Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation.
The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings.

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks

2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful.
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t.
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame

Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from MBK Partners at JPY11,751, a 4.8% premium to last close and a 6.8% premium to Nidec’s withdrawn JPY11,000 offer.
The offer is broadly in line with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The tender offer is expected to commence in early December.
Despite the offer resulting from an auction, there remains a medium probability that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) or a spurned white knight bidder (Candidate A) emerges with a higher offer.

Primo Global Holdings: A Bridal Business with Long Presence, Short on Performance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Primo Global (367A JP) will debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Standard Market on June 24, offering 6.5m shares, with pricing set after the June 9–13 book-building period.
Despite decades in operation, Primo has shown slow domestic growth and limited international traction, raising doubts about its ability to scale meaningfully in the bridal jewelry market.
With net debt at 50% of assets and over half its balance sheet in goodwill and intangibles, Primo faces material financial risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

Digital Hearts Holdings (3676 JP) – Poised to Enjoy Higher Profitability

Q4 FY3/25 results showed OP margin improvement YoY (Q4 FY3/24 6.1%, Q4 FY3/25 6.3%) as both DH Group (formerly Entertainment) and AGEST Group (formerly Enterprise) improved margins, although consolidated OP saw a small decline (-4.1% YoY).
DH Group’s segment OP declined (-9.9% YoY), but the segment OP margin improved (Q4 FY3/24 7.1%, Q4 FY3/25 7.3%), reflecting the sale of a low-margin subsidiary.
AGEST Group’s segment OP increased (+8.4% YoY) with the improved segment OP margin (Q4 FY3/24 4.5%, Q4 FY3/25 5.1%) on the back of better profitability in overseas QA Solutions than Q4 FY3/24.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – Q1 Follow-Up – June 3, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last year.
Key advances included: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house H-1337 PIIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug”)
2) commenced jointly developed Japan PII clinical trials of regenerative medicine cell therapy DWR-2206 with ActualEyes, and successfully completing all transplants

Wacom (6727 JP) – New Foundations Laid for Growth, Now for Execution

FY3/25 results were in line with revised guidance (issued April 23, 2025), with stable performance in the Technology Solutions Business, and narrowing losses YoY at the Branded Business.
After completing business transformation efforts, the newly unveiled ‘Wacom Chapter 4’ medium-term plan covering FY3/26 to FY3/29 presents positive developments with a more defined roadmap of future earnings drivers, and outlines a gradual growth trajectory as the business diversifies into new market domains and use-cases.
For capital allocation, planned investments in new business initiatives suggest that Wacom is considering the balance between shareholder returns and sustainable, long-term growth.

GEO HOLDINGS (2681 JP) – FY3/25 Earnings Miss Forecasts

Q1-4 FY3/25 sales and operating profit missed forecasts, as new store openings fell behind schedule, while personnel costs and merchant fees for cashless payments rose more than expected.
Sales fell -1.4% YoY while OP dropped -33.1% YoY. On the plus side, sales of used Smartphones & Tablets accelerated sharply, while annual gross profit and GPM improved.
Costs are expected to weigh on earnings again in FY3/26, as the company continues to execute its global expansion strategy.

Koukandekirukun (7695 JP) – Operating Profit Falls on Higher Costs

Q1-4 FY3/25 +36.1% YoY sales outperformed. However, although operating profit beat revised guidance, it fell 50.3% YoY, a stark contrast to the company’s initial forecast for an increase of +0.6% YoY.
This was due to higher-than- expected costs related to M&A, internal transactions with a new subsidiary and investments to reaccelerate order growth.
The company is forecasting FY3/26 sales growth to slow to +18.5% YoY, as it faces difficult comps from the previous year’s acquisition boost.

LaKeel (4074 JP) – At a Positive Inflection Point

Q1 FY12/25 results were a positive surprise with OP growth of 45.5% YoY, primarily driven by LaKeel HR license sales, a stark contrast to FY12/24 results, which saw the company experience margin decline YoY and limited earnings visibility.
With evidence indicating that the company’s technology is gaining market penetration, we believe the company is embarking on a growth trajectory.
Despite the strong start and high run-rate, FY12/25 guidance has been left unchanged.

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Jun 04

Most Read: Yang Ming Marine Transport, Pasona Group, Toyota Industries, BYD, Nexchip Semiconductor , Bluefocus Communication Group Co, Ltd., New World Development, Makino Milling Machine Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebal Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$9bn Trade
[Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) – Three New Things Of Mixed Importance
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder
[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Impact
ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebal Preview: Methodology Change Leads to US$9bn Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 363bn (US$12.1bn).
Following a change in methodology, there could be 16 adds and 6 deletes in June with an estimated one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn.
We expect the adds to outperform the deletes over the next few days, following which reversion could set in.

[Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) – Three New Things Of Mixed Importance

Pasona Group (2168 JP) is a “value stock.” It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback.
Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder.
This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation.
The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings.

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks

2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful.
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t.
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Impact

There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 2.7x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) and sell 1.5x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH).
The delete has outperformed the inclusion this year. With 8 days left to implementation of the changes and decent impact, there could be a short-term reversal.

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).

NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust

By David Blennerhassett

0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame

Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from MBK Partners at JPY11,751, a 4.8% premium to last close and a 6.8% premium to Nidec’s withdrawn JPY11,000 offer.
The offer is broadly in line with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The tender offer is expected to commence in early December.
Despite the offer resulting from an auction, there remains a medium probability that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) or a spurned white knight bidder (Candidate A) emerges with a higher offer.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down
HSCEI Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, ICBC, China Life, CCB, Meituan, Smic, Beigene
CSI 300 Earning Revision Analysis (May): Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile.

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, ICBC, China Life, CCB, Meituan, Smic, Beigene

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Xiaomi, ICBC, China Life, CCB, Meituan, Smic, Beigene.

CSI 300 Earning Revision Analysis (May): Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway, Trina Solar, Xinjiang Daqo, TCL Zhonghuan, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief ECM: Primo Global Pre-IPO: Driven by Domestic Demand as International Ops Falter and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Primo Global Pre-IPO: Driven by Domestic Demand as International Ops Falter
Omada Health (OMDA): Virtual Healthcare Provider Gains IPO Momentum Behind Success of Peer
Kitazato Pre-IPO – Past Sales Have Been Steady but Slowing
Pre IPO Eastroc Beverage Group (H Share) – The Strength, the Concerns and the Outlook
Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Valuation Cut in Half, Major VC Players Backing FinTech IPO
Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG): Space Race Continues, Terms Set for Defense IPO

Primo Global Pre-IPO: Driven by Domestic Demand as International Ops Falter

By Nicholas Tan

Primo Global (367A JP) is looking to raise at least US$104m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
Primo Global specializes in merchandising bridal jewellery, namely engagement rings and wedding rings.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Omada Health (OMDA): Virtual Healthcare Provider Gains IPO Momentum Behind Success of Peer

By IPO Boutique

The valuation of the company based on Q1 2025 revenues is between 5-6x sales which we find attractive versus peers.
Revenue increased by 57% from $35.1 million to $55.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2025, respectively.
After a handful of days of marketing the IPO, we are hearing from our sources that the books are multiple-times oversubscribed.

Kitazato Pre-IPO – Past Sales Have Been Steady but Slowing

By Sumeet Singh

Kitazato (368A JP) manufactures and sells medical devices and products for fertility treatment. It aims to raise around US$120m in its Japan IPO.
Kitazato specializes in artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, cell cryopreservation and reproductive engineering technologies in regenerative medicine.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Pre IPO Eastroc Beverage Group (H Share) – The Strength, the Concerns and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 is a milestone year. The weighted average ROE set a new high. Due to cost dilution brought by economies of scale, net profit growth was higher than revenue growth.
The risk of relying on a single category hasn’t been eliminated. Traditional advantages of offline channels are becoming saturated. There is a gap between channel structure and new consumer forces
Eastroc’s valuation is expected to be higher than the industry average and peers due to its higher growth rate, but investors needs to consider the H/A premium

Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Valuation Cut in Half, Major VC Players Backing FinTech IPO

By IPO Boutique

The company helps everyday people make progress in their financial lives and will be offering 32 million shares at a $24-$26 range equating to a $8.8b-$9.5b valuation.
The deal is anticipated to price on Tuesday (6/10) for a Wednesday (6/11) debut on the Nasdaq.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025 the company earned $518.7m in revenue marking a year-over-year increase of 32.3% from the prior year ($391.9m).

Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG): Space Race Continues, Terms Set for Defense IPO

By IPO Boutique

Voyager Technologies will be offering 11 million shares at a $26-$29 range equating to a $1.4b-$1.65b valuation.
The deal is anticipated to price on Tuesday (6/10) for a Wednesday (6/11) debut on the Nasdaq.
Janus Henderson Investors and Wellington Management have indicated an interest in purchasing up to an aggregate of $60 million in shares of Class A common stock.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief Private Markets: Initial Thoughts on the Karrot (Danggeun) IPO (Largest Used Goods E-Commerce Platform in Korea) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

Initial Thoughts on the Karrot (Danggeun) IPO (Largest Used Goods E-Commerce Platform in Korea)

Initial Thoughts on the Karrot (Danggeun) IPO (Largest Used Goods E-Commerce Platform in Korea)

By Douglas Kim

Danggeun (Karrot) is the largest used goods e-commerce marketplace in Korea. There have been some local reports that the company could complete its IPO as early as 2025.
In the private market, some shares of Karrot were put up for sale recently, and the valuation of the company ranged 2.5 trillion won 2.7 trillion won.
The company has tremendously scaled up its business in the past couple of years, in terms of sales and profits.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief Australia: Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd, Amaero International Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Brickworks (BKW AU)/Soul Patts (SOL AU): An Attractive Merger to Unwind the Cross-Shareholding
Amaero International Ltd – New EBITDA guidance in-line with RaaS forecasts

Brickworks (BKW AU)/Soul Patts (SOL AU): An Attractive Merger to Unwind the Cross-Shareholding

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) entered a combination deed with Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). A newly-capitalised ASX-listed company (TopCo) will merge Brickworks and Soul Patts.
The scheme vote is low risk as both Brickworks and Soul Patts shareholders will support the merger, which provides an elegant solution to unwind the cross-shareholdings.
Investor support for the transaction seems strong, as evidenced by the A$550 million commitments for TopCo at a stingy NIL discount to the SOL last close price.

Amaero International Ltd – New EBITDA guidance in-line with RaaS forecasts

Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
In an ASX release on May 28, the company pushed out its guidance for when it will be EBITDA positive from FY26 to FY27, citing that the extended Continuing Resolution (CR) for the FY25 Congressional US budget and the Department of Defense programmes had contributed to the delay in revenue and new contracts.
The CR has paused “new starts” and “re-starts”, delaying expenditure.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Brush Off Tariff Turmoil and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Markets Brush Off Tariff Turmoil
Japan Morning Connection: Markets Rising from Morning Lows on Expectations for a Trump-Xi Call
Monday Delight: 02/06/25
US Banks – Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics
#155 India Insights: Quess Restructures, India-US Eye Trade Deal, VST Enters Electric Farm Tech
#156 India Insight: India’s Exports to Hit $1T in FY26, EV Production Setback, HDB Financial’s IPO

Ohayo Japan | Markets Brush Off Tariff Turmoil

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks closed higher Monday despite rising trade tensions with China and the EU.
ISM data showed US manufacturing activity contracted in May, with imports at their lowest since 2009
Metaplanet has acquired an additional 1,088 BTC for 17 billion yen, bringing its total holdings to 8,888 BTC

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Rising from Morning Lows on Expectations for a Trump-Xi Call

By Andrew Jackson

Applied Digital landing a big data center order from CoreWeave lifting AI related plays setting upbeat tone for SPE.
Big Chinese SiC capacity coming online further adding to the price pressures for Rohm.
Square Enix cancelling its ‘Project Gemini’ with Polish developer another foreign flop reminiscent of Avengers?

Monday Delight: 02/06/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

This is your Monday morning dose of inspiration. Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention.
These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research.

US Banks – Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

By Daniel Tabbush

Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI’s
Loans to other FI’s is up 21% YoY and C&I lending, reached a new high since early FY24

#155 India Insights: Quess Restructures, India-US Eye Trade Deal, VST Enters Electric Farm Tech

Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN)‘s restructuring into three entities aims for targeted growth, disciplined capital allocation, and international expansion in emerging sectors.
India and the US are negotiating an interim trade deal by June 25, aiming for tariff exemptions and increased trade.
VST Tillers Tractors (VSTT IN) to launch fully electric power tiller and weeder, expanding into the electric farm machinery sector.

#156 India Insight: India’s Exports to Hit $1T in FY26, EV Production Setback, HDB Financial’s IPO

India’s exports are set to surpass $1 trillion by FY26, driven by trade diversification, FTAs, and robust sector growth.
Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) warns of rare earth magnet shortage impacting India’s EV production by July, urging quick approval for imports.
HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is close to SEBI approval for a $1.5 bn IPO, set to become India’s largest shadow bank listing.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through
[Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) – Three New Things Of Mixed Importance
HD Hyundai: Will It Increase Ownership Stake In HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering?
Brickworks (BKW AU)/Soul Patts (SOL AU): An Attractive Merger to Unwind the Cross-Shareholding
PBR 0.8x Law — What Is It, and Why Might It Spark a Classic Post-Election Korea Momentum Trade?
Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics
An Update on Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-Yong and His Family Members’ Inheritance Taxes
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report
Weekly Update (FTV, NLOP, STRZ, RAL)
Naturgy’s Share Repurchase: Potential €200+ Gain with Spanish Odd-Lot Tender Offer Priority Rule

ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through

By David Blennerhassett

Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to ESR (1821 HK)‘s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
This is the same register discussed in Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM and L’Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When
It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register.

[Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) – Three New Things Of Mixed Importance

Pasona Group (2168 JP) is a “value stock.” It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback.
Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder.
This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical.

HD Hyundai: Will It Increase Ownership Stake In HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering?

By Douglas Kim

There has been an increasing speculation of HD Hyundai increasing its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) in 2025.
There are two main reasons why HD Hyundai could increase its stake in HD KSOE.
They include HD KSOE contributing higher percentage of dividend income and continued full-fledged recovery of the operating profits of the HD HHI and HD Hyundai Mipo.

Brickworks (BKW AU)/Soul Patts (SOL AU): An Attractive Merger to Unwind the Cross-Shareholding

By Special Situation Investments

Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) entered a combination deed with Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). A newly-capitalised ASX-listed company (TopCo) will merge Brickworks and Soul Patts.
The scheme vote is low risk as both Brickworks and Soul Patts shareholders will support the merger, which provides an elegant solution to unwind the cross-shareholdings.
Investor support for the transaction seems strong, as evidenced by the A$550 million commitments for TopCo at a stingy NIL discount to the SOL last close price.

PBR 0.8x Law — What Is It, and Why Might It Spark a Classic Post-Election Korea Momentum Trade?

By Sanghyun Park

Listed companies trading below 0.8x P/B may be taxed like unlisted ones—based on book value, with a floor set at 80% of NAV regardless of calculated valuation.
Momentum is spreading beyond holdcos, with local desks eyeing low-PBR, high treasury share names. Attached is an Excel with Q1 PBRs and Q4 treasury ratios for all listed stocks.
We could target direct succession names like SK Inc. or go broader, screening by treasury share % and P/B discount—likely the preferred route given Korea’s post-election momentum playbook.

Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics

Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with KKR and PHP, both having made acquisition offers.
KKR’s offer is 49.4p/share, while PHP’s revised offer is 0.3769 PHP shares plus 12.5p/share in cash.
Glazer increased its stake in Assura to 2.9%, indicating expectations of a bidding war with minimal downside.

An Update on Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-Yong and His Family Members’ Inheritance Taxes

By Douglas Kim

This insight provides an update on the inheritance tax payment requirement by the Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-Yong and his family members.
Lee Jae-Yong has a final installment of 480 billion won in inheritance taxes to be paid in April 2026.
Once Lee makes the final inheritance tax payment next year, he can start to reinvest his dividend income in various Samsung Group affiliates including Samsung C&T.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting.
Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%);
Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%). What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

Weekly Update (FTV, NLOP, STRZ, RAL)

By Richard Howe

Fortive (FTV) will spin off 100% of Ralliant on June 28, 2025.
Ralliant will trade under the ticker RAL. When issued trading will begin on June 25th. Ralliant will host an investor day on June 10, 2025.
Ralliant (Precision Technologies) will be a $2.2B revenue company (2024) focused on Test & Measurement and Sensors & Safety Systems.

Naturgy’s Share Repurchase: Potential €200+ Gain with Spanish Odd-Lot Tender Offer Priority Rule

By Special Situation Investments

Naturgy’s tender offer allows repurchase of 9% shares at €26.5/share, with a priority for small accounts.
Spanish regulators approved the tender; odd-lot priority rule may set threshold around 400 shares for priority.
Linear distribution allocates 25% of shares equally; excess distributed proportionally, affecting shareholder participation outcomes.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief Thailand: Thanachart Capital and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Final Expectations; 3 Changes Expected + Delta Capping

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Final Expectations; 3 Changes Expected + Delta Capping

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we present our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for the index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect three ADDs and three DELs for June 2025.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 03

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Grab Holdings’ Fintech Gamble: Will Its Banking Bet Finally Pay Off by 2026? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Grab Holdings’ Fintech Gamble: Will Its Banking Bet Finally Pay Off by 2026?
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek’s New Chip Could Outperform Apple’s; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo
Welspun Living: Navigating with Strategic Diversification and Domestic Focus
Ecolab’s AI Mousetraps Are Just the Beginning—Is This the Future of Pest Control?
Triveni Engineering & Industries: Mega Restructuring & Stellar Performance
The Beat Ideas: Finolex Industries Ltd ~ Vertically Integrated PVC Manufacturer
Vesuvius India Ltd (NSE: VESUVIUS) – A High-Quality Play on India’s Steel Upswing
Kobo Resources Inc – Mining Monthly: May Edition
2025 Sees Strong Start to Share Buybacks
NATCO Pharma Limited: Record Year Performance Overshadowed by Cautious FY26 Outlook

Grab Holdings’ Fintech Gamble: Will Its Banking Bet Finally Pay Off by 2026?

By Baptista Research

The recent earnings of Grab Holdings Limited for the first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed picture of the company’s performance and strategic outlook.
On the positive side, Grab reported robust growth, with a 17% year-over-year increase in on-demand Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and a record number of monthly transacting users.
This growth translated into another quarter of record revenues.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek’s New Chip Could Outperform Apple’s; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Rumors That Mediatek’s Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple’s Chips Used in the iPhone 17
Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

Welspun Living: Navigating with Strategic Diversification and Domestic Focus

FY25 consolidated revenue surpassed INR 10,000 crore mark, increasing 8.9% year-on-year. Emerging businesses contributed over 30% to revenue.
Despite achieving the revenue milestone, Q4 performance and FY25 margins were impacted by cautious customer order patterns due to US tariff uncertainty.
The company is de-risking its geographical exposure by reducing reliance on the US while focusing on the potential from the UK FTA and strengthening its domestic presence, through strategic acquisition.

Ecolab’s AI Mousetraps Are Just the Beginning—Is This the Future of Pest Control?

By Baptista Research

In reviewing Ecolab’s first-quarter 2025 financial performance, the company demonstrated notable strengths alongside areas presenting challenges.
Ecolab reported double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth, achieving a 12% increase, even as organic sales climbed by 3%.
This robust performance highlights the company’s ability to maintain an upward trajectory despite a weakening demand in some end markets.

Triveni Engineering & Industries: Mega Restructuring & Stellar Performance

Triveni reported record revenue and PAT for Q4 FY25, largely driven by the exceptional performance of the Power Transmission business and improved sugar realisations despite operational challenges
The strong performance of the Power Transmission segment and strategic focus on exports highlights its potential as a key growth driver, while the proposed restructuring aims to unlock values.
Company is guiding for improvement in each segment including Sugar, IMIL and transmission in the upcoming year.

The Beat Ideas: Finolex Industries Ltd ~ Vertically Integrated PVC Manufacturer

Finolex Industries (FNXP IN) is a leading, vertically integrated Indian PVC manufacturer, the 2nd largest in PVC resin and 3rd in pipes & fittings, with captive production offering cost advantage.
Margin recovery in FY26 is targeted post headwinds faced by industry via pricing correction, improved product mix, enhanced discount management, and cost efficiency programs.
Potential ADD/BIS mandates mid-FY26 may curb Chinese imports, possibly enabling a 5–10% domestic price increase, reshaping the market.

Vesuvius India Ltd (NSE: VESUVIUS) – A High-Quality Play on India’s Steel Upswing

By Rahul Jain

Vesuvius India has a strong track record of double-digit revenue and profit growth, supported by robust return ratios like 32% ROCE and a debt-free balance sheet.
With ongoing capacity expansions and rising contribution to the parent’s revenue and EBITDA, India is now a key growth engine for the group.
Despite premium valuations, the company’s execution strength and industry tailwinds make it a compelling long-term play.

Kobo Resources Inc – Mining Monthly: May Edition

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market continued its strong run in May, driven by inflationary concerns due to the trade war and geopolitical tensions.
• In May, gold was up 1.8%, silver was up 1.7%, and copper was also up 1.7%.
The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 3.3%, GDXJ up 6.4%, SIL up 5.9%, and COPX up 8.7%.

2025 Sees Strong Start to Share Buybacks

By Geoff Howie

In the first five months of 2025, 63 primary-listed companies conducted S$930 million in share buybacks, up 84% from 2024.
UOB led May buybacks with S$144 million, followed by DBS at S$18 million and Olam Group at S$6 million.
STI Banks accounted for 77% of 2025 buybacks, with DBS, UOB, and OCBC launching significant buyback programs.

NATCO Pharma Limited: Record Year Performance Overshadowed by Cautious FY26 Outlook