Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

By Travis Lundy

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

COLI (688 HK): The Best Beta Play for China

By Jacob Cheng

COLI, being a SOE residential developer, has no bankruptcy risk. Under the current downturn, it is gaining market share and evolving into a stronger market leader
It recently issued onshore bond at historical low coupon 1.80% (5-year) and 2.37% (10-year), which is even lower than China’s LPR. This is very significant
Valuation is almost all time low, and downside is limited. We think it is the perfect beta play for China

HKBN (1310 HK): CA Approval (All But) Done. NDRC & MoC Still Outstanding

By David Blennerhassett

Six months and counting; yet China Mobile (941 HK) continues to (slowly, but surely) chip away at various pre-conditions.
In its monthly update, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) said Mobile has proposed commitments to Hong Kong’s Communication Authority, and that the commitments are sufficient to effectively address the CA’s concerns.
The CA is seeking industry feedback by the 13th June, but a favourable conclusion appears a lock. Elsewhere, no update on I-Squared’s proposal.

Weak Spending over China’s Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

By Daniel Hellberg

China’s Ministry of Tourism & Culture reported mediocre holiday travel & spending activity
Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period
Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook

Xtalpi US$860m IPO Lockup Expiry – Last of the Lockup Release with Nearly All Shares in CCASS Now

XtalPi Holdings (2228 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 13th Jun 2024 after raising US$126m. Its one-year lockup will expire soon.
QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

US Treasury yields rose by 9-13 bps across the curve on Friday, as a stronger than projected nonfarm payrolls report drove down market expectations for Fed easing.
The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST increased 11 bps each to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively.
Equities rallied, as the robust jobs report allayed concerns over an imminent economic slowdown. The S&P 500 rose 1.0% to 6,000, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.2% to 19,530.

Pre-IPO Medtide (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The sales growth of GLP-1s has entered a turning point. The actual market size of GLP-1s could be much lower-than-expected, which would affected the growth outlook of peptide CXOs.
Medtide is not strong as expected in the peptide CXOs industry. There’s a “hidden problem” in terms of the market share ranking. We updated our forecast for the next three years.
Considering geopolitical conflicts/intense competition, it’s difficult for Medtide to secure orders from industry leaders when the Company lacks competitiveness and are small in scale. Valuation should be lower than peers.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

Treasury yields climbed yesterday, led by the front and belly tenors, in line with similar price action in Europe after ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank could pause rate cuts in the summer.
The UST curve bear-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 5 bps to 3.92% and the yield on the 10Y UST up 4 bps at 4.39%.
US equities retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday in a call that lasted c. 1.5 hours.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 10

Daily Brief Japan: With Us Corp, Azoom, Sony Corp, Nikkei 225, Restar Holdings Corporation, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Primo Global and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

With Us (9696 JP): NSSK’s JPY3,237 Tender Offer
[Japan ECM/Index] Azoom (3496) Offering to Enable Move to TOPIX
Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business
Bank of Japan’s June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?
Restar (3156 JP) – Progress Required to Unlock Full Potential
Declining Number of Shares Has Just Begun, but Valuations Need to Rise for Market Cap to Grow
Primo Global Pre-IPO: Fairly Valued, Controlling Shareholders Rushing for Exit

With Us (9696 JP): NSSK’s JPY3,237 Tender Offer

With Us Corp (9696 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko (NSSK) at JPY3,237, an 18.0% premium to the last close price.
The offer represents an all-time high and concludes SwissAsia’s activist campaign to spill the Board at the AGM on 26 June.
SwissAsia and the founding family have provided irrevocables (39.81% ownership ratio), paving the way for deal completion.

[Japan ECM/Index] Azoom (3496) Offering to Enable Move to TOPIX

By Travis Lundy

On Friday 6 June, Azoom (3496 JP) announced it would conduct an offering (small issuance of new shares, some Treasury shares, larger selldown by the main shareholder).
That comes in conjunction with a transfer to TSE Prime from TSE Growth, which itself leads to a TOPIX Inclusion trade next month.
The company has decided to tack on a special dividend for this year, on top of growth and more liquidity. None of this is especially bad.

Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

By Brian Freitas

For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.

Bank of Japan’s June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

By Gaudenz Schneider

With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.

Restar (3156 JP) – Progress Required to Unlock Full Potential

By Astris Advisory Japan

Business scaling and transforming – Q1-4 FY3/25 results were in line with our expectations, with a relatively resilient underlying earnings trend YoY despite FX headwinds and difficult macro conditions.
Restar’s roll-up strategy contributed to a 9.5% YoY sales growth. Profitability declined due to a deteriorating sales mix in the Device business and intensifying competition in the power supply-demand adjustment market in Eco solutions.
Progress is evident for business transformation efforts to introduce high-value-added services, with the consolidated PCI Group rebranded as the IT & SIer BU (business unit). F

Declining Number of Shares Has Just Begun, but Valuations Need to Rise for Market Cap to Grow

By Aki Matsumoto

That’s good news when considering that the number of listed shares is declining, which means that the understanding of the cost of capital has spread to some extent among companies.
With many companies having excess cash on hand and being able to generate cash from restructuring their business portfolios, the number of listed shares is expected to continue to decline.
Since there are only a few companies that global investors can invest in, there is a need to strengthen profitability to increase corporate value to increase market capitalization per company.

Primo Global Pre-IPO: Fairly Valued, Controlling Shareholders Rushing for Exit

By Nicholas Tan

Primo Global (367A JP) is looking to raise up to $96m in its upcoming Japan IPO
It specializes in merchandising bridal jewellery, namely engagement rings and wedding rings.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 09

Daily Brief ECM: Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case
Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook
ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep
Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH), the world’s largest refrigeration and air-conditioning control component manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for a H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion.
Sanhua’s market share in the global refrigeration and air-conditioning control component market was 45.5% in terms of revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
The fundamentals are good, with the positives (refrigeration and aircon rising growth, stable margin, and cash generation) outweighing the negatives (automotive declining growth, US tariffs overhang).

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kelun Bio announced US$250 million placement, making it the largest follow-on offering in the biopharma industry in HK market over the past 12 months, but HK$331.8/share Placing Price is expensive.
SKB264 has demonstrated the ability to compete head-to-head with the world’s best therapies in TNBC and NSCLC. It is reasonable for Kelun Bio’s valuation to be higher than Akeso.
We recommend to buy when market value falls in the range of US$2.5-5.25 billion.If SKB264 fails to deliver good clinical data in future critical clinical trials, valuation would face pullback.

ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) might launch their IPOs soon.
On the placements front, Wistron Corp (3231 TT) launched its well flagged GDR, along with a few more deals this week.

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

By Nicholas Tan

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH) is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 09

Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism

By Angus Mackintosh

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment.
The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.
2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks up on Jobs Data and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Stocks up on Jobs Data
Japan Morning Connection: Meta’s $10bn Scale AI Investment to Buoy Sentiment for SPE

Ohayo Japan | Stocks up on Jobs Data

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks rallied Friday after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data eased slowdown fears
Fifty Japanese companies received activist proposals at June shareholder meetings, the highest number on record,
Takeda Pharmaceutical faces opposition from Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) against reappointing CEO

Japan Morning Connection: Meta’s $10bn Scale AI Investment to Buoy Sentiment for SPE

By Andrew Jackson

NFP beat sends yields higher, sending US homebuilders down, positive JP banks.
Big week for Renesas should also see more upside for Rohm and Fuji Elec with Auto/industrial inflection.
Capcom announced its latest Resident Evil installment at the SGF, but further upside looks limited.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 09

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 6th): Meituan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 6th): Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi
A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 6th): Jiangsu Expressway, Sichuan Expressway, CICC
HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 6th): First Financial, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 6th): Delta Electronics, Advanced Info Service, Krungthai Card
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 6th): Cathay Financial, Ctbc Financial, Fubon Financial
Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 6th): Sime Darby Property, Ytl, Genting Malaysia, Tenaga Nasional
Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 6th): Tencent, AIA, Kuaishou
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 6th): SK Hynix

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 6th): Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 6th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, CSPC Pharma, Alibaba, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 6th): Jiangsu Expressway, Sichuan Expressway, CICC

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 78.0% as of Jun 6th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, industrials, utilities and offset by real estate, information technology, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Jl Mag Rare-Earth, Jiangsu Expressway, Sichuan Expressway, CICC.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC, Fl2 Csop Hsi, Fi2 Csop Hsi.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 6th): First Financial, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated holding was USD1,016.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,467mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in First Financial, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components, Novatek Microelectronics, Jinan Acetate Chemical, Cathay Financial, TSMC, Ctbc Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Fubon Financial.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 6th): Delta Electronics, Advanced Info Service, Krungthai Card

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 6th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Advanced Info Service, Krungthai Card, CP ALL, Ptt.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 6th): Cathay Financial, Ctbc Financial, Fubon Financial

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated short interest was USD24.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Cathay Financial, Ctbc Financial, Fubon Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Catcher Technology, Novatek Microelectronics, Gigabyte Technology, SCSB, Ase Industrial, Inventec.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 6th): Sime Darby Property, Ytl, Genting Malaysia, Tenaga Nasional

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated short interest is USD362m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sime Darby Property, Ytl, Genting Malaysia, Tenaga Nasional, Petronas Chemicals.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 6th): Tencent, AIA, Kuaishou

We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 6th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 6th): SK Hynix

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated holding was USD571.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD829mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix (000660 KS).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 09

Daily Brief ECM: Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case
Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook
ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep
Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH), the world’s largest refrigeration and air-conditioning control component manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for a H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion.
Sanhua’s market share in the global refrigeration and air-conditioning control component market was 45.5% in terms of revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
The fundamentals are good, with the positives (refrigeration and aircon rising growth, stable margin, and cash generation) outweighing the negatives (automotive declining growth, US tariffs overhang).

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) Placement – Thoughts The Pipeline and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kelun Bio announced US$250 million placement, making it the largest follow-on offering in the biopharma industry in HK market over the past 12 months, but HK$331.8/share Placing Price is expensive.
SKB264 has demonstrated the ability to compete head-to-head with the world’s best therapies in TNBC and NSCLC. It is reasonable for Kelun Bio’s valuation to be higher than Akeso.
We recommend to buy when market value falls in the range of US$2.5-5.25 billion.If SKB264 fails to deliver good clinical data in future critical clinical trials, valuation would face pullback.

ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) might launch their IPOs soon.
On the placements front, Wistron Corp (3231 TT) launched its well flagged GDR, along with a few more deals this week.

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

By Nicholas Tan

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH) is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 09

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp

Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp