Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Company Spotlight: Delfi

Singapore Stocks with the Most Net Retail Buy & Sells in Early 2025

Retail investors net bought S$487 million in Singapore shares since end-2024, focusing on Financial Services, REITs, Technology.
Non-STI stocks with highest net retail buying: Keppel REIT, AEM Holdings, CapitaLand India Trust, CapitaLand Ascott Trust, iFAST Corporation.
SGX-listed REIT ETFs attracted S$38 million net inflows in 2025, increasing AUM to over S$1 billion.

STI Begins New Year with 1.8% Return, Led by Singtel & Seatrium

Banks DBS, OCBC, and UOB, accounting for 54% of STI’s weight, averaged 3.2% returns in January 2025.
Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow exceeding S$500 million in January 2025.
Keppel Pacific Oak REIT led the S-REIT sector with a 17.1% return in USD terms in January 2025.

REIT Watch – Singapore-based Office S-REITs report stronger operational performance

Keppel REIT’s FY2024 property income and NPI increased by 12.2% and 10.7% year-on-year, with a 13.2% rental reversion.
MPACT’s 3Q FY24/25 gross revenue and NPI decreased by 7.4% and 8.5% year-on-year, with a 9.1% DPU dip.
OUE REIT’s FY2024 revenue grew 3.7% year-on-year, with a 94.6% occupancy rate and 10.7% rent reversion.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Soft Inc, Proto Corp, Tecnos Japan, Tohto Suisan, Toc Co Ltd, Nintendo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850
Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) – Small Cap IT Consultant Goes Private – Activist Pitches In
TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes
Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High
Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre
Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

KKR & Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week.
Expect a final round of bids, as KKR’s offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR’s offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range.

Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)

Proto Corp (4298 JP) is not the name on people’s lips, but everyone who knows cars in Japan knows this company. They have run car mags for decades.
Now they do other things too but car magazines, websites, and associated data provision are worth 90% of OP. And they are ubiquitous, and growth has been good.
Management forecasts for growth are a damp squib. This is opportunistic.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Ant Capital at JPY1,155, a 38.7% premium to the last close.
The offer is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and represents a seven-year high.
Ant has secured irrevocables from the top three shareholders. However, the largest shareholder’s irrevocable has a counteroffer and share price clause, which could result in a competing bid.

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP)‘s tender offer from Aso Corp is JPY7,500, a 39.1% premium to the last close. Tohto Suisan is currently in breach of the tradable share ratio.
Unusually, the offer has no lower or upper limit. If the required ownership ratio is secured, Aso will implement squeeze-out procedures.
While supportive, the Board has left the decision to accept or reject the offer at the shareholders’ discretion. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) – Small Cap IT Consultant Goes Private – Activist Pitches In

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) decided it wanted to go private. It has a bunch of large shareholders and a lot of retail, and was getting kicked out of TOPIX.
An activist bought 6% last spring, Tecnos conducted a bidding process last fall. Ant Capital won. The activist has 10+% now. They and two others with 25% agreed to tender.
This should get done easily. It is not expensive, but an auction is good process and should be a model for deals done in future.

TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes

7 years ago I wrote a big piece titled TOC’s BIGLY Buyback Makes It a Takeout Target. I thought the shareholder structure and buyback plans looked like a creeping takeover.
In December 2017, Effissimo had sold a very large stake back to the company. I wrote in March 2018. 10mos later they did another and I wrote again.
Since then they’ve bought back a bit more. Today they are buying back another 5%. It still looks like a potential takeover.

Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High

Proto Corp (4298 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer at JPY2,100, a 64.1% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and 25% above the all-time high.
Despite the presence of two substantial shareholders, an attractive offer suggests that this is a done deal. The tender offer ends on 21 March, with payment on 28 March

Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre

In Dec 2024, Bain announced it would overbid KKR’s bid without requiring Fuji Soft’s approval, backed by the founding family. In early Jan 2025, we got an anticipated start date.
That anticipated start date is upon us. KKR’s deal to close 7 Feb is now bumped to ¥9,800 and extended 7 days, suggesting Bain’s bid beacons.
I think they’ll have to go to ¥10,000 and from here there may not be much upside. I’d rather stay away.

Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough

By Mark Chadwick

Switch slowdown: Nintendo’s Q3 revenue and profit fell sharply as the ageing console nears the end of its cycle, missing hardware sales expectations.
Guidance cut: Full-year revenue and profit forecasts were lowered, but investors remain focused on the upcoming Switch 2 launch.
Muted upside: Switch 2 is an incremental upgrade, unlikely to expand the market significantly or boost Nintendo’s valuation beyond its current fair value of ¥9,000 per share.

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share

4+ years ago Aso Corp launched a Tender Offer to buy 33.4% or up to 100% of marine products wholesaler Tohto Suisan (8038 JP). They got just over a third.
Then it became a zombie as I warned Tohto Suisan Partial Tender Offer – A Weird Tender Which Leads To Listed Zombie-Ism. But it moved around.
Today, Aso announces a tender to take out minorities, almost all of whom are other corporate holders. It’s at a 39% premium and 1.2x book. It should get done.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Utilities: Barito Renewables Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

By Brian Freitas

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, LG CNS, Tecnos Japan, Netmarble , Nintendo, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, Hennge KK and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850
LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer
Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) – Small Cap IT Consultant Goes Private – Activist Pitches In
Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre
Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — First Software IPO of the Year: Thoma Bravo Seeking $11.5b IPO Valuation
SailPoint IPO Valuation Update: Modest Upside, Only ~$690M Will Be Used To Repay a Portion Of Debt
Hennge KK (4475 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

KKR & Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week.
Expect a final round of bids, as KKR’s offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR’s offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range.

LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Ant Capital at JPY1,155, a 38.7% premium to the last close.
The offer is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and represents a seven-year high.
Ant has secured irrevocables from the top three shareholders. However, the largest shareholder’s irrevocable has a counteroffer and share price clause, which could result in a competing bid.

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

By Brian Freitas

There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) – Small Cap IT Consultant Goes Private – Activist Pitches In

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) decided it wanted to go private. It has a bunch of large shareholders and a lot of retail, and was getting kicked out of TOPIX.
An activist bought 6% last spring, Tecnos conducted a bidding process last fall. Ant Capital won. The activist has 10+% now. They and two others with 25% agreed to tender.
This should get done easily. It is not expensive, but an auction is good process and should be a model for deals done in future.

Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre

In Dec 2024, Bain announced it would overbid KKR’s bid without requiring Fuji Soft’s approval, backed by the founding family. In early Jan 2025, we got an anticipated start date.
That anticipated start date is upon us. KKR’s deal to close 7 Feb is now bumped to ¥9,800 and extended 7 days, suggesting Bain’s bid beacons.
I think they’ll have to go to ¥10,000 and from here there may not be much upside. I’d rather stay away.

Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough

By Mark Chadwick

Switch slowdown: Nintendo’s Q3 revenue and profit fell sharply as the ageing console nears the end of its cycle, missing hardware sales expectations.
Guidance cut: Full-year revenue and profit forecasts were lowered, but investors remain focused on the upcoming Switch 2 launch.
Muted upside: Switch 2 is an incremental upgrade, unlikely to expand the market significantly or boost Nintendo’s valuation beyond its current fair value of ¥9,000 per share.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — First Software IPO of the Year: Thoma Bravo Seeking $11.5b IPO Valuation

By IPO Boutique

SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo and is seeking a valuation north of $11b after taking the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
The sponsor will be only selling 2.5mm shares in this offering.
As of October 31, 2024, their annual recurring revenue was $813.2 million, reflecting an increase of 30% compared to October 31, 2023.

SailPoint IPO Valuation Update: Modest Upside, Only ~$690M Will Be Used To Repay a Portion Of Debt

By Andrei Zakharov

Austin-Based SailPoint, a Thoma Bravo-backed identity management software company, has announced the initial price range for its US IPO.
The offering is expected to be between $19.00 and $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$11B at the midpoint, up ~61% vs. take-private transaction valuation of ~$6.9B in 2022.
I see modest post-listing upside for SailPoint stock, and the company plans to use only ~$690M to repay a portion of its $1.5B+ debt.

Hennge KK (4475 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

Revenue increased 31.1% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with HENNGE One revenue at JPY2.3bn and Professional Service at JPY175mn.
Operating profit rose 37.3% YoY to JPY529mn, with a margin of 21.1% and SG&A expenses at JPY1.6bn.
Gross profit reached JPY2.1bn, gross margin at 85.5%, and advertising expenses increased 68.8% YoY to JPY157mn.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Grab Holdings , IWG PLC, Northrop Grumman, United Parcel Service Cl B, Takara Standard, Daiichi Jitsugyo, Caterpillar Inc, Parker Hannifin, Roper Technologies, Alinco Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?
1 Main Capital’s Yaron Naymark on some general investor skepticism with $IWG.L thesis
Northrop Grumman: Does Its Role in National Security Really Shield It From Market Volatility? – Major Drivers
United Parcel Service (UPS): International Diversification to Capitalize On Emerging Trades! – Major Drivers
Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Caterpillar Inc.: An Insight Into Its Pricing Strategies & Market Conditions! – Major Drivers
Parker Hannifin: How the Meggitt Acquisition Reshapes Its Aerospace Business! – Major Drivers
Roper Technologies: How a Software-First Strategy is Reshaping Growth! – Major Drivers
Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

By Angus Mackintosh

Press reports suggest that a merger between GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability.
Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.
Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.

1 Main Capital’s Yaron Naymark on some general investor skepticism with $IWG.L thesis

By Yet Another Value Podcast

IWG is the largest co working flex office company in the world, with brands like Regus, Spaces, HQ signature and The Lights
The company has been profitable and has grown through a capital light strategy of managed and franchise models
The stock is currently undervalued, with potential for significant growth in earnings and free cash flow from the managed business in the upcoming years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Northrop Grumman: Does Its Role in National Security Really Shield It From Market Volatility? – Major Drivers

Northrop Grumman reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing both achievements and challenges.
The company ended the year with a record backlog of approximately $91.5 billion and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x, indicating strong demand in both domestic and international markets.
This demand is supported by new contract wins, such as the TACAMO program and the B-21’s second LRIP Lot, as well as ongoing programs like Poland’s IBCS system, which contributes to an international book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x.

United Parcel Service (UPS): International Diversification to Capitalize On Emerging Trades! – Major Drivers

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) delivered a mixed fourth-quarter 2024 performance, reflecting strategic operational adjustments and market challenges.
Highlighting a slight revenue growth with significant profit and margin expansion, UPS navigated the complexities of a shifting logistics landscape while undergoing significant operational transformations.
UPS reported a consolidated revenue increase of 1.5% year-over-year to $25.3 billion for Q4 2024.

Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY184.3bn (+2.7% YoY) and operating profit JPY12.9bn (+20.1% YoY), driven by strong new housing sales.
Cumulative Q3 revenue achieved 77.1% of FY03/25 forecast, with operating profit at 88.8% and net income at 93.3%.
New housing complex market revenue grew 12.0% YoY, while remodeling market revenue declined 5.2% YoY.

Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

In cumulative Q3 FY03/25, orders were JPY155.9bn (-0.7% YoY), revenue JPY160.8bn (+36.9% YoY), net income JPY7.3bn.
Revenue increased due to higher sales in plant equipment, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and molding machines, boosting operating profit.
Orders and revenue rose in automotive, medical device, and airline equipment sectors, leading to significant operating profit growth.

Caterpillar Inc.: An Insight Into Its Pricing Strategies & Market Conditions! – Major Drivers

Caterpillar Inc.’s performance for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2024 demonstrates a mixed set of outcomes, underscoring both the strengths and challenges faced by the company.
The diversified nature of its end markets and its sustained focus on long-term strategic goals have been pivotal in maintaining a relatively stable financial position despite a decrease in top-line results.
Positively, Caterpillar reported a record adjusted profit per share for the year at $21.90, a 3% increase over 2023, and achieved an adjusted operating profit margin of 20.7%.

Parker Hannifin: How the Meggitt Acquisition Reshapes Its Aerospace Business! – Major Drivers

Parker-Hannifin Corporation recently reported its fiscal 2025 second-quarter results, showcasing both commendable achievements and areas for improvement.
The company demonstrated strong operational excellence despite facing some top-line pressures and a slightly challenging market environment.
Notably, Parker-Hannifin achieved record second-quarter adjusted segment operating margins of 25.6%, marking a 110 basis point improvement year-over-year.

Roper Technologies: How a Software-First Strategy is Reshaping Growth! – Major Drivers

Roper Technologies delivered a strong financial performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2024, characterized by significant revenue and cash flow growth.
For the year, the company achieved a 14% revenue increase, driven by equal contributions from organic expansion and strategic acquisitions.
Roper demonstrated robust cash flow generation with a 16% year-over-year increase in free cash flow, reaching over $2 billion, while maintaining impressive free cash flow margins of 32%.

Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY47.2bn (+5.6% YoY), operating profit JPY2.0bn (+6.7% YoY), recurring profit JPY2.6bn (-5.5% YoY).
Revenue for construction materials was JPY19.1bn (+16.0% YoY), segment profit JPY1.9bn (-5.9% YoY) due to higher costs.
Revenue for low-power radios was JPY3.7bn (-7.2% YoY), segment loss JPY444mn due to lower sales and higher expenses.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Consumer: Tam Jai International, Proto Corp, Tohto Suisan, Ola Electric, Guming Holdings, SHEIN, Multi Bintang Indonesia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer
Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer
Ola Electric IPO Lockup – US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release
Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High
Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End
Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share
Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?
Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield

Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer

By David Blennerhassett

Tam Jai International (2217 HK), an operator of Asia noodle specialty restaurants, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
On the 13th November 2024, Tam Jai announced 1H25 net profit – to 30th September 2024 – declined 55.8% yoy to HK$36.1mn, its lowest six-month tally since listing.
Toridoll Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) controls 74.61% of Tam Jai. Expect a Scheme to unfold. An Offer price around HK$1.50/share would be welcome. That’s probably a stretch.

Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)

Proto Corp (4298 JP) is not the name on people’s lips, but everyone who knows cars in Japan knows this company. They have run car mags for decades.
Now they do other things too but car magazines, websites, and associated data provision are worth 90% of OP. And they are ubiquitous, and growth has been good.
Management forecasts for growth are a damp squib. This is opportunistic.

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP)‘s tender offer from Aso Corp is JPY7,500, a 39.1% premium to the last close. Tohto Suisan is currently in breach of the tradable share ratio.
Unusually, the offer has no lower or upper limit. If the required ownership ratio is secured, Aso will implement squeeze-out procedures.
While supportive, the Board has left the decision to accept or reject the offer at the shareholders’ discretion. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high.

Ola Electric IPO Lockup – US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High

Proto Corp (4298 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer at JPY2,100, a 64.1% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and 25% above the all-time high.
Despite the presence of two substantial shareholders, an attractive offer suggests that this is a done deal. The tender offer ends on 21 March, with payment on 28 March

Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

By Clarence Chu

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu

By Daniel Hellberg

By executive order, President Trump suspended section 321 (“de minimis“) imports on Feb 4th
Direct-To-Consumer imports valued at < US$800 may no longer enter the US duty-free
Added cost and new paperwork burden (both borne by US consumers) to hit SHEIN, Temu

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share

4+ years ago Aso Corp launched a Tender Offer to buy 33.4% or up to 100% of marine products wholesaler Tohto Suisan (8038 JP). They got just over a third.
Then it became a zombie as I warned Tohto Suisan Partial Tender Offer – A Weird Tender Which Leads To Listed Zombie-Ism. But it moved around.
Today, Aso announces a tender to take out minorities, almost all of whom are other corporate holders. It’s at a 39% premium and 1.2x book. It should get done.

Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?

By Devi Subhakesan

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is offering 158.6 million shares in a price range of HK$8.68 to HK$9.94 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1.58 Bn.
Despite outperforming peers in revenue and profit growth, Guming is grappling with a bleak macro environment, operational slowdowns, and intensified competition.
Guming Holdings (GUM HK) ‘s faltering operating metrics for last reporting period cast doubt on its near-term growth and profitability outlook—leaving investors to ask: Sip or skip?

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) saw significant inflection in Q3 FY24, with revenue and net profit growth of 21.9% and 35%, respectively. Strong growth is anticipated in Q4’s high season.
Our confidence in MLBI’s Q4 stems from Bali’s impressive tourism statistics, registering a 17% YoY increase in Q3 FY24 and 19% YoY in Q4 FY24 (up to November).
With a 10.4x FY24e PE valuation, over 9% dividend yield, and historical ROCEs surpassing 80%, we believe the share price is at a turning point.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Excel Industries, Crude Oil, Baker Hughes, Natural Gas, Dow , International Paper Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

The Beat Ideas: Excel Industries Ltd
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/05] WTI Falls on Softening Demand Outlook and Rising Inventories
Baker Hughes: Is Its Upstream Shift Enough to Counter Industry Cyclicality? – Major Drivers
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/05] Henry Hub Slipped as Mild Forecasts Undercut Demand
Dow Inc.: Global Expansion & Product Launches Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
International Paper: Can E-Commerce Growth Offset Pricing Pressures in Containerboard? – Major Drivers

The Beat Ideas: Excel Industries Ltd

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Excel Industries (EXL IN) faced severe financial declines in FY24 but showed early Q2 FY25 improvement through higher export revenues and better margins amid strategic capacity expansion and new partnerships.
Its diversified product portfolio, especially DETC, and proactive R&D investments are key to overcoming volatility, making Excel Industries pivotal in sustaining India’s chemical innovation despite market headwinds.
Investors should note that despite recent downturns, targeted expansion and strategic partnerships could reverse performance trends, revealing potential long-term value if operational challenges are resolved.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/05] WTI Falls on Softening Demand Outlook and Rising Inventories

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures fell by 2.9% for the week ending 31/Jan on the back of trade policy uncertainty, growing U.S. crude stockpiles, and a strengthening dollar.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.31 from 0.85 (24/Jan) last week, as call volume rose by 78.1% WoW while put volume surged by 176.3%.
WTI OI PCR fell to 1.00 from 1.01 last week. Call OI rose by 8.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 6.9%.

Baker Hughes: Is Its Upstream Shift Enough to Counter Industry Cyclicality? – Major Drivers

Baker Hughes Company (Baker Hughes) presented a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showing notable growth across several financial metrics, yet managing challenges characteristic of the energy and industrial sectors.
The company exceeded the midpoint of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for the eighth consecutive quarter.
The fourth quarter set new records for revenue, free cash flow, adjusted earnings per share (EPS), and adjusted EBITDA and margins.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/05] Henry Hub Slipped as Mild Forecasts Undercut Demand

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 31/Jan, U.S. natural gas prices dropped by 24.4% amid volatile weather forecasts and softening heating demand outlook.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.50 from 1.05 (24/Jan) the previous week as call volumes fell by 40.2% WoW, while put volumes declined by 14.7%.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 from 0.93 from last week. Call OI fell by 17.0% WoW, while put OI decreased by 14.6%.

Dow Inc.: Global Expansion & Product Launches Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

Dow Inc. reported its Q4 2024 and full-year financial results under challenging macroeconomic conditions, highlighting both positive strides and ongoing challenges.
In Q4, Dow achieved its fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth despite a weak economic backdrop.
The company reported net sales of $10.4 billion, down 2% from the same period last year, reflecting pricing pressures across all operating segments.

International Paper: Can E-Commerce Growth Offset Pricing Pressures in Containerboard? – Major Drivers

International Paper’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided insights into the company’s current performance and future outlook.
Overall, the results were aligned with management’s expectations, while highlighting areas of achievement and challenges going forward.
In terms of business operations, the significant development is the closure of the DS Smith transaction, which positions International Paper as a leading entity in sustainable packaging solutions across North America and EMEA.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd, Alteogen Inc, Cardinal Health, Resmed Inc, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – LVC Increased Its Holding of Henlius Again
Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO Trading – Decent Anchor Demand but Subdued Overall Coverage
Alteogen (196170 KS): More ALT-B4 Licensing Deal to Follow; Fund Raise Wipes Off Uncertainty
Cardinal Health: Expanding Specialty Services To Change The Game! – Major Drivers
ResMed: How Sleep Apnea Awareness is Expanding Global Market Potential! – Major Drivers
Thermo Fisher Scientific: Will Its Shift Toward Contract Research and Manufacturing Pay Off? – Major Drivers

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – LVC Increased Its Holding of Henlius Again

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

LVC increased its holding of Henlius by 1,110,900 shares on January 23, reflecting its high recognition of the Company and optimism on its prospects, despite the biosimilar VBP headwinds.
Even with concerns, LVC still repeatedly invested in Henlius at a valuation far higher than its actual value, offering support with real money during pre-IPO stage.
Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was a deliberate decision. We are interested to see Lin’s next move. Lin should have a very clear understanding of the true value of Henlius.

Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO Trading – Decent Anchor Demand but Subdued Overall Coverage

By Akshat Shah

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Alteogen (196170 KS): More ALT-B4 Licensing Deal to Follow; Fund Raise Wipes Off Uncertainty

By Tina Banerjee

In November 2024, Alteogen Inc (196170 KS) entered into an exclusive license agreement with Daiichi Sankyo for an upfront payment of $20M (KRW28B).
With increasing number of players developing ADC drugs mainly targeting various cancers, we can expect more big-ticket licensing deals for ALT-B4, going ahead.
On February 4, Alteogen has raised ~KRW155B through redeemable convertible preference shares. Over the last few months, Alteogen shares had a roller coaster ride due to fund raising rumors.

Cardinal Health: Expanding Specialty Services To Change The Game! – Major Drivers

Cardinal Health, Inc.’s recent financial results offer a multifaceted view of the company’s current position and future potential in the healthcare industry.
The company showcased strong performance in certain areas while facing challenges in others, leading to a complex investment outlook.
A significant highlight from the results was the robust performance of the Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment.

ResMed: How Sleep Apnea Awareness is Expanding Global Market Potential! – Major Drivers

ResMed Inc.’s second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings presentation highlights several notable financial and operational results, alongside key strategic initiatives.
From a performance standpoint, the company reported a global revenue increase of 10%, reaching $1.28 billion.
This growth spanned ResMed’s key business sectors, including device sales, which rose by 11%, and masks and accessories, which grew by 11% as well.

Thermo Fisher Scientific: Will Its Shift Toward Contract Research and Manufacturing Pay Off? – Major Drivers

For the fourth quarter of 2024, Thermo Fisher Scientific reported a 5% year-over-year growth in revenue, reaching $11.4 billion, alongside a 7% increase in adjusted operating income, which totaled $2.72 billion.
This resulted in an adjusted operating margin expansion by 50 basis points to 23.9%.
Moreover, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew by 8% to $6.10.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Grab Holdings , IWG PLC, Northrop Grumman, United Parcel Service Cl B, Takara Standard, Daiichi Jitsugyo, Caterpillar Inc, Parker Hannifin, Roper Technologies, Alinco Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?
1 Main Capital’s Yaron Naymark on some general investor skepticism with $IWG.L thesis
Northrop Grumman: Does Its Role in National Security Really Shield It From Market Volatility? – Major Drivers
United Parcel Service (UPS): International Diversification to Capitalize On Emerging Trades! – Major Drivers
Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Caterpillar Inc.: An Insight Into Its Pricing Strategies & Market Conditions! – Major Drivers
Parker Hannifin: How the Meggitt Acquisition Reshapes Its Aerospace Business! – Major Drivers
Roper Technologies: How a Software-First Strategy is Reshaping Growth! – Major Drivers
Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

By Angus Mackintosh

Press reports suggest that a merger between GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability.
Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.
Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.

1 Main Capital’s Yaron Naymark on some general investor skepticism with $IWG.L thesis

By Yet Another Value Podcast

IWG is the largest co working flex office company in the world, with brands like Regus, Spaces, HQ signature and The Lights
The company has been profitable and has grown through a capital light strategy of managed and franchise models
The stock is currently undervalued, with potential for significant growth in earnings and free cash flow from the managed business in the upcoming years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Northrop Grumman: Does Its Role in National Security Really Shield It From Market Volatility? – Major Drivers

Northrop Grumman reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing both achievements and challenges.
The company ended the year with a record backlog of approximately $91.5 billion and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x, indicating strong demand in both domestic and international markets.
This demand is supported by new contract wins, such as the TACAMO program and the B-21’s second LRIP Lot, as well as ongoing programs like Poland’s IBCS system, which contributes to an international book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x.

United Parcel Service (UPS): International Diversification to Capitalize On Emerging Trades! – Major Drivers

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) delivered a mixed fourth-quarter 2024 performance, reflecting strategic operational adjustments and market challenges.
Highlighting a slight revenue growth with significant profit and margin expansion, UPS navigated the complexities of a shifting logistics landscape while undergoing significant operational transformations.
UPS reported a consolidated revenue increase of 1.5% year-over-year to $25.3 billion for Q4 2024.

Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY184.3bn (+2.7% YoY) and operating profit JPY12.9bn (+20.1% YoY), driven by strong new housing sales.
Cumulative Q3 revenue achieved 77.1% of FY03/25 forecast, with operating profit at 88.8% and net income at 93.3%.
New housing complex market revenue grew 12.0% YoY, while remodeling market revenue declined 5.2% YoY.

Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

In cumulative Q3 FY03/25, orders were JPY155.9bn (-0.7% YoY), revenue JPY160.8bn (+36.9% YoY), net income JPY7.3bn.
Revenue increased due to higher sales in plant equipment, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and molding machines, boosting operating profit.
Orders and revenue rose in automotive, medical device, and airline equipment sectors, leading to significant operating profit growth.

Caterpillar Inc.: An Insight Into Its Pricing Strategies & Market Conditions! – Major Drivers

Caterpillar Inc.’s performance for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2024 demonstrates a mixed set of outcomes, underscoring both the strengths and challenges faced by the company.
The diversified nature of its end markets and its sustained focus on long-term strategic goals have been pivotal in maintaining a relatively stable financial position despite a decrease in top-line results.
Positively, Caterpillar reported a record adjusted profit per share for the year at $21.90, a 3% increase over 2023, and achieved an adjusted operating profit margin of 20.7%.

Parker Hannifin: How the Meggitt Acquisition Reshapes Its Aerospace Business! – Major Drivers

Parker-Hannifin Corporation recently reported its fiscal 2025 second-quarter results, showcasing both commendable achievements and areas for improvement.
The company demonstrated strong operational excellence despite facing some top-line pressures and a slightly challenging market environment.
Notably, Parker-Hannifin achieved record second-quarter adjusted segment operating margins of 25.6%, marking a 110 basis point improvement year-over-year.

Roper Technologies: How a Software-First Strategy is Reshaping Growth! – Major Drivers

Roper Technologies delivered a strong financial performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2024, characterized by significant revenue and cash flow growth.
For the year, the company achieved a 14% revenue increase, driven by equal contributions from organic expansion and strategic acquisitions.
Roper demonstrated robust cash flow generation with a 16% year-over-year increase in free cash flow, reaching over $2 billion, while maintaining impressive free cash flow margins of 32%.

Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY47.2bn (+5.6% YoY), operating profit JPY2.0bn (+6.7% YoY), recurring profit JPY2.6bn (-5.5% YoY).
Revenue for construction materials was JPY19.1bn (+16.0% YoY), segment profit JPY1.9bn (-5.9% YoY) due to higher costs.
Revenue for low-power radios was JPY3.7bn (-7.2% YoY), segment loss JPY444mn due to lower sales and higher expenses.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Financials: Toc Co Ltd, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, Religare Enterprises, CSI Properties, Hana Financial, Marsh & Mclennan, Chesapeake Financial Shares In and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes
Samsung Life Insurance Is Considering on Incorporating Samsung F&M Insurance as a Subsidiary
The Religare Controversy: A Corporate Battle
Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Feb-2025): Gaw Capital raises $260M for HK’s CSI Properties.
Hana Financial: Share Buyback and Cancellation of 400 Billion Won + 50% Total Shareholder Return
Marsh McLennan: Can Insurance Pricing Cycles Sustain Growth in the Long Run? – Major Drivers
CPKF: Fourth Diluted Quarter EPS beats Our Estimate by a Dime

TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes

7 years ago I wrote a big piece titled TOC’s BIGLY Buyback Makes It a Takeout Target. I thought the shareholder structure and buyback plans looked like a creeping takeover.
In December 2017, Effissimo had sold a very large stake back to the company. I wrote in March 2018. 10mos later they did another and I wrote again.
Since then they’ve bought back a bit more. Today they are buying back another 5%. It still looks like a potential takeover.

Samsung Life Insurance Is Considering on Incorporating Samsung F&M Insurance as a Subsidiary

By Douglas Kim

After the market close on 4 February, several local news outlets reported that Samsung Life Insurance is considering on incorporating Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance as a subsidiary.
Share cancellation by Samsung F&M Insurance would lead to an increase in ownership stake of Samsung F&M Insurance by Samsung Life Insurance which would violate the current Insurance Business Act.
It is unlikely for Samsung Life Insurance to sell some of its stake in Samsung F&M Insurance, but Samsung Life Insurance could increase its stake in Samsung F&M Insurance.

The Religare Controversy: A Corporate Battle

By Nimish Maheshwari

Religare Enterprises (RELG IN)’s saga intensifies as CEO Rashmi Saluja sues her own company amid takeover bids by the Burman family, amid insider trading allegations.
The battle, initially a takeover bid, has evolved into an ED probe, halting shareholder meetings and raising serious governance concerns.
Everything lies in the hands of Religare’s shareholder since to gain the helm again Rashmi needs more than 50% votes in the upcoming meeting on 7-Feb.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Feb-2025): Gaw Capital raises $260M for HK’s CSI Properties.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Gaw Capital secures $260M investment for Hong Kong CSI Properties, demonstrating confidence in the real estate market.
CapitaLand Ascott Trust makes significant acquisition with purchase of 2 Japanese hotels worth $140M, expanding their portfolio.
Hines JV embarks on condo complex development on Delhi’s Birla Mills site, reflecting growing investment interest in India’s real estate sector.

Hana Financial: Share Buyback and Cancellation of 400 Billion Won + 50% Total Shareholder Return

By Douglas Kim

On 4 February, Hana Financial (086790 KS) announced a share buyback and cancellation of 400 billion won worth of treasury shares, representing 2.3% of its market cap.
Hana Financial plans to achieve a total shareholder return ratio of 50% by 2027. Its total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY.
Hana Financial’s total cash dividend per common share is 3,600 won in 2024 (up 5.9% YoY). Hana Financial’s total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY.

Marsh McLennan: Can Insurance Pricing Cycles Sustain Growth in the Long Run? – Major Drivers