to be dispatched on or before the 20th August. 

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)

By Nico Rosti

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) is about to release its earnings on August 7th. 
  • The stock pulled back last week but this week is rallying. The rally can easily reach Q2 (12416) and Q3 (13003) resistance zones, if the earnings are good.
  • If the earnings are disappointing, look for initial support at 11145 (Q3).  If earnings are really disappointing, look at 10086 (outliers zone).

Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

By William Keating

  • Tesla & Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
  • Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated “Risk Factors” section in their latest 10K.
  • This isn’t Intel playing politics, there’s no point. It’s LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It’s that simple…

KPIT Tech (“KPIT”): Decent Q1FY26 Despite Tough Macro

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT reported a decent Q1FY26 considering the tough macro environment faced by its global auto OEM clients, who are struggling due to tariff uncertainty and intense competition from China OEMs.
  • KPIT announced new deal wins worth $241mm vs typical run-rate of $170mm. Q1FY26 revenue grew 4.9% YoY and -3.2% QoQ in constant currency terms, led by Powertrain and Connected domains.
  • A key highlight of Q1FY26 was KPIT announcing partnership with JSW for its new EV vehicle program. EBITDA margin stayed steady at 21% led by operational efficiency and currency gains.

Hochiki Corp (6745 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 consolidated revenue reached JPY22.4bn, a 7.1% YoY increase, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of growth.
  • Operating profit surged approximately 2.2x YoY to JPY1.1bn, with an OPM increase of 2.4pp to 4.8%.
  • Orders increased by 8.9% YoY to JPY34.5bn, while the order backlog decreased by 3.0% YoY to JPY39.5bn.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, Ecopro BM , Hana Financial, SK Biopharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
  • Ecopro BM: Another Major Rechargeable Battery Play With A Sharp Improvement In Earnings in 2Q 2025
  • Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Momentum Accelerates With Record High Q2 Profit


Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

By Sanghyun Park

  • From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
  • Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
  • Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.

Ecopro BM: Another Major Rechargeable Battery Play With A Sharp Improvement In Earnings in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro BM reported net profit of 34.3 billion won (up 397% YoY and TB YoY in 2Q25). Profits from its Indonesian investment also contributed to earnings, reaching 40.5 billion won.
  • The European EV market started to turn around in 2Q 2025 driven by OEM new car launches and customer inventory normalization compared to the end of 2024.
  • There are increasing signs of a positive turnaround at Ecopro BM. The company’s excellent results in 2Q 2025 are likely to result in higher earnings revisions by the consensus.

Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

  • We stick with Hana Financial as our sole buy in Korean banks; even though it does not top our proprietary scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving
  • We downgrade Woori to a neutral from a buy, with Woori now trading at a PBV premium to Hana; historically, this has been an indicator of future poor share performance
  • KB Financial ranks top in our scorecard; KB is one watch, but remains a neutral due to limited appeal in terms of valuation

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Momentum Accelerates With Record High Q2 Profit

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS) (SKBP) reported record high second quarter earnings in 2Q25 on surging U.S. sales of Xcopri, which surpassed quarterly revenue of $100M for the first time.
  • During 2Q25, revenue increased 32% YoY and 22% QoQ to KRW176B, while operating profit improved at a faster pace of 138% YoY and 141% QoQ to KRW62B.
  • For 2025, SKBP maintained Xcopri U.S. revenue guidance of $420–450M (~KRW570–610B), up 31–40% YoY. With 1H25 revenue of $201M, the company is expected to meet the target.

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