Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Private Equity backed Karman Holdings filed a S-1 with the SEC for a potential February debut.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, they generated $254.0 million in revenue, representing a 24.7% growth rate from the same period in 2023.
Their integrated payload protection, propulsion, and interstage system solutions are deployed across a wide variety of existing and emerging programs supporting important Department of Defense and space sector initiatives.

Duplicate of CSX Corporation: A Hurricane-Hit Performance But Fundamentals Remain Strong! – Major Drivers

The CSX Corporation’s earnings reveal a complex landscape influenced by numerous external factors, while also showcasing internal resilience and growth initiatives.
For the fiscal year 2024, CSX faced a multitude of challenges, including adverse weather events like hurricanes, weaker commodity prices, and infrastructure disruptions, notably the collapse of the Francis Scott Bridge.
These external pressures led to fluctuations in financial performance, especially in specific segments like coal and intermodal transportation.

Fastenal Company: Expanding Onsite & Branch Sales Strategy To Up Their Game! – Major Drivers

Fastenal Company recently held its 2024 annual and fourth-quarter earnings call, providing insights into its financial and operational performance.
The company reported a modest fourth-quarter sales growth of 3.7% (2.1% on a daily sales rate), indicating a stabilization in sales amidst a challenging industrial economy.
Although sales grew slightly, the company did not meet its own expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) decreasing by 2% to $0.46.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December
But unsustainably strong US imports & potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling
We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT

Union Pacific Corporation: Its Efforts Towards Volume Growth & Market Resilience! – Major Drivers

Union Pacific Corporation’s latest earnings release for the fourth quarter of 2024 highlights a mixture of both positive and challenging aspects in the company’s financial performance and operational execution.
This nuanced overview can aid potential investors and stakeholders in forming a balanced investment thesis regarding the company.
For the positive aspects, Union Pacific demonstrated solid financial growth, with quarterly net income reaching $1.8 billion and earnings per share increasing by 7% to $2.91.

Alaska Air Group: International Expansion & Fleet Modernization As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

Alaska Air Group, Inc. reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, giving investors insight into its trajectory post-acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines.
The company finished 2024 with a GAAP net income of $71 million for the fourth quarter and $395 million for the full year.
When adjusted for special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, these numbers rose to $125 million for the quarter and $625 million annually.

3M Company: Will Innovation & Product Development Keep Its Stock Attractive For Long-Term Investors? – Major Drivers

The Fourth Quarter earnings call for 3M, held on January 21, 2025, highlighted the company’s strong financial performance despite ongoing challenges.
The quarter was marked by a 2.1% organic revenue growth with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.68.
3M generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow, maintaining a conversion rate of 145% and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Utilities: Global Water Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Global Water Resources, Inc. (GWRS)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Global Water Resources, Inc. (GWRS)

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.6%).
Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up 1.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.6% of the index) was up 2.6%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.9% of the index) was up 1.6%.
Top 10 Performers: WML, WWR, LTBR, SMR, MGPHF, BE, PSIX, GTEC, LOOP, WPRT

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Tsuruha Holdings, Guotai Junan Securities , Fast Retailing, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, Tokyo Metro, China National Building Material, Areit (AyalaLand REIT), Air China Ltd (H) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding
Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February
Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025
CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote
PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table

By Travis Lundy

In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK) and Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH) shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK).
There will be small buying in Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.
There will also be a stock added to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

By Travis Lundy

Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

By Arun George

The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts.
The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met.

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2025.

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down.

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

As forecast, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and China Banking (CBC PM) will replace Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) and Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.
The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally
Gov’t estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them
Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Iron Ore, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Shell , Schlumberger Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Gevo, Corcel Exploration and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Global Commodities: (Mis)Pricing of the risk
IFC’s US$I25 Million Boost To Tire Manufacturing In India, Pakistan
Iron Ore Weekly TA Review [2025/04]: Continued Bullishness Pre-CNY
U.S. Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week Amid Sharp Oil Rig Count Decline
Gujarat Fluro’s New Growth Lever: Battery Chemicals, Fluoropolymers and Aim for 4x EBITDA in 3 Years
[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update
How Schlumberger (SLB) Is Redefining Oilfield Services With Digital Innovation & Shareholder Rewards!
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Gevo, Inc.: WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap
Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Restarting intervention activities at Tobias field

Global Commodities: (Mis)Pricing of the risk

By At Any Rate

Strong gains in oil prices attributed to tightening sanctions against Russia and Iran by outgoing Biden administration
Market anticipating decline in Russian and Iranian oil exports, with potential disruptions and price increases
Russian oil exports showing resilience despite sanctions, with logistics and companies excluded from restrictions providing room for maneuvering

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

IFC’s US$I25 Million Boost To Tire Manufacturing In India, Pakistan

By Vinod Nedumudy

Greenfield tire production facility to come up in Sindh, Pakistan
JK Tyre to get US$100 million sustainability loan for expansion
Sustainability-linked loan a first in India’s tire industry

Iron Ore Weekly TA Review [2025/04]: Continued Bullishness Pre-CNY

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Mixed steel prices reflected short-term boosts from rising hot metal output and policy support, offset by lingering property sector woes, trade uncertainties, and structural market challenges.
IO prices consolidated and closed slightly above the 200-day DMA indicating the strengthening of the bullish trend. Bulls risk facing a consolidation or downward correction from these levels.
Managed Money, Physicals participants & Others are net short with 129.1k, 5.1k & 18.6k lots respectively across all F&O expiries. Managed Money decreased net shorts while FIIs decreased net longs.

U.S. Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week Amid Sharp Oil Rig Count Decline

By Suhas Reddy

The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the third consecutive week, falling by 4 to 576 for the week ending 24/Jan.
For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.477m bpd from 13.481m bpd the week prior.
The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 6 to 472, while gas rigs grew by 1 to 99. U.S. producers cut four rigs in Texas.

Gujarat Fluro’s New Growth Lever: Battery Chemicals, Fluoropolymers and Aim for 4x EBITDA in 3 Years

By Nimish Maheshwari

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) new Fluoropolymer(FP) segment is projected to be a key revenue growth driver for the company in the medium term.
The company is committed to significant capacity expansion in the FP segment and aims to commercialize new FP products, particularly EV battery chemicals, in the second half of fiscal 2025.
While the FP segment holds strong growth potential, the ramp-up of new-age FPs and the potential reliance on debt-funded capex are areas to monitor.

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

By Suhas Reddy

Shell set to report its Q4 earnings on 30/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
As of 27/Jan, Shell’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.65%, with an IV rank of 61.12% and an IV percentile of 80%.
Shell’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 60, 66, and 67, while puts dominate at 64 and 65.

How Schlumberger (SLB) Is Redefining Oilfield Services With Digital Innovation & Shareholder Rewards!

SLB’s latest financial performance highlights a mix of operational resilience and strategic initiatives aimed at driving shareholder value.
The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.92, beating analyst forecasts of $0.90.
Revenue rose 3% year over year to $9.28 billion, surpassing estimates by $100 million.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In the US, the S&P preliminary services PMI fell to 52.8 (56.5 e / 56.8 p), while the manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1 (49.8 e / 49.4 p).
The preliminary composite PMI declined to 52.4 (55.6 e / 55.4 p). Separately, the January (final) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 71.1 (74.0 p).
Treasuries climbed slightly, following the weaker than expected January preliminary PMI data.

Gevo, Inc.: WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap

By Water Tower Research

The podcast covered discussions on: (1) why the latest DC policy guidelines are a win for biofuel producers, farmers, the public and the environment, and a milestone for market-based ag conservation,
(2) the importance of homegrown US energy and the economic benefits to the rural economy,
(3) evidence of strong bipartisan support for biofuels and support for CCS by key figures in the Trump administration, (4) nearing close of the Red Trail acquisition and being on track with the DOE Loan, and (5) other updates.

Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Restarting intervention activities at Tobias field

By Auctus Advisors

Intervention activities will soon restart at the Tobias-13 and Tobias-14 wells on Block KON-11, aiming to re-establish production at the Tobias field.
Discovered in 1961, the Tobias field initially had an estimated 94 mmbbl of oil in place.
Twelve wells were drilled, with eight producers reaching peak production of 17.5 mbbl/d.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Financials: SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Hang Seng Index, Macrotech Developers, EURO/US DOLLAR, Nikkei 225, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, American International Group, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index
IFC’s US$I25 Million Boost To Tire Manufacturing In India, Pakistan
EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?
Macrotech Developers : Decoding Family Feud and Corporate Governance Overhang
Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist
EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 20-24): Seasonals Provide Tailwind
EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Stalled Rally, Flat Implied Vol
American Airlines’ Record-Breaking Revenue Falls Flat: What’s Behind the Stock Slump?
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Honing in on Transactions and CASA

Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

The KRX is going all-in, using data transparency to clean up the Value-Up Index, rebuild trust, and keep it in the spotlight.
This sharpens predictability for June’s rebalancing, enhances market transparency, and attracts foreign investors to GICS-based indices like the KOSPI 200.
This could transform index dynamics, boosting inflows, liquidity, and global interest, creating a potential alpha opportunity.

IFC’s US$I25 Million Boost To Tire Manufacturing In India, Pakistan

By Vinod Nedumudy

Greenfield tire production facility to come up in Sindh, Pakistan
JK Tyre to get US$100 million sustainability loan for expansion
Sustainability-linked loan a first in India’s tire industry

EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?

All three markets exhibited larger average returns in the 5 days leading up to Lunar New Years compared to out-of-sample data.
The pattern for the period after Lunar New Year does not show the same characteristics as prior to Lunar New Year.
The strongest returns were seen in FXI with average returns 10X out-of-sample average returns.

Macrotech Developers : Decoding Family Feud and Corporate Governance Overhang

By Nimish Maheshwari

The Lodha brothers, Abhishek and Abhinandan, are locked in a legal battle over the use of the “Lodha” brand, despite a 2017 family settlement agreement.
Macrotech Developer is seeking a perpetual injunction against HoABL to cease the use of the “Lodha” brand in any form and is demanding INR5,000 crore in damages.
The Bombay High Court on January 21 said that it would hear on January 27 the application filed by Abhishek Lodha-promoted Macrotech Developers Ltd

Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?

By At Any Rate

Basis reflects the US dollar scarcity premium, with a more negative basis indicating greater scarcity
Positive Euro US dollar basis is primarily driven by short-term tactical cross-border flows, not direct funding dynamics
Evolution of relative balance sheet dynamics between the Fed and ECB will be a dominant driver of the Euro US dollar basis going forward

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist

Nikkei back at the top of the price range rising 3.85%. Gains may be more limited from here without an assist from the currency.
Implied vols softened on the week from a combination of factors includes low realized volatility on the week.
Active trade in Put and Call strikes at the edge of the recent trading range.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 20-24): Seasonals Provide Tailwind

The lead up to Lunar New Year typically sees stronger than normal returns and last week was no exception with the strong rally continuing for both markets.
Price action was more volatile than has been seen lately pushing up short term historic volatility measures with 1M implieds +- 1point.
June 6000 Puts in HSCEI seeing continued trading interest at the June 27 expiry.

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Stalled Rally, Flat Implied Vol

Kospi200 has stalled out gaining only 50bps on the week after taking the gain on the month to 5.9%.
Implied vols have flat-lined with spot grinding out gains and historic vols bracketing implied.
We highlight the positive seasonality heading into Lunar New Year.

American Airlines’ Record-Breaking Revenue Falls Flat: What’s Behind the Stock Slump?

American Airlines has showcased strong performance metrics in recent quarters but is currently grappling with investor concerns over its first-quarter guidance.
For Q4 2024, the airline delivered record-breaking revenue of $13.7 billion, contributing to an annual revenue milestone of $54.2 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $0.84, exceeding expectations of $0.66.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Honing in on Transactions and CASA

By Angus Mackintosh

Bank Negara Indonesia came good in 4Q2024 with a strong finish to the year due to higher loan growth from corporates and consumers, alongside higher CASA growth cementing higher NIMs
The bank also saw improving asset quality, with falling loans-at-risk, and although there was an uptick in provisions in 4Q due to Sritex, the outlook for credit costs looks stable.
Bank Negara Indonesia will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book. Valuations remain attractive.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Fanuc Corp, Doosan Enerbility, Karman Holdings, Csx Corp, Fastenal Co, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Union Pacific, Alaska Air Group, 3M Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025
Fanuc (6594) | Robots in Reverse
Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power
Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Peeking at the Prospectus of Upcoming Space and Defense IPO
Duplicate of CSX Corporation: A Hurricane-Hit Performance But Fundamentals Remain Strong! – Major Drivers
Fastenal Company: Expanding Onsite & Branch Sales Strategy To Up Their Game! – Major Drivers
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)
Union Pacific Corporation: Its Efforts Towards Volume Growth & Market Resilience! – Major Drivers
Alaska Air Group: International Expansion & Fleet Modernization As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
3M Company: Will Innovation & Product Development Keep Its Stock Attractive For Long-Term Investors? – Major Drivers

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2025.

Fanuc (6594) | Robots in Reverse

By Mark Chadwick

Consolidated net sales slipped 0.4% to ¥197 billion, while operating income slipped 14.6%, hitting ¥34.9 billion
The yen’s Q3 weakness erased ¥11 billion in unrealised inventory profits, dragging reported operating profit below expectations
Recovery in order book is key positive. However, given the stock’s outperformance over the past 3 months, there is less upside.

Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power

By Douglas Kim

Doosan Skoda Power is getting ready to complete an IPO on the Prague Stock Exchange. The IPO is aiming to gather up to 2.53 billion crowns, or about US$105.5 million.
Post IPO, Doosan Power System plans to maintain a 67% ownership. Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) owns a 100% stake in Doosan Power Systems.
If Doosan Skoda Power is valued at 8.3 billion crowns and if we annualize the company’s net profit to 473 billion in 2024, this would suggest a P/E of 17.5x.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Peeking at the Prospectus of Upcoming Space and Defense IPO

Private Equity backed Karman Holdings filed a S-1 with the SEC for a potential February debut.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, they generated $254.0 million in revenue, representing a 24.7% growth rate from the same period in 2023.
Their integrated payload protection, propulsion, and interstage system solutions are deployed across a wide variety of existing and emerging programs supporting important Department of Defense and space sector initiatives.

Duplicate of CSX Corporation: A Hurricane-Hit Performance But Fundamentals Remain Strong! – Major Drivers

The CSX Corporation’s earnings reveal a complex landscape influenced by numerous external factors, while also showcasing internal resilience and growth initiatives.
For the fiscal year 2024, CSX faced a multitude of challenges, including adverse weather events like hurricanes, weaker commodity prices, and infrastructure disruptions, notably the collapse of the Francis Scott Bridge.
These external pressures led to fluctuations in financial performance, especially in specific segments like coal and intermodal transportation.

Fastenal Company: Expanding Onsite & Branch Sales Strategy To Up Their Game! – Major Drivers

Fastenal Company recently held its 2024 annual and fourth-quarter earnings call, providing insights into its financial and operational performance.
The company reported a modest fourth-quarter sales growth of 3.7% (2.1% on a daily sales rate), indicating a stabilization in sales amidst a challenging industrial economy.
Although sales grew slightly, the company did not meet its own expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) decreasing by 2% to $0.46.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December
But unsustainably strong US imports & potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling
We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT

Union Pacific Corporation: Its Efforts Towards Volume Growth & Market Resilience! – Major Drivers

Union Pacific Corporation’s latest earnings release for the fourth quarter of 2024 highlights a mixture of both positive and challenging aspects in the company’s financial performance and operational execution.
This nuanced overview can aid potential investors and stakeholders in forming a balanced investment thesis regarding the company.
For the positive aspects, Union Pacific demonstrated solid financial growth, with quarterly net income reaching $1.8 billion and earnings per share increasing by 7% to $2.91.

Alaska Air Group: International Expansion & Fleet Modernization As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

Alaska Air Group, Inc. reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, giving investors insight into its trajectory post-acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines.
The company finished 2024 with a GAAP net income of $71 million for the fourth quarter and $395 million for the full year.
When adjusted for special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, these numbers rose to $125 million for the quarter and $625 million annually.

3M Company: Will Innovation & Product Development Keep Its Stock Attractive For Long-Term Investors? – Major Drivers

The Fourth Quarter earnings call for 3M, held on January 21, 2025, highlighted the company’s strong financial performance despite ongoing challenges.
The quarter was marked by a 2.1% organic revenue growth with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.68.
3M generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow, maintaining a conversion rate of 145% and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Health Care: Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd, Maze Therapeutics, Aardvark Therapeutics, VISEN Pharmaceuticals, Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical, Molina Healthcare, Humana Inc, Metsera and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO: Profitable Business Expansion Amid Favorable Demand to Drive Growth
Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Biotech with Blockbuster Potential Sets Terms for IPO
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Peeking at the Prospectus of Another Obesity-Related IPO
Visen Pharmaceuticals IPO: Unfavorable Trends
Pre-IPO Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical – Valuation Performance May Disappoint Investors
Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024
Humana Inc (HUM) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024
Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Company Seeking up to $1.8b IPO Valuation

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO: Profitable Business Expansion Amid Favorable Demand to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is looking to raise ~$350M from its upcoming India IPO, which is a combination of fresh issue and OFS. The IPO price band is INR382–402.
The company intends to utilize INR1.95B out of the fresh issue proceeds to repay its debts, which stand at INR3.61B as of December 31, 2024.
The company’s proven capability to scale up the operation amid cut-throat competition and profitable business operation enhance our conviction on the long-term growth prospect of the company.

Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Biotech with Blockbuster Potential Sets Terms for IPO

The company has a potential blockbuster treatment for a certain type of chronic kidney disease affecting millions of Americans.
The company could raise up to $132.6m if priced at the high-end of the range which would value the company at $728m.
The sector vastly underperformed in the aftermarket and is looking to start 2025 on the right foot.

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Peeking at the Prospectus of Another Obesity-Related IPO

Biotech targeting treatment of obesity and obesity-related conditions, starting with rare hyperphagias filed for its IPO on January 23rd.
Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Cantor, RBC Capital are the bookrunners on this IPO.
Lead product, ARD-101 is an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain TAS2Rs expressed in the gut lumen for which they have initiated a Phase 3 clinical trial for hyperphagia.

Visen Pharmaceuticals IPO: Unfavorable Trends

Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
We look at the company’s core product and highlight two unfavorable trends.
We are not excited about the company’s fundamentals, and are not keen in the deal.

Pre-IPO Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical – Valuation Performance May Disappoint Investors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In other to attract and retain high-quality dentists, dental services providers need to pay higher salaries than public hospitals, which inevitably drives up manpower costs and drag down profit margin.
Regulatory pricing controls and centralized procurement policies on dental implants and orthodontic materials will affect the pricing of Dazhong’s dental services, thus put pressure on its future revenue growth.
The future valuation performance largely depends on if Dazhong is able to expand out of Central China and achieve nationwide coverage. However, so far, no successful cases have emerged.

Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

Molina offers Managed Medicaid services to low-income individuals on behalf of state governments, receiving a fixed fee per member in exchange for assuming medical risk, managing provider networks, and administering the program
The company operates in a competitive landscape with few key players in the Managed Medicaid market, giving them an advantage when states put their programs out to bid
Molina’s successful business model effectively manages Medicaid programs while minimizing risk for state administrators

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Humana Inc (HUM) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

Humana provides Medicare Advantage plans to around 6 million members, offering government health insurance for seniors through private insurers
Medicare Advantage plans limit provider networks, treatments, and incentivize cost-saving behavior to provide efficient and high-quality care
MA aims to promote value-based care relationships with providers, focus on preventative treatment, and pay for outcomes rather than volume of services provided.

Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Company Seeking up to $1.8b IPO Valuation

Metsera, Inc. is developing next-generation injectable and oral NuSH analog peptides for obesity treatment.
ARCH Venture Partners, Google Ventures and Softbank’s Vision Fund are all existing investors in this IPO.
The company is seeking an IPO valuation nearing $2bn for the company with a Phase III product candidate.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Tencent, Japan Business Systems , Texas Instruments, Allfunds Group, Hexaware Technologies, Startia Holdings, ParkerVision and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation
How Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Is Betting Big on AI & Winning The Global Chip Race!
Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – Aiming to Be Japan’s No.1 Cloud Integrator
Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
Allfunds Group (ALLFG) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024
Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO- Decent Long-Term Track Record, Although a Large Overhang to Watch For
Startia Holdings (3393 JP) – Cheerleading Company for the Digital Shift of SMEs in Japan
Parkervision Inc (PRKR) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

By Nico Rosti

News that DeepSeek’s latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI’s ChatGPT in most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today.
DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let’s see where support for reversal rallies can be found.

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

By Nicolas Baratte

This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting > 10% weekly gains.
Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising.

How Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Is Betting Big on AI & Winning The Global Chip Race!

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) closed 2024 on a high note, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips and its cutting-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technology nodes.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported a record fourth-quarter net profit of NT$374.68 billion (US$11.37 billion), marking a 57% year-over-year increase, alongside a 39% revenue jump to NT$868.46 billion.
The company’s gross margin rose to 59%, supported by high demand for advanced nodes despite challenges like ramp-up costs for its overseas facilities in the U.S. and Japan.

Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – Aiming to Be Japan’s No.1 Cloud Integrator

By Sessa Investment Research

In the Company’s stated goal aiming to become the No.1 cloud integrator in Japan, the importance of its close relationship with Microsoft cannot be overstated.
JBS became certified as a Microsoft Partner in 1995, and it was awarded Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for the first time in 2007.
JBS has been recognized as Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for 12 consecutive years from 2013 – 2024, reflecting its business strategy to focus on cloud migration/integration during that period.

Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company.
The financial results indicate both challenges and opportunities for investors to consider.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Texas Instruments reported revenue of $4 billion, which marks a 3% sequential decrease and a 2% decline from the previous year.

Allfunds Group (ALLFG) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

Allfunds is a European B2B fund platform founded in 2000 by CEO Juan Alcaraz, with strong organic revenue growth and EBITDA margins
Despite facing challenges in the public markets, the company is poised to return to its historical growth trajectory
With a client retention rate of 99.8% and significant market share, ALLFG offers a compelling growth opportunity yet to be fully reflected in its valuation

Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO- Decent Long-Term Track Record, Although a Large Overhang to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Startia Holdings (3393 JP) – Cheerleading Company for the Digital Shift of SMEs in Japan

By Sessa Investment Research

Startia Holdings, Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is a corporate group providing IT solutions mainly to SMEs.
Its core businesses consist of its IT infrastructure segment and its digital marketing segment which provides the Cloud CIRCUS digital marketing tool as a SaaS offering.
The IT infrastructure segment promotes “defensive DX” providing one-stop solutions and DX to IT-related issues for customer companies through merchandises such as office automation equipment and network services, while the digital marketing segment promotes “offensive DX” with the aim of helping them acquire new customers and expand sales. By conducting

Parkervision Inc (PRKR) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

ParkerVision (PRKR) is seen as a potentially mispriced option with a significant investment opportunity
The company’s patent infringement case against Qualcomm (QCOM) could result in a value of $8+ per share, which is 9 times the current price of $0.90
The case, estimated to be worth $2.6 billion, is expected to go to trial in the first half of 2025, with favorable odds for a positive outcome justifying a small position in PRKR

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, Lifestyle China, Zomato, Alibaba Group Holding , Dada Nexus , Cosco Capital, Smithfield Foods, Aptiv PLC, WH Group, BCL Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February
India Food Delivery | Old Habits Die Easy
China Consumption Weekly (27 Jan 2025): Alibaba, JD.com, Kuaishou, NIO, Honor, Apple
Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS
Asian Dividend Gems: Cosco Capital
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO
Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)
WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction
The Beat Ideas: BCL Industries, An Ethanol Play

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

By Travis Lundy

Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February

By Arun George

Lifestyle China (2136 HK)’s IFA opines that Mr Thomas Lau’s HK$0.98 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 20 February.
The IFA analysis is flawed. The revised and final offer is light compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk, mainly as retail seems firmly against the offer. The 14.0% gross spread is high but justified.

India Food Delivery | Old Habits Die Easy

By Pranav Bhavsar

Gen Z consumers prioritize price over brand loyalty, affecting restaurateurs’ pricing strategies.
Increasing platform dominance and discounting culture hinder profitability for restaurants in the competitive food delivery landscape.
Food delivery companies are pivoting from mere consumer tech-enabled logistics businesses to data-driven market-dominant behemoths.

China Consumption Weekly (27 Jan 2025): Alibaba, JD.com, Kuaishou, NIO, Honor, Apple

By Ming Lu

Consumers accused that Alibaba and JD.com took national consumption subsidies.
Kuaishou’s new year sales GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 71%.
Honor Smartphone CEO resigned largely due to the IPO plan.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

By Arun George

Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges.
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal.

Asian Dividend Gems: Cosco Capital

By Douglas Kim

Cosco Holdings’ stakes in Puregold Price Club and The Keepers Holding is worth US$1.1 billion, which is 176% higher than Cosco’s current market cap.
Cosco Capital’s dividend yield and dividend payout have been increasing nicely in the past several years from 1.5% in 2021 to 3% in 2022 and 8.8% in 2023.
We found Cosco Capital using Smartkarma’s Smartscore Screener. We used three criteria including market cap, dividend score of 4 or more, and total SmartScore of 4 or more.

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO

Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price.
Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time

Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)

By Richard Howe

Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business.
The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.

WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

By David Blennerhassett

On the 21st January 2025, WH Group (288 HK), the world’s largest pork producer, announced Smithfield had made a public filing of the “Preliminary Prospectus” with the SEC.
A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value.
Reportedly, WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.

The Beat Ideas: BCL Industries, An Ethanol Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

BCL Industries (BCLIL IN) is pivoting from volatile edible oils to a robust grain-based ethanol portfolio, leveraging its local sourcing advantage for upcoming capacity expansions.
Government incentives and rising domestic demand are fueling higher margins, making BCL’s dedicated distilleries and fungible capacities key drivers in India’s booming ethanol sector.
Its reliable execution, targeted capacity expansions, and pivot away from low-margin oils emphasize BCL’s potential as a high-growth, stable margin player in a rapidly evolving industry.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 27

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 24th): PTT Global Chemical and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 24th): PTT Global Chemical, WHA, CP AXTRA NVDR
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): TSMC, UMC

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 24th): PTT Global Chemical, WHA, CP AXTRA NVDR

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 24th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT Global Chemical, WHA, CP AXTRA NVDR.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jan 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD491.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD743mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): TSMC, UMC